A Quick Question:

[jefftheshark]

My wife's birthday is in early December, and so being a typical "guy", I generally wait until after Black Friday to go out and purchase her a (last-minute) gift. Whether it is the mall, or a department store or a strip center, because of the holiday season I generally expect to wait in a line for a while to make my purchase.

But this year is completely different. There have been no lines anywhere.

So I'm wondering if this is just Vegas, the time of day I was shopping (early evening), or if this is the new reality.

Has anyone else noticed this, because if this is nation-wide, it's kinda scary.

JTS

 

[conraddobler]

My wife's birthday is in early December, and so being a typical "guy", I generally wait until after Black Friday to go out and purchase her a (last-minute) gift. Whether it is the mall, or a department store or a strip center, because of the holiday season I generally expect to wait in a line for a while to make my purchase.

But this year is completely different. There have been no lines anywhere.

So I'm wondering if this is just Vegas, the time of day I was shopping (early evening), or if this is the new reality.

Has anyone else noticed this, because if this is nation-wide, it's kinda scary.

JTS

On Dennigers site he has a couple threads on this.

My own experience was that door busters draw customers who are pretty laser focused on stuff but that in general people are very picky about what they are buying and are very much sticking to a budget and if it's cool and on sale it gets action if it's just blah and full price it spawns tumbleweeds.

I went shopping today for some stuff I was doing and didn't notice any great deals and even fewer customers except at the book store, that was busy.

The sporting goods store I was at was dead and I've been to Wally World and it seemed less than busy.

Denniger likes to track sales tax data as that's impervious to manipulation and a great proxy for true sales, if you can find any of that data locally you can check your theory.

My guess is that it's really bad given the sudden spurt of renewed interest in spending the stimulus and tarp money.

That ratched up just after Black Friday or it seemed to me it did.

The weirdest thing I've personally noticed is a COMPLETE shift in attitudes of loan customers I deal with.

Most people wanting a lower rate used to always inquire about some extra cash and never worried much about their overall balance, now it's a dogfight to explain that if you refiance and want the lowest possible rate there will be some closing costs added to your loan.

People are HYPER vigilant now about borrowing ANY more additional money and routinely flat out turn down additional cash like it was the plauge.

That's a 180 degree change in behavior in a year and it's something I've personally never seen before in my career.

 

[azmike74]

I've experienced less people in the Glendale/Peoria AZ area as well. Retailers probably don't care for it much, but for me personally it's great because I hate shopping in crowds.

Busiest store I've been to was Best Buy. Interesting that you brought this up, I couldn't be sure if it was economy driven or the fact I normally wait to do my shopping until after Dec 20th.

I also shop early evenings fwiw.

 

[82CardsGrad]

It seems to me as well that lines have been shorter than what I've experienced in years past. I was in The Scottsdale Fashion Square Mall this past Saturday, and was pleasantly surprised by how easy it was to park and shop. I wouldn't say it was "dead" by any means, but clearly not the sort of traffic I have experienced in the past.

 

[conraddobler]

It's hard to say because traffic is only part of the equation, you also have to factor in what people who are there are buying compared to other years.

Then there is always the late rush and only after that dust settles can you really tell.

I've watched consumers for years the main theme I see is a steady return to frugality that is the underlying theme, but I've also seen consumers behave long enough to know they do things in fits and starts.

It would not surprise me to see them wig out and blow out money for a short period just to again retrench.

Money is tight and consumers aren't spending like they used to is IMO going to be the theme for a very long time but contained within that are many false headfakes to come IMO.

 

[jefftheshark]

Last Saturday afternoon, as I was driving back from getting my hair cut (and listening to the guy who has cut my hair for the last decade telling me that long hair and natural hair-shades must be making a big comeback because his business is way down), my wife called and asked if I could stop by Target and buy a gift card for a birthday party my kids were going to. I kinda groaned to myself about holiday shopping at Target on a Saturday, but said "sure".

The parking lot was fairly full, and I had to park somewhat far away from the entrance, but when I got inside the store looked almost empty. There were only 4 registers out of 24 open, and only one of them had any kind of line. Looking in the shopping carts, I saw that most of them contained only 2 or 3 items, and those items were mostly clothing. Then I walked right up to the closest cashier, made my purchase and was out of the store within minutes.

