KD and Beal Trade Recap

Ouchie-Z-Clown

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That's really no more than average. I tried finding data on how many games the average starter misses a season and the closest I found was research someone did looking at every All-Star over a 3 year period, which was 48 players in total, and of those 48 they averaged 28 DNP's a season.


I'm not saying Cam J is a star but that's a fairly decent picture of how much time players miss and Cam's is particularly skewed due to missing half this season with injuries.

Did you read that article or just read the headline? I couldn’t read past the paywall, but the part i could read essentially talked about an average for a single season. And in that season 5 of the players included in data set missed the entire season. Sorry, that seems to be the most meaningless data-driven argument I’ve ever seen.
 

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Did you read that article or just read the headline? I couldn’t read past the paywall, but the part i could read essentially talked about an average for a single season. And in that season 5 of the players included in data set missed the entire season. Sorry, that seems to be the most meaningless data-driven argument I’ve ever seen.

I did misread the data presented as I thought he used data over the last 3 years as he did to gain a substantial sample size to measure but even still, it says a lot.

You're allowing 1 season where Cam J missed half the season to skew your sample but want to dismiss that piece because 5 of 48 players missed a whole season. So I'm not surprised you would dismiss the whole thing because it doesn't help paint the picture you want it to.
 

Ouchie-Z-Clown

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Here’s better data:


From 1998-2018 average player missed 18% of games. That’s trended higher (about 20% as of 2019). So 5-7% difference. Cam misses 4-6 games per season than average nba player. And that’s in his first four years. I’m betting that he’s actually missing even a greater percentage of games than his first-four-year peers as those averages are likely skewed by numbers of older players who break down more frequently. Which means, for his vintage in hthe nba he’s likely considerably more injury prone than his peers. By way of comparison, Durant missed 28 games over his first 7 seasons.
 

Ouchie-Z-Clown

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I did misread the data presented as I thought he used data over the last 3 years as he did to gain a substantial sample size to measure but even still, it says a lot.

You're allowing 1 season where Cam J missed half the season to skew your sample but want to dismiss that piece because 5 of 48 players missed a whole season. So I'm not surprised you would dismiss the whole thing because it doesn't help paint the picture you want it to.
You’re using a single season to try to make a point. I just provided you 20 seasons of data that show how off the data you were relying on was.
 

Ouchie-Z-Clown

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I did misread the data presented as I thought he used data over the last 3 years as he did to gain a substantial sample size to measure but even still, it says a lot.

You're allowing 1 season where Cam J missed half the season to skew your sample but want to dismiss that piece because 5 of 48 players missed a whole season. So I'm not surprised you would dismiss the whole thing because it doesn't help paint the picture you want it to.
Also, just conversationally, do you not consider cam Johnson to be injury prone? That’s pretty much been the only knock on the kid, but it’s been pretty well accepted on this board.
 

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You’re using a single season to try to make a point. I just provided you 20 seasons of data that show how off the data you were relying on was.

I was looking specifically for data on starters and couldn't find that, I could find the same thing about average missed games but that's much different when comparing why a rookie misses a game and why a starting PF misses a game, I'd think you'd agree there.

Rookies and young players often miss time for various reasons, healthy scratches essentially, and it wasn't long ago that healthy scratches were viewed negatively and not really allowed in the NBA. Look back to when the Spurs started doing it, it caused our former owner to do a chicken dance that haunted him, and by extension Suns fans, for 20 years.

The only thing the data shows is players are missing more time now than 10-20 years ago. There's numerous reasons why that may be, unless we dive deep though and investigate a lot of the DNP's it's tough to say for certain one way or the other.
 

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Also, just conversationally, do you not consider cam Johnson to be injury prone? That’s pretty much been the only knock on the kid, but it’s been pretty well accepted on this board.

More susceptible to injury, yes, but I wouldn't label him injury prone yet. I think that's still be determined. Possibly in another year or two. His first 2 seasons were so condensed and unusual I don't think we can gather much from them.
 

Ouchie-Z-Clown

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I was looking specifically for data on starters and couldn't find that, I could find the same thing about average missed games but that's much different when comparing why a rookie misses a game and why a starting PF misses a game, I'd think you'd agree there.

Rookies and young players often miss time for various reasons, healthy scratches essentially, and it wasn't long ago that healthy scratches were viewed negatively and not really allowed in the NBA. Look back to when the Spurs started doing it, it caused our former owner to do a chicken dance that haunted him, and by extension Suns fans, for 20 years.

The only thing the data shows is players are missing more time now than 10-20 years ago. There's numerous reasons why that may be, unless we dive deep though and investigate a lot of the DNP's it's tough to say for certain one way or the other.
I don’t think it’s right to look for data in regards to starters when talking about cam due to the fact he’s only been a starter for a year, really. So the majority of his time he’s not been a starter.

But that’s a good point about healthy scratches, albeit that’s much more commonplace in current seasons than in the past. The vet reason sarve chicken-danced was because what the spurs were doing was so unusual back in the nash era. If anything the inclusion of healthy scratches in the data being discussed undermines your argument as the removal of same would lower the number of average games missed due solely injury and we know cam’s missed games weren’t healthy scratches, they were due to injury so again his % would be even higher than the norm.
 

Ouchie-Z-Clown

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More susceptible to injury, yes, but I wouldn't label him injury prone yet. I think that's still be determined. Possibly in another year or two. His first 2 seasons were so condensed and unusual I don't think we can gather much from them.
Fair.
 

