Could Curt and Gonzo be gone after this year?

Lefty

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Got this from the Arizona Daily Star.

Jerry Colangelo's quotes went on and on, from one computer screen to the next. Some of the words were so powerful that they appeared to be illuminated.

"Step back," he said.

"Transition," he continued.

"Redo."

"Young turks."

"Down the road."

"Potentially."

"Young team."

"Build another nucleus."

"Young guys."

So now comes the inevi-ta-ble. Now comes the suffering. It is not unlike buying new furniture, sucked in because the first payment is delayed until next year.

After six years in the baseball business, the game's best-ever startup franchise faces its first payment on the furniture.

In a Tuesday interview with Scott Bordow of the East Valley Tribune, Colangelo said that the once free-spending D'backs will budget $55 million for personnel in 2005. Current payroll: $94 million.

So long, Big Unit. It's been nice, Gonzo. See you in Philly, Schilly.

This must be how it was in Edmonton when Wayne Gretzky's Oilers were upended by the bottom line.

Colangelo, the Diamondbacks managing general partner, insists he will cut payroll immediately, to $80 million next year, which almost surely means Curt Schilling will be traded for "young turks" and that the club will not be able to afford a middle-of-the-lineup free agent hitter.

The trickle down will be felt not just in the National Lea-gue West Division standings, but in every corner of the state. Interest in spring training will diminish. Television ratings will drop. Attendance will fall. The franchise's much-dreaded debut as a small-market team is upon us.

In the first six years of their existence, the Diamondbacks sold novelty, newness and winning. It was an overwhelming success. Now they will be forced to sell baseball.

Given the transient nature of baseball, the core of this Diamondbacks roster could change almost entirely by the time the 2005 budget takes force. Given financial restrictions, the most untouchable player on the D'backs long-term roster probably is rookie pitcher Brandon Webb.

After that, who? Stud second base prospect Scott Hairston, who is due to open for the Tucson Sidewinders next year?

Given the D'backs immense start-up debt, the cost of building Bank One Ballpark, the deferred salaries of Matt Williams and Jay Bell, the $32 million still owed to 40-year-old Randy Johnson, Arizonans have long been warned that the D'backs would not be able to shop in the same neighborhood with the Yankees, Dod-gers, Red Sox and Braves.

This will be like going from Saks to Ross.

Whatever the cost, the Diamondbacks deserve a little patience from those who feasted on their early success. Home games at BOB have averaged 71 percent capacity this year, almost 35,000 per game. No sign of trouble with those figures.

Here's the problem: A young, losing team loses more than ball games. It loses fans. If you do not have enough people in the stands, it sucks the life out of all revenue categories: concessions, parking, souvenir sales, suite leases, sponsorships.

If there is an upside to this discouraging news, it is that, for the first time, the D'back's farm system steadily produced useful players: Robby Hammock, Matt Kata, Alex Cin-tron, Chris Capuano, Jose Valverde. An otherwise forgettable season has been mitigated by a handful of "young turks" who appear to be capable major-league ballplayers.

What is not as promising is hearing manager Bob Brenly come off as encouraged that a bargain-priced ($3 million) outfielder like Danny Bautista is likely to be in the lineup full time next season.

Brenly last week said he believes Bautista could hit 40 doubles. Right. How many years will that require?

Given Colangelo's announcement Tuesday, the future of D'backs baseball could indeed be Danny Bautista looking for a double.
 

moviebuff316

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Danny Bautista is not the future of the D-backs ....Gonzo and Johnson just re-signed contracts last year ..I doubt they are going anywhere..I would bet Colangelo would want Randy Johnson to end his career here..Retire his number ..Hall of Fame as Az D-backs..He definately had his best years here. Gonzalez is a fan favorite..Probably will end his career here..Hitting .300 100 Rbi's with around 30 homers..I think thats good..Schilling definately pitching well..I don't know if he will return..or would be traded..I would love to see Schilling end his career here also..The questions for this Off-season is Matt Mantei..He has a player option...Raul Mondesi??? He definately has been pretty good as a D-back...D-backs should go after a Bat in the off-season..They definately have awesome pitching...Trade Dessens..Bring up Capuano/Patterson/Good (Whoever is most Consistent in spring)...They have an awesome bullpen..If they Can keep Mantei..They can have 3 good pitchers that can bring it too mantei..(Villareal,Koplove,Valverde) Eddie Oropesa is pretty suprising..I think he has streaks and when he gets on a role he can be very affective..They should get rid of Mike myers..He has over a 10 era in the BOB...Not good era on the road...Fans don't like him..Thats all I can think of right now
 

moviegeekjn

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JC is a businessman and KNOWS that it would be suicidal to dump marquee draws like Gonzo and RJ. They WILL be here next year!
 
