Note this is an Eagles writer
https://theathletic.com/1391305/201...weve-seen-from-kyler-murray-through-11-games/
By Sheil Kapadia 3h ago
With 6:35 left in Sunday’s Cardinals-49ers game, Kyler Murray kept the ball on a zone read, exploded past defenders, raced toward the left pylon and scored on a 22-yard touchdown.
The run gave the Cardinals a 26-23 lead, but they couldn’t hang on and lost their fourth straight game. Despite a 3-7-1 record, there’s plenty of reason for optimism — specifically as it pertains to Murray and the offense.
Through 11 games, Murray is completing 64.6% of his passes (15th) and averaging 6.9 YPA (23rd). He’s thrown 14 touchdowns with five interceptions and has also run for 418 yards and three scores. The Cardinals are not going to make the playoffs, but they’ll continue to try to build a strong foundation on offense with an eye toward 2020.
Keeping that in mind, below is an analytical breakdown of what we’ve seen from Murray so far in what’s been an impressive rookie season. Stats are courtesy of Sportradar unless otherwise indicated.
Accuracy
Next Gen Stats tracks a metric called completion percentage above expectation. It measures the probability of a completion on every pass, based on factors like where the receiver is on the field, his separation, how close the pass rush is to the quarterback, etc. Murray’s expected completion percentage is 66.1%. His actual completion percentage is 64.6%. The difference of -1.5% ranks 24th out of 38 quarterbacks.
There’s nothing alarming about that number. He’s in the middle of the pack. On film, accuracy has not been an issue. And it’s important to remember throughout this exercise that Murray is a 22-year-old rookie.
For the sake of context, I looked at rookie quarterbacks over the previous 10 years who attempted at least 100 passes. There were 43 of them, and the average completion percentage was 58.4%. If Murray maintains his current rate (64.6%), that will rank fourth best for a rookie QB over the last 10 seasons.
Bottom line: Accuracy is a strength and should only improve.
Decision-making
There are different ways to evaluate decision-making, but for our purposes, let’s look at negative plays. Murray has been intercepted on just 1.3% of his pass attempts this season. That’s ninth best among starting quarterbacks. And if we go back to the 43 rookies since 2009, the average interception rate is 3.1%. If Murray maintained his current rate, it would rank third best among that group.
Murray’s avoidance of fumbles has been even more impressive. He’s fumbled just two times. And keep in mind that Muray has had the ball in his hands for 446 passing plays — second most in the NFL. His 67 rushing attempts are third among quarterbacks. Among starters, only Drew Brees has fumbled less (zero), but he’s played in just five games. Fellow rookie quarterbacks this season have had big issues with fumbles. Daniel Jones has 13, and Gardner Minshew has 11.
One area to keep an eye on is sack percentage. Murray’s been sacked on 8.2% of his passing plays, which ranks 26th. But again, context is important. The average sack rate for rookies over the past 10 years is 7.2%. There is a process of learning where the pressure is coming from, whether it’s smarter to throw the ball away than extend a play, etc. And some quarterbacks with Murray’s athleticism can be successful even when they take a lot of sacks. Deshaun Watson has a worse sack rate (8.6%) than Murray this year. Russell Wilson (7.6%) is just below Murray.
There’s a tradeoff with quarterbacks who can keep plays alive. You get the spectacular plays that opponents can’t defend. And you get a bump in sacks. It’s a matter of balancing the two.
Where is Murray throwing the ball (distance)?
Kliff Kingsbury has baked in a lot of run-pass options (RPOs) and other quick throws into the offense. Murray has attempted 110 passes where the target is at or behind the line of scrimmage — tied for most in the NFL. These are high-percentage attempts (he’s completing 71.8% of them) and are really an extension of the run game. The thought is to get the ball out quickly into the hands of playmakers and take easy gains.
But one of the most aesthetically pleasing aspects of Murray’s game so far is his deep ball. He’s completed 45.8% of his downfield throws (20 or more yards from the line of scrimmage), which is the third-best mark among starters. Murray is averaging 17.1 YPA when he throws downfield, which is second only to Wilson.
Where is Murray throwing the ball (targets)?
One of the fun parts about the Cardinals this season is that Murray has rejuvenated Larry Fitzgerald. When targeting Fitzgerald, Murray is completing 72.4% of his passes and averaging 7.8 YPA. Fitzgerald is 36 and on a one-year deal, but he looks like someone who can still help Murray and this offense at least in 2020.
