Friday, December 17, 2004
Juniors getting to the point
By Chad Ford
ESPN Insider
The cream of the high school class of 2001 has already been skimmed off. Amare Stoudemire, Carmelo Anthony, Chris Bosh, Andre Iguodala are already in the NBA and look like they'll be all-stars for years to come.
However, the rest of the junior class remains surprisingly intact. Four defections this late in the game is rare. Of course, there's a reason.
"That class was pretty top heavy," one NBA scout said. "With the exception of Bosh and Stoudemire, there just weren't a lot of big men. Most of the really talented players left in the class are guards. That's a little disappointing, but there are some talented kids left."
How talented? Only the top three or four kids on the chart project as potential lottery picks, however there's plenty of first-round and second-round talent in this group.
Deron Williams, PG, Illinois
The facts: 6-foot-3, 210 pounds; 12.8 ppg, 6.9 apg on 43 percent shooting
The skinny: More and more scouts are claiming that the second best point guard prospect in the league is Williams. While Wake Forest's Chris Paul is getting tagged as the best point guard prospect since Jason Kidd, Williams is getting the rep as the player whose style and body most resemble Kidd's.
"Deron is a lot like Kidd in the half court," one NBA scout said. "They play the same way. They're both straight-line guys. Once he gets his hip on you, he's gone. Deron's not as fast as Kidd in the open court, but Deron can shoot. Jason can't."
Not everyone agrees. Some scouts think he lacks the speed and quickness to be a great NBA point guard. However, Insider's most trusted scouts feel that Williams playmaking ability, size, strength and floor vision make up for his lack of speed in the open court. Look for him to go anywhere between the late lottery to mid-first round.
The facts: 6-1, 200 pounds; 9.7 ppg, 7.7 apg on 45 percent shooting
The skinny: Felton is another one of the best "pure" point guard in the college ranks right now. He has blazing speed and a real feel for directing traffic. He's a great ball handler and can see things on the floor before most point guards can. He's an excellent athlete and has a nice, strong frame that NBA scouts love. He can be very explosive and plays with a nice flair.
Not everything is positive for Felton. He can't shoot off the dribble. At times, he struggles to nail even open jumpers when teams give him the shot. What's interesting is that Felton averaged 30 ppg as a senior in high school, so obviously he knows how to score. He just hasn't done it well during his stint at UNC. He's also an accomplished defender.
The comparisons with T.J. Ford are pretty obvious. If he were two or three inches taller, he'd be a lottery pick for sure. Right now, scouts think the late lottery to mid first round is probably where he'll be taken.
John Gilchrist, PG, Maryland
The facts: 6-3, 200 pounds; 14.4 ppg, 7.1 apg on 48 percent shooting
The skinny: Gilchrist has it all. He's tough, has a great NBA body and athleticism for a point guard, can score and pass, and has hit some big clutch shots for Maryland over the past two years.
So why isn't he ranked higher on the list? He's so much like like Stephon Marbury in style and attitude – that he's scaring off a number of scouts who feel that Marbury's style of play puts up great numbers, but doesn't win in the NBA.
"I'm not sure you win with him," one NBA scout who has had Marbury on his team told Insider. "His numbers look great, but you watch how he interacts with his teammates and it isn't too good. He gets way too negative to his own players and he too often gets caught up in his own game at the wrong times. The talent is there. I'm not sure about the head."
That report makes Gilchrist a little tough to project – lottery talent with a second round attitude. Figure that teams split the difference and he's a mid-first rounder.
Antoine Wright, G/F, Texas A&M
The facts: 6-7, 210 pounds; 16.7 ppg, 7.1 rpg on 58 percent shooting
The skinny: Wright seems to have rebounded from a horrific sophomore season. Wright looked like he was a lock for the lottery after an amazing freshman season for the Aggies. However, last season his numbers dropped across the board as he shot just 36 percent from the field and 29 percent from the 3-point arc.
This year, Wright seems to have regained his shooting stroke and his confidence. He handles the rock well for a 6-foot-7 foot player, he sees the floor well and just has an overall good feel for the game. Scouts still wonder about his head a bit after he fell apart last season. If he can continue to play like he has this season, scouts claim he's talented enough to be a lottery pick. Right now he's more on the mid-first round bubble.
