Slow & Steady 2 Year Plan

[Mulli]

He was. In a move from 9th to 1st.

The problem is there aren't teams desperate to move into that position right now. Monti muffed the tank and here we are.

jUsT tAKes ONE team.

And you were against the tank before you were for it.

 

[kerouac9]

jUsT tAKes ONE team.

And you were against the tank before you were for it.

I was never for the tank because the current scenario was completely foreseeable.

 

[ASUCHRIS]

I get what you're saying, but it just depends on the position. The WRs on the 2023 All Pro Team were:

Drafted 17th overall (CeeDee Lamb)
Acquired via trade (Tyreek Hill, A.J Brown, D.J. Moore)
Drafted in the 4th round (Amon-Ra St. Brown)
Drafted 25th overall (Brandon Aiyuk)
Drafted in the third round (Nico Collins)
Drafted in the fifth round (Puka Nacua)
Drafted 7th overall 10 seasons ago (Mike Evans)

If there's a place where you can get very high-quality talent without expending a wealth of draft capital, it's WR and RB. If this front office has the stomach for it, and if they truly believe that Paris Johnson Jr. will develop into an elite (Regular Pro Bowler, occasional all-pro) player, the wise play is to roll over this asset into the future to maximize your chances for an above-average starter (with a mid-first rounder) or future picks.

The challenge is that if you keep doing this and those midround picks don't develop into at least average starters, you're stuck in nothing. But I completely get the long-term view that if you're hunting for premium talent, you use your high picks at premium positions -- Edge, DT, CB -- when they're available. If there aren't premium prospects at the positions you need (we have an OT and QB), then you collect and defer assets.

The "haul" folks are really forgetting that we traded the #3 overall and a 4th last year for #12, #33 and the 2024 1st and 3rd. I'd be surprised if we get more to move out of #5 this year.

Yes, many good WR's are found outside of the top 10, but many of the top HOF WR's have been high picks. MHJ is considered one of the best WR prospects in recent history and we have a massive gaping hole at the position.

If we choose to trade down and end up with Brian Thomas (and he's a bust), we'll be back to square one, and hoping again to fill a massive hole.

 

[Krangodnzr]

I get what you're saying, but it just depends on the position. The WRs on the 2023 All Pro Team were:

Drafted 17th overall (CeeDee Lamb)
Acquired via trade (Tyreek Hill, A.J Brown, D.J. Moore)
Drafted in the 4th round (Amon-Ra St. Brown)
Drafted 25th overall (Brandon Aiyuk)
Drafted in the third round (Nico Collins)
Drafted in the fifth round (Puka Nacua)
Drafted 7th overall 10 seasons ago (Mike Evans)

If there's a place where you can get very high-quality talent without expending a wealth of draft capital, it's WR and RB. If this front office has the stomach for it, and if they truly believe that Paris Johnson Jr. will develop into an elite (Regular Pro Bowler, occasional all-pro) player, the wise play is to roll over this asset into the future to maximize your chances for an above-average starter (with a mid-first rounder) or future picks.

The challenge is that if you keep doing this and those midround picks don't develop into at least average starters, you're stuck in nothing. But I completely get the long-term view that if you're hunting for premium talent, you use your high picks at premium positions -- Edge, DT, CB -- when they're available. If there aren't premium prospects at the positions you need (we have an OT and QB), then you collect and defer assets.

The "haul" folks are really forgetting that we traded the #3 overall and a 4th last year for #12, #33 and the 2024 1st and 3rd. I'd be surprised if we get more to move out of #5 this year.

I agree overall, but last year there wasn't a QB that teams coveted. And last year's draft was pretty talent poor.

As much as fans on this board are bemoaning missing out on Anderson, he wasn't viewed as a Bosa, Mack, or Garrett. He still isn't.

The top ten of this draft is significantly better than last year's top ten.

 

[kerouac9]

Yes, many good WR's are found outside of the top 10, but many of the top HOF WR's have been high picks. MHJ is considered one of the best WR prospects in recent history and we have a massive gaping hole at the position.

If we choose to trade down and end up with Brian Thomas (and he's a bust), we'll be back to square one, and hoping again to fill a massive hole.

Three WRs play at a time -- sometimes more. If Brian Thomas turns out to be Bryant Johnson or Michael Floyd, you can easily more on.

Hall of Fame players are by definition low-probability edge cases. You can make drafting Hall of Fame players a goal but it can't be your primary motivation. That's how you end up taking wild swings at guys like Zaven Collins and Isaiah Simmons.

 

[Krangodnzr]

Yes, many good WR's are found outside of the top 10, but many of the top HOF WR's have been high picks. MHJ is considered one of the best WR prospects in recent history and we have a massive gaping hole at the position.

If we choose to trade down and end up with Brian Thomas (and he's a bust), we'll be back to square one, and hoping again to fill a massive hole.

6 out of the 7 All Pro receivers last year weren't top 10 picks. It doesn't matter what happened in 1984. LOL

 

[Totally_Red]

6 out of the 7 All Pro receivers last year weren't top 10 picks. It doesn't matter what happened in 1984. LOL

And Anquan Boldin was a second round pick who thrived despite mediocre QB play.

