KD and Beal Trade Recap

[Yuma]

From AZ Sports:

"But here’s what they have traded in the superstar deals for Beal and Durant that have also landed them Jordan Goodwin, Isaiah Todd and T.J. Warren (free agent):

Players Dealt​

Chris Paul
Mikal Bridges
Cam Johnson
Jae Crowder
Landry Shamet

Players Received​

Kevin Durant
TJ Warren
Bradley Beal
Jordan Goodwin
Isaiah Todd.

Suns first-round picks owed — Kevin Durant trade​

2023
2025
2027
2029

Suns second-round picks owed — Bradley Beal trade​

2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2030

Pick-swaps​

2024
2026
2028 (in both Durant and Beal trades)
2030"

Also: "The Suns will send the Wizards six second-round picks (2024, 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2030) with four more first-round pick swaps (2024, 2026, 2028, 2030). That kept their 52nd overall pick in hand."

 

[Yuma]

I thought this would be a good reference for other threads.

 

[95pro]

Maybe add who the suns got in return. Seems like we traded away a full squad of starters, except for Shamet.

 

[CardsSunsDbacks]

I think some of those 2nd round picks are swaps?

 

[Yuma]

I think some of those 2nd round picks are swaps?

It looks like swaps every other even year.

 

[RON_IN_OC]

I thought this would be a good reference for other threads.

Seeing it in one post makes it look sooooooo lopsided against the Suns.

 

[GatorAZ]

Adding in the 2030 pick swap was egregious. If I’m the Wizards I feel pretty good about this trade given their direction.

 

[dreamcastrocks]

It looks and will be really bad if the Suns can't win in the next 2 years. They will have set their franchise back 5 years. I hope they win though.

With that said, I respect them swinging for the fences.

 

[Absolute Zero]

And don't forget the CASH

 

[Covert Rain]

The Beal trade changed everything. Even if KD doesn't work out or we move on? Now you have a one two punch of Booker/Beal. None of those picks they gave up are going to turn into anything substantial unless someone hits on a lucky pick but that can't be accounted for or there are serious multiple injuries.

 

[BirdGangThing]

They call the early picks the lottery picks but after about the mid(?) first round you might have better chances at winning the lottery

I mean a lot of the League's top players weren't drafted top 10 - which suggests nobody has this player analysis gambling thing quite figured out

But if you don't want to depend solely on gambling there's this thing called free agency

Granted, the new CBA and DeAndre Ayton will most definitely be handicapping our free agency opportunities in the near future - but I'm still not too worried about losing a bunch of late ass draft picks

 

[Covert Rain]

They call the early picks the lottery picks but after about the mid(?) first round you might have better chances at winning the lottery

I mean a lot of the League's top players weren't drafted top 10 - which suggests nobody has this player analysis gambling thing quite figured out

But if you don't want to depend solely on gambling there's this thing called free agency

Granted, the new CBA and DeAndre Ayton will most definitely be handicapping our free agency opportunities in the near future - but I'm still not too worried about losing a bunch of late ass draft picks

You are right it's not a guarantee, but we can see the statistics based on the last 30 years. Chances of getting an All-Star:

Lottery Picks:
- Picks 1-3 (53.3%)
- Picks 2-6 (27.7%)
- Picks 7-10 (18.3%)

By Round:
- 1st round Picks (1–14) = 25.7% probability of All-Star
- 1st round Picks (15-30) = 7.8% probability of All-Star
- 2nd Round = 4.3% probability of All-Star

By Pick
Here are the stats by pick. If you are wondering why the chart seems to skip picks (i.e., between pick 15-20) it's because there is no statistical difference between drafting 16-20, 21-25, 26-30, 31-40, 41-50, 51-60.

You must be registered for see images attach

 

[Phrazbit]

The Beal trade changed everything. Even if KD doesn't work out or we move on? Now you have a one two punch of Booker/Beal. None of those picks they gave up are going to turn into anything substantial unless someone hits on a lucky pick but that can't be accounted for.

I don't see Beal being effective into his mid 30s.

It's pretty likely that some of those picks at the end of the decade are in the top 10. If we win a title before then, awesome, but we've given out some picks that are going to be highly coveted down the road.

 

[Covert Rain]

I don't see Beal being effective into his mid 30s.

It's pretty likely that some of those picks at the end of the decade are in the top 10. If we win a title before then, awesome, but we've given out some picks that are going to be highly coveted down the road.

I would put money on that none of them will be top 10. Outside a top 3 pick it likely won't matter anyway. I don't agree on Beal and I think Ishbia has proven he will do what it takes to field a competitive team.

 

[Phrazbit]

I would put money on that none of them will be top 10. I don't agree on Beal and I think Ishbia has proven he will do what it takes to field a competitive team.

I know Ishbia is willing to do whatever, but we're leveraged to hell and back. It is what it is.

Planning on landing stars as pure free agents isn't a plan, it virtually never happens.

We're going down a very "Isiah Thomas Knicks" path. We've leveraged all our trade capital, next step is overpaying on every contract we sign.

Hopefully we get a title before the butcher comes for the bill.

 

[Covert Rain]

I know Ishbia is willing to do whatever, but we're leveraged to hell and back. It is what it is.