Francisco Garcia, G/F, Louisville
The facts: 6-7, 200 pounds; 16.1 ppg, 5.1 rpg, 3.9 apg on 47 percent shooting
The skinny: Garcia appears to have helped himself tremendously this offeseason by gaining a little weight. He's obviously a gifted scorer and a top-notch athlete. He's a dead eye from long range and seems to have no problem getting to the basket at will. He's very quick and explosive.
Garcia's long, versatile and has a good feel for the basketball. He's a fabulous shot blocker for a swingman and also is a dead eye from the free throw line. Scouts believe his natural position is the three, but he also has the ability to play the two. The comparisons to Tayshaun Prince are pretty solid. He still needs to get stronger and work on shooting off the dribble, but most scouts now see him as a very solid mid to late first round pick.
The facts: 6-7, 210 pounds; 17.1 ppg, 6.3 rpg on 39 percent shooting
The skinny: After a scintillating start to the season, Carney has cooled off in the last week. That might be due to an enormous amount of tension right now in the program thanks to a three-way feud between coach John Calipari, Sean Banks and Darius Washington Jr.. Carney is a good kid that seems to be caught in the middle.
The 6-7 junior is the son of two track stars. Carney himself was the Indiana state champ in the high jump as a high school senior. Calipari calls him one of the best five athletes in the country, something you know will turn heads in the NBA.
"Just on DNA, you've got to love him," one NBA scout told Insider. "Both parents are track stars. He may be the best athlete in college basketball. On an up-tempo team he'd be really good. He's also improved his shooting in the mid-range game, which is why he's having such a big year."
So why hasn't he gotten more publicity? "He goes through huge spans where he disappears. He doesn't create his own shot. If he did, he'd be a lock for the lottery."
Look for Carney to get consideration as a late lottery to mid-first round pick anyway if he continues to play well. With his size, length, speed, jumping ability and three-point shooting ability, he appears to be the prototypical NBA small forward.
Rashad McCants, SG, North Carolina
The facts: 6-4, 205 pounds; 19.8 ppg, 3.5 rpg on 53 percent shooting
The skinny: McCants might be the most-talented junior in the country. He's obviously a gifted scorer and a top-notch athlete. He's a dead eye from long range and seems to have no problem getting to the basket at will. He's very quick and explosive.
But he, too, has some serious issues. Scouts believe he's much closer to 6-3 and don't believe he has the handle or the head to be an NBA point guard. His long arms and athleticism make up for some of those height issues, but not all of them. He's also a spotty defender, which certainly doesn't help his cause
"He's just so moody. He's up and down like a yo-yo. He's a talented kid who will be very tough to coach in the NBA," says one scout. "There's a history of these undersized scoring two guards in the league. Most of them don't make it. How's he going to handle adversity? From what I've seen, the answer isn't good."
McCants is also getting hurt from comparisons to another talented, undersized two guard from North Carolina – Joe Forte. Despite having talent, athleticism and the ability to score at will, Forte was a major bust in the NBA. Is McCants on the same track? He's a high lottery pick based on talent, but he's another kid with a second round attitude. Who knows who will take a shot?
Shelden Williams, PF, Duke
The facts: 6-9, 250 pounds; 15.9 ppg, 11.4 rpg, 3.6 bpg on 57 percent shooting
The skinny: Williams is one of the best rebounders in college basketball. He's a physical bruiser who works tirelessly in the paint. He's also one of the best, if not the best, shot blocker in the NCAA. While he isn't the most athletic guy, he is quick off the floor.
Could Williams be the second coming of Carlos Boozer? Scouts say that the work ethic and basketball IQ are there, but Williams lacks Boozer's scoring touch on the offensive end. He has terrible hands. If you watch him closely, he never catches the ball cleanly. That could limit his effectiveness on the offensive end.
Still, for teams looking for rebounding and shot blocking in the paint, Williams is one of the best options on the board. Look for him to be a late first rounder.
Nate Robinson, SG, Washington
The facts: 5-9, 180 pounds; 22.5 ppg, 4.4 rpg, 5.6 apg, 2.4 spg on 56 percent shooting
The skinny: Several NBA scouts are quietly saying that Robinson is their favorite basketball player in college basketball. When you look at his numbers it's kind of tough to argue. Right?