It was somewhat surreal.

On Sunday, I went to Lowe's to get a small box of 8p nails for a little project and was asked if I needed assistance by different Lowe's employees probably 5 times. At this particular Lowe's, I would normally need to spend 10 minutes searching around to even find someone to help me, let alone have someone come up and ask me.

The local paper had an article that said that sales tax receipts are plummeting, and I also know that property taxes are either very delinquent or not being paid at all on all the vacant buildings and homes in town. But I guess I'm asking, "Is this just Vegas, or is this everywhere?".

Bottom line: I've never lived through a Depression before, so is this what one looks like?


JTS

 

[conraddobler]

Last Saturday afternoon, as I was driving back from getting my hair cut (and listening to the guy who has cut my hair for the last decade telling me that long hair and natural hair-shades must be making a big comeback because his business is way down), my wife called and asked if I could stop by Target and buy a gift card for a birthday party my kids were going to. I kinda groaned to myself about holiday shopping at Target on a Saturday, but said "sure".

The parking lot was fairly full, and I had to park somewhat far away from the entrance, but when I got inside the store looked almost empty. There were only 4 registers out of 24 open, and only one of them had any kind of line. Looking in the shopping carts, I saw that most of them contained only 2 or 3 items, and those items were mostly clothing. Then I walked right up to the closest cashier, made my purchase and was out of the store within minutes.

It was somewhat surreal.

On Sunday, I went to Lowe's to get a small box of 8p nails for a little project and was asked if I needed assistance by different Lowe's employees probably 5 times. At this particular Lowe's, I would normally need to spend 10 minutes searching around to even find someone to help me, let alone have someone come up and ask me.

The local paper had an article that said that sales tax receipts are plummeting, and I also know that property taxes are either very delinquent or not being paid at all on all the vacant buildings and homes in town. But I guess I'm asking, "Is this just Vegas, or is this everywhere?".

Bottom line: I've never lived through a Depression before, so is this what one looks like?


JTS

Well it's a start of what one looks like I'd say.

I had a long talk with my dad a few weeks ago during deer season about what he remembers about it and he said very little other than being what we'd call insanely poor, he was born in 1933.

My grandfather told him all sorts of stories about it and I've looked for themes and the one theme I can see playing out is the constant march of food prices higher as a portion of peoples budget.

It's really about watching your standard of living on average... not everyone will be negatively affected.... do a death march as things you need stay the same price or rise and things you want but can't afford or want to sell steadily march into the toilet.

Society on average just gets poorer.

For instance he said you couldn't give away bushels of wheat but refined flour sold in stores cost a fortune.

So they all banded together and used a local flour mill to make rough flour and used that.

Denniger has a great ticker on why the November sales data might have shown such improvement in the face of all this anecdotal evidence.

If they're constantly lying about the data or manipulating it to avoid panic they're just going to setup an epic fail when reality crashes the party.

Who knows I just know everyone I know is either broke or afraid of becomming broke, that's another theme my Grandfather mentioned to my dad.

 

[conraddobler]

We went out to crabshack the other day for my daughters birthday.

There were on a weekend night always empty seats where 2 years ago we wouldn't of even thought about going there without moaning about waiting.

My daughter works at a grocery store as a bagger part time, she sees people buying a ton of always save and best choice more than just few months ago and buying more food but the food that sells is much more on sale now.

She said everyone's cart looks more the same than she's seen before, whatever that's about.

 

[Shane]

Last Saturday afternoon, as I was driving back from getting my hair cut (and listening to the guy who has cut my hair for the last decade telling me that long hair and natural hair-shades must be making a big comeback because his business is way down), my wife called and asked if I could stop by Target and buy a gift card for a birthday party my kids were going to. I kinda groaned to myself about holiday shopping at Target on a Saturday, but said "sure".

