What Remains to Be Done

[Cheesebeef]

Only 3 big name RBs haven't been signed. Lev Bell, Todd Gurley, and Leonard Fournette. Our inaction means that we'll have to draft a running back. I pray that Keim is smart enough not to draft one in the first round. That never goes well.

I'm not sure that it doesn't always go well. I just think their shelf life is pretty short.

Looking back at the last 5 years for first round RBs:

2015: Gurley (10), Melvin Gordon (15)
2016: Zeke (4)
2017: Fournette (4), McAffrey (8)
2018: Saquon Barkley (2), Penny (27)
2019: Josh Jacobs (24)
2020: Clyde-Edwards Hellaire (32)

Most of those guys outside Penny came out of the gate strong. But I don't know enough about the RBs in this draft if people see any of them at the same level as a Zeke/Barkley no brainer top shelf type.

 

[Solar7]

I'm not sure that it doesn't always go well. I just think their shelf life is pretty short.

Looking back at the last 5 years for first round RBs:

2015: Gurley (10), Melvin Gordon (15)
2016: Zeke (4)
2017: Fournette (4), McAffrey (8)
2018: Saquon Barkley (2), Penny (27)
2019: Josh Jacobs (24)
2020: Clyde-Edwards Hellaire (32)

Most of those guys outside Penny came out of the gate strong. But I don't know enough about the RBs in this draft if people see any of them at the same level as a Zeke/Barkley no brainer top shelf type.

Considering we're in an "all-in" window, I don't think the limited shelf life should be considered a problem, either.

It's weird that we have posters that are worried about the value of drafting an RB because they won't be a 10 year fixture on our team, but are just fine with a roster packed full of 1-2 year deals with guys at the end of their careers.

 

[football karma]

"I pray that Keim is smart enough not to draft one in the first round. That never goes well."

taking a RB at #16 would make me crazy

trading down into the late 20s, picking up some extra picks and taking the top RB in round 1 wouldnt bother me

you have the player for 5 years of inexpensive cost control, you can franchise tag one more year and then move on

 

[DVontel]

I'm not sure that it doesn't always go well. I just think their shelf life is pretty short.

Which is why you shouldn’t go RB in round 1. The value just isn’t there.


This is more so a general question, but would you draft a player in the 1st round only for them to have 2-3 prime years at best? Or 5+ years?

 

[Stout]

I don't see them spending any more money on WR.

They don't have a lot of cap to spare, still lots of holes to fill elsewhere and WR is in decent shape in comparison.

Thus the angst that we signed AJ Green. Not necessarily that he's on the team, but the money spent is money that could have gone to fixing the bigger WR issue. Also, signing him as a #2 was a mistake.

 

[Solar7]

Which is why you shouldn’t go RB in round 1. The value just isn’t there.


This is more so a general question, but would you draft a player in the 1st round only for them to have 2-3 prime years at best? Or 5+ years?

If that player is going to have a dynamic effect on my team and we win a Super Bowl, 2-3 prime years is just fine. It's a lot better than watching an Andre Ellington type run for 660 yards all season.

 

[DVontel]

And look at all the RBs that @cheesebeef listed.

3 of them aren’t even on their original team.

2 of them never lived up to their draft billing.

2 are coming off of season ending injuries.

1 had a bad Sophomore slump.


The last 1 was just in unnecessary.



That’s a bad ratio. Just not worth it.

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

Give the $3m to FITZ and let him run those so-called T-end pass-catching routes. Problem solved.

I’m sure those routes alone will help Fitz DOUBLE his yards per catch average to replicate what Arnold did last year.

 

[DVontel]

If that player is going to have a dynamic effect on my team and we win a Super Bowl, 2-3 prime years is just fine. It's a lot better than watching an Andre Ellington type run for 660 yards all season.