Christian Kirk has been the Cardinals’ second-most-targeted receiver. He had a huge game a couple of weeks ago with 10 catches for 138 yards against the Buccaneers and has 508 receiving yards on the season. Players such as David Johnson, KeeSean Johnson and Andy Isabella also have been involved in the passing game.
The Cardinals use 10 personnel (one RB, zero TEs, four WRs) more than any other team in the NFL. Murray has had 199 pass plays out of 10 personnel. The rest of the league combined has 203. But the Cardinals have struggled out of that grouping. Murray’s been sacked 8.9% of the time and averaged just 5.1 net yards per pass play out of 10 personnel.
The league’s most common grouping — 11 personnel (one RB, one TE, three WRs) — has actually worked better for Arizona. Murray is averaging 7.7 YPA and 6.7 net yards per pass play out of 11 personnel.
Sixty of Murray’s pass plays have come out of 12 personnel (one RB, two TEs, two WRs). There’s no other grouping that the Cardinals have passed out of more than 10 times.
Overall
The Cardinals have used tempo as a tool. According to Football Outsiders, no team has played faster (meaning time in between snaps) than Arizona. And Murray’s been an effective runner. Only Lamar Jackson (718) has more rushing yards than Murray (418) among quarterbacks. His 22 rushing first downs rank third among quarterbacks.
Arizona has had some game management issues, but that probably falls on Kingsbury more than Murray.
Through 11 games, the Cardinals have to feel good about their decision to move on from Josh Rosen and go all in on Murray. As a passer, he’s made good decisions, been accurate and shown great touch on downfield throws. He’s avoided negative plays at a high rate and made plays with his legs.
It’s a small sample, and the Cardinals have things to figure out personnel-wise on offense in the offseason. They also need to be much better on defense. But the start of Murray’s career has been everything for which Arizona could have hoped.
(Photo: Lachlan Cunningham / Getty Images)
Sheil Kapadia writes about the NFL for The Athletic. He previously covered the Philadelphia Eagles for The Athletic and for Philadelphia Magazine's Birds 24/7 site. Sheil also covered the Seattle Seahawks for ESPN. Follow Sheil on Twitter @SheilKapadia.
https://theathletic.com/1391305/201...weve-seen-from-kyler-murray-through-11-games/
By Sheil Kapadia 3h ago
You must be registered for see images attach
3
You must be registered for see images attach
With 6:35 left in Sunday’s Cardinals-49ers game, Kyler Murray kept the ball on a zone read, exploded past defenders, raced toward the left pylon and scored on a 22-yard touchdown.
The run gave the Cardinals a 26-23 lead, but they couldn’t hang on and lost their fourth straight game. Despite a 3-7-1 record, there’s plenty of reason for optimism — specifically as it pertains to Murray and the offense.
Through 11 games, Murray is completing 64.6% of his passes (15th) and averaging 6.9 YPA (23rd). He’s thrown 14 touchdowns with five interceptions and has also run for 418 yards and three scores. The Cardinals are not going to make the playoffs, but they’ll continue to try to build a strong foundation on offense with an eye toward 2020.
Keeping that in mind, below is an analytical breakdown of what we’ve seen from Murray so far in what’s been an impressive rookie season. Stats are courtesy of Sportradar unless otherwise indicated.
Accuracy
Next Gen Stats tracks a metric called completion percentage above expectation. It measures the probability of a completion on every pass, based on factors like where the receiver is on the field, his separation, how close the pass rush is to the quarterback, etc. Murray’s expected completion percentage is 66.1%. His actual completion percentage is 64.6%. The difference of -1.5% ranks 24th out of 38 quarterbacks.
There’s nothing alarming about that number. He’s in the middle of the pack. On film, accuracy has not been an issue. And it’s important to remember throughout this exercise that Murray is a 22-year-old rookie.
For the sake of context, I looked at rookie quarterbacks over the previous 10 years who attempted at least 100 passes. There were 43 of them, and the average completion percentage was 58.4%. If Murray maintains his current rate (64.6%), that will rank fourth best for a rookie QB over the last 10 seasons.
Bottom line: Accuracy is a strength and should only improve.
Decision-making
There are different ways to evaluate decision-making, but for our purposes, let’s look at negative plays. Murray has been intercepted on just 1.3% of his pass attempts this season. That’s ninth best among starting quarterbacks. And if we go back to the 43 rookies since 2009, the average interception rate is 3.1%. If Murray maintained his current rate, it would rank third best among that group.
