A Can’t Lose Scenario

Harry

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On Christmas Eve the Cards received a present so big that I actually lost sleep thinking about it. With 3 more likely losses looming Ossenfort has pulled off a maneuver that’s the envy of every GM. Tanking is punished in the NFL. Added to that the unpredictability (any given Sunday) and the intense competitiveness of the players and coaches have typically doomed that strategy to failure. This time the Holy Grail of team management is within reach. There are no sure things. The Cards lost a chance to draft Eli Manning several years ago with a final game upset and while Manning wasn’t on the same level as his brother, he went on to win 2 Super Bowls, while the Cards floundered.

That said, if the Cards lose the next 3 games the draft ramifications are nearly surreal. The Cards could quickly have one of those dominant personnel opportunities that seldom occur in the NFL. The Cards would have the draft’s second pick. Consider the scenarios.

#1 The Bears go first and select Harrison. I know many, including myself, were hoping the Cards would get him and they still might. The Cards sitting second would have Williams fall in their lap. Despite a few articles to the contrary he is easily the dominant QB prospect in the draft. Forget about Maye for a moment. The consensus is USC coach Lincoln Riley has not done a good job with Williams. Many feel Riley squandered Williams’ talent. Williams remains extremely valuable. He is a true multi-threat QB. I firmly believe the Cards are staying with Murray. So they will trade Williams. Let me assure you every QB hungry team covets Williams. The suitors are numerous. Right now Washington sits third based on strength of schedule, though it’s so close the Pats could pass them. The intense QB competition could well mean the Cards could secure Washington’s third pick plus maybe a 2025 first and second plus a 2024 second. That’s an overpay and will only happen if Washington doesn’t want Maye or Daniels otherwise they sit and wait. Williams is placed well above both of them but the price is high. If Washington bites, the Cards would then sit third, but they still don’t need a QB. Behind them is New England, desperate for a QB. The Cards would trade again, securing a return likely identical to the Washington return.

One thing the Cards would have to consider is how many players from one draft could be assimilated in one year. Of course the simple solution would be to use the seconds to secure a third, round one pick. The maneuvering continues. The Cards now sit fourth. This is where the rubber hits the road. The Cards could take one of the OTs. Fashanu is the consensus choice. However, there are still teams desperate for a QB and Daniels is still on the board or maybe Maye if New England chose before Washington, as it’s rumored Washington is concerned about taking another NC QB. There are still a stack of teams desperate for a QB. The Cards could trade with Atlanta or Las Vegas. Again securing their pick along with a 2025 first and a 2024 second plus other picks. Now the Cards would have an unprecedented (I believe) four first round picks in 2025. If they make this drop they could use one of the acquired second round picks as an overpay to move back up to get their OT. This would be the optimum possible result.

#2

Chicago takes Williams. The Cards start down the line trading with Washington and New England. The Cards end up fifth. They would then likely not make another trade, but rather stay put and take Harrison. Again they could use 2 or 3 of their seconds to grab a tackle. They still have the Texas pick. They’ve also would have three 2025 firsts.

#3

It’s possible Chicago trades the first pick to New England or Washington. This would be the worst scenario for the Cards. The Cards could take Harrison, but with two top QBs on the board, I think they trade. That lets the Bears grab Harrison. The Cards are now in position to make the other trade. They would still end up getting two additional 2025 firsts plus a handful of other picks. They could use picks to come back up and get that tackle, a WR and an Edge, as their round one haul. They would have fewer but more impactful players to integrate.

I hope you follow all that. I don’t think I got lost going through the maze. I checked it several times. At the very least it’s very exciting and if this was Monti’s strategy, the Cards have a brilliant GM.
 
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Lomax to Green 84

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Harry, awesome write up! Question: do you think the Cardinals get a better trade return if they trade early (March) or wait to closer to the draft?
 

az jam

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Harry, I have aslo been thinking that the Bears could take Williams with their first pick and the best WR available with their own first round pick. I'm not that impressed with Fields. He is not a very accurate passer. A good team would beat him. The Bears would be smart to move away from him. The Cards will still be in a good position with the 2nd pick and either take Hrarrison or trade down.
 

Totally_Red

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Seems like a win win for Cardinals. If da Bears take MHJ, we trade down and get boo coo draft picks and the best tackle in the draft and hopefully one of the top 4 receivers. If they don't we draft him at 2 or drop back one position and draft him.
 

TruColor

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Seems like a win win for Cardinals. If da Bears take MHJ, we trade down and get boo coo draft picks and the best tackle in the draft and hopefully one of the top 4 receivers. If they don't we draft him at 2 or drop back one position and draft him.
I think the word you're looking for is beaucoup
 

football karma

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I think is pretty much a given that waiting up until the draft ensures it’s a sellers market.
but, at #2 dont you have to see what Chicago does prior to trading out?
 