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Lefty

Lefty

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Mantei is gone in my opinion. If he picks up his option he will make 7 million, which Jerry will not pay because he has Valverde and Brunney. I think a team like Boston would love Mantei. How about getting Trot Nixon from them?
 

DWKB

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Originally posted by Zona90
I think a team like Boston would love Mantei. How about getting Trot Nixon from them?


Where do you get the idea that BOS would love Mantei @ $7M?
 

mark1

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The people who think that somebody wants Mantei and his 7 million are dreaming IMO.
 
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Lefty

Lefty

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Originally posted by moviegeekjn
JC is a businessman and KNOWS that it would be suicidal to dump marquee draws like Gonzo and RJ. They WILL be here next year!

Agree. Jerry likes to win and even if he has to cut back some he will still make the club competitive. I don't see him doing what the Marlins did in 1998.
 

WizardOfAz

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FanOfTheGame1

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(Reposted from the dbacks.com board, for those that don't read it.)

I am a little confused over these payroll numbers. Do they include "deferred payments" or not? In other words, if they say the 2002 payroll was $114 million, does that mean they paid out $114 million of salaries in 2002, or does it mean that they had $114 million worth of contracts on the book for play in 2002 - some $$ paid out in 2002 and the rest deferred to the future?

I hope that question makes sense. When they say they have a $55 million target for 2005, I don't take them at their word. If Matt Williams and Jay Bell are still gonna be getting paychecks in 2005, then I want to see that upfront, so I know exactly where they stand, and exactly how much they mortgaged the future of this franchise.
 

unc84steve

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From the story:
Colangelo also said Wednesday that the team is considering a ticket-price increase for next season, though he would not provide details.
I don't get this.

If the club were winning, financing a high payroll & the BOB were filled to capacity, the team would justify higher ticket prices. Instead we're seeing all the opposite trends. Why not lower ticket prices to build loyalty to a younger team going through growing pains? The empty seats we already see should frighten D'back owners.

A model of just a few fans paying high prices sounds dumb.
 

AZZenny

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Curt on radio just said he hopes to be here next year, and expects to be - no one has talked to him about otherwise, and he would exercise his no-trade in most scenarios because he and his family want to be here. He will not accept a trade mid-season.

BUT - after 2004, he would like to test the Free Agent market, looking for a decent contract loaded with incentives - and would give Arizona a home town discount in the range of $8M a year but with a ton of performance incentives. (He said, "I'll make a little less money I'll never spend anyway, rather than a little more money I won't spend.")

JC - find other fat to cut. Take the discount. Make it work. I'll pay a buck more per game for my seats. (I probably will anyhow, I guess.)
;)
 

AZCB34

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Originally posted by AZZenny
Curt on radio just said he hopes to be here next year, and expects to be - no one has talked to him about otherwise, and he would exercise his no-trade in most scenarios because he and his family want to be here. He will not accept a trade mid-season.

BUT - after 2004, he would like to test the Free Agent market, looking for a decent contract loaded with incentives - and would give Arizona a home town discount in the range of $8M a year but with a ton of performance incentives. (He said, "I'll make a little less money I'll never spend anyway, rather than a little more money I won't spend.")

JC - find other fat to cut. Take the discount. Make it work. I'll pay a buck more per game for my seats. (I probably will anyhow, I guess.)
;)

Where is the other fat to cut though? I mean an incentive loaded contract is good if he never meets the incentives...but he won't agree to most of the incentives unless he thinks he can meet them. I just not sure where the other players to cut would be to make that happen...unless you are bailing on Gonzo. Don't get me wrong, the Dbacks need to try something to retain Curt but to get where JC wants to contract wise, he is the most realistic move.

As for Mantei, he will exercise the option (of course) and IMO, nobody will trade for that contract...unless the Dbacks pick up most of it which I am not sure how much sense that would make. In any case, I don't mind having him around next year. Who knows. Maybe he can get through the entire season healthy and be a full year contributor. There are alot worse things than that.
 

schillingfan

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Originally posted by FanOfTheGame1
(Reposted from the dbacks.com board, for those that don't read it.)

I am a little confused over these payroll numbers. Do they include "deferred payments" or not? In other words, if they say the 2002 payroll was $114 million, does that mean they paid out $114 million of salaries in 2002, or does it mean that they had $114 million worth of contracts on the book for play in 2002 - some $$ paid out in 2002 and the rest deferred to the future?

