The Case for Trading the Third Pick

Harry

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Somebody has to go third. That’s the mantra with which the Cards are dealing. Simply put they have to decide if there’s a player in the draft worth the third pick. It’s clear there is no sure thing.

You can reduce the field to four players the Cards could select with the third pick. That’s assuming they wouldn’t choose a RB or WR with that pick. History says picking those positions that early is risky. It’s hard for them to impact games enough to justify such a selection, though there were exceptions. The four likely Cards’ picks if they sit still are Bain, Bailey, Reese and Simpson. I’ve covered all four in previous posts. Experience says there are issues with Bain and Simpson that can’t be corrected. They’d have to rewrite history to make themselves good choices. Reese badly tailed off late in the season and was generally inconsistent. That leaves Bailey. He’s certain to have at least limited value as a consistent, situational player. It seems fairly certain if that’s all he became, the pick would not be maximized. If the Cards stay put, he would seem to be the best option. Of course with the Combine, all star games and Pro Days to come, someone may surprise.

To trade down the Cards would need a partner willing to trade up. The first consideration becomes is there a player some team would trade up to get? Todd McShay and others have Love going third. While the Cards could use him, RB is not their primary need. The Saints would like him. They would have to give their second and third round picks to swap places. The situation is even more difficult to match with the Cowboys. They’ve traded away their second pick from this year. Would they give up next years first along with this year’s first? Maybe. The Saints could offer the same deal but might want a 2027 third back. Kansas city would have to add in their second and third picks or stretch into 2027. They do want a game breaking RB. These trades would assume the Cards are thinking RT. The Cards can’t drop below the Bengals and Dolphins or their RT options might diminish, though there would still be reasonable options in my view, but maybe not in their view.

Another possibility is someone desires Simpson. Assuming the Cards don’t fancy him; do the Browns? Their current options could not rank worse in EPA per drop back. If they want Simpson would they offer their 2 firsts from this draft. It fits on the trade chart, but with all their needs would they give up 2 early picks. I suppose it’s possible the Giants would offer their first and second to get ahead of the Titans to get their choice of WR, if they have a strong preference.

The value of this move would reflect the opinion this is a weak draft. That said, getting extra second and third pick would likely help the Cards. The draft is fairly decent in OLs. The thinking being there is no really worthy 3rd pick if the Cards were to stay in place, so work on the Oline. We need to get later into the offseason, but if the draft was tomorrow, these options would have to be considered.
 

DVontel

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oh my lord... because we didn't learn our lesson in 2023.

How about we actually have a GM who can take advantage of picking that high and actually get someone who can make a freaking impact?
There’s no one in this draft to trade up for.

Caleb Downs & Love are incredible, but nobody is trading up to 3 for a Safety or RB.
 

Cardinal88

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With no QB options so to speak of, trading back will be like playing poker with a professional poker players.... they will read Monte like a Cat in the Hat book if he tried to straight face any GM wanting a safety or RB. It's so eacy and they'd call his bluff so fast, Monte would try to juggle 3 or 4 teams saying he's serious but then he'd let the clock run out on our time to pick. So Cardinals to let that happen.
 

ASUCHRIS

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We'll now have had 3 top 5 picks in the last 4 years? You just have to get absolute franchise changing dominant players in the top 5. We've gotten a good but not great LT/a WR that looks more like a bust than a star and who the hell knows in this draft. Cardinals football...it's faaaannntastic!
 

NWMike

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We really need to hope 1-2 players blow up the combine / pro days and become hot commodities. That is really the only way you can sell the 3rd pick for anything of value. I would trade back with Cleveland / Miami in a heartbeat for a 2nd / 3rd. I understand posters saying you need to take an impact guy at 3 but I just don't think the difference between the guy at 3 and the guy at 12 is that great. This is not a top heavy draft so having more picks in 2/3 gives us a better chance of landing a pro bowl guy but not an all pro. Having an extra pick in those rounds would also allow you to take a flyer on the 2nd tier of Qb's. If we had another pick in the 50s I would be all in for taking Nussmeier and hoping he was impacted by injury this year and could bounce back with a year behind Bissett.
 

Russ Smith

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I still want to build the trenches either OL or DL but I'm starting to come around to the guys saying pick Love. It's way too high for a RB but there is no guy in this draft who will be there at 3 that doesn't have at least some questions.

Bailey or love seem the safer picks. I still love Bain but am willing to concede there's very little history of guys with arms that short excelling. I mentioned Tuipolotu but he's very much an outlier and was picked in the 2nd round.
 

BullheadCardFan

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We really need to hope 1-2 players blow up the combine / pro days and become hot commodities. That is really the only way you can sell the 3rd pick for anything of value. I would trade back with Cleveland / Miami in a heartbeat for a 2nd / 3rd. I understand posters saying you need to take an impact guy at 3 but I just don't think the difference between the guy at 3 and the guy at 12 is that great. This is not a top heavy draft so having more picks in 2/3 gives us a better chance of landing a pro bowl guy but not an all pro. Having an extra pick in those rounds would also allow you to take a flyer on the 2nd tier of Qb's. If we had another pick in the 50s I would be all in for taking Nussmeier and hoping he was impacted by injury this year and could bounce back with a year behind Bissett.
It all sounds good until you remember that MO is making the picks

How many did have last year?

And how many guys did he pass on by moving around?

No confidence in him to do the right thing
 

PACardsFan

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We'll now have had 3 top 5 picks in the last 4 years? You just have to get absolute franchise changing dominant players in the top 5. We've gotten a good but not great LT/a WR that looks more like a bust than a star and who the hell knows in this draft. Cardinals football...it's faaaannntastic!
That’s the problem. There are no absolute franchise changing dominant players in THIS draft.
 

PACardsFan

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God knows we need at least 1 RB. Maybe take Love at 3! He’s an excellent talent with no warts. Every other player outside of Mendoza & Love have warts.
 

DVontel

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Dark times indeed.

I have a tough time valuing Downs or Love over Bailey or Mauigoa. Maybe that changes but I don't think it will.
I think both Downs & Love are much better prospects than both Maugioa & Bailey, despite them playing premium positions, especially Bailey. That’s what hurts.
 

Fitz4Ever

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Please don't take a RB at #3 overall. Now that Moore is going back to school...we are going to miss one either Bain, Bailey or Reese...as I would imagine the Jets will take one of those guys. My first choice is to trade back, because we can definitely get a RT later in round 1...and that is our biggest need. If were not gonna trade back, grab a pass rusher.

The only outlier pick would be Caleb Downs...and thats if you think he is an all-pro safety. We need to replace Jalen and possibly Budda within a year.

If we take Love at #3, we will watch him get stuffed in the backfield behind our line and eventually hurt. He will have like 300 carries for 500 yards and everyone will call him a bust.
 

Chopper0080

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I think both Downs & Love are much better prospects than both Maugioa & Bailey, despite them playing premium positions, especially Bailey. That’s what hurts.
Maybe (I disagree more on Bailey than Mauigoa) but the economics of having to pay Love 14mil or Downs 18.6 mil is rough.

The Ravens just did this for Kyle Hamilton and he rewarded them with one less INT than Budda Baker and 4 more passes defended in the same number of games played.
 

DVontel

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Maybe (I disagree more on Bailey than Mauigoa) but the economics of having to pay Love 14mil or Downs 18.6 mil is rough.

The Ravens just did this for Kyle Hamilton and he rewarded them with one less INT than Budda Baker and 4 more passes defended in the same number of games played.
You’re right.

Back on the Bailey/Bain train.
 
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