GatorAZ

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As far as I’m concerned we’re guaranteed one of Caleb Williams, Marvin Harrison or a historic trade package. Along with a ton of other picks plus cap space this disgustingly **** putrid **** season was totally **** worth it.
 

BACH

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So what are we looking at here? Here are the latest draft trades for #2 or #3 overall for a QB.

2016
Eagles trade up to #2 overall for Carson Wentz.
Eagles give: Eagles first- (No. 8), third- (No. 77) and fourth-round (No. 100) pick in 2016, 2017 first-round pick and 2018 second-round pick = 3175 draft points.
Browns give: Browns' 1st-round pick (No. 2) in 2016 and a fourth-round pick in 2017 = 2636,5 draft points

2017
Bears trade up for #2 to take Mitch Trubisky.
Bears give: 2017 #3 overall, 2017 3rd rounder, 2017 4th rounder & 2018 3rd rounder = 2742 draft points
49ers give: 2017 #2 overall = 2600 draft points

2021
49ers trade up from 12th to #3 to draft Trey Lance
49ers give: 2021 #12 overall, 2022 1st rounder, 2022 4th rounder & 2023 1st rounder = 2576 draft points
Dolphins give: 2021 #3 overall = 2200 draft points

2023
Panthers trade up to #1 overall to take Bryce Young
Panthers give: Carolina's No. 9 and No. 61 overall picks in 2023, a first-round pick in 2024, a second-round pick in 2025 and star wide receiver D.J. Moore = 5112 draft points + DJ Moore (2025 2nd rounder estimated at #43 overall pick.
Bears give: #1 overall pick = 3000 draft points
 

football karma

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It also seems like:

Getting a trade down package that includes a #1 next year

and

Getting MHJ

is a pretty narrow window for the Cards
 

DVontel

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As far as I’m concerned we’re guaranteed one of Caleb Williams, Marvin Harrison or a historic trade package. Along with a ton of other picks plus cap space this disgustingly **** putrid **** season was totally **** worth it.
Would not be worth it if we draft Caleb lol & that’s more so the same concerns I have about Drake coming here.

Otherwise, 100% agree. Very glad we didn’t go winless which I was a little bit concerned about.
 

Cbus cardsfan

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I can easily see the Bears taking Williams at 1 and moving on from Fields. There will be a market for Fields. I see Atlanta, Vegas(depending on HC hire) and NE as potential landing spots.
NE sitting at 3 can get Harrison, assuming the Cards trade down for a haul of picks for the #2 pick, and offer Chicago their 2nd round pick this year and maybe a lower round pick and grab Fields. That'd be a nice influx of talent they desperately need.

Of course , there's my dream scenario:

Bears take Williams
Cards load up on Commander picks, this year's 4, their 2nd round this year, and a #1 next year(minimum) to take Drake Maye.
NE, seeing the top 2 QB's gone, trade their 2nd and a later round pick for Fields. Then very Belickick-like, draft Alt at #3. Bill never has seemed to value WR's that highly, so he opts for his LT.
Cards, sitting at 4 get Harrison along with all those draft picks and the whole Cardinals world is happy!!!
 

Metcalf Rules

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Bidwill is a Scrooge and won’t allow the team to accumulate more picks. He’s not about to pay the money needed to buy new bic pens it will require to sign the contracts. Just kidding! If the Cardinals don’t get Marvin Harrison, I hope it’s because someone in front of them drafts him and not because they pass on him. Merry Christmas fellow Card fans!
 

BACH

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I can easily see the Bears taking Williams at 1 and moving on from Fields. There will be a market for Fields. I see Atlanta, Vegas(depending on HC hire) and NE as potential landing spots.
NE sitting at 3 can get Harrison, assuming the Cards trade down for a haul of picks for the #2 pick, and offer Chicago their 2nd round pick this year and maybe a lower round pick and grab Fields. That'd be a nice influx of talent they desperately need.