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Isn't the very definition of "injury prone" being more susceptible to injury? :shrug:

I don't believe so. Injury prone is proven over a much longer stretch while being susceptible to injuries is based on someone's medical history, in that they've suffered injuries that have a high chance of causing issues down the road but haven't been a hindrance as of yet. Like if someone missed a season because of a broken collarbone, I wouldn't say they're susceptible to injury but if they're had issues with their hips, like Cam has, then that could lead to potential issues down the road. If he's regularly suffering from injuries then I'd say he was injury prone but he hasn't been in a key role in the league long enough to say he's injury prone yet, IMO. If he continues missing 25+ games a year then I'd give him that label but he's only been in a regular rotation role for 2 1/2 seasons. That's not enough to determine whether he's injury prone or not, it's not even 1 full contract.
 

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I don't believe so. Injury prone is proven over a much longer stretch while being susceptible to injuries is based on someone's medical history, in that they've suffered injuries that have a high chance of causing issues down the road but haven't been a hindrance as of yet. Like if someone missed a season because of a broken collarbone, I wouldn't say they're susceptible to injury but if they're had issues with their hips, like Cam has, then that could lead to potential issues down the road. If he's regularly suffering from injuries then I'd say he was injury prone but he hasn't been in a key role in the league long enough to say he's injury prone yet, IMO. If he continues missing 25+ games a year then I'd give him that label but he's only been in a regular rotation role for 2 1/2 seasons. That's not enough to determine whether he's injury prone or not, it's not even 1 full contract.
Sorry, but you're describing the same thing. Injury prone means that you are prone to injury. And what is the definition of "prone"?
 

Ouchie-Z-Clown

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Sorry, but you're describing the same thing. Injury prone means that you are prone to injury. And what is the definition of "prone"?
To me it’s a simple: on average does he miss more games each season due to injury than normal? He does.
 

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For me it’s how the injury was caused. Greg Oden, Amare and Derrick Rose…injury prone.

Cam Johnson on a random screen and bumping knees not injury prone. KD with someone sliding into his knee, not injury prone. Those can happen to anyone in the league.

KD rolling his ankle during a layup, well damn idk about that one LOL
 
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Here’s better data:


From 1998-2018 average player missed 18% of games. That’s trended higher (about 20% as of 2019). So 5-7% difference. Cam misses 4-6 games per season than average nba player. And that’s in his first four years. I’m betting that he’s actually missing even a greater percentage of games than his first-four-year peers as those averages are likely skewed by numbers of older players who break down more frequently. Which means, for his vintage in hthe nba he’s likely considerably more injury prone than his peers. By way of comparison, Durant missed 28 games over his first 7 seasons.
There is an argument made that Beal was forced into driving to the basket more, playing through more double teams, etc, as he was the main scorer for a team that did not have a lot of talent scoring. The assumption here is being the third scorer on Phoenix, and rarely playing through double teams, he will have more playing time. Plus, I think the Suns have already been in the mode of load management based on this last season. Coach Vogel is no stranger to this philosophy on a LeBron Lakers team.
 

Ouchie-Z-Clown

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How does that not mean he is susceptible to injury?
Eh, I get what he’s saying. I think it’s splitting hairs, but conceptually I get it. But yeah, it’s also a bit of playing semantics around the topic, to your point.
 

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It's frustrating that this myth persists. Expiring contracts bring value-negative contracts in return. That's what Beal is. He's the sixth-highest paid player in the league, has made the All-NBA third team once, and has struggled to stay healthy. He is the definition of a value-negative contract. It makes sense for the Suns to take him on during their short-term championship window, but they will not be able to do a long-term rebuild around value-negative contracts.
Every year his contract will look more reasonable. The worst thing about his contract is the NTC. If we want to do a long term rebuild, it will be Booker and KD that we trade to make it happen. Even aging KD will have value.
 
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Every year his contract will look more reasonable. The worst thing about his contract is the NTC. If we want to do a long term rebuild, it will be Booker and KD that we trade to make it happen. Even aging KD will have value.
Booker will retire as a Sun.
 

AzStevenCal

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Every year his contract will look more reasonable. The worst thing about his contract is the NTC. If we want to do a long term rebuild, it will be Booker and KD that we trade to make it happen. Even aging KD will have value.
If KD still has value on the court I don't know why we'd be ready for a long term rebuild? And if he's lost his value on the court I don't see how he'd have trade value other than as an expiring contract? And under the new CBA I can't see too many teams able and willing to absorb 55 Million even if it's just for his last year. I think Booker is the only major asset we'll have (from current players) when it's rebuilding time.
 

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If KD still has value on the court I don't know why we'd be ready for a long term rebuild? And if he's lost his value on the court I don't see how he'd have trade value other than as an expiring contract? And under the new CBA I can't see too many teams able and willing to absorb 55 Million even if it's just for his last year. I think Booker is the only major asset we'll have (from current players) when it's rebuilding time.
Me too. Unless we entertain the idea of a DA resurgence which of course changes everything.
 
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If KD still has value on the court I don't know why we'd be ready for a long term rebuild? And if he's lost his value on the court I don't see how he'd have trade value other than as an expiring contract? And under the new CBA I can't see too many teams able and willing to absorb 55 Million even if it's just for his last year. I think Booker is the only major asset we'll have (from current players) when it's rebuilding time.
I think Ayton and KD would come off the books the same year leaving Book and Beal. Then a season later, it's just Book. So in the meantime, when Ayton and KD may be gone, we could sign a free agent of some significance, or a couple, and play that season with Book, Beal and free agents. Then we decide if we aren't resigning Beal or not. That frees up more money. Plus by then we have 2-3 first round picks that hopefully are on the team at that point.
 
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