Playoff my biggest concern - You won't like this.

SirStefan32

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Thanks! I do not have the time to understand the NBA salary cap in detail, who is out capologist on the board? When I look at the 2023/2024 cap, the Suns only have Booker, KD, DA, CP3, Shamet, Payne and Ish. Bird rights for Basley and Jock. Do the Suns need to make trades to make space for a player like JO? I can't imagine Jones will just fill out the roster with minimums. Also how do teams like GS and Mil and heck even NO hold on to their players if they are so far over the cap?

They can sign someone like Okogie with mid-level exemption and bi-annual exemption is available to them as well if I remember correctly. Outside of that, player minimums is all they will have.
 

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For a career .286 three point shooter who is hitting a career high .331 this year, this is a really bold statement.
Do you know what he shot from the corner last year on Minnesota when overall he shot 29% from 3?

Answer is 46.8%

He is shooting 44% from the corner this year - and that includes a really cold start. And those are all corner 3's, not just wide open ones.

It's not that bold.
 
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Treesquid PhD

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Do you know what he shot from the corner last year on Minnesota when overall he shot 29% from 3?

Answer is 46.8%

He is shooting 44% from the corner this year - and that includes a really cold start. And those are all corner 3's, not just wide open ones.

It's not that bold.
This is kind of getting off track. My main point was the only way to beat KD and Book in a series is 1) Hope they have an off series, not going to happen 2) Hope they get hurt 3) Swarm them or at least KD and reduce the amount of shots they put up and leave DA, CP3 or the third starter, which right now is JO wide open. CP3 is so clutch that even at his age and decline in twitch skills that would be playing with fire. DA is also is efficient inside, so the only rational thing to do is let JO beat you and hope he takes a lot of shots. I think 50% makes is a significant reach and would put JO in the greatest of all time shot makers in NBA history.

I do think Monty is going to adjust, perhaps instead of JO jacking up threes he drives and creates havoc because he is IMO the most physical player on the roster. I am pretty excited to see how it works out. Champagne problems! Better than Babby and Foamy collecting ever star's brother. :)
 
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Treesquid PhD

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They can sign someone like Okogie with mid-level exemption and bi-annual exemption is available to them as well if I remember correctly. Outside of that, player minimums is all they will have.
Noted. Then how would the Lakers or Clippers be able to sign Kai? Do NBA people just not understand how the cap works? Any sites that can explain the NBA salary cap in detail? Maybe I'll use openai. for this.
 

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I agree he is good defensively, but I don't think he has shown the ability to catch and shoot. He seems to have to be floating or coming off a screen to be effective. Also seems like he may not be coming back from injury.

But if he does, I would give him a shot if Okogie goes into a slump - but I don't think he will.

Shamet is at his worst when he’s coming off a screen and floating or moving during his shot. That’s his problem, is that he leans while shooting. The one he makes are where he goes straight up and down.
 
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Treesquid PhD

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Here is what I was able to get from openai, yes I know the 2021 data limitations. But it's still pretty good. When GPT 4.0 comes out look out baby!

General
Sure, I can explain how the NBA salary cap works in general. The NBA salary cap is a limit on the total amount of money that a team can pay its players in a given season. The salary cap is set each year by the NBA based on the league's revenue. For the 2021-22 season, the NBA salary cap is set at $112.4 million, while the luxury tax threshold is set at $136.6 million.

One of the key components of the NBA salary cap system is the concept of "exceptions." Exceptions are provisions that allow teams to sign players even if they are already over the salary cap. The most common exception is the mid-level exception, which allows a team to sign a player for up to a certain amount of money (currently set at $9.5 million for the 2021-22 season) even if they are over the salary cap.