Of course , there's my dream scenario:

Bears take Williams
Cards load up on Commander picks, this year's 4, their 2nd round this year, and a #1 next year(minimum) to take Drake Maye.
NE, seeing the top 2 QB's gone, trade their 2nd and a later round pick for Fields. Then very Belickick-like, draft Alt at #3. Bill never has seemed to value WR's that highly, so he opts for his LT.
Cards, sitting at 4 get Harrison along with all those draft picks and the whole Cardinals world is happy!!!
I think you are overly optimistic for the return to trade down to #3 or #4. I think the maximum to expect is 2x 2nd rounders.
 

slanidrac16

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Living in Chicago the heat has let up on the Bears. Williams will be the number one pick. That’s when franchise qb’s get drafted. I truly believe the Bears trade down. Then we are in the drivers seat.
Washington and Patriots appear to taking a qb. But what if the Bears trade down to #3? With us sitting at 2, what do we do? Harrison is sitting there but a plethora of draft picks would be available in a trade with the team sitting at 4.
Sacrifice the chance of drafting MHJ to acquire more picks?
 

Proximo

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On Christmas Eve the Cards received a present so big that I actually lost sleep thinking about it. With 2 more likely losses looming Ossenfort has pulled off a maneuver that’s the envy of every GM. Tanking is punished in the NFL. Added to that the unpredictability (any given Sunday) and the intense competitiveness of the players and coaches have typically doomed that strategy to failure. This time the Holy Grail of team management is within reach. There are no sure things. The Cards lost a chance to draft Eli Manning several years ago with a final game upset and while Manning wasn’t on the same level as his brother, he went on to win 2 Super Bowls, while the Cards floundered.

That said, if the Cards lose the next 2 games the draft ramifications are nearly surreal. The Cards could quickly have one of those dominant personnel opportunities that seldom occur in the NFL. The Cards would have the draft’s second pick. Consider the scenarios.

#1 The Bears go first and select Harrison. I know many, including myself, were hoping the Cards would get him and they still might. The Cards sitting second would have Williams fall in their lap. Despite a few articles to the contrary he is easily the dominant QB prospect in the draft. Forget about Maye for a moment. The consensus is USC coach Lincoln Riley has not done a good job with Williams. Many feel Riley squandered Williams’ talent. Williams remains extremely valuable. He is a true multi-threat QB. I firmly believe the Cards are staying with Murray. So they will trade Williams. Let me assure you every QB hungry team covets Williams. The suitors are numerous. Right now Washington sits third based on strength of schedule, though it’s so close the Pats could pass them. The intense QB competition could well mean the Cards could secure Washington’s third pick plus maybe a 2025 first and second plus a 2024 second. That’s an overpay and will only happen if Washington doesn’t want Maye or Daniels otherwise they sit and wait. Williams is placed well above both of them but the price is high. If Washington bites, the Cards would then sit third, but they still don’t need a QB. Behind them is New England, desperate for a QB. The Cards would trade again, securing a return likely identical to the Washington return.

One thing the Cards would have to consider is how many players from one draft could be assimilated in one year. Of course the simple solution would be to use the seconds to secure a third, round one pick. The maneuvering continues. The Cards now sit fourth. This is where the rubber hits the road. The Cards could take one of the OTs. Fashanu is the consensus choice. However, there are still teams desperate for a QB and Daniels is still on the board or maybe Maye if New England chose before Washington, as it’s rumored Washington is concerned about taking another NC QB. There are still a stack of teams desperate for a QB. The Cards could trade with Atlanta or Las Vegas. Again securing their pick along with a 2025 first and a 2024 second plus other picks. Now the Cards would have an unprecedented (I believe) four first round picks in 2025. If they make this drop they could use one of the acquired second round picks as an overpay to move back up to get their OT. This would be the optimum possible result.

#2

Chicago takes Williams. The Cards start down the line trading with Washington and New England. The Cards end up fifth. They would then likely not make another trade, but rather stay put and take Harrison. Again they could use 2 or 3 of their seconds to grab a tackle. They still have the Texas pick. They’ve also would have three 2025 firsts.

#3

It’s possible Chicago trades the first pick to New England or Washington. This would be the worst scenario for the Cards. The Cards could take Harrison, but with two top QBs on the board, I think they trade. That lets the Bears grab Harrison. The Cards are now in position to make the other trade. They would still end up getting two additional 2025 firsts plus a handful of other picks. They could use picks to come back up and get that tackle, a WR and an Edge, as their round one haul. They would have fewer but more impactful players to integrate.

I hope you follow all that. I don’t think I got lost going through the maze. I checked it several times. At the very least it’s very exciting and if this was Monti’s strategy, the Cards have a brilliant GM.
Ok I have one very big problem with this fantasy.

The #1 pick will be a QB even if Chicago decides they don't want to take one the value of the pick as you so clearly described here means they will trade down themselves.
 