So why isn't Robinson atop our list of potential No. 1 overall picks? Size matters in the NBA, and Robinson stands 5-9 in shoes (according to official measurements at the 2004 Chicago pre-draft camp). The fact that he isn't even a point guard also doesn't help matters.
Still, that hasn't stopped scouts from drooling over the possibility of adding Robinson late in the first round. "He's the best finisher in college basketball," one NBA scout gushed. "He's almost impossible to guard."
Robinson put up impressive numbers last season, too. He was one of the better players at the Chicago pre-draft camp, averaging 11.7 ppg and ranking second in the camp in assists. In fact, he ranked No. 1 among all the players in the camp in athletic testing.
He measured a 43.5 inch vertical and ran the three-quarters court sprint in 2.96 seconds, a Chicago record. However, he couldn't convince one team to give him a promise in the first round, so he went back to school. That sounds like it's going to change this year.
"I'm not sure where he will go in the draft, but don't forget the 'wow' factor here," an NBA exec told Insider. "Every time he touches the ball, everyone holds their breath. He can sell tickets. Fans react to him. I think he's going to go much earlier than people think. If he's a mid-first rounder I wouldn't be surprised.
Right now he's a likely late first-round, early second-round pick, but it only takes one team to fall in love for him to go much higher.
Jarrett Jack, PG, Georgia Tech
The facts: 6-foot-3, 200 pounds; 13.3 ppg, 5.3 rpg, 5 apg on 61 percent shooting
The skinny: Jack is having another up-and-down year. That's not really the image you want to project if you're a point guard. He really knows how to run a team. He has good size and nice court vision, as well as an NBA body and athleticism. He's an excellent rebounder for a point guard. He's also a good defender who collects a decent number of steals.
Still, scouts worry that he plays a little out of control at times. His three turnovers per game are fairly high for such a natural point. He doesn't have great 3-point range on his jumper, and he struggles to shoot off the dribble.
With so many point guards ranked ahead of him right now, he's probably better off returning to school for his senior season unless he really breaks out during the second half of the season. Right now he's on the first round bubble.
Best of the Rest: Kennedy Winston, G/F, Alabama; Hassan Adams, SG, Arizona; Bracey Wright, G, Indiana; J.J. Redick, G, Duke; Sean May, PF, Duke; Torin Francis, PF, Notre Dame; Paul Davis, PF, Michigan State; Rashad Anderson, SG, UConn; Dee Brown, G, Illinois; Ike Diogu, PF, Arizona State; Justin Gray, G, Wake Forest; Jeff Horner, PG, Iowa; Kelenna Azubuike, G/F, Kentucky; Anthony Roberson, G, Florida; Tim Smith, G, Eastern Micihgan; Matt Haryasz, F/C, Stanford; Juan Jose Barea, PG, Northeastern; Brandon Roy, G, Washington; Craig Smith, F, Boston College; Carl Krauser, PG, Pittsburgh; Shavlik Randolph, F, Duke; Nik Caner Medley, F, Maryland; Matt Walsh, F, Florida; Jason Fraser, F, Villanova; Pierre Pierce, G, Iowa
Draft Cards
<LI>Pittsburgh's Chris Taft was a preseason favorite for the No. 1 pick in the 2005 draft. That might begin changing soon. Several NBA scouts told Insider that they were unimpressed with Taft after attending a series of Pitt games over the past couple of weeks.
Taft's numbers have certainly been suspect. Five players on the Pitt roster are getting more minutes than Taft. His rebounding numbers and field-goal percentage are down from last year. For the season, he's averaging just 12.9 ppg and 6.7 rpg. Those aren't lottery pick numbers. What's going on?
"I think he has a bad case of NBA-it is," one NBA scout said. "He just looks like he's going through the motions. Last year he had something to prove. This year, he seems like he's just trying not to get hurt."
Another scout said that he's concerned that Taft has put on some bad weight, which may be hurting his athleticism and explosiveness. Whatever the reasons, he's clearly found himself in head coach Jamie Dixon's dog house. Dixon has been leaning toward using Chevon Troutman (another player scouts really like) instead, because Troutman hustles and grabs loose balls.