Another important concept is "Bird Rights." Bird Rights are named after Larry Bird, who was the first player to benefit from these rules. Bird Rights allow a team to exceed the salary cap in order to re-sign their own free agent players. In order to qualify for Bird Rights, a player must have played for his current team for three seasons without being waived or changing teams as a free agent. When a player has Bird Rights, his team can sign him to a contract that exceeds the salary cap, up to a certain limit, without using any of their exceptions. This allows teams to keep their star players even if they are already over the salary cap.

A team can also be "hard-capped" in certain situations. When a team uses certain exceptions, such as the bi-annual exception or the non-taxpayer mid-level exception, they become hard-capped. This means that they cannot exceed a certain level of spending, even if they have Bird Rights or other exceptions available.

If a team is over the salary cap, they can still sign additional players using certain exceptions, such as the mid-level exception or the minimum salary exception. However, the amount of money they can spend is limited by the specific exception they are using, and they may be subject to luxury tax penalties if they exceed the luxury tax threshold.

Bird rights

If a team doesn't have Bird Rights for a player and they are already over the salary cap, the maximum amount they can offer to that free agent or any free agent depends on the specific exceptions they have available to them.

The most common exception for teams over the salary cap is the mid-level exception, which allows a team to sign a player for up to a certain amount of money, currently set at $9.5 million for the 2021-22 season.

However, if a team is hard-capped, their ability to offer contracts to free agents may be limited. When a team uses certain exceptions, such as the bi-annual exception or the non-taxpayer mid-level exception, they become hard-capped, and they cannot exceed a certain level of spending. For the 2021-22 season, the hard cap is set at $143.2 million. Q: Do we know the hard cap for 23/24?

So, in order to determine the maximum amount that a team can offer to a free agent if they don't have Bird Rights and are already over the salary cap, we need to know whether they are hard-capped and which exceptions they have available to them.

Q: Using the information above, can you provide to me all the types of exceptions that could be available to a team?> List them and the dollar amount you can sign a non bird right free agent for?

A: Sure, here are some of the exceptions that a team can use to sign a free agent even if they are over the salary cap:

  1. Mid-Level Exception (MLE): This is the most commonly used exception. It allows a team to sign a free agent for up to a certain amount of money, which varies based on the team's salary situation. For the 2021-22 season, the MLE is worth $9.5 million for non-taxpaying teams and $6 million for taxpaying teams.
  2. Bi-Annual Exception (BAE): This exception can be used every other year and is worth $3.7 million for the 2021-22 season. A team cannot use the BAE if they used it in the previous season or if they are hard-capped.
  3. Non-Taxpayer Mid-Level Exception (NT-MLE): This is a version of the MLE that can only be used by teams that are below the luxury tax apron, which is set at $143.2 million for the 2021-22 season. For the 2021-22 season, the NT-MLE is worth $9.5 million.
  4. Taxpayer Mid-Level Exception (T-MLE): This is a version of the MLE that can only be used by teams that are above the luxury tax apron. For the 2021-22 season, the T-MLE is worth $6 million.
  5. Minimum Salary Exception (MSE): This exception allows a team to sign a player for the league minimum salary, even if they are over the salary cap.
It's important to note that these exceptions have different limitations and can only be used in certain situations. Additionally, the dollar amounts for each exception can vary from season to season based on the league's revenue and the collective bargaining agreement between the NBA and the players' union.

Q: can you explain to me exactly with detail what the luxury tax apron is? please use the Golden State Warriors as an example.
Sure, I'd be happy to explain the luxury tax apron and use the Golden State Warriors as an example.

The luxury tax apron is a specific point above the salary cap that acts as a hard cap for teams that use certain exceptions. For the 2021-22 NBA season, the luxury tax apron is set at $143.2 million. Once a team's total salary, including any exceptions they have used, reaches the luxury tax apron, they are considered "hard-capped." This means they cannot exceed the luxury tax apron for the rest of the season, regardless of any changes to their roster.

