The Case for Trading the Third Pick

[Delmar M Lewis]

Somebody has to go third. That’s the mantra with which the Cards are dealing. Simply put they have to decide if there’s a player in the draft worth the third pick. It’s clear there is no sure thing.

You can reduce the field to four players the Cards could select with the third pick. That’s assuming they wouldn’t choose a RB or WR with that pick. History says picking those positions that early is risky. It’s hard for them to impact games enough to justify such a selection, though there were exceptions. The four likely Cards’ picks if they sit still are Bain, Bailey, Reese and Simpson. I’ve covered all four in previous posts. Experience says there are issues with Bain and Simpson that can’t be corrected. They’d have to rewrite history to make themselves good choices. Reese badly tailed off late in the season and was generally inconsistent. That leaves Bailey. He’s certain to have at least limited value as a consistent, situational player. It seems fairly certain if that’s all he became, the pick would not be maximized. If the Cards stay put, he would seem to be the best option. Of course with the Combine, all star games and Pro Days to come, someone may surprise.

To trade down the Cards would need a partner willing to trade up. The first consideration becomes is there a player some team would trade up to get? Todd McShay and others have Love going third. While the Cards could use him, RB is not their primary need. The Saints would like him. They would have to give their second and third round picks to swap places. The situation is even more difficult to match with the Cowboys. They’ve traded away their second pick from this year. Would they give up next years first along with this year’s first? Maybe. The Saints could offer the same deal but might want a 2027 third back. Kansas city would have to add in their second and third picks or stretch into 2027. They do want a game breaking RB. These trades would assume the Cards are thinking RT. The Cards can’t drop below the Bengals and Dolphins or their RT options might diminish, though there would still be reasonable options in my view, but maybe not in their view.

Another possibility is someone desires Simpson. Assuming the Cards don’t fancy him; do the Browns? Their current options could not rank worse in EPA per drop back. If they want Simpson would they offer their 2 firsts from this draft. It fits on the trade chart, but with all their needs would they give up 2 early picks. I suppose it’s possible the Giants would offer their first and second to get ahead of the Titans to get their choice of WR, if they have a strong preference.

The value of this move would reflect the opinion this is a weak draft. That said, getting extra second and third pick would likely help the Cards. The draft is fairly decent in OLs. The thinking being there is no really worthy 3rd pick if the Cards were to stay in place, so work on the Oline. We need to get later into the offseason, but if the draft was tomorrow, these options would have to be considered.

My idea trade down to say 5

Somebody has to go third. That’s the mantra with which the Cards are dealing. Simply put they have to decide if there’s a player in the draft worth the third pick. It’s clear there is no sure thing.

You can reduce the field to four players the Cards could select with the third pick. That’s assuming they wouldn’t choose a RB or WR with that pick. History says picking those positions that early is risky. It’s hard for them to impact games enough to justify such a selection, though there were exceptions. The four likely Cards’ picks if they sit still are Bain, Bailey, Reese and Simpson. I’ve covered all four in previous posts. Experience says there are issues with Bain and Simpson that can’t be corrected. They’d have to rewrite history to make themselves good choices. Reese badly tailed off late in the season and was generally inconsistent. That leaves Bailey. He’s certain to have at least limited value as a consistent, situational player. It seems fairly certain if that’s all he became, the pick would not be maximized. If the Cards stay put, he would seem to be the best option. Of course with the Combine, all star games and Pro Days to come, someone may surprise.

To trade down the Cards would need a partner willing to trade up. The first consideration becomes is there a player some team would trade up to get? Todd McShay and others have Love going third. While the Cards could use him, RB is not their primary need. The Saints would like him. They would have to give their second and third round picks to swap places. The situation is even more difficult to match with the Cowboys. They’ve traded away their second pick from this year. Would they give up next years first along with this year’s first? Maybe. The Saints could offer the same deal but might want a 2027 third back. Kansas city would have to add in their second and third picks or stretch into 2027. They do want a game breaking RB. These trades would assume the Cards are thinking RT. The Cards can’t drop below the Bengals and Dolphins or their RT options might diminish, though there would still be reasonable options in my view, but maybe not in their view.

Another possibility is someone desires Simpson. Assuming the Cards don’t fancy him; do the Browns? Their current options could not rank worse in EPA per drop back. If they want Simpson would they offer their 2 firsts from this draft. It fits on the trade chart, but with all their needs would they give up 2 early picks. I suppose it’s possible the Giants would offer their first and second to get ahead of the Titans to get their choice of WR, if they have a strong preference.

The value of this move would reflect the opinion this is a weak draft. That said, getting extra second and third pick would likely help the Cards. The draft is fairly decent in OLs. The thinking being there is no really worthy 3rd pick if the Cards were to stay in place, so work on the Oline. We need to get later into the offseason, but if the draft was tomorrow, these options would have to be considered.