Planning on landing stars as pure free agents isn't a plan, it virtually never happens.

We're going down a very "Isiah Thomas Knicks" path. We've leveraged all our trade capital, next step is overpaying on every contract we sign.

Hopefully we get a title before the butcher comes for the bill.

We still have every other 1st round pick and I don't put it past Ishbia to do anything. I also think veterans are going to want to play here. There is no reason to think Beal won't be effective until his mid 30's. We also don't know the long-term situation with Ayton. We have more than enough to at least stay competitive. The odds statistically are stacked against any of those picks mattering. If something catastrophic happens and it's top 3? That's different.

 

[Phrazbit]

We still have every other 1st round pick and I don't put it past Ishbia to do anything. I also think veterans are going to want to play here. There is no reason to think Beal won't be effective until his mid 30's. We also don't know the long-term situation with Ayton. We have more than enough to at least stay competitive. The odds statistically are stacked against any of those picks mattering. If something catastrophic happens and it's top 3? That different.

An obvious decline over the last 2 years and a long injury history are strong reasons to think Beal won't be effective into his mid 30s. I like that trade but it wasn't built for the long haul.

We're talking about picks that won't convey for 5-7 years, to stay competitive we're going to have a pittance of picks and largely rely on minimum contracts in the interim.

Seriously... there are REALLY strong odds that we're going to be pretty raggedy by the time we see the cost.

If there are some shiny trophies in the case, then... who cares?

But it doesn't take something "catastrophic" for an old, heavily leveraged team to slip into the bottom half of the league, especially given that our older guys have already been riddled with injuries.

 

[Covert Rain]

An obvious decline over the last 2 years and a long injury history are strong reasons to think Beal won't be effective into his mid 30s. I like that trade but it wasn't built for the long haul.

We're talking about picks that won't convey for 5-7 years, to stay competitive we're going to have a pittance of picks and largely rely on minimum contracts in the interim.

Seriously... there are REALLY strong odds that we're going to be pretty raggedy by the time we see the cost.

If there are some shiny trophies in the case, then... who cares?

But it doesn't take something "catastrophic" for an old, heavily leveraged team to slip into the bottom half of the league, especially given that our older guys have already been riddled with injuries.

The Beal trade was for post KD IMO should the KD thing not pan out. Obviously, multiple injuries could change everything. Outside of that I don't see a top 3 pick conveying. Every other pick is not nothing. If they can attract veterans to come here it's not nothing. You would have to really think the Suns are going to bottom out.

 

[Phrazbit]

The Beal trade was for post KD IMO should the KD thing not pan out. Obviously, multiple injuries could change everything. Outside of that I don't see a top 3 pick conveying. Every other pick is not nothing. If they can attract veterans to come here it's not nothing. You would have to really think the Suns are going to bottom out.

I'm saying I think we won't be a playoff team, where in that "non-playoff" group we land... I dunno, but we're going to be sending out good picks on the back end of this.

 

[Covert Rain]

I'm saying I think we won't be a playoff team, where in that "non-playoff" group we land... I dunno, but we're going to be sending out good picks on the back end of this.

We are sort of saying the same thing. I am saying competitive which means playoff territory but maybe just outside. I didn't mean title contenders. That means they LIKELY won't be picks that statistically are going to matter.

 

[Phrazbit]

We are sort of saying the same thing. I am saying competitive which means playoff territory but maybe just outside. I didn't mean title contenders. That means they LIKELY won't be picks that statistically are going to matter.

Giving away your picks in seasons you don't make the playoffs is a painful affair. I think those picks matter. I think you're a bit too caught up on if a guy is an all-star.

 

[Covert Rain]

Giving away your picks in seasons you don't make the playoffs is a painful affair. I think those picks matter. I think you're a bit too caught up on if a guy is an all-star.

If the Suns are headed down the tubes the object isn't to draft journeyman type guys. The idea is to win the lottery and draft a franchise changing player. All I am saying is that assuming the Suns are not so bad that they win the lottery? The odds are stacked against you. Not at all saying it's impossible.

 

[Mainstreet]

The Suns need to nail the Miami approach to finding undrafted free agents.

Right now I have seen no indication the Suns front office has embraced more scouting or the draft. At the moment, it seems Mat Ishbia supports James Jones approach to building a team.

Of course, Booker, Beal and Durant have to stay healthy and Ayton has to finally realize his potential for the Suns to contend.

How I wish the Suns had an up-and-coming young player like Christian Braun.

 

[clyde2tw]

The team as composed was not going anywhere, particularly with Monty as the coach. So, we have a much better chance to win the title.

 

[Chaplin]

The Suns need to nail the Miami approach to finding undrafted free agents.

Right now I have seen no indication the Suns front office has embraced more scouting or the draft. At the moment, it seems Mat Ishbia supports James Jones approach to building a team.

Of course, Booker, Beal and Durant have to stay healthy and Ayton has to finally realize his potential for the Suns to contend.

How I wish the Suns had an up-and-coming young player like Christian Braun.

The Suns don’t value actual draft picks. Thinking they are going to load up with impactful undrafted players is wishful thinking.