Cards Crazy

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On Christmas Eve the Cards received a present so big that I actually lost sleep thinking about it. With 2 more likely losses looming Ossenfort has pulled off a maneuver that’s the envy of every GM. Tanking is punished in the NFL. Added to that the unpredictability (any given Sunday) and the intense competitiveness of the players and coaches have typically doomed that strategy to failure. This time the Holy Grail of team management is within reach. There are no sure things. The Cards lost a chance to draft Eli Manning several years ago with a final game upset and while Manning wasn’t on the same level as his brother, he went on to win 2 Super Bowls, while the Cards floundered.

That said, if the Cards lose the next 2 games the draft ramifications are nearly surreal. The Cards could quickly have one of those dominant personnel opportunities that seldom occur in the NFL. The Cards would have the draft’s second pick. Consider the scenarios.

#1 The Bears go first and select Harrison. I know many, including myself, were hoping the Cards would get him and they still might. The Cards sitting second would have Williams fall in their lap. Despite a few articles to the contrary he is easily the dominant QB prospect in the draft. Forget about Maye for a moment. The consensus is USC coach Lincoln Riley has not done a good job with Williams. Many feel Riley squandered Williams’ talent. Williams remains extremely valuable. He is a true multi-threat QB. I firmly believe the Cards are staying with Murray. So they will trade Williams. Let me assure you every QB hungry team covets Williams. The suitors are numerous. Right now Washington sits third based on strength of schedule, though it’s so close the Pats could pass them. The intense QB competition could well mean the Cards could secure Washington’s third pick plus maybe a 2025 first and second plus a 2024 second. That’s an overpay and will only happen if Washington doesn’t want Maye or Daniels otherwise they sit and wait. Williams is placed well above both of them but the price is high. If Washington bites, the Cards would then sit third, but they still don’t need a QB. Behind them is New England, desperate for a QB. The Cards would trade again, securing a return likely identical to the Washington return.

One thing the Cards would have to consider is how many players from one draft could be assimilated in one year. Of course the simple solution would be to use the seconds to secure a third, round one pick. The maneuvering continues. The Cards now sit fourth. This is where the rubber hits the road. The Cards could take one of the OTs. Fashanu is the consensus choice. However, there are still teams desperate for a QB and Daniels is still on the board or maybe Maye if New England chose before Washington, as it’s rumored Washington is concerned about taking another NC QB. There are still a stack of teams desperate for a QB. The Cards could trade with Atlanta or Las Vegas. Again securing their pick along with a 2025 first and a 2024 second plus other picks. Now the Cards would have an unprecedented (I believe) four first round picks in 2025. If they make this drop they could use one of the acquired second round picks as an overpay to move back up to get their OT. This would be the optimum possible result.

#2

Chicago takes Williams. The Cards start down the line trading with Washington and New England. The Cards end up fifth. They would then likely not make another trade, but rather stay put and take Harrison. Again they could use 2 or 3 of their seconds to grab a tackle. They still have the Texas pick. They’ve also would have three 2025 firsts.

#3

It’s possible Chicago trades the first pick to New England or Washington. This would be the worst scenario for the Cards. The Cards could take Harrison, but with two top QBs on the board, I think they trade. That lets the Bears grab Harrison. The Cards are now in position to make the other trade. They would still end up getting two additional 2025 firsts plus a handful of other picks. They could use picks to come back up and get that tackle, a WR and an Edge, as their round one haul. They would have fewer but more impactful players to integrate.

I hope you follow all that. I don’t think I got lost going through the maze. I checked it several times. At the very least it’s very exciting and if this was Monti’s strategy, the Cards have a brilliant GM.
I Love it maybe the Football Gods have Finally Blessed this team and organization Ime starting to wonder what the Houston pick would be if They Too Lose the last 2 naybe 14 or 15?
 

slanidrac16

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How about this crazy scenario?
The Bears select MHJ.
We select Williams and trade Kyler to one of the qb hungry teams for their 1st round pick.
We’ll have already added to the roster through free agency ( wr, guard). With Atlanta’s or Vegas pick we get our d-lineman. With the Texans pick we get our 2nd wr.
Atlanta or the Raiders get a qb while holding on to their draft capital.

I’m putting my hard hat on as you are reading this.
 

slanidrac16

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#3

It’s possible Chicago trades the first pick to New England or Washington. This would be the worst scenario for the Cards. The Cards could take Harrison, but with two top QBs on the board, I think they trade. That lets the Bears grab Harrison. The Cards are now in position to make the other trade. They would still end up getting two additional 2025 firsts plus a handful of other picks. They could use picks to come back up and get that tackle, a WR and an Edge, as their round one haul. They would have fewer but more impactful players to integrate.
Not necessarily the worse scenario if the Bears trade down to the team sitting at 4. That would still give us the opportunity to move down 1 spot and still get MHJ.
 
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