Murray’s avoidance of fumbles has been even more impressive. He’s fumbled just two times. And keep in mind that Muray has had the ball in his hands for 446 passing plays — second most in the NFL. His 67 rushing attempts are third among quarterbacks. Among starters, only Drew Brees has fumbled less (zero), but he’s played in just five games. Fellow rookie quarterbacks this season have had big issues with fumbles. Daniel Jones has 13, and Gardner Minshew has 11.
One area to keep an eye on is sack percentage. Murray’s been sacked on 8.2% of his passing plays, which ranks 26th. But again, context is important. The average sack rate for rookies over the past 10 years is 7.2%. There is a process of learning where the pressure is coming from, whether it’s smarter to throw the ball away than extend a play, etc. And some quarterbacks with Murray’s athleticism can be successful even when they take a lot of sacks. Deshaun Watson has a worse sack rate (8.6%) than Murray this year. Russell Wilson (7.6%) is just below Murray.
There’s a tradeoff with quarterbacks who can keep plays alive. You get the spectacular plays that opponents can’t defend. And you get a bump in sacks. It’s a matter of balancing the two.
Where is Murray throwing the ball (distance)?
Kliff Kingsbury has baked in a lot of run-pass options (RPOs) and other quick throws into the offense. Murray has attempted 110 passes where the target is at or behind the line of scrimmage — tied for most in the NFL. These are high-percentage attempts (he’s completing 71.8% of them) and are really an extension of the run game. The thought is to get the ball out quickly into the hands of playmakers and take easy gains.
But one of the most aesthetically pleasing aspects of Murray’s game so far is his deep ball. He’s completed 45.8% of his downfield throws (20 or more yards from the line of scrimmage), which is the third-best mark among starters. Murray is averaging 17.1 YPA when he throws downfield, which is second only to Wilson.
Where is Murray throwing the ball (targets)?
One of the fun parts about the Cardinals this season is that Murray has rejuvenated Larry Fitzgerald. When targeting Fitzgerald, Murray is completing 72.4% of his passes and averaging 7.8 YPA. Fitzgerald is 36 and on a one-year deal, but he looks like someone who can still help Murray and this offense at least in 2020.
Christian Kirk has been the Cardinals’ second-most-targeted receiver. He had a huge game a couple of weeks ago with 10 catches for 138 yards against the Buccaneers and has 508 receiving yards on the season. Players such as David Johnson, KeeSean Johnson and Andy Isabella also have been involved in the passing game.
The Cardinals use 10 personnel (one RB, zero TEs, four WRs) more than any other team in the NFL. Murray has had 199 pass plays out of 10 personnel. The rest of the league combined has 203. But the Cardinals have struggled out of that grouping. Murray’s been sacked 8.9% of the time and averaged just 5.1 net yards per pass play out of 10 personnel.
The league’s most common grouping — 11 personnel (one RB, one TE, three WRs) — has actually worked better for Arizona. Murray is averaging 7.7 YPA and 6.7 net yards per pass play out of 11 personnel.
Sixty of Murray’s pass plays have come out of 12 personnel (one RB, two TEs, two WRs). There’s no other grouping that the Cardinals have passed out of more than 10 times.
Overall
The Cardinals have used tempo as a tool. According to Football Outsiders, no team has played faster (meaning time in between snaps) than Arizona. And Murray’s been an effective runner. Only Lamar Jackson (718) has more rushing yards than Murray (418) among quarterbacks. His 22 rushing first downs rank third among quarterbacks.
Arizona has had some game management issues, but that probably falls on Kingsbury more than Murray.
Through 11 games, the Cardinals have to feel good about their decision to move on from Josh Rosen and go all in on Murray. As a passer, he’s made good decisions, been accurate and shown great touch on downfield throws. He’s avoided negative plays at a high rate and made plays with his legs.
It’s a small sample, and the Cardinals have things to figure out personnel-wise on offense in the offseason. They also need to be much better on defense. But the start of Murray’s career has been everything for which Arizona could have hoped.
(Photo: Lachlan Cunningham / Getty Images)
You must be registered for see images attach
Sheil Kapadia writes about the NFL for The Athletic. He previously covered the Philadelphia Eagles for The Athletic and for Philadelphia Magazine's Birds 24/7 site. Sheil also covered the Seattle Seahawks for ESPN. Follow Sheil on Twitter @SheilKapadia.