KD and Beal Trade Recap

Mainstreet

Cruisin' Mainstreet
Supporting Member
Joined
Oct 19, 2003
Posts
114,010
Reaction score
53,673
The Suns don’t value actual draft picks. Thinking they are going to load up with impactful undrafted players is wishful thinking.

Yeah, it's more likely to resemble James Jones finding the best veteran minimum players available and players that are trying to find a team like Saban Lee.

At some point in time, though, the well will run dry because the Suns have run out of draft picks to trade except come draft day every other draft when they have a first round pick.
 

Ouchie-Z-Clown

I'm better than Mulli!
Joined
Sep 16, 2002
Posts
61,602
Reaction score
54,213
Location
SoCal
It looks and will be really bad if the Suns can't win in the next 2 years. They will have set their franchise back 5 years. I hope they win though.

With that said, I respect them swinging for the fences.
I don’t get this.

Booker
Beal
Lots of cap space when KD hangs it up and cap keep rising
First round picks every other year
 

Ouchie-Z-Clown

I'm better than Mulli!
Joined
Sep 16, 2002
Posts
61,602
Reaction score
54,213
Location
SoCal
I don't see Beal being effective into his mid 30s.

It's pretty likely that some of those picks at the end of the decade are in the top 10. If we win a title before then, awesome, but we've given out some picks that are going to be highly coveted down the road.
Why? His game is skill-based, not due to superior athleticism. I see zero reasonable basis for this projection. I mean you’re entitled to your opinion, I’m just curious what makes you take that position.

And I’ll be kinda surprised if any of the picks are too 10. Book is young. He’s a destination player. Beal is in his prime. When KD contract rolls off there will be cap space. And ishbia will spend big. Can top 10 happen? Sure we’ve 8 or 9 opportunities for that to happen with trades oicks or swaps. But again I don’t see it as being anywhere near a given.
 

Ouchie-Z-Clown

I'm better than Mulli!
Joined
Sep 16, 2002
Posts
61,602
Reaction score
54,213
Location
SoCal
I know Ishbia is willing to do whatever, but we're leveraged to hell and back. It is what it is.

Planning on landing stars as pure free agents isn't a plan, it virtually never happens.

We're going down a very "Isiah Thomas Knicks" path. We've leveraged all our trade capital, next step is overpaying on every contract we sign.

Hopefully we get a title before the butcher comes for the bill.
Pure free agents, maybe not. But in the past 4 years we have landed Paul, Durant, and Beal. That’s a lot stars in a four year span.
 

95pro

ASFN Icon
Joined
May 10, 2007
Posts
12,336
Reaction score
3,922
If we lose out on a bunch of robin Lopezes and markeiff morrises I ain’t worried.

The Lopez’s (brook) help you win and the Morri help you sink. It’s a crap shoot but the Bruce Browns help you win too. Hopefully there is that vet that can help us at a reasonable cost, there’s always that unsung hero for a title team that is actually the winning piece.
 

Phrazbit

ASFN Icon
Joined
Oct 10, 2011
Posts
19,970
Reaction score
10,884
Why? His game is skill-based, not due to superior athleticism. I see zero reasonable basis for this projection. I mean you’re entitled to your opinion, I’m just curious what makes you take that position.

And I’ll be kinda surprised if any of the picks are too 10. Book is young. He’s a destination player. Beal is in his prime. When KD contract rolls off there will be cap space. And ishbia will spend big. Can top 10 happen? Sure we’ve 8 or 9 opportunities for that to happen with trades oicks or swaps. But again I don’t see it as being anywhere near a given.

I explained it in a later post.

Statistically, he is already in decline, he needs to bounce back before I believe he will be effective 4 or 5 years from now. You factor in all those leg injuries... no, I don't see Beal being a stud into his mid 30s.

I'm still for the trade, we had no other way to get a player of his talent.
 

Phrazbit

ASFN Icon
Joined
Oct 10, 2011
Posts
19,970
Reaction score
10,884
Pure free agents, maybe not. But in the past 4 years we have landed Paul, Durant, and Beal. That’s a lot stars in a four year span.

Yeah, and in doing so we chewed through every bit of capital we've got for the next 7 years.

If we lose out on a bunch of robin Lopezes and markeiff morrises I ain’t worried.

We landed some Bookers, Bridges and Johnsons too.

But the real point is, in the likely scenario that we're bad enough to be missing the playoffs it is going to really sting to not even have the pick.

Watching parade highlights would help a lot though.
 

Hoop Head

ASFN Icon
Joined
Feb 4, 2005
Posts
16,557
Reaction score
11,648
Location
Tempe, AZ
I don’t get this.