The parking lot was fairly full, and I had to park somewhat far away from the entrance, but when I got inside the store looked almost empty. There were only 4 registers out of 24 open, and only one of them had any kind of line. Looking in the shopping carts, I saw that most of them contained only 2 or 3 items, and those items were mostly clothing. Then I walked right up to the closest cashier, made my purchase and was out of the store within minutes.

It was somewhat surreal.

On Sunday, I went to Lowe's to get a small box of 8p nails for a little project and was asked if I needed assistance by different Lowe's employees probably 5 times. At this particular Lowe's, I would normally need to spend 10 minutes searching around to even find someone to help me, let alone have someone come up and ask me.

The local paper had an article that said that sales tax receipts are plummeting, and I also know that property taxes are either very delinquent or not being paid at all on all the vacant buildings and homes in town. But I guess I'm asking, "Is this just Vegas, or is this everywhere?".

Bottom line: I've never lived through a Depression before, so is this what one looks like?


JTS

Thats all just because you live in the ghetto.

My Targets are full to the brim!

 

[jefftheshark]

Thats all just because you live in the ghetto.

My Targets are full to the brim!

You are just jealous that my Targets are more exclusive than yours.

(although I do wish we hadn't moved)

JTS

 

[Duckjake]

Stores are crowded all day all week here in Austin. You still can't get near a Restaurant on the weekends. Traffic is exceptionally heavy considering the UT is out for semester break.

There are people all over South Congress (SoCo) which is mostly young hip boutiques and restaurants. The big thing here now is setting up shop in an airstream trailer selling-cupcakes, quiche,ice cream, crepes, etc... People are turning vacant lots into travel trailer shopping malls.

If it weren't for the newer strip centers and downtown condos being half empty you'd never know there was a recession.

But things don't look so good for next year imo. Too many people moving here looking for business opportunities will result in too many people chasing too few dollars.

 

[conraddobler]

Stores are crowded all day all week here in Austin. You still can't get near a Restaurant on the weekends. Traffic is exceptionally heavy considering the UT is out for semester break.

There are people all over South Congress (SoCo) which is mostly young hip boutiques and restaurants. The big thing here now is setting up shop in an airstream trailer selling-cupcakes, quiche,ice cream, crepes, etc... People are turning vacant lots into travel trailer shopping malls.

If it weren't for the newer strip centers and downtown condos being half empty you'd never know there was a recession.

But things don't look so good for next year imo. Too many people moving here looking for business opportunities will result in too many people chasing too few dollars.

The Uhaul index says everyone is heading to Texas, they get this by simply seeing where all the one way rentals go and they're flocking to wherever jobs are.

It's one time where a mild amount of pain might be better than none.

Consumers are fickle, I would never base anything on their holiday behavior, because it's almost an American cultural bedrock that it's ok to spend for the holdiday's.

The thing is the credit is cutoff, I've always said that once that's done things will return to reality and they will.

Xmas could surprise some, wouldn't surprise me at all but if they blowout money on xmas then they'll just tighten their belts in January worse.

The credit cards game is busted.

 

[Yuma]

Went out today and yesterday (23rd and 24th) and the malls here in Prescott, AZ were a zoo! Maybe everyone was waiting for the last moment? We flew for part of our trip and it was easier to buy presents here than to try and bring them on the plane. Otherwise, you never see me shopping right before Xmas.

 

[conraddobler]

Went out today and yesterday (23rd and 24th) and the malls here in Prescott, AZ were a zoo! Maybe everyone was waiting for the last moment? We flew for part of our trip and it was easier to buy presents here than to try and bring them on the plane. Otherwise, you never see me shopping right before Xmas.

On a lot of financial sites I've seen people who've been bearish are just incredulous at the uptick in sales.

I'd say it was a late crush of sales but to me it dosen't mean anything.

Consumers are weird, they get frugality fatigue and go nuts almost as a herd sometimes, in some ways it's almost predictable.

In times like these there are numerous headfakes, some can be stunning, nothing has gotten better, yet it looks as if people spent more money.

Just watch the credit numbers, they are positively awful, that's the whole ballgame.

Watch the DQ numbers on housing and consumer credit, to truly come out of a recession you will see the DQ rates start trending down, so far they've been trending up.

Nothing is over while that's going on.