I hope that question makes sense. When they say they have a $55 million target for 2005, I don't take them at their word. If Matt Williams and Jay Bell are still gonna be getting paychecks in 2005, then I want to see that upfront, so I know exactly where they stand, and exactly how much they mortgaged the future of this franchise.
The 2002 payroll did not include deferments, it was salary for that year I believe, though I'm not positive. The $94 million figure for this year does include deferments. The actual opening day payroll was $80 mil and they did not take on salary, or very little as the Yankees & Jays picked up most of Mondesi's salary and the D-Backs are paying for Williams and Womack.

So when JC says that salary will be down to $80 mil next year, what he really means is that it will be down to about $65 mil.

The tricky part is that some salaries are going up and the team will only be shedding (for sure) Williams, Womack, Myers, plus some other strange salaries that didn't pan out, and hopefully Grace. But add in the increases to Gonzo & Johnson.

Math isn't my strong point, but you can go to ESPN.com and look at the salaries and they are there to see.
 

az240zz

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I don't think they would trade Gonzo or Johnson. They draw people. Schilling is another story. He states he wants to try Free Agency. There only a few teams in baseball that could afford him unless he takes an incentive laden contract. If he does that it is possible that he could stay here. He claims that his family is settled here and that moving them would be a major consideration. He says a lot of things so what do you beleive?

I think that we could see Finley, both Bautist's, Mantei, McCracken,Mondesi,Barajas,Dessens and one or two others on differnt teams next year. We have a very good nucleus of young pitchers allowing the team to let some veterans go.

What concerns me is the 2005 year. Will some of our young players contracts expire at the end of 2004. If so with Colangelo saying that a $55 million payroll is the target for 2005 could we lose some of these palyers??

Just my thoughts

Az240z
 
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Lefty

Lefty

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I could see Curt staying one more year. No one will pick up Randy's contract. The most tradable guys are the young ones.
 

schillingfan

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Originally posted by az240zz
Schilling is another story. He states he wants to try Free Agency. There only a few teams in baseball that could afford him unless he takes an incentive laden contract. If he does that it is possible that he could stay here. He claims that his family is settled here and that moving them would be a major consideration. He says a lot of things so what do you beleive?
Well let me see, one of the few teams that can afford to take on payroll is moving into a new stadium and still has money to spend. Coincidentally that team is the one team that Curt says he is willing to be traded to AND he just happens to own a house there. What do you think?

What concerns me is the 2005 year. Will some of our young players contracts expire at the end of 2004. If so with Colangelo saying that a $55 million payroll is the target for 2005 could we lose some of these palyers??
That you don't need to worry about. All the baby-backs will still be pre-arbitration through 2005. They don't have contracts that expire because the D-Backs own them for 6 years. As pre-arbitration they have to accept whatever the D-Backs want to pay, which usually isn't much above major league minimum. Virtual slave labor.
 

az240zz

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Hmmmm San Diego. That could be,especially with some of the moves they made as this season is ending. Though I would hate to see him in our division.

Thanks for update on how the contracts work thru the 2005 season.

Do you think that Colangel couldactually let this team become non competive? I don't. His record clearly shows that.

Az240z
 

AZZenny

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Colangelo has already said he expects a couple years of youngsters and transition before fans should anticipate a serious playoff-caliber team, so if you mean "immediately competitive" - he's thinking more to build a strong, youthful nucleus towards a competitive team, (think maybe present-day Suns - maybe he's learned a good lesson there) and you can't assume he'll complement it with that expensive "one big ______" (fill in the blank) until he feels that the inexpensive core group is really close. (I'm imagining 2006 or 2007 maybe. Meanwhile we watch Webb, Capuano, Valverde, Bruney, Hammock, Cintron, Kata, maybe Santos, Anspach, Hairston, Tracy, Overbay, Jackson, D-Antonia, etc. mature at BOB. I can handle that.)

But the real issue is how competent will Joe G Jr and his crew be at switching to some model along the lines of Oakland, or the Twins? I am a bit wary on that one, but we'll see. I'd feel better if they'd retain a consulting wet-blanket - to throw a dose of ice-cold statistics at the latest goofy trade or contract impulse.
 

AZ Shocker

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Plus fan support is down quite a bit as well.
Sure doesn't seem like it. I see Diamondback hats, shirts etc. everywhere. Kids, wives, girlfriends...everybody! Drawing nearly 35,000 fans per game is GREAT this year! It's been a boring season, losing quit a few games, but the D-Backs are well supported. It's Arizona's team baby! :)
 

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