How many times has a 1st round RB contributed to a Super Bowl ring in the past 10 years, Solar? Probably once? That’s also being on the same with the GOAT QB & HC? And hell, that same RB is ALREADY broken down.

 

[DVontel]

Keim loves to think he’s the smartest person in the room so I still wouldn’t be shocked if he went Najee or Travis round 1, though.

 

[Jetstream Green]

Considering we're in an "all-in" window, I don't think the limited shelf life should be considered a problem, either.

It's weird that we have posters that are worried about the value of drafting an RB because they won't be a 10 year fixture on our team, but are just fine with a roster packed full of 1-2 year deals with guys at the end of their careers.

This X 1000

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

And look at all the RBs that @cheesebeef listed.

3 of them aren’t even on their original team.

2 of them never lived up to their draft billing.

2 are coming off of season ending injuries.

1 had a bad Sophomore slump.


The last 1 was just in unnecessary.



That’s a bad ratio. Just not worth it.

Something tells me your breakdown is likely representative, or not far off, any collection of position players.

 

[DVontel]

Something tells me your breakdown is likely representative, or not far off, any collection of position players.

If we’re talking about 1st rounders then show me.

 

[juza76]

Keim loves to think he’s the smartest person in the room so I still wouldn’t be shocked if he went Najee or Travis round 1, though.

But the way he approached this free agency make me think even the smartest dude can't go rb in round 1

 

[juza76]

If we’re talking about 1st rounders then show me.

There are several called bust in every position, normally rb is an easy position to translate, there are several pass rushers drafted early who are outside the league or being just abysmal, same can be said about offensive lineman, defensive backs too
BTW even if drafting a RB present low risks we are not in the position to draft one rb early

 

[DVontel]

There are several called bust in every position, normally rb is an easy position to translate, there are several. Pass rusher drafted early who are outside the league or being just abysmal, same can be said about offensive lineman, defensive backs too

Scary thing is that the dudes I listed that aren’t even on their anymore, were drafted in the top 10.


I think it might be a long time before we ever see a RB get drafted in the top 15 again.

 

[Solar7]

How many times has a 1st round RB contributed to a Super Bowl ring in the past 10 years, Solar? Probably once? That’s also being on the same with the GOAT QB & HC? And hell, that same RB is ALREADY broken down.

Maybe not a ring, but getting to the Super Bowl:
New England (won)
Rams
Carolina
Seattle x2 (won 1)
Broncos (won)
49ers

7/10 Super Bowls in the past decade featuring a 1st round RB drafted by their team isn't half bad. I'm not going to go back and count, but I'd be interested in seeing the numbers as to how many teams made the playoffs with one.

And how many teams are starting RBs taken past the 3rd round?

https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/football/depth-chart/RB/

I count 8 unless we acquire someone.

James Robinson
Austin Ekeler
Myles Gaskin
Aaron Jones
Chris Carson
Raheem Mostert
Mike Davis (Falcons - imagine they'll draft a guy to start over Davis)
Chase Edmonds

Mostert and Davis aren't even from the teams that drafted them or signed them as UDFAs.

I'm not pounding the table for a 1st round RB, but I am pounding the table that we have to upgrade from Edmonds, and the only real pathway to do that where we stand right now is in the first two rounds of the draft.

 

[daves]

I’m sure those routes alone will help Fitz DOUBLE his yards per catch average to replicate what Arnold did last year.

If playing as a pseudo TE just removes all the pathetic WR screens behind the LOS from his repertoire, it might just double his yards per catch!
...dbs

 

[DVontel]

Maybe not a ring, but getting to the Super Bowl:
New England (won)
Rams
Carolina
Seattle x2 (won 1)
Broncos (won)
49ers

7/10 Super Bowls in the past decade featuring a 1st round RB drafted by their team isn't half bad. I'm not going to go back and count, but I'd be interested in seeing the numbers as to how many teams made the playoffs with one.

