Playoff my biggest concern - You won't like this.

JCSunsfan

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I don't disagree. JO has significant skills on the defensive end that are extremely Holiday like. My main concern is KD getting more than 17 shots at the efficiency he provides. I do really like JO, but I don't think he should be taking 13 shots per game and definitely not 8 to 10 threes. I do not know what he is being told internal, probably take the open shot! But then again I am just looking at it from the opponent, swarm KD and Book let CP3 and JO shoot. That's the only way you beat the Suns.
If we could mold Okogie as a pg, a distributing pg, and a defensive specialist, that would be interesting. Several here have noted that he does have some pg skills. He would be in a Jason Kidd role then (not that level of course, just types of skills).
 
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Treesquid PhD

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Unfortunately, we had to trade the perfect guy in Mikal, I actually think JO is better at physical defense than Mikail (Not better overall but more physical), but there is no way in hell Kidd leaves Mikal wide open in the corner. He probably, shifts to let Ayton shoot midranges and hopes he gets cold.
 
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Treesquid PhD

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If we could mold Okogie as a pg, a distributing pg, and a defensive specialist, that would be interesting. Several here have noted that he does have some pg skills. He would be in a Jason Kidd role then (not that level of course, just types of skills).
I completely agree, I think JO will get a lot better in the offseason, if he could be Jrue light entering his prime sign me up for that. I am just not confident the perfect role for him is catch and shoot corner threes on offense this season.
 

Muggz

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Defense? We don't need no stinking defense! Give the ball to KD or Book and get out of the way!
If the other team plays defense. Give the ball to KD or Book and get out of the way!
I they go at CP3 to hard. Give the ball to KD or Book and get out of the way!
If KD and Book are on the bench. Give the ball to DA and pray!

We need a shooter Is D lee a liability on defense or something? Isn't he a really good shooter?
 

sdscard4

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We don't know what happened there. There is no indication that it is Monty that dumped Jae. if you do have info, I would love to hear it.
Wasn't there a report Monty sent Jae home? Regardless you probably have to include him in the trade anyways. He's just the perfect player to knock down them 3s
 

AzStevenCal

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Only teams that worry me are Golden State and Milwaukee. The Dubs are the Champs and can flick that switch. Milwaukee is so damn good. Will be interesting. I'm just glad we're in the same sentence as these 2
Every team worries me but especially our own. If we can stay healthy we have a chance against anyone but I wouldn't make us prohibitive favorites in any series we're likely to see.

Durant and Booker are probably the best duo in the league but DA is inconsistent, CP3 is very exploitable, we don't have a true 5th starter, we're a little light on talent off the bench and since Willie moved on we appear to have been outcoached on many occasions.
 

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I don't disagree. JO has significant skills on the defensive end that are extremely Holiday like. My main concern is KD getting more than 17 shots at the efficiency he provides. I do really like JO, but I don't think he should be taking 13 shots per game and definitely not 8 to 10 threes. I do not know what he is being told internal, probably take the open shot! But then again I am just looking at it from the opponent, swarm KD and Book let CP3 and JO shoot. That's the only way you beat the Suns.
When you have DA, Paul, KD and Book as the other 4 on the floor, you HAVE to be able to hit your 3s. Anyone who plays with that group must be able to. That guy will be open whenever they are on the floor with him. He only took 13 shots is because the defense was allowing him to. And you know Monty, he always tells his guys to shoot if they have the shot. It's Monty's job to adjust.
 

Muggz

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Every team worries me but especially our own. If we can stay healthy we have a chance against anyone but I wouldn't make us prohibitive favorites in any series we're likely to see.

Durant and Booker are probably the best duo in the league but DA is inconsistent, CP3 is very exploitable, we don't have a true 5th starter, we're a little light on talent off the bench and since Willie moved on we appear to have been outcoached on many occasions.
Same, the health factor scares the crap out of me. But we do have 3.5 years of KD.
I know we all want the chip right now but to be honest with the team the way it is it gonna be an uphill battle, we need to find a rock solid 5th or someone to step up.
The last thing we want is to still be looking when the playoffs come around. Good thing is we have what 17 games left to figure it out.
Fingers crossed
 

JCSunsfan

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Wasn't there a report Monty sent Jae home? Regardless you probably have to include him in the trade anyways. He's just the perfect player to knock down them 3s
I guess so. I would have loved to have Cam Johnson still on this team. He would be taking those shots at the end of the game instead of Ish. Imagine that. Oh well, didn't happen, probably couldn't have happened.
 

JCSunsfan

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Wasn't there a report Monty sent Jae home? Regardless you probably have to include him in the trade anyways. He's just the perfect player to knock down them 3s
If there was a report about Monty sending Jae home, I missed it.
 

elindholm

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Actually almost everyone does better from the corners, just look at the stats - it is extremely rare someone does not shoot better from the corner.

The league average is better from the corners, but it's easy to find counterexamples.