His teammate, point guard Carl Krauser, says that Taft will get his minutes once he starts putting in the work again.
"I don't really know what's going on with that, I just know a lot of guys are competing hard, and maybe it's tough to get everybody the minutes they're supposed to have," Krauser said. "But I know with hard work, (Taft) is going to bounce back into the top three."
<LI>NBA scouts have been whispering to Insider for weeks that something was amiss at Memphis. All of them came away raving about Carney and cursing about Banks and Washington under the breath. Now we know why.
Calipari suspended Banks indefinitely this week for breaking team rules. However, there's more to it than that.
"He's been a cancer on that team," one NBA scout said. "He's a selfish player. Instead of reveling in the fact that he has more talent around him, he's gotten more selfish. He's a very talented player, the most talented guy on Memphis. But with his attitude, I'm not sure how you give a guy a guaranteed contract in the first round acting like he does."
Those observations, coupled with a checkered past for Banks, has torpedoed his NBA stock for the moment.
<LI>Our apologies to Duke guard Daniel Ewing, who mysteriously was left off our list of college seniors NBA scouts were watching. It was an accident, not an indictment on his pro prospects. To make up for the mistake, I asked one NBA scout, who is a Ewing fan, to break down his game.
"I think he has the chance to become an NBA point guard," the scout told Insider. "He's got all the physical tools and real knack for scoring. They question has always been his size (6-foot-3). He needs to make the transition to the one. I think he's made huge strides this year. He's shown that he's a good passer and makes smart decisions with the basketball. I think he could be a Gilbert Arenas like point guard in the pros."
Other scouts aren't quite as sure. They all love his athleticism, his ability to shoot off the dribble, and his three-point accuracy. Ewing's numbers this year, 17.9 ppg, 4.4 apg, 46 percent shooting from three are very impressive. But can he make the transition to the point? Every scout has a different take. Unfortunately for Ewing, that's the difference between Ewing going in the mid to late first round and the second round.
<LI>On the other side of the pond, several top prospects are getting minutes and turning the heads of scouts. Croatian point guard Roko Leni Ukic, who declared and withdrew from the 2004 NBA draft, continues to impress scouts. He's averaging 17.1 ppg, 3.7 apg 44 percent shooting for Split.
Croatian guard Marko Tomas followed up our mention in Insider last Friday with a 30-point game against Split this week – a career high for Tomas.
Serbian powerhouse Partizan has suffered a high number of injuries, meaning that some of their young talents are getting opportunities to play.
Uros Tripkovic continues to look like one of the best young guard talents in Europe. Peja Samardziski, who didn't play a minute for the senior team last year, continues to get important minutes for Partizan this year. He had 14 points versus Hemofarm earlier in the week. He got to play 16 minutes in their Euroleague game against Efes Pilsan on Thursday and grabbed four rebounds.
The other sleeper is Turkish big man Semih Erden. Erden, an 18-year-old seven footer, has been getting consistent minutes for Partizan and is seen as a legit NBA prospect. He had 17 points against Hemofarm this week and had 10 points and six rebounds versus Efes Pilsan on Thursday.
Finally, scouts are spending a lot of time in Madrid, Spain checking out two potential prospects playing for Read Madrid. Mickael Gelabale, a 21-year-old, 6-7 swingman from France, is putting up consistent solid numbers in Euroleague play. He had 17 points and 7 rebounds versus Climamio Thursday night and is averaging 9 ppg on 68 percent shooting in Euroleague play.
This week's sleeper is Real Madrid's Axel Herville, a 21-year-old, 6-9 power forward from Belgium who led the Ulep cup in rebounding last season. "He's a good athlete, with long arms and big shoulders," one NBA scout said. "He's kind of a rebounding specialist. He isn't much of a scorer but he really hits the glass as well as anyone in Europe right now."
Herville had 12 boards against Estudiantes last week and 10 points in Madrid's win versus Cimamio on Thursday. Both players are second round prospects at this point, though Gelabale has enough game that he could work his way late into the first round with strong workouts.