Booker
Beal
Lots of cap space when KD hangs it up and cap keep rising
First round picks every other year

I don't think you realize how far over the cap we are. KD could retire and have his contract magically disappear from our cap sheet and we'd still be over the salary cap right now, with 5 other players under contract. The cap won't increase more than 10% a year per league rules. I'm pretty sure that was part of the current CBA is that is the max increase going forward because they don't want another issue like what happened years back where it jumped drastically and gave Golden State max cap room. So the idea we'll have actual cap space so long as we're paying Booker and Beal is going to incredibly difficult since both are on supermax deals and they'll combine for $120m in 3 years. The cap is currently $136m, for some perspective.
 

PHI PHX PHAN

Rookie
Joined
Feb 9, 2023
Posts
53
Reaction score
75
Location
Philly
I don’t get this.

Booker
Beal
Lots of cap space when KD hangs it up and cap keep rising
First round picks every other year
I'm glad you said this.
KD's contract is the all or nothing window (3yrs at minimum).
Barring a DA trade, we will still have a Book,Beal,Ayton trio as a core afterwards (plus additional $$$)
The price tag for these next 3 seasons seems steeper to those who still haven't adjusted to being a contender from a non playoff team for a decade.
Most likely none of the picks we traded will have the catastrophic effect folk seem to be worried about.
We have an owner who is willing to account for the risks financially. This is arguably our best chance ever to get a chip.
I'd mortgage 6yrs of assets for a legit 3yr championship window followed by another 2 to 3 years of being in the mix with some adjustments
 

Phrazbit

ASFN Icon
Joined
Oct 10, 2011
Posts
19,970
Reaction score
10,884
The casual reaction to the Suns having no control over their draft for 8 years is confounding. The notion that a pick does not really matter if it isn't in the top 3 or so is insane.

The Suns, for my entire life, have been built on hitting picks in the middle of the first and that INCLUDES the current Suns. Booker, Bridges, Cam Johnson... hitting those picks is the only reason the current roster exists.

Nash, Marion, Amare, Finley... those guys were all taken in under a decade, that list should also include Andre Igoudala, but we stupidly gave the pick away.

The draft matters, unless you're the LA Lakers, you are REQUIRED to have successes in the draft to win. This opportunity, right now, would not be here if not for the success we've had in the draft.
 

PHI PHX PHAN

Rookie
Joined
Feb 9, 2023
Posts
53
Reaction score
75
Location
Philly
I explained it in a later post.

Statistically, he is already in decline, he needs to bounce back before I believe he will be effective 4 or 5 years from now. You factor in all those leg injuries... no, I don't see Beal being a stud into his mid 30s.

I'm still for the trade, we had no other way to get a player of his talent.
Look at the effect that KD had on Book. Now add KD and Book to the impact on Beal's game. This will be the easiest he's had it as far as just putting the ball in the basket. He is the 3rd option, which extends the potential of his effectiveness not diminishes.
I don't see him not being a highly efficient scorer the entirety of his contract
 

nashman

ASFN Icon
Joined
May 3, 2007
Posts
10,556
Reaction score
7,271
Location
Queen Creek, AZ
The casual reaction to the Suns having no control over their draft for 8 years is confounding. The notion that a pick does not really matter if it isn't in the top 3 or so is insane.

The Suns, for my entire life, have been built on hitting picks in the middle of the first and that INCLUDES the current Suns. Booker, Bridges, Cam Johnson... hitting those picks is the only reason the current roster exists.

Nash, Marion, Amare, Finley... those guys were all taken in under a decade, that list should also include Andre Igoudala, but we stupidly gave the pick away.

The draft matters, unless you're the LA Lakers, you are REQUIRED to have successes in the draft to win. This opportunity, right now, would not be here if not for the success we've had in the draft.
You’re entitled to your opinion but it’s just that. Teams can build and win without using the draft especially when you have players and an owner willing to spend! No reason they can’t make trades later in reverse and get some assets as well, 2 draft picks are a shot in the dark especially since we will be good and picks won’t be lottery picks more likely very late picks. We’ve tried the other way for 50+ years, screw it im glad the new owner is actually going for it!
 

elindholm

edited for content
Joined
Sep 14, 2002
Posts
26,938
Reaction score
8,330
Location
L.A. area
From AZ Sports:

"But here’s what they have traded in the superstar deals for Beal and Durant that have also landed them Jordan Goodwin, Isaiah Todd and T.J. Warren (free agent):

Players Dealt​

Chris Paul
Mikal Bridges
Cam Johnson
Jae Crowder
Landry Shamet

Players Received​

Kevin Durant
TJ Warren
Bradley Beal
Jordan Goodwin
Isaiah Todd.