Let's use the Golden State Warriors as an example. For the 2021-22 season, the Warriors have a team salary of around $176 million, which is well above the $112.4 million salary cap. This means they are considered "over the cap" and must pay the luxury tax if their salary exceeds the luxury tax threshold, which is $136.6 million for the 2021-22 season.

Assuming the Warriors use their full mid-level exception of $9.5 million to sign a free agent, their total salary would be $185.5 million, which is above the $143.2 million luxury tax apron. This means they are now hard-capped, and they cannot exceed the luxury tax apron for the rest of the season. The hard cap limit of $143.2 million would be their maximum total team salary for the rest of the season.

In summary, the luxury tax apron is a specific point above the salary cap that acts as a hard cap for teams that use certain exceptions. Once a team reaches the luxury tax apron, they cannot exceed it for the rest of the season, regardless of any changes to their roster. The Golden State Warriors are an example of a team that is currently over the salary cap and could be hard-capped if they use certain exceptions that push them over the luxury tax apron.

So the question I have is are the Suns going to be hard capped? If yes, then I think Ayton and Shamet are going to be traded and CP3 is going too, with his partial guarantee.

Q: Let's say a player making 2 million and is an unrestricted free agent with no bird rights and the team is not hard capped. If that player signs a one year deal for one of the above cap exceptions does the said team gain bird rights moving forward?


No, if a player signs a one-year deal with a team using one of the above-cap exceptions and the team does not have the player's Bird rights, the team will not acquire Bird rights for that player.
In order for a team to acquire a player's Bird rights, they must have had the player on their roster for at least three seasons, or have acquired the player's Bird rights in a trade. Signing a player to a one-year deal with an above-cap exception does not satisfy the requirement for Bird rights, regardless of the amount of money or the type of exception used.
However, if the player signs a one-year deal using the Non-Bird exception, the team may be able to offer the player a higher salary in the following season using the Early Bird exception, provided they meet certain criteria. The Early Bird exception allows a team to exceed the salary cap to re-sign a player who has been on their roster for two seasons, but only up to a certain amount (175% of the player's previous salary or the league average salary, whichever is greater).
It's important to note that the specific rules and limitations for the various exceptions can be complex, and teams must navigate them carefully in order to manage their salary cap situation effectively.

Openai ******* rocks.

Sources:

 
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Treesquid PhD

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Shamet is at his worst when he’s coming off a screen and floating or moving during his shot. That’s his problem, is that he leans while shooting. The one he makes are where he goes straight up and down.
I agree with this. He might be deadly a stright up catch and shoot corner three guy if he goes upwards and not at the hoop, also his shot is pretty but way too flat, it's like he doesn't understand basic physics, which as a shooter at the NBA level you would assume he has been playing since 5 years old, he would get coached up on this. Sometimes when he does put more arch on that ball he gets better results, being wide open may not make him rush. The tradeoff is his defense is not nearly as impactful as JO.
 
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Treesquid PhD

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Btw, this should end the argument that JO can easily hit 50% from three from here on out.

Per openai.

According to basketball-reference.com, the league-wide three-point field goal percentage in the first year that the three-point shot was implemented (1979-80 season) was 28.3%. As of the 2021-22 season, the league-wide three-point percentage is 35.4%.

Using these numbers, a player making 50% of their three-point attempts would be in the 99.9th percentile for the 1979-80 season and the 100th percentile for the 2021-22 season. This means that they would be one of the best three-point shooters in the league for any given season, regardless of the era.

There have been a few players in NBA history who have shot over 50% from three-point range with a minimum of 50 games played and at least 5 three-pointers attempted per game. According to basketball-reference.com, during the 2021-22 season, only two players met this criterion: Georges Niang of the Philadelphia 76ers, who shot 51.5% from three-point range on 5.0 attempts per game, and Bryn Forbes of the Milwaukee Bucks, who shot 48.7% from three-point range on 5.1 attempts per game.

