What will the Cardinals get for Kyler?

[football karma]

there were a lot of us calling for us to either trade him or cut bait last off-season before his contract could become an albatross moving forward.

they couldnt have cut him last offseason -- massive dead money hit of $95mm that would have incrementally used up and extra $50mm of cap space.

the remaining guarantees made him super hard to trade at that point, unless Mike sent like cash along with the player.

I think this is really the first offseason where Kylers contract has gotten into the realm of "workable" for a trade -- the money Mike would have to pay is tough but doable and the remaining money isnt terrible for the acquiring team.

 

[Harry]

When I predicted a first I didn’t expect a trip to the IR. Murray could be out for the season with a condition known as to repeat. Plus he’s not known for playing hurt. Now I’m thinking third. I would trade Baker for the same return. Next year will not be a playoff season.

 

[BirdGangThing]

a penicillin shot

 

[AsUpRoDiGy]

a penicillin shot

Midol

 

[BritCard]

This is how the Cards will be able to trade him. What they get in picks will depends on how much they are willing to eat.

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[dreamcastrocks]

I see 0 possibility of him being released.

 

[BirdGangThing]

I see 0 possibility of him being released.

we are at opposite ends of this spectrum

 

[oaken1]

Goff was an extremely exciting and hyped prospect coming out. 3 year starter who broke out his sophmore year and was a superstar as a junior, cannon arm, super accurate, high football IQ. Goff had a very complete profile.

Mendoza is a tall game manager with a limited arm, not athletic, hasn't shown out against the few good defenses he's played. Maybe he's decent as a pro, I can't imagine him being a superstar. The Pickett comparison wasnt saying they played similarly, it was that they both have very incomplete profiles and are expected to struggle in the pros.

Simpson's a very inconsistent 1 year starter who shows flashes, but seems like he has huge bust potential, I don't think he can read defenses. It's not even guaranteed he comes out this year, frankly I think he could use an extra year.

guys making profiles like that got Ryan Leaf drafted ahead of Peyton Manning.
Because an unathletic lanky pocket passer doesn't have the physical tools to be a star in the NFL.

one day, guys that make those comparisons will grow up and realize that what is between a guys ears is way more important than his athleticism for a QB.......

Mendoza makes all the throws.

and he turned down YALE to go play at CAL

 

[dreamcastrocks]

we are at opposite ends of this spectrum

Bidwill is so cheap that I just don't see it happening. Traded? I can see that happening.

 

[kerouac9]

Bidwill is so cheap that I just don't see it happening. Traded? I can see that happening.

So how do you break out the probability between traded and still on the roster come training camp?

I have it 60% cut, 35% trade, 5% still with the team.

 

[BirdGangThing]

So how do you break out the probability between traded and still on the roster come training camp?

I have it 60% cut, 35% trade, 5% still with the team.

5% meaning everybody gets fired

 

[dreamcastrocks]

So how do you break out the probability between traded and still on the roster come training camp?

I have it 60% cut, 35% trade, 5% still with the team.

I have it like 50% trade, 50% still with team. You could twist my arm for 49% still with team and 1% cut.

 

[kerouac9]

5% meaning everybody gets fired

Yup. Basically someone gets in Michael’s ear and tells him he should save that $38 million and burn the $18 million or whatever it would take to buy out MOJG.

Actually, someone block Trent Baalke’s number on Michael’s phone right now.

 

[kerouac9]

I have it like 50% trade, 50% still with team. You could twist my arm for 49% still with team and 1% cut.

Oh so you’re unserious got it

 

[dreamcastrocks]

Oh so you’re unserious got it

Unserious about what?

 

[Gandhi]

A journalist from Bleacher Report compare Murray's situation to that of Carson Wentz
(https://bleacherreport.com/articles...ckages-kyler-murray-amid-nfl-offseason-rumors)

"How might a "fair" offer for Murray look? The Indianapolis Colts' 2021 trade for Carson Wentz serves as a solid comp. Like Murray, Wentz was a high draft pick (No. 2 overall) who had early success before suffering a significant knee injury and then falling out of favor with the team that drafted him. Both quarterbacks signed lucrative second contracts three years into their careers.

The Indianapolis Colts sent a 2021 third-round pick and a 2022 first-round pick to the Philadelphia Eagles for Wentz.

The situations aren't exactly the same, of course. The Eagles had their next quarterback in Jalen Hurts, while Brissett isn't a long-term answer for Arizona. Murray is also two years deeper into his NFL career than Wentz was when he was dealt. However, the Wentz deal should serve as a starting point for any Murray offer."

Of course, a new team would owe Murray more money than the Colts owed Wentz, but on the other hand, it is also easier to move on from Murray after one year if he is not good enough.

 

[kerouac9]

A journalist from Bleacher Report compare Murray's situation to that of Carson Wentz
(https://bleacherreport.com/articles...ckages-kyler-murray-amid-nfl-offseason-rumors)







Of course, a new team would owe Murray more money than the Colts owed Wentz, but on the other hand, it is also easier to move on from Murray after one year if he is not good enough.

Also everyone clowned on Indy for making that deal. So you have to find a dumb activist owner.

 

[eastcoastDave]

There's no single answer here because it depends on how much on Kyler's contract they are willing to keep.

It's a poor offseason for QB too. There are a bunch of teams in need and very few decent options. That's going to make some teams desperate.

