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elindholm

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Handicapping the Eastern Conference Final

BIRDSVILLE (45-18, S_Marion) vs. HANNOVER (40-23, slinslin)
Season series: 2-2

Birdsville Brawlers

Led by:
Jason Kidd (Gd-NJN, 89.0 fppg, 36 mpg x 2.41 fppm)
Jamal Mashburn (GF-NOR, 82.0, 40 x 2.02)
Shareef Abdur-Rahim (F-ATL, 80.4, 38 x 2.11)

Greatest strength: Quality depth, especially at forward and guard.
Greatest weakness: Lack of explosiveness.

Birdsville has solid players throughout the roster. Bench minutes are usually filled out by the likes of Jamaal Magloire and Wally Sczcerbiak, who would be starters on a lot of teams. Furthermore, everyone is playing well right now. The Brawlers posted the only sweep in the first round of the playoffs, and they averaged better than 530 points over the last ten games of the regular season. The scoring is steady, but with that consistency comes a price, which is that huge games come rarely. Birdsville had only two game scores in the league’s top 20 this year, and they didn’t top 530 in any of their three playoff games. Also, one wonders whether any team led by Jason Kidd shouldn’t immediately be disqualified…

Hannover Amares

Led by:
Chris Webber (F-SAC, 105.8, 39 x 2.69)
Pau Gasol (CF-MEM, 80.8, 35 x 2.27)
Michael Jordan (GF-WAS, 75.7, 36 x 2.08)

Greatest strength: Front-court explosiveness.
Greatest weaknesses: Youth, lack of depth.

Hannover has been “talking the talk” all season long, a stance that almost led to embarrassment when The Love Machine stretched the Amares to the final quarter of Game 5. Still, the confidence is justified. Webber and Gasol are joined by Donyell Marshall and Amare Stoudemire to form a fearsome front line; together with Jordan, they give Hannover five players who are regular threats to score 100 or more. The Amares posted five of the league’s top 20 game scores, and they reached 600 or better three times, while no other team got there more than once. Hannover’s concern has to be whether all of their young players will continue to produce as the long NBA season draws to a close. They also have to cross their fingers for continued health – if either Webber or Jordan goes down, even for a single game, the roster starts looking very thin.

Summary

The series will be decided not by who posts the higher average, but by who wins the most games. If Hannover is firing on all cylinders, Birdsville can’t compete. Birdsville has too many players who are willing to embrace the team concept, which is fine for NBA wins, but a weakness in fantasy play. The key to this series is Jordan, and the guess here is that he will continue to get his own while running the Wizards into the ground.

Hannover in six.
 
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elindholm

elindholm

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Handicapping the Western Conference Final

GILBERT (46-17, J_Mama) vs. ALASKA (34-29, elindholm)
Season series: 2-2.

Gilbert Gimps

Led by:
Shawn Marion (F-PHO, 93.6 fppg, 41 mpg x 2.23 fppm)
Ben Wallace (CF-DET, 81.9, 39 x 2.08)
Sam Cassell (Gd-MIL, 74.7, 34 x 2.17)

Greatest strength: Guard rotation.
Greatest weakness: Front-court depth.

The only conference finalist from the continental U.S., Gilbert has been the class of the league all season long. They posted a gaudy 13-game winning streak early in the season and have never looked back on the way to finishing with the league’s best overall record. Even losing their first two playoff games didn’t faze the Gimps, who calmly won the next three to advance. The heart of the team is the supercharged guard rotation, consisting of four players who average better than 2.0 fppm (Cassell, Bobby Jackson, Michael Redd, and John Stockton) and a reserve fifth (Nick Van Exel) who can also provide a big game when needed. With the guard rotation averaging 200 points a game, and sometimes reaching 250, the burden on the front court is much lighter. And this is fortunate, because Gilbert is already without Brad Miller, who is day-to-day with a foot problem. If either Marion or Wallace misses a game while Miller is out, the Gimps won’t even cover their minutes.

Alaska Snowwolves

Led by:
Elton Brand (CF-LAC, 91.8, 40 x 2.29)
Karl Malone (F-UTA, 86.2, 36 x 2.36)
Jerry Stackhouse (Gd-WAS, 73.8, 39 x 1.85)

Greatest strength: Position flexibility.
Greatest weakness: Guard rotation.

The Wolves are getting it done with smoke and mirrors – along with a healthy dose of Malone, who has been on a mission ever since getting passed over for the NBA All-Star team. The only second-place team to advance in the first round, Alaska has survived in spite of being without their best player, Brand, who has missed 13 straight games with a stress fracture in his leg. Brand had an MRI on Friday to determine whether he could play more this season. If he returns and plays well, he combines with Malone to provide a vicious one-two punch in the front court. Otherwise, the Wolves are reduced to hoping for continued stellar play from backup Stromile Swift, whose heroics made the difference in Alaska’s first series. Neither Brand nor Swift, however, can help with this team’s most glaring problem, its pathetic guard rotation. The most consistent of the lot is probably Troy Hudson; Stackhouse is a shell of his former self when he plays alongside Michael Jordan, and Quentin Richardson re-injures himself every other week.

Summary

Lots of things would have to go in Alaska’s favor to make this series interesting. Miller would have to stay hurt, Gilbert’s reserve front-court players would have to struggle, Brand would have to come back strong, and Alaska would have to get something out of their guards. Any one of those things might happen, but having most or all of them happen is pretty unlikely. On paper, the Gimps are just too strong to get much of a challenge here.

Gilbert in five.
 
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elindholm

elindholm

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I'm really impressed you're still so gung-ho about the league, Eric

Hey, as long as my team is still alive...
 
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elindholm

elindholm

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Yeah, it looks like my prediction of Gilbert In Five was a little optimistic -- for me. I got crushed in Game 1, and I may not even reach 300 points in Game 2. Several of my players decided to become injured simultaneously, and most of the rest were awful.

Still, I got pretty far considering I didn't have my best player for the last month of the season. So much for the strategy of drafting Elton Brand because he's "durable." No one is durable if Shaquille O'Neal decides to take them out.
 
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