Historically, there have been several players who have shot over 50% from three-point range with a similar minimum number of games played and attempts per game. For example, during the 2018-19 season, Seth Curry of the Portland Trail Blazers shot 45.6% from three-point range on 5.0 attempts per game. During the 2015-16 season, Stephen Curry of the Golden State Warriors shot 45.4% from three-point range on 11.2 attempts per game.

In terms of the greatest three-point shooters of all time, there are several players who stand out. According to basketball-reference.com, the top five three-point shooters in NBA history, based on career three-point field goal percentage with a minimum of 1,200 attempts, are:

  1. Steve Kerr - 45.4%
  2. Hubert Davis - 44.1%
  3. Stephen Curry - 43.4%
  4. Drazen Petrovic - 43.7%
  5. Jason Kapono - 43.4%
It's worth noting that these rankings can change depending on the minimum number of attempts used as a qualifier, and there are other factors beyond three-point percentage that contribute to a player's overall value as a shooter.

JO
Josh Okogie is a shooting guard for the Minnesota Timberwolves who entered the league during the 2018-19 season. According to basketball-reference.com, Okogie has a career three-point shooting percentage of 31.8% as of the end of the 2020-21 season.

Based on this percentage, Okogie would rank in the 32nd percentile among all NBA players who have attempted at least 500 three-point shots over the course of their career. This means that 68% of NBA players who meet this criteria have a better three-point shooting percentage than Okogie.

It's worth noting that percentile rankings can fluctuate depending on the minimum number of attempts used as a qualifier and the time period analyzed, so Okogie's percentile ranking could potentially change in future seasons.

Source:


Sources:

 

Dr. Jones

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The league average from the corners is 38-39%. No matter how you slice it, you're counting on Okogie to become an above-average three-point shooter.

What's the average percentage from the corners while wide open? That is what we are talking about and I would guess that's above 40%. The closest I can find is the percentage from 3 when wide open and that is right around 40%. I suspect it is even higher when narrowing it to just the corners.
Tim Legler said to add 5 to 7% to any shooter's 3pt percentage when they are that wide open. He was referencing it last night during the breakdown of the Suns game so he was making this exact argument and I agree with it.


Call me crazy but Shamet if healthy, should be the 5th guy. He provides decent shooting and defense for the 5th guy and can play pg from time to time.
100% this. I'm not totally sold on it, but he can make corner threes. And we have a ton of guys to filter through (Lee, Ish, Shamet, Josh, Torrey, Ross) when someone has an off night based on matchups.
Do you know what he shot from the corner last year on Minnesota when overall he shot 29% from 3?

Answer is 46.8%

He is shooting 44% from the corner this year - and that includes a really cold start. And those are all corner 3's, not just wide open ones.

It's not that bold.
Agreed.

I do think Monty needs to have a bit quicker trigger though. Depending on the size of the other team, we have a metric crap ton of options for that shooter.
 

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Tim Legler said to add 5 to 7% to any shooter's 3pt percentage when they are that wide open. He was referencing it last night during the breakdown of the Suns game so he was making this exact argument and I agree with it.

Oh, well if Tim Legler said so, that settles it. Glad I don't have to hunt down the statistics that I know are out there. In fact, now we know that keeping statistics is a waste of time, because we can always ask someone like Tim Legler what their subjective impression is.
 

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Oh, well if Tim Legler said so, that settles it. Glad I don't have to hunt down the statistics that I know are out there. In fact, now we know that keeping statistics is a waste of time, because we can always ask someone like Tim Legler what their subjective impression is.
Wow. Snarky.

He played in the league and his statements were already backed up (I think) by data. I was just putting a dot on the "i" if you will.

I would also add that when I played in high school..... I preferred to be unguarded versus being guarded. I'm guessing many would actually.
 

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Wow. Snarky.

He played in the league and his statements were already backed up (I think) by data. I was just putting a dot on the "i" if you will.