Juniors getting to the point
By Chad Ford
ESPN Insider
The cream of the high school class of 2001 has already been skimmed off. Amare Stoudemire, Carmelo Anthony, Chris Bosh, Andre Iguodala are already in the NBA and look like they'll be all-stars for years to come.
However, the rest of the junior class remains surprisingly intact. Four defections this late in the game is rare. Of course, there's a reason.
"That class was pretty top heavy," one NBA scout said. "With the exception of Bosh and Stoudemire, there just weren't a lot of big men. Most of the really talented players left in the class are guards. That's a little disappointing, but there are some talented kids left."
How talented? Only the top three or four kids on the chart project as potential lottery picks, however there's plenty of first-round and second-round talent in this group.
Deron Williams, PG, Illinois
The facts: 6-foot-3, 210 pounds; 12.8 ppg, 6.9 apg on 43 percent shooting
The skinny: More and more scouts are claiming that the second best point guard prospect in the league is Williams. While Wake Forest's Chris Paul is getting tagged as the best point guard prospect since Jason Kidd, Williams is getting the rep as the player whose style and body most resemble Kidd's.
"Deron is a lot like Kidd in the half court," one NBA scout said. "They play the same way. They're both straight-line guys. Once he gets his hip on you, he's gone. Deron's not as fast as Kidd in the open court, but Deron can shoot. Jason can't."
Not everyone agrees. Some scouts think he lacks the speed and quickness to be a great NBA point guard. However, Insider's most trusted scouts feel that Williams playmaking ability, size, strength and floor vision make up for his lack of speed in the open court. Look for him to go anywhere between the late lottery to mid-first round.
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[font=verdana, arial, geneva]If Felton were taller, he would be a lock for a lottery pick.[/font]Raymond Felton, PG, North CarolinaThe facts: 6-1, 200 pounds; 9.7 ppg, 7.7 apg on 45 percent shooting
The skinny: Felton is another one of the best "pure" point guard in the college ranks right now. He has blazing speed and a real feel for directing traffic. He's a great ball handler and can see things on the floor before most point guards can. He's an excellent athlete and has a nice, strong frame that NBA scouts love. He can be very explosive and plays with a nice flair.
Not everything is positive for Felton. He can't shoot off the dribble. At times, he struggles to nail even open jumpers when teams give him the shot. What's interesting is that Felton averaged 30 ppg as a senior in high school, so obviously he knows how to score. He just hasn't done it well during his stint at UNC. He's also an accomplished defender.
The comparisons with T.J. Ford are pretty obvious. If he were two or three inches taller, he'd be a lottery pick for sure. Right now, scouts think the late lottery to mid first round is probably where he'll be taken.
John Gilchrist, PG, Maryland
The facts: 6-3, 200 pounds; 14.4 ppg, 7.1 apg on 48 percent shooting
The skinny: Gilchrist has it all. He's tough, has a great NBA body and athleticism for a point guard, can score and pass, and has hit some big clutch shots for Maryland over the past two years.
So why isn't he ranked higher on the list? He's so much like like Stephon Marbury in style and attitude – that he's scaring off a number of scouts who feel that Marbury's style of play puts up great numbers, but doesn't win in the NBA.
"I'm not sure you win with him," one NBA scout who has had Marbury on his team told Insider. "His numbers look great, but you watch how he interacts with his teammates and it isn't too good. He gets way too negative to his own players and he too often gets caught up in his own game at the wrong times. The talent is there. I'm not sure about the head."
That report makes Gilchrist a little tough to project – lottery talent with a second round attitude. Figure that teams split the difference and he's a mid-first rounder.
Antoine Wright, G/F, Texas A&M
The facts: 6-7, 210 pounds; 16.7 ppg, 7.1 rpg on 58 percent shooting
The skinny: Wright seems to have rebounded from a horrific sophomore season. Wright looked like he was a lock for the lottery after an amazing freshman season for the Aggies. However, last season his numbers dropped across the board as he shot just 36 percent from the field and 29 percent from the 3-point arc.
This year, Wright seems to have regained his shooting stroke and his confidence. He handles the rock well for a 6-foot-7 foot player, he sees the floor well and just has an overall good feel for the game. Scouts still wonder about his head a bit after he fell apart last season. If he can continue to play like he has this season, scouts claim he's talented enough to be a lottery pick. Right now he's more on the mid-first round bubble.