There's a world where the Cards keep a some of the money and get a 2nd. The Cowboys 2nd that the Jets just got in the Q trade, for example. I think that's the peak if all things fall our way. Jets are desperate, talk themselves out of Kyler's obvious issues, Kyler is happy to go etc. The "stars align" option.

I think his base value with the contract he has, having a poor season and getting shadow benched for Jacoby is a 5th. That's the mid option.

But there's also a world where there's too much stink on him, the market is flat, and the we give him away. Russ had a much greater pedigree but had to be cut after 2 years in Denver.

It's a lottery really, but I think the best bet is a 4th/5th with his full contract.

A 4th or 5th would be great if the team is able to unload all of his contract. Addition by subtraction.

 

[kerouac9]

A 4th or 5th would be great if the team is able to unload all of his contract. Addition by subtraction.

Anything would be great to unload his contract. Could imagine sending Kyler and a 2026 third- or fourth-round pick somewhere for a fifth and a Bilial Nichols type.

 

[football karma]

the more I think about it -- Murray's camp will greatly prefer being cut to traded. This could lead to them sabotaging any trade. At the minimum, only "approving" a trade to a team he prefers.

they want to pick where Kyler goes to maximize the chances he goes to a team that will truly commit to him vs a team taking a one year rehab flyer.

This of course assumes that there is a team ready to truly commit to him.

 

[kerouac9]

the more I think about it -- Murray's camp will greatly prefer being cut to traded. This could lead to them sabotaging any trade. At the minimum, only "approving" a trade to a team he prefers.

they want to pick where Kyler goes to maximize the chances he goes to a team that will truly commit to him vs a team taking a one year rehab flyer.

This of course assumes that there is a team ready to truly commit to him.

I think you have it backwards. A team trading for him likely has plans for him in 2026 and 2027 at least.

As a free agent, he’ll likely only get one year offers. Who would commit to Kyler for the long term based on the past two seasons?

Kyler probably wants to be released because he’ll get more money in 2027 if he shows out even in a relief role on a one year deal with the Raiders or Vikings.

 

[Gandhi]

Also everyone clowned on Indy for making that deal. So you have to find a dumb activist owner.

Oh, they are there. Don't worry about that.

 

[Chopper0080]

I think you have it backwards. A team trading for him likely has plans for him in 2026 and 2027 at least.

As a free agent, he’ll likely only get one year offers. Who would commit to Kyler for the long term based on the past two seasons?

Kyler probably wants to be released because he’ll get more money in 2027 if he shows out even in a relief role on a one year deal with the Raiders or Vikings.

I Kyler and his agent would prefer the trade aspect vs release. If traded Kyler has a 35 mil salary for 2026 and 19.5 guaranteed for 2027. I don't know that he is getting 2 years, 55 mil from any team on the open market. I could be wrong. And if he does well (which he would expect of himself) he can sign an extension with that team after the season and bake in the 19.5 guarantee into a bonus.

It really makes a lot of sense for the Jets TBH. They have their eyes set on a rookie QB in 2027. They were comfortable with Fields as their QB so the style is something they are ok with. They have plenty of cap space but could likely get AZ to take Fields contract back (it would save them 11 mil). They have a bunch of 2026 picks and the draft class kinda looks meh at this point. If he does well, they could flip him to another team in the future to off-set the cost of acquisition.

 

[BirdGangThing]

I Kyler and his agent would prefer the trade aspect vs release. If traded Kyler has a 35 mil salary for 2026 and 19.5 guaranteed for 2027. I don't know that he is getting 2 years, 55 mil from any team on the open market. I could be wrong. And if he does well (which he would expect of himself) he can sign an extension with that team after the season and bake in the 19.5 guarantee into a bonus.

It really makes a lot of sense for the Jets TBH. They have their eyes set on a rookie QB in 2027. They were comfortable with Fields as their QB so the style is something they are ok with. They have plenty of cap space but could likely get AZ to take Fields contract back (it would save them 11 mil). They have a bunch of 2026 picks and the draft class kinda looks meh at this point. If he does well, they could flip him to another team in the future to off-set the cost of acquisition.

that's a lot of ifs - especially the playing well part

 

[kerouac9]

I Kyler and his agent would prefer the trade aspect vs release. If traded Kyler has a 35 mil salary for 2026 and 19.5 guaranteed for 2027. I don't know that he is getting 2 years, 55 mil from any team on the open market. I could be wrong. And if he does well (which he would expect of himself) he can sign an extension with that team after the season and bake in the 19.5 guarantee into a bonus.

It really makes a lot of sense for the Jets TBH. They have their eyes set on a rookie QB in 2027. They were comfortable with Fields as their QB so the style is something they are ok with. They have plenty of cap space but could likely get AZ to take Fields contract back (it would save them 11 mil). They have a bunch of 2026 picks and the draft class kinda looks meh at this point. If he does well, they could flip him to another team in the future to off-set the cost of acquisition.

Yeah it totally depends on how Kyler sees his near future as an NFL QB.

If he wants to get on himself, he asks for his release and assumes he can rehabilitate his career in one season. Justin Fields got benched and still got 2 years, $40 million, $20 million guaranteed. A clearly washed Russ got $11 MM to be a fallback option for the Giants. Indiana Jones got $14MM to compete with Anthony Richardson.

Does he think the Jets give him the best opportunity to do that vs Pittsburgh or Vegas or another team or coach he vibes with? I have no idea.