Prospect Gaps

Harry

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One of the toughest things scouts have to do is determine the size of gaps. It’s relatively easy to rank players at a given position. That doesn’t mean you’re always right. Still it’s much easier to project who is the top WR than to say how big is the projected performance difference between 1 & 2. As the rank declines, the difference between 4 & 5 for example, is usually harder. That’s why you often see the lower choice outperform the higher choice.

I know we’re too early to make definitive judgments, but it’s fairly easy to illustrate the point. Let’s say in WRs you have Harrison as #1 & Coleman as #2. How much better is Harrison likely to perform? In this case I’d say the biggest difference would center around how soon they can contribute. Harrison is incredibly polished. The team that selects him could put him on the field immediately and should expect productive numbers. Maybe even he’d produce highly productive numbers. Coleman would take more games to be fully productive. He needs to polish his route running. He could likely improve his overall strength. Finally he likely need to better understand hot reads and how to react when his QB is in trouble. He simply has more to learn before he is productive on Harrison’s likely level. Still Coleman’s a good pick.

However, the difference between Coleman and Odunze would seem harder to calculate. Coleman shows more polish, but Odunze shows more physicality. Both should become successful NFL receivers. How soon and what is their ceiling? Coleman is more elusive but Odunze figures to do better on 50-50 balls. Maybe one is better suited for a specific team’s QB. I like Coleman better as I feel it’s easier to improve strength than elusiveness. Therefore he has more upside.

One of the trickiest positions to evaluate is the Edge. Going back 10 years Dion Jordan was the first rusher chosen. He topped out at 4 sacks. The next one chosen was Ezekiel Ansah whose best year got him 14.5 sacks. More recently Travon Walker went first before Aidan Hutchinson. Anderson from 2023 has 1 sack after going 3rd in the draft. So far it looks like a lousy year for Edges. Hopefully 2024 will be better, but no guarantees. This has been the hardest position for the 1 & 2 gap.

Here’s a few obvious 2024 gaps. OT - Fashanu dominates the field. He’s more like the 90s brawlers that manhandled DLs. Alt is a good prospect but not as good. TE - Bowers is by far the top guy. A few teams are scared by his injury history, but Bowers is the game changer. DT - Newton is undersized but so are the other top guys in this pool. He just has a nose for the ball. Despite his size he’s an effective run stopper.

At this point it’s a good draft for QBs, CBs, OTs, WRs and theoretically Edges.
 

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Let’s say we stick with Murray and Harrison and the Penn st kid are off the board. What’s your favorite picks for us in the first then? Coleman and alt? Newton and Alabama cb?
 

bankybruce

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Dion Jordan was widely knows to juice in college, at least that were the rumors up here his senior season. He was off to start his NFL career and sucked, so he started again and got busted. Miami took a chance he was clean, but I called it when he was drafted he'd get busted for PEDs and was busted 3 different times.
Jordan's latest suspension will remind teams of the dangers they confront when drafting a player with off-the-field substance abuse issues. Jordan was suspended four games in July 2014 for violating the NFL's policy on performance-enhancing drugs. Shortly after he returned to work, he was hit with another four-game suspension for violating the league's substance abuse policy.

 
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Harry

Harry

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Dion Jordan was widely knows to juice in college, at least that were the rumors up here his senior season. He was off to start his NFL career and sucked, so he started again and got busted. Miami took a chance he was clean, but I called it when he was drafted he'd get busted for PEDs and was busted 3 different times.


Yet another issue scouts can’t usually catch.
 

bankybruce

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Yet another issue scouts can’t usually catch.
There was no way they didn't know. Radio guys go here were waiting for a failed combine test. The Ducks get away with a lot because of Nike and Uncle Phil. Miami took an absurd chance on him.
 
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Harry

Harry

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Let’s say we stick with Murray and Harrison and the Penn st kid are off the board. What’s your favorite picks for us in the first then? Coleman and alt? Newton and Alabama cb?
Coleman and Newton would be a solid combo. It’s still early. Injuries might alter desirability, off the field issues and unexplained performance changes also impact draft position. Lot’s of games left to go.
 

bankybruce

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I called the Jordan thing in fact I think I even joked unless he started doping he'd have a problem with not being strong enough in the NFL. Anybody that saw him in college saw a great athlete who wasn't that productive and was clearly way too skinny. He was trying to gain weight his whole time at Oregon so 17 pounds in a few months this offseason was a pretty obvious red flag.
Russ even called it, but didn't know about the Oregon PED use at the time.
 

oaken1

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One of the toughest things scouts have to do is determine the size of gaps. It’s relatively easy to rank players at a given position. That doesn’t mean you’re always right. Still it’s much easier to project who is the top WR than to say how big is the projected performance difference between 1 & 2. As the rank declines, the difference between 4 & 5 for example, is usually harder. That’s why you often see the lower choice outperform the higher choice.

I know we’re too early to make definitive judgments, but it’s fairly easy to illustrate the point. Let’s say in WRs you have Harrison as #1 & Coleman as #2. How much better is Harrison likely to perform? In this case I’d say the biggest difference would center around how soon they can contribute. Harrison is incredibly polished. The team that selects him could put him on the field immediately and should expect productive numbers. Maybe even he’d produce highly productive numbers. Coleman would take more games to be fully productive. He needs to polish his route running. He could likely improve his overall strength. Finally he likely need to better understand hot reads and how to react when his QB is in trouble. He simply has more to learn before he is productive on Harrison’s likely level. Still Coleman’s a good pick.

However, the difference between Coleman and Odunze would seem harder to calculate. Coleman shows more polish, but Odunze shows more physicality. Both should become successful NFL receivers. How soon and what is their ceiling? Coleman is more elusive but Odunze figures to do better on 50-50 balls. Maybe one is better suited for a specific team’s QB. I like Coleman better as I feel it’s easier to improve strength than elusiveness. Therefore he has more upside.

One of the trickiest positions to evaluate is the Edge. Going back 10 years Dion Jordan was the first rusher chosen. He topped out at 4 sacks. The next one chosen was Ezekiel Ansah whose best year got him 14.5 sacks. More recently Travon Walker went first before Aidan Hutchinson. Anderson from 2023 has 1 sack after going 3rd in the draft. So far it looks like a lousy year for Edges. Hopefully 2024 will be better, but no guarantees. This has been the hardest position for the 1 & 2 gap.

Here’s a few obvious 2024 gaps. OT - Fashanu dominates the field. He’s more like the 90s brawlers that manhandled DLs. Alt is a good prospect but not as good. TE - Bowers is by far the top guy. A few teams are scared by his injury history, but Bowers is the game changer. DT - Newton is undersized but so are the other top guys in this pool. He just has a nose for the ball. Despite his size he’s an effective run stopper.

At this point it’s a good draft for QBs, CBs, OTs, WRs and theoretically Edges.
I like Fashanu... But Mims at Georgia may just be a better pro.
 

Cbus cardsfan

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Does the NFL test for PEDs at the combine?
I remember my BIL years ago telling me how many players tested positive for drugs. Yet, many were still drafted fairly high. One year they, Jax, took 4 such guys.

As for the players, MHJ is so far above the next guy it’s amazing. He’s Calvin Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald level. People forget he’s 6’4. Plus, he’s putting up these numbers with less than stellar QB play.

On the tackles, I like Alt better but that’s just based off the eye test versus OSU’s JTT on the field.

Is Alt related to the former KC OL Alt?
 

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Good stuff Harry. Cards have lots of holes but also lots of picks. Should be a very intreating and exciting draft.
 
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