Francisco Garcia, G/F, Louisville
The facts: 6-7, 200 pounds; 16.1 ppg, 5.1 rpg, 3.9 apg on 47 percent shooting
The skinny: Garcia appears to have helped himself tremendously this offeseason by gaining a little weight. He's obviously a gifted scorer and a top-notch athlete. He's a dead eye from long range and seems to have no problem getting to the basket at will. He's very quick and explosive.
Garcia's long, versatile and has a good feel for the basketball. He's a fabulous shot blocker for a swingman and also is a dead eye from the free throw line. Scouts believe his natural position is the three, but he also has the ability to play the two. The comparisons to Tayshaun Prince are pretty solid. He still needs to get stronger and work on shooting off the dribble, but most scouts now see him as a very solid mid to late first round pick.
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[font=verdana, arial, geneva]Carney has to learn how to create his own shot in order to elevate his draft projection.[/font]Rodney Carney, SF, MemphisThe facts: 6-7, 210 pounds; 17.1 ppg, 6.3 rpg on 39 percent shooting
The skinny: After a scintillating start to the season, Carney has cooled off in the last week. That might be due to an enormous amount of tension right now in the program thanks to a three-way feud between coach John Calipari, Sean Banks and Darius Washington Jr.. Carney is a good kid that seems to be caught in the middle.
The 6-7 junior is the son of two track stars. Carney himself was the Indiana state champ in the high jump as a high school senior. Calipari calls him one of the best five athletes in the country, something you know will turn heads in the NBA.
"Just on DNA, you've got to love him," one NBA scout told Insider. "Both parents are track stars. He may be the best athlete in college basketball. On an up-tempo team he'd be really good. He's also improved his shooting in the mid-range game, which is why he's having such a big year."
So why hasn't he gotten more publicity? "He goes through huge spans where he disappears. He doesn't create his own shot. If he did, he'd be a lock for the lottery."
Look for Carney to get consideration as a late lottery to mid-first round pick anyway if he continues to play well. With his size, length, speed, jumping ability and three-point shooting ability, he appears to be the prototypical NBA small forward.
Rashad McCants, SG, North Carolina
The facts: 6-4, 205 pounds; 19.8 ppg, 3.5 rpg on 53 percent shooting
The skinny: McCants might be the most-talented junior in the country. He's obviously a gifted scorer and a top-notch athlete. He's a dead eye from long range and seems to have no problem getting to the basket at will. He's very quick and explosive.
But he, too, has some serious issues. Scouts believe he's much closer to 6-3 and don't believe he has the handle or the head to be an NBA point guard. His long arms and athleticism make up for some of those height issues, but not all of them. He's also a spotty defender, which certainly doesn't help his cause
"He's just so moody. He's up and down like a yo-yo. He's a talented kid who will be very tough to coach in the NBA," says one scout. "There's a history of these undersized scoring two guards in the league. Most of them don't make it. How's he going to handle adversity? From what I've seen, the answer isn't good."
McCants is also getting hurt from comparisons to another talented, undersized two guard from North Carolina – Joe Forte. Despite having talent, athleticism and the ability to score at will, Forte was a major bust in the NBA. Is McCants on the same track? He's a high lottery pick based on talent, but he's another kid with a second round attitude. Who knows who will take a shot?
Shelden Williams, PF, Duke
The facts: 6-9, 250 pounds; 15.9 ppg, 11.4 rpg, 3.6 bpg on 57 percent shooting
The skinny: Williams is one of the best rebounders in college basketball. He's a physical bruiser who works tirelessly in the paint. He's also one of the best, if not the best, shot blocker in the NCAA. While he isn't the most athletic guy, he is quick off the floor.
Could Williams be the second coming of Carlos Boozer? Scouts say that the work ethic and basketball IQ are there, but Williams lacks Boozer's scoring touch on the offensive end. He has terrible hands. If you watch him closely, he never catches the ball cleanly. That could limit his effectiveness on the offensive end.
Still, for teams looking for rebounding and shot blocking in the paint, Williams is one of the best options on the board. Look for him to be a late first rounder.