Okogie is one: https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask/josh-okogie-shot-chart He shoots well from only one of the five general stations, the angle right. (He's 2-of-3 from straight on, too small a sample to tell us anything.) He's below average in each corner.

For that matter, Booker is above average from the left corner and left angle, but far below average from the right corner. https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask/devon-booker-shot-chart So it's not just distance. Different players are going to be more or less comfortable with different looks.
 

elindholm

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Ok, maybe 50 is a slightly bold statement - I rounded up.

Of open corner 3's over 40% is highly likely
The league average from the corners is 38-39%. No matter how you slice it, you're counting on Okogie to become an above-average three-point shooter.
 

GatorAZ

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This would be a better conversation to have after more than 3 games. Especially regarding KD’s shot attempts…. I doubt he wants to come in and start firing away while alienating teammates. His deferring to Book, at least right away, shows how smart he is.

Still most worried about CP3. I went from loving him the last two years to hating the way he plays. I can’t really see him being effective in the finals vs Holiday or Smart.
 

CardsSunsDbacks

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The league average from the corners is 38-39%. No matter how you slice it, you're counting on Okogie to become an above-average three-point shooter.
What's the average percentage from the corners while wide open? That is what we are talking about and I would guess that's above 40%. The closest I can find is the percentage from 3 when wide open and that is right around 40%. I suspect it is even higher when narrowing it to just the corners.
 

elindholm

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What's the average percentage from the corners while wide open? That is what we are talking about and I would guess that's above 40%. The closest I can find is the percentage from 3 when wide open and that is right around 40%. I suspect it is even higher when narrowing it to just the corners.

I'm not going to dive into those numbers, so I'll take your word for it. I agree that percentages should be higher when someone is wide open. On the other hand, Okogie hasn't ever been a top offensive option, so I would think that most of his attempts are already open. I could be wrong about that.

I'll just say that if the Suns' chances rest on Okogie making half of his wide-open corner threes, I think they're in trouble.
 

Phrazbit

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I'm not going to dive into those numbers, so I'll take your word for it. I agree that percentages should be higher when someone is wide open. On the other hand, Okogie hasn't ever been a top offensive option, so I would think that most of his attempts are already open. I could be wrong about that.

I'll just say that if the Suns' chances rest on Okogie making half of his wide-open corner threes, I think they're in trouble.

Up until the last month or so, Okogie has spent his career looking like the offensive player we saw yesterday.

I suspect that you are correct, most of Okogie's shots are likely open looks, teams like to dare 28% 3pt shooters to shoot.

But he also was stuck in Minnesota, I think we're quite a bit better than the Wolves when it comes to setting guys up to succeed.
 

CardsSunsDbacks

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I'm not going to dive into those numbers, so I'll take your word for it. I agree that percentages should be higher when someone is wide open. On the other hand, Okogie hasn't ever been a top offensive option, so I would think that most of his attempts are already open. I could be wrong about that.

I'll just say that if the Suns' chances rest on Okogie making half of his wide-open corner threes, I think they're in trouble.
I have no doubt that teams have been giving him space, but it's not like he has been getting left wide open to the extent that he has since we got KD. He is getting looks right now where he can literally take his sweet time to get the shot off. Also, we don't need him to make 50% of those, but simply anywhere near 40% on those attempts and teams will be forced to pay attention to him.
 

Bufalay

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If Okogie can make 30% on 3's the Suns will be fine.

If he makes 40% then Suns will sweep the playoffs.

If he makes 20% they should bench him for Lee, Shamet or Craig. Ross and Warren suck too much on defense. I don't know what to make of Ish, he's very inconsistent.
 
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Treesquid PhD

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No it's not. The suns have a 6 million dollar exception - but otherwise the only contracts they can offer are minimum salary contracts. Cam is going to get a lot more then 6 million. Most likely so is Okogie, so we are probably going to lose him as well.
Thanks! I do not have the time to understand the NBA salary cap in detail, who is out capologist on the board? When I look at the 2023/2024 cap, the Suns only have Booker, KD, DA, CP3, Shamet, Payne and Ish. Bird rights for Basley and Jock. Do the Suns need to make trades to make space for a player like JO? I can't imagine Jones will just fill out the roster with minimums. Also how do teams like GS and Mil and heck even NO hold on to their players if they are so far over the cap?
 

95pro

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Call me crazy but Shamet if healthy, should be the 5th guy. He provides decent shooting and defense for the 5th guy and can play pg from time to time.
 

Mainstreet

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Watching Kevin Durant game to game has been incredible, I was always a fan, but I never have the time to watch all teams or even all great players night to night. Because I am employed and have kids, I think we can all relate. Also, it's obvious that Book is benefiting from KD as he has been freed up to score at an elite level. Even though Book isn't as efficient as KD, he still is extremely efficient. The narrative from the media is about the bench, and while I do agree the Suns are a little thin on the bench, I am really concerned that there is a blueprint to beat this year's version of the Suns in a series.