And how many teams are starting RBs taken past the 3rd round?

https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/football/depth-chart/RB/

I count 8 unless we acquire someone.

James Robinson
Austin Ekeler
Myles Gaskin
Aaron Jones
Chris Carson
Raheem Mostert
Mike Davis (Falcons - imagine they'll draft a guy to start over Davis)
Chase Edmonds

Mostert and Davis aren't even from the teams that drafted them or signed them as UDFAs.

I'm not pounding the table for a 1st round RB, but I am pounding the table that we have to upgrade from Edmonds, and the only real pathway to do that where we stand right now is in the first two rounds of the draft.

I meant to add with their original team. Marshawn was drafted as a Bill.

Broncos.....? C.J. Anderson was undrafted.

49ers.....? Frank Gore was a 3rd rounder. Are you just throwing out random teams?


So really, only the team with the GOAT QB & HC.




I told you in another thread that I’d be okay with a RB like JaVonte Williams in the 2nd. However, a RB in the 1st, especially at 16, is just completely off limits.

 

[Solar7]

I meant to add with their original team. Marshawn was drafted as a Bill.

Broncos.....? C.J. Anderson was undrafted.

49ers.....? Frank Gore was a 3rd rounder. Are you just throwing out random teams?


So really, only the team with the GOAT QB & HC.




I told you in another thread that I’d be okay with a RB like JaVonte Williams in the 2nd. However, a RB in the 1st, especially at 16, is just completely off limits.

Dumb mistake with Marshawn, forgot he was traded to Seattle.

Broncos - Knowshon Moreno. Edit: Not in the win, still in a Super Bowl.

Frank Gore - Definitely was thinking Willis McGahee vibes with the 1st round stuck in my head. Also my bad.

It still doesn't change the fact I don't want Keim reaching for need and drafting a bad scheme fit/4th CB when a Harris or Etienne might be dominant players, even if it's just for one contract. We can't afford to look 3-6 years down the road right now. Keim and Kliff are gone if they don't win, Kyler's getting a new contract next offseason in all likelihood, and all of this off-season's acquisitions outside of maybe Hudson will be gone in two years.

 

[DVontel]

Dumb mistake with Marshawn, forgot he was traded to Seattle.

Broncos - Knowshon Moreno. Edit: Not in the win, still in a Super Bowl.

Frank Gore - Definitely was thinking Willis McGahee vibes with the 1st round stuck in my head. Also my bad.

It still doesn't change the fact I don't want Keim reaching for need and drafting a bad scheme fit/4th CB when a Harris or Etienne might be dominant players, even if it's just for one contract. We can't afford to look 3-6 years down the road right now. Keim and Kliff are gone if they don't win, Kyler's getting a new contract next offseason in all likelihood, and all of this off-season's acquisitions outside of maybe Hudson will be gone in two years.

Depends how strong the class is. This CB class is strong, so absolutely go for the 3rd/4th CB. The value between the two is just way too steep.

 

[Solar7]

Depends how strong the class is. This CB class is strong, so absolutely go for the 3rd/4th CB. The value between the two is just way too steep.

If Keim and co. genuinely have the 3rd & 4th CB graded above the RBs, sure, no problem. If the 3rd and 4th guys are just the choice because we got jumped ahead of and didn't have a contingency plan in the past years/offseason, big problem.

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

If playing as a pseudo TE just removes all the pathetic WR screens behind the LOS from his repertoire, it might just double his yards per catch!
...dbs

Good point. I hadn’t considered that. Did Arnold get of those “plumb” plays?

 

[BritCard]

Thus the angst that we signed AJ Green. Not necessarily that he's on the team, but the money spent is money that could have gone to fixing the bigger WR issue. Also, signing him as a #2 was a mistake.

We could have had Kendric Bourne. Bummer.

 

[BritCard]

I’m sure those routes alone will help Fitz DOUBLE his yards per catch average to replicate what Arnold did last year.

Being covered by a safety might