Nate Robinson, SG, Washington
The facts: 5-9, 180 pounds; 22.5 ppg, 4.4 rpg, 5.6 apg, 2.4 spg on 56 percent shooting
The skinny: Several NBA scouts are quietly saying that Robinson is their favorite basketball player in college basketball. When you look at his numbers it's kind of tough to argue. Right?
So why isn't Robinson atop our list of potential No. 1 overall picks? Size matters in the NBA, and Robinson stands 5-9 in shoes (according to official measurements at the 2004 Chicago pre-draft camp). The fact that he isn't even a point guard also doesn't help matters.
Still, that hasn't stopped scouts from drooling over the possibility of adding Robinson late in the first round. "He's the best finisher in college basketball," one NBA scout gushed. "He's almost impossible to guard."
Robinson put up impressive numbers last season, too. He was one of the better players at the Chicago pre-draft camp, averaging 11.7 ppg and ranking second in the camp in assists. In fact, he ranked No. 1 among all the players in the camp in athletic testing.
He measured a 43.5 inch vertical and ran the three-quarters court sprint in 2.96 seconds, a Chicago record. However, he couldn't convince one team to give him a promise in the first round, so he went back to school. That sounds like it's going to change this year.
"I'm not sure where he will go in the draft, but don't forget the 'wow' factor here," an NBA exec told Insider. "Every time he touches the ball, everyone holds their breath. He can sell tickets. Fans react to him. I think he's going to go much earlier than people think. If he's a mid-first rounder I wouldn't be surprised.
Right now he's a likely late first-round, early second-round pick, but it only takes one team to fall in love for him to go much higher.
Jarrett Jack, PG, Georgia Tech
The facts: 6-foot-3, 200 pounds; 13.3 ppg, 5.3 rpg, 5 apg on 61 percent shooting
The skinny: Jack is having another up-and-down year. That's not really the image you want to project if you're a point guard. He really knows how to run a team. He has good size and nice court vision, as well as an NBA body and athleticism. He's an excellent rebounder for a point guard. He's also a good defender who collects a decent number of steals.
Still, scouts worry that he plays a little out of control at times. His three turnovers per game are fairly high for such a natural point. He doesn't have great 3-point range on his jumper, and he struggles to shoot off the dribble.
With so many point guards ranked ahead of him right now, he's probably better off returning to school for his senior season unless he really breaks out during the second half of the season. Right now he's on the first round bubble.
Best of the Rest: Kennedy Winston, G/F, Alabama; Hassan Adams, SG, Arizona; Bracey Wright, G, Indiana; J.J. Redick, G, Duke; Sean May, PF, Duke; Torin Francis, PF, Notre Dame; Paul Davis, PF, Michigan State; Rashad Anderson, SG, UConn; Dee Brown, G, Illinois; Ike Diogu, PF, Arizona State; Justin Gray, G, Wake Forest; Jeff Horner, PG, Iowa; Kelenna Azubuike, G/F, Kentucky; Anthony Roberson, G, Florida; Tim Smith, G, Eastern Micihgan; Matt Haryasz, F/C, Stanford; Juan Jose Barea, PG, Northeastern; Brandon Roy, G, Washington; Craig Smith, F, Boston College; Carl Krauser, PG, Pittsburgh; Shavlik Randolph, F, Duke; Nik Caner Medley, F, Maryland; Matt Walsh, F, Florida; Jason Fraser, F, Villanova; Pierre Pierce, G, Iowa
Draft Cards
<LI>Pittsburgh's Chris Taft was a preseason favorite for the No. 1 pick in the 2005 draft. That might begin changing soon. Several NBA scouts told Insider that they were unimpressed with Taft after attending a series of Pitt games over the past couple of weeks.
Taft's numbers have certainly been suspect. Five players on the Pitt roster are getting more minutes than Taft. His rebounding numbers and field-goal percentage are down from last year. For the season, he's averaging just 12.9 ppg and 6.7 rpg. Those aren't lottery pick numbers. What's going on?
"I think he has a bad case of NBA-it is," one NBA scout said. "He just looks like he's going through the motions. Last year he had something to prove. This year, he seems like he's just trying not to get hurt."