It won't be easy, but this is what I am observing, I am not an advanced analytics basketball person, but I do follow the numbers. So, quants please chime in. What I saw yesterday from Dallas was actually a really good defensive game plan with bad defensive players.

I saw the defense collapse on Ayton, and shade KD, while essentially letting Booker get his one on one. KD is a true shooting efficiency monster. I read that his true shoot was close to or at 80% in three games, which is mind blowing. But I did really like what Jason Kidd did. Not only did he collapse on Ayton but he also left the corner threes uncontested. Normally this would be a death blow because uncontested NBA corner threes are the best three point shot one can get. However, as much flowers as Josh Okogie gets with his hustle and rightfully so, he is a terrible shooter. I was quickly reminded by a friend that he that he went 5 for 10 vs. Chicago, which is correct. However, I went back and watched the looks he is getting and in the games that KD and Book are playing in Okogie's shots are not only uncontested, but they are also completely wide open.

Okogie's three-point shooting over his career is sub 30% this season it's above 32%. However, since he has been starting his volume of shotting is significant.

From game 57 to game 65 (since he has been starting) his median volume is 13 shots per game. Since KD has been playing his median shots per game has been 13 shots per game. In the small 3 game sample size Okogie has shot 23.2% from the field. In the three games as the starter and corner three D player he is averaging .25% I don't have the data, but I do believe almost all of those have been from the corner. What's concerning to me is that these shots are wide open and not contested, so it's bad. I know I am treading in emotional waters with a budding fan favorite, but this is clearly the path I would choose if I was defensing the Suns.

Kevin Durant in his three games has been 10/15, 7/10 and 12/17. Despite the unbelievable efficiency look at the median volume of shots KD is taking, it's less than Okogie, teams are just doubling and tripling Durant while leaving Okogie wide open. Now I don't think JO will continue to shoot this poorly from the corner, but he isn't going to shoot 5/10 on a regular basis either. What is important is that you want Josh Okogie to shoot 13 to 15 of the team 80 to 90 shots and limit the amount of looks KD gets. I also noticed that Okogie doesn't have the highest offensive basketball IQ and seems a bit lost and rightly encouraged to take a wide ass open corner threes. However, if I am Denver or a Golden State, I am more than happy to let Okogie take 13 shots per game and make at best 38 to 40 percent of those shots.

In the game yesterday Monty flat out benched Okogie, I think he played just a few second in the fourth quarter and he is a starter. Monty is smart enough to know that teams will see what Dallas did and replicate it. That's why JO was pulled, for all the grit and defensive talent he has, he is a bottom tier shooter and not deserving of a starting role or a crunch time role. The problem is your options are bad. Ish had a great game but I don't expect Ish to do that consistently, Ross is a bad defensive player, and Criag is streaky as well. I wouldn't be surprised to see Criag get the starts as the season closes.

What does this mean? It means that teams will continue to live with JO's high volume shooting in the corner and just try to limit with numbers the amount of looks KD and Booker can get, while collapsing on DA. It also means CP3 has to fill that shooting void on his clear decline (no shade, he is almost 38, respect).

It also means that JO as a fan favorite is also the 2023 version of fourth quarter Frank, fun player, fan favorite but not exactly the guy you want taking a significant percentage of shots. Now this is only for this season, JO is only 24 and if he is smart he shoots about 25,000 corner threes in the offseason. But for this season it's a gap I don't think that can be solved. Perhaps Shamet can fill the void, I am confident that he would hit a higher percentage of wide open corner threes than JO, the number do bear that out.

What else? JO might not want to be something he not, a shot maker. He is an above average driver and if he takes advantage of that it could free up looks for Ayton, Book and DA cutting or lead to fouls. I just don't think Monty hoping he solves his shooting can be fixed this season.

I also know this is a work in progress, but don't be surprised if Monty inserts Shamet into that late game close out lineup and CP3 ends up taking more of those threes. If JO wants to really make it in this league long term he needs to take his shooting more seriously, if Ish can put in the work Josh needs to as well. This could result in millions of dollars for him, I hope he gets there. But for this season and these playoff, I am leaving Josh wide open and taking my chances.

Yes, Okogie is not a good shooter, especially from three, although he can get hot in a game and fool those watching into believing he is. He does shoot better under game conditions. Perhaps he is one of those players who lives for the big moment.

I've watched him shoot in practice video, His shot looks terrible at times.

The Suns need to find a way to bring him in the game as a defensive specialist and see where his game takes him on that particular day.
 

Proximo

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Call me crazy but Shamet if healthy, should be the 5th guy. He provides decent shooting and defense for the 5th guy and can play pg from time to time.
I agree he is good defensively, but I don't think he has shown the ability to catch and shoot. He seems to have to be floating or coming off a screen to be effective. Also seems like he may not be coming back from injury.

But if he does, I would give him a shot if Okogie goes into a slump - but I don't think he will.
 
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