Imho trade down say 5-8 range grab Love use the extra pick-picks on O line Qb a Nussmeir Type or trade back up i rd one if a player ya like falls or is available

 

[Beaver]

DAL trades their 12 and 20.

You must be registered for see images attach

 

[dreamcastrocks]

oh my lord... because we didn't learn our lesson in 2023.

How about we actually have a GM who can take advantage of picking that high and actually get someone who can make a freaking impact?

The GM only partially contributes to the player's success, no matter where he was drafted.

In hindsight the trade didn't work out for us. With that said, Houston was in a bad way, like we were in a bad way before the trade. If it would have worked out as well as most people thought, AZ could have had 2 top 5 or even top 10 picks that year.

Furthermore, show me a prospect as good as Will Anderson and I might relent on this one. I don't see one. The best is Love (and I have been early on this bandwagon) and even I don't want to draft a RB #3 overally.

 

[BulldogCard]

I say get a good player at 3 like maybe a pass rusher or the best Olineman. Then take a qb like Chambliss or the LSU qb in round 2, IOL rounds 3-4, rb round 5. In FA fix the dadgum oline.

 

[slanidrac16]

We absolutely have to knock free agency out of the park.
If we can sign a rb and an OT in free agency it would free up the pick to take BPA
I believe Thompson is a free agent, bye bye. Baker is not going to play forever so Downs might make sense if he’s all that and a bag of popcorn.

Other than mortgaging the future to move up for Mendoza we are screwed at Qb. Unless we sign a guy like Malik Willis, Brissett is our starting qb.

You can’t bring in a head coach with a plan of tanking for a Qb in 2027.

 

[Proteus]

We absolutely have to knock free agency out of the park.
If we can sign a rb and an OT in free agency it would free up the pick to take BPA
I believe Thompson is a free agent, bye bye. Baker is not going to play forever so Downs might make sense if he’s all that and a bag of popcorn.

Other than mortgaging the future to move up for Mendoza we are screwed at Qb. Unless we sign a guy like Malik Willis, Brissett is our starting qb.

You can’t bring in a head coach with a plan of tanking for a Qb in 2027.

I don't think we'll tank in the 2026 season, but we likely won't be a good team even if we're trying to win games.

 

[Stout]

oh my lord... because we didn't learn our lesson in 2023.

How about we actually have a GM who can take advantage of picking that high and actually get someone who can make a freaking impact?

Magic beans, baby! Cap Space and Draft Picks!

 

[Stout]

DAL trades their 12 and 20.

You must be registered for see images attach

Monti swears to repeat the rousing success of trading out of a place to take a top edge player for "moar picks," calling it the Suggs Doctrine.

 

[Stout]

The GM only partially contributes to the player's success, no matter where he was drafted.

In hindsight the trade didn't work out for us. With that said, Houston was in a bad way, like we were in a bad way before the trade. If it would have worked out as well as most people thought, AZ could have had 2 top 5 or even top 10 picks that year.

Furthermore, show me a prospect as good as Will Anderson and I might relent on this one. I don't see one. The best is Love (and I have been early on this bandwagon) and even I don't want to draft a RB #3 overally.

FORESIGHT. You mean with FORESIGHT, my friend. Stop this "in hindsight" nonsense.

 

[Harry]

Signing a RB at 3 is pretty high as with NFL slotted pay numbers the cost is going to be $36-$40 mil. He’d better be very good or that’s a ton of wasted money.

 

[PACardsFan]

I don't think we'll tank in the 2026 season, but we likely won't be a good team even if we're trying to win games.

We’re the Cardinals, so anything is possible. But, I do think this team has young talent & if they don’t duplicate the injuries from last year, they could be better than people think. Exactly why JG should have been retained. When you bring in a new HC, the roster may or may not fit the system that the new HC brings in. And you can’t trust that someone as inept as Bidwill will take that into account when he picks his coach.

 

[ASUCHRIS]

The GM only partially contributes to the player's success, no matter where he was drafted.

In hindsight the trade didn't work out for us. With that said, Houston was in a bad way, like we were in a bad way before the trade. If it would have worked out as well as most people thought, AZ could have had 2 top 5 or even top 10 picks that year.

Furthermore, show me a prospect as good as Will Anderson and I might relent on this one. I don't see one. The best is Love (and I have been early on this bandwagon) and even I don't want to draft a RB #3 overally.

If's and buts...good idea, bad result. That's about the best you can say about most of Monti's moves - way too many bad idea/bad results.

If we had a good GM, I'd be happy to trade down in this draft, but I don't have any faith that Monti will make the right moves at this point.

 

[BooksOrangePlanet]

can we turn tne 3rd pick into the best rt and best rg in draft?

 

[some dumb guy]

It's like going to a restaurant and the waitress keeps saying "We're out of that" every time you try to order something.