Another scout said that he's concerned that Taft has put on some bad weight, which may be hurting his athleticism and explosiveness. Whatever the reasons, he's clearly found himself in head coach Jamie Dixon's dog house. Dixon has been leaning toward using Chevon Troutman (another player scouts really like) instead, because Troutman hustles and grabs loose balls.
His teammate, point guard Carl Krauser, says that Taft will get his minutes once he starts putting in the work again.
"I don't really know what's going on with that, I just know a lot of guys are competing hard, and maybe it's tough to get everybody the minutes they're supposed to have," Krauser said. "But I know with hard work, (Taft) is going to bounce back into the top three."
<LI>NBA scouts have been whispering to Insider for weeks that something was amiss at Memphis. All of them came away raving about Carney and cursing about Banks and Washington under the breath. Now we know why.
Calipari suspended Banks indefinitely this week for breaking team rules. However, there's more to it than that.
"He's been a cancer on that team," one NBA scout said. "He's a selfish player. Instead of reveling in the fact that he has more talent around him, he's gotten more selfish. He's a very talented player, the most talented guy on Memphis. But with his attitude, I'm not sure how you give a guy a guaranteed contract in the first round acting like he does."
Those observations, coupled with a checkered past for Banks, has torpedoed his NBA stock for the moment.
<LI>Our apologies to Duke guard Daniel Ewing, who mysteriously was left off our list of college seniors NBA scouts were watching. It was an accident, not an indictment on his pro prospects. To make up for the mistake, I asked one NBA scout, who is a Ewing fan, to break down his game.
"I think he has the chance to become an NBA point guard," the scout told Insider. "He's got all the physical tools and real knack for scoring. They question has always been his size (6-foot-3). He needs to make the transition to the one. I think he's made huge strides this year. He's shown that he's a good passer and makes smart decisions with the basketball. I think he could be a Gilbert Arenas like point guard in the pros."
Other scouts aren't quite as sure. They all love his athleticism, his ability to shoot off the dribble, and his three-point accuracy. Ewing's numbers this year, 17.9 ppg, 4.4 apg, 46 percent shooting from three are very impressive. But can he make the transition to the point? Every scout has a different take. Unfortunately for Ewing, that's the difference between Ewing going in the mid to late first round and the second round.
<LI>On the other side of the pond, several top prospects are getting minutes and turning the heads of scouts. Croatian point guard Roko Leni Ukic, who declared and withdrew from the 2004 NBA draft, continues to impress scouts. He's averaging 17.1 ppg, 3.7 apg 44 percent shooting for Split.
Croatian guard Marko Tomas followed up our mention in Insider last Friday with a 30-point game against Split this week – a career high for Tomas.
Serbian powerhouse Partizan has suffered a high number of injuries, meaning that some of their young talents are getting opportunities to play.
Uros Tripkovic continues to look like one of the best young guard talents in Europe. Peja Samardziski, who didn't play a minute for the senior team last year, continues to get important minutes for Partizan this year. He had 14 points versus Hemofarm earlier in the week. He got to play 16 minutes in their Euroleague game against Efes Pilsan on Thursday and grabbed four rebounds.
The other sleeper is Turkish big man Semih Erden. Erden, an 18-year-old seven footer, has been getting consistent minutes for Partizan and is seen as a legit NBA prospect. He had 17 points against Hemofarm this week and had 10 points and six rebounds versus Efes Pilsan on Thursday.
Finally, scouts are spending a lot of time in Madrid, Spain checking out two potential prospects playing for Read Madrid. Mickael Gelabale, a 21-year-old, 6-7 swingman from France, is putting up consistent solid numbers in Euroleague play. He had 17 points and 7 rebounds versus Climamio Thursday night and is averaging 9 ppg on 68 percent shooting in Euroleague play.
This week's sleeper is Real Madrid's Axel Herville, a 21-year-old, 6-9 power forward from Belgium who led the Ulep cup in rebounding last season. "He's a good athlete, with long arms and big shoulders," one NBA scout said. "He's kind of a rebounding specialist. He isn't much of a scorer but he really hits the glass as well as anyone in Europe right now."
Herville had 12 boards against Estudiantes last week and 10 points in Madrid's win versus Cimamio on Thursday. Both players are second round prospects at this point, though Gelabale has enough game that he could work his way late into the first round with strong workouts.
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