I know he's a former player, but, if we are being honest, we would acknowledge that statistical analysis is not generally a strong suit of former NBA players. It would be nice to know if his claim was backed up by data. In the olden days, that's the kind of thing a journalist would share for the sake of credibility, but I'm dating myself.

Anyway, it's fine. No one wants what I'm selling and I need a reminder of that from time to time.
 
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Treesquid PhD

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Oh, well if Tim Legler said so, that settles it. Glad I don't have to hunt down the statistics that I know are out there. In fact, now we know that keeping statistics is a waste of time, because we can always ask someone like Tim Legler what their subjective impression is.
We should ask John Sunvold he was fantastic in Tecmo NBA basketball LMOA
 
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Treesquid PhD

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As a season ticket holder me and my son show up early to watch warm ups. If you get the chance to go to a game, skip the beers and food and show up 90 mins early and watch NBA players shooting uncontested. Yes, they are being spotted with no movement, They are going through a routine too, and probably wearing headphones to reduce noise but almost an NBA player is going to drill a significant amount of threes.

1. Dario, drilling open threes
2. Payne, amazing in warm ups
3. Mikal was a pleasure to watch I never counted but the guy was 75 to 80 percent during pre game warm ups.

Ayton - well if you don't like him, he shows up takes a few dribbles (poorly) and does some spins and shots floaters from the free throw line for maybe 5 mins, then proceeds to launch half court granny shots for 15 minuets.

I can't wait to watch KD work pregame.
 
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Treesquid PhD

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I know he's a former player, but, if we are being honest, we would acknowledge that statistical analysis is not generally a strong suit of former NBA players. It would be nice to know if his claim was backed up by data. In the olden days, that's the kind of thing a journalist would share for the sake of credibility, but I'm dating myself.

Anyway, it's fine. No one wants what I'm selling and I need a reminder of that from time to time.
Since you unblocked me, I am buying your analysis, forgive me I was only 18 in 2005.
 

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If we could mold Okogie as a pg, a distributing pg, and a defensive specialist, that would be interesting. Several here have noted that he does have some pg skills. He would be in a Jason Kidd role then (not that level of course, just types of skills).
Holiday would be another role model for him. Defensively he is already there. Shooting touch needs a lot of improvement, and the back to basket type one-on-one game. With time, a poorman's Holiday
 

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Btw, this should end the argument that JO can easily hit 50% from three from here on out.
Yes, it should put an end to what Proximo seemed to be saying but in actuality, he said something quite different. His claim was that Okogie would make 50% of his open corner 3's on more nights than not. That's a much lower bar and one the player might well be able to cross.
 

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Thanks! I do not have the time to understand the NBA salary cap in detail, who is out capologist on the board? When I look at the 2023/2024 cap, the Suns only have Booker, KD, DA, CP3, Shamet, Payne and Ish. Bird rights for Basley and Jock. Do the Suns need to make trades to make space for a player like JO? I can't imagine Jones will just fill out the roster with minimums. Also how do teams like GS and Mil and heck even NO hold on to their players if they are so far over the cap?
One thought is to clear some salary to below the luxary tax limit, which way we get the 11mil mid level to use. Send DA+Shamet to Pacers for Turner or to Nets for Claxton + Finnyl-Smith, + picks, for example may save up to 20mil.
 

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Oh, well if Tim Legler said so, that settles it. Glad I don't have to hunt down the statistics that I know are out there. In fact, now we know that keeping statistics is a waste of time, because we can always ask someone like Tim Legler what their subjective impression is.

Legler is an actual analyst, compared to other guys like Shaq and Perkins.
 

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Do you know what he shot from the corner last year on Minnesota when overall he shot 29% from 3?

Answer is 46.8%

He is shooting 44% from the corner this year - and that includes a really cold start. And those are all corner 3's, not just wide open ones.

It's not that bold.
Hat was the sample size of that 46.8%? Something tells me it was insignificant. And the leap from 44% to 50% is enormous. It’s pretty damn bold.
 
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