Harry
ASFN Consultant and Senior Writer
One of the toughest things scouts have to do is determine the size of gaps. It’s relatively easy to rank players at a given position. That doesn’t mean you’re always right. Still it’s much easier to project who is the top WR than to say how big is the projected performance difference between 1 & 2. As the rank declines, the difference between 4 & 5 for example, is usually harder. That’s why you often see the lower choice outperform the higher choice.
I know we’re too early to make definitive judgments, but it’s fairly easy to illustrate the point. Let’s say in WRs you have Harrison as #1 & Coleman as #2. How much better is Harrison likely to perform? In this case I’d say the biggest difference would center around how soon they can contribute. Harrison is incredibly polished. The team that selects him could put him on the field immediately and should expect productive numbers. Maybe even he’d produce highly productive numbers. Coleman would take more games to be fully productive. He needs to polish his route running. He could likely improve his overall strength. Finally he likely need to better understand hot reads and how to react when his QB is in trouble. He simply has more to learn before he is productive on Harrison’s likely level. Still Coleman’s a good pick.
However, the difference between Coleman and Odunze would seem harder to calculate. Coleman shows more polish, but Odunze shows more physicality. Both should become successful NFL receivers. How soon and what is their ceiling? Coleman is more elusive but Odunze figures to do better on 50-50 balls. Maybe one is better suited for a specific team’s QB. I like Coleman better as I feel it’s easier to improve strength than elusiveness. Therefore he has more upside.
One of the trickiest positions to evaluate is the Edge. Going back 10 years Dion Jordan was the first rusher chosen. He topped out at 4 sacks. The next one chosen was Ezekiel Ansah whose best year got him 14.5 sacks. More recently Travon Walker went first before Aidan Hutchinson. Anderson from 2023 has 1 sack after going 3rd in the draft. So far it looks like a lousy year for Edges. Hopefully 2024 will be better, but no guarantees. This has been the hardest position for the 1 & 2 gap.
Here’s a few obvious 2024 gaps. OT - Fashanu dominates the field. He’s more like the 90s brawlers that manhandled DLs. Alt is a good prospect but not as good. TE - Bowers is by far the top guy. A few teams are scared by his injury history, but Bowers is the game changer. DT - Newton is undersized but so are the other top guys in this pool. He just has a nose for the ball. Despite his size he’s an effective run stopper.
At this point it’s a good draft for QBs, CBs, OTs, WRs and theoretically Edges.
I know we’re too early to make definitive judgments, but it’s fairly easy to illustrate the point. Let’s say in WRs you have Harrison as #1 & Coleman as #2. How much better is Harrison likely to perform? In this case I’d say the biggest difference would center around how soon they can contribute. Harrison is incredibly polished. The team that selects him could put him on the field immediately and should expect productive numbers. Maybe even he’d produce highly productive numbers. Coleman would take more games to be fully productive. He needs to polish his route running. He could likely improve his overall strength. Finally he likely need to better understand hot reads and how to react when his QB is in trouble. He simply has more to learn before he is productive on Harrison’s likely level. Still Coleman’s a good pick.
However, the difference between Coleman and Odunze would seem harder to calculate. Coleman shows more polish, but Odunze shows more physicality. Both should become successful NFL receivers. How soon and what is their ceiling? Coleman is more elusive but Odunze figures to do better on 50-50 balls. Maybe one is better suited for a specific team’s QB. I like Coleman better as I feel it’s easier to improve strength than elusiveness. Therefore he has more upside.
One of the trickiest positions to evaluate is the Edge. Going back 10 years Dion Jordan was the first rusher chosen. He topped out at 4 sacks. The next one chosen was Ezekiel Ansah whose best year got him 14.5 sacks. More recently Travon Walker went first before Aidan Hutchinson. Anderson from 2023 has 1 sack after going 3rd in the draft. So far it looks like a lousy year for Edges. Hopefully 2024 will be better, but no guarantees. This has been the hardest position for the 1 & 2 gap.
Here’s a few obvious 2024 gaps. OT - Fashanu dominates the field. He’s more like the 90s brawlers that manhandled DLs. Alt is a good prospect but not as good. TE - Bowers is by far the top guy. A few teams are scared by his injury history, but Bowers is the game changer. DT - Newton is undersized but so are the other top guys in this pool. He just has a nose for the ball. Despite his size he’s an effective run stopper.
At this point it’s a good draft for QBs, CBs, OTs, WRs and theoretically Edges.