I bet Monti's a liver and onions guy....yuk

 

[Harry]

I bet Monti's a liver and onions guy....yuk

Me too

 

[dreamcastrocks]

FORESIGHT. You mean with FORESIGHT, my friend. Stop this "in hindsight" nonsense.

Some people wanted Anderson sure.

However, if you wanted to tell me that you had the FORESIGHT to know that Houston would go to the AFC divisional round, devaluing their pick, you might as well buy a PowerBall...

 

[gmabel830]

Please don't take a RB at #3 overall. Now that Moore is going back to school...we are going to miss one either Bain, Bailey or Reese...as I would imagine the Jets will take one of those guys. My first choice is to trade back, because we can definitely get a RT later in round 1...and that is our biggest need. If were not gonna trade back, grab a pass rusher.

The only outlier pick would be Caleb Downs...and thats if you think he is an all-pro safety. We need to replace Jalen and possibly Budda within a year.

If we take Love at #3, we will watch him get stuffed in the backfield behind our line and eventually hurt. He will have like 300 carries for 500 yards and everyone will call him a bust.

I don't think Downs at #3 is a crazy idea. I think one of Jalen/Budda won't be back next year and both will likely be gone by the time a rookie contract is up. If the team feels that Rabbit is best in the slot and not ready to move over to safety full time, there are more head scratching picks I can think of. Problem as others have pointed out is that safety isn't a premium position for investing pick #3 and safety isn't exactly our most glaring need at this point.

Love at #3 scares me a lot given how many high RB picks have flamed out. There's a long runway still there, but I thought Ashton Jeanty was as can't miss as they come but he had a pretty pedestrian rookie season overall (granted there was a dumpster fire around him).

 

[football karma]

this draft is set up to make 2/3 of this board unhappy no matter what

the true "best players" are at RB and S. Yet i can imagine the reaction if one of them were the pick at #3

The next best high value position players all have enough questions that their floors are pretty low -- Arvell Reese is an athletic projection, Bain has arm length well below average.

DE Bailey and the two OTs are regularly ranked in the 10-15 range

ugh

 

[Stout]

Some people wanted Anderson sure.

However, if you wanted to tell me that you had the FORESIGHT to know that Houston would go to the AFC divisional round, devaluing their pick, you might as well buy a PowerBall...

Foresight = posters here saying it's a bad trade no matter what were proven correct. Foresight, not hindsight.

 

[dreamcastrocks]

Foresight = posters here saying it's a bad trade no matter what were proven correct. Foresight, not hindsight.

Except that if Houston's pick would have been #1 overall, it is an awesome trade. Even if you include Anderson and how good he is.

So again, unless you KNEW what Houston's pick would be, it's impossible to judge the trade fairly.

 

[Harry]

Some people wanted Anderson sure.

However, if you wanted to tell me that you had the FORESIGHT to know that Houston would go to the AFC divisional round, devaluing their pick, you might as well buy a PowerBall...

Pull some mock draft from right after the 2023 drafts. They universally have the Texans picking in the top 10, some in the top 5 as I recall.

 

[Mulli]

Except that if Houston's pick would have been #1 overall, it is an awesome trade. Even if you include Anderson and how good he is.

So again, unless you KNEW what Houston's pick would be, it's impossible to judge the trade fairly.

this feels like when the Cardinals didn’t draft Mahomes. The issue is he would not have been Mahomes on the Cardinals. The franchise is too inept

 

[Chopper0080]

I don't think Downs at #3 is a crazy idea. I think one of Jalen/Budda won't be back next year and both will likely be gone by the time a rookie contract is up. If the team feels that Rabbit is best in the slot and not ready to move over to safety full time, there are more head scratching picks I can think of. Problem as others have pointed out is that safety isn't a premium position for investing pick #3 and safety isn't exactly our most glaring need at this point.

Love at #3 scares me a lot given how many high RB picks have flamed out. There's a long runway still there, but I thought Ashton Jeanty was as can't miss as they come but he had a pretty pedestrian rookie season overall (granted there was a dumpster fire around him).

It is. I addressed why earlier in this thread.

 

[dreamcastrocks]

this feels like when the Cardinals didn’t draft Mahomes. The issue is he would not have been Mahomes on the Cardinals. The franchise is too inept

Mahomes went two picks before our pick? It isn't like we just didn't select him...

Also to note, we did trade to move up in the 2nd round and draft Budda, so all wasn't lost in that draft...

 

[Chopper0080]

Regarding Love at 3.

If you draft Love, and he makes the Pro Bowl twice (which we should hope for from a 3rd pick overall if we are using MHJ standards), his 5th year option would be 14 mil. There are currently three RBs who make more than 14 mil per year. CMC, Barkley, Henry. None of those RBs are with the team that originally drafted them. Also, Jeanty this year, without playing a game in the NFL, is the 14th highest paid RB in the league by year average.