Monti has to have a Rams-like ability to hit on day 2 or 3 receivers like the rams.

 

[Mulli]

6 out of the 7 All Pro receivers last year weren't top 10 picks. It doesn't matter what happened in 1984. LOL

You know what does matter? 2003 or whenever. Bryant Johnson and Calvin Pace.

Pwned.

 

[ASUCHRIS]

6 out of the 7 All Pro receivers last year weren't top 10 picks. It doesn't matter what happened in 1984. LOL

Completely ignore the fact that highly rated WR's since 2000 have been historically safe picks.
Fitz
Megatron
AJ Green
Julio Jones
Jamarr Chase
Mike Evans
Amari Cooper

Have there been misses in the top 10? Of course. But few with the pedigree and draft grade of MHJ. Not sure why you're referencing 1984 - totally relevant to the conversation. If Brian Thomas is a Bryant Johnson type player, you'll feel pretty bad about not drafting MHJ, especially considering our "talent" at WR.

 

[Mulli]

Completely ignore the fact that highly rated WR's since 2000 have been historically safe picks.
Fitz
Megatron
AJ Green
Julio Jones
Jamarr Chase
Mike Evans
Amari Cooper

Have there been misses in the top 10? Of course. But few with the pedigree and draft grade of MHJ. Not sure why you're referencing 1984 - totally relevant to the conversation. If Brian Thomas is a Bryant Johnson type player, you'll feel pretty bad about not drafting MHJ, especially considering our "talent" at WR.

 

[ASUCHRIS]

Three WRs play at a time -- sometimes more. If Brian Thomas turns out to be Bryant Johnson or Michael Floyd, you can easily more on.

Yes, you can move on, but you'll still have a gaping hole at #1 receiver and one less pick to fill it.

Hall of Fame players are by definition low-probability edge cases. You can make drafting Hall of Fame players a goal but it can't be your primary motivation. That's how you end up taking wild swings at guys like Zaven Collins and Isaiah Simmons.

How about just picking the safe guys at a massive position of need? Not everyone needs to be a hall of famer. (although if you're going to try and get HOF talent, it's best to be picking in the top 10!)

Which NFL draft slots produce the most success?

Here’s a deep dive of the draft positions that produce the most success historically, plus a look Hall of Famers picked outside the first round.

www.nbcsportschicago.com

 

[Mulli]

Ya they already have lots of other mid picks for mid players. Draft the blue chip generational possible can't miss when you can.

No one bought a Bryant Johnson jersey

 

[SECTION 11]

Ya they already have lots of other mid picks for mid players. Draft the blue chip generational possible can't miss when you can.

No one bought a Bryant Johnson jersey

I have a David Boston jersey. So, yeah.

 

[Mulli]

I have a David Boston jersey. So, yeah.

Jersey jinx strikes again.

 

[SECTION 11]

My brother got my wife a Leenart jersey for Christmas two years in a row.

 

[kerouac9]

Ya they already have lots of other mid picks for mid players. Draft the blue chip generational possible can't miss when you can.

No one bought a Bryant Johnson jersey

My dad bought me a Johnson #84 jersey for Xmas because they were sold out of Boldins.

 

[Krangodnzr]

Completely ignore the fact that highly rated WR's since 2000 have been historically safe picks.
Fitz
Megatron
AJ Green
Julio Jones
Jamarr Chase
Mike Evans
Amari Cooper

Have there been misses in the top 10? Of course. But few with the pedigree and draft grade of MHJ. Not sure why you're referencing 1984 - totally relevant to the conversation. If Brian Thomas is a Bryant Johnson type player, you'll feel pretty bad about not drafting MHJ, especially considering our "talent" at WR.

If you are just going safe, LB is the best pick in the first round based on going "safe".

Granted, I'm drafting Marvin if I'm Monti. He has enough premium ingredients to cook, he doesn't have to add truffles to the mix.

 

[ASUCHRIS]

If you are just going safe, LB is the best pick in the first round based on going "safe".

Great idea! That worked so well the last two times we drafted LB's high in the draft.

Granted, I'm drafting Marvin if I'm Monti. He has enough premium ingredients to cook, he doesn't have to add truffles to the mix.

Ok, so you're agreeing with me that we should take MHJ?

 

[Krangodnzr]

Great idea! That worked so well the last two times we drafted LB's high in the draft.

Right, just shows how dumb Keim is. He screwed the least bustable position to draft.

Ok, so you're agreeing with me that we should take MHJ?

Absolutely. Still doesn't mean there aren't other avenues that work too.

 

[Stout]

Yes, you can move on, but you'll still have a gaping hole at #1 receiver and one less pick to fill it.

How about just picking the safe guys at a massive position of need? Not everyone needs to be a hall of famer. (although if you're going to try and get HOF talent, it's best to be picking in the top 10!)

Which NFL draft slots produce the most success?

Here’s a deep dive of the draft positions that produce the most success historically, plus a look Hall of Famers picked outside the first round.

www.nbcsportschicago.com

Not to mention how awful the offense will be this year because of it.