Suns first-round picks owed — Kevin Durant trade​

2023
2025
2027
2029

Suns second-round picks owed — Bradley Beal trade​

2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2030

Pick-swaps​

2024
2026
2028 (in both Durant and Beal trades)
2030"

Also: "The Suns will send the Wizards six second-round picks (2024, 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2030) with four more first-round pick swaps (2024, 2026, 2028, 2030). That kept their 52nd overall pick in hand."

Thank goodness they kept their 2029 second-rounder.
 

elindholm

edited for content
Joined
Sep 14, 2002
Posts
26,938
Reaction score
8,330
Location
L.A. area
Barring a DA trade, we will still have a Book,Beal,Ayton trio as a core afterwards (plus additional $$$)
The price tag for these next 3 seasons seems steeper to those who still haven't adjusted to being a contender from a non playoff team for a decade.

Durant and Ayton are signed through 25-26. Booker and Beal have one year more than that (player option for Beal).

If the Suns don't win a title in the next two seasons, they sure as hell aren't winning one in 25-26, because Durant will be a fossil. So 25-26 is most likely a lost cause.

In the meantime, the Suns will have had to make a decision about Ayton. I suspect they will have traded him, but if not, he'll be due for an extension. If they give him the extension, you can forget about cap space in the summer of 2026, because Beal/Booker/Ayton will be at $150M+ all by themselves -- right around where the cap is projected to be.

Maybe the Suns can keep Ayton until the summer of 2026 and then renounce him. That would probably give them some cap room to work with, but only at the expense of giving up a 27-year-old starting-caliber center for nothing. Seems unlikely.

The Suns' only realistic scenario to rebuild with cap room is in the summer of 2027, once Beal's contract is up. There is no scenario in which the Suns rebuild around Booker, Beal, and cap space. The numbers and the calendar don't add up.
 

Ouchie-Z-Clown

I'm better than Mulli!
Joined
Sep 16, 2002
Posts
61,602
Reaction score
54,213
Location
SoCal
I explained it in a later post.

Statistically, he is already in decline, he needs to bounce back before I believe he will be effective 4 or 5 years from now. You factor in all those leg injuries... no, I don't see Beal being a stud into his mid 30s.

I'm still for the trade, we had no other way to get a player of his talent.
What’s your expectation of him when he’s 33?

I don’t see a guy like that dipping below 20pts/game in 3 years when more shots are becoming available.
 

Ouchie-Z-Clown

I'm better than Mulli!
Joined
Sep 16, 2002
Posts
61,602
Reaction score
54,213
Location
SoCal
Yeah, and in doing so we chewed through every bit of capital we've got for the next 7 years.



We landed some Bookers, Bridges and Johnsons too.

But the real point is, in the likely scenario that we're bad enough to be missing the playoffs it is going to really sting to not even have the pick.

Watching parade highlights would help a lot though.
Except that capital continues to build. So every other year we have a first round pick and we March forward to New Years whose future firsts can be traded. I don’t love the idea of continually kicking draft payment down the road, but if stars keep coming available and the book and Beal draw continues to be strong maybe we flip an expiring KD for another star on a big contract plus the current draft pick plus a future draft pick and swaps. Kind of like how the saints and rams always navigated the salary cap pushing money forward indefinitely. Eventually they’ll have to pay the piper, but they could potentially play this trade away future picks game for aging stars for books entire career. At which point we would be building over anyway and likely go the Oklahoma route of using capspace to reacquire lost oicks by taking on bad contracts.

If you’re willing to be creative you can navigate this and give yourself a good chance to maximize books career and then do what bad teams do reloading with picks/bad contracts. The difference will be we will only be acquiring other teams picks and we likely won’t have half of ours.
 

Ouchie-Z-Clown

I'm better than Mulli!
Joined
Sep 16, 2002
Posts
61,602
Reaction score
54,213
Location
SoCal
I don't think you realize how far over the cap we are. KD could retire and have his contract magically disappear from our cap sheet and we'd still be over the salary cap right now, with 5 other players under contract. The cap won't increase more than 10% a year per league rules. I'm pretty sure that was part of the current CBA is that is the max increase going forward because they don't want another issue like what happened years back where it jumped drastically and gave Golden State max cap room. So the idea we'll have actual cap space so long as we're paying Booker and Beal is going to incredibly difficult since both are on supermax deals and they'll combine for $120m in 3 years. The cap is currently $136m, for some perspective.
If the 10% is true, that brings us to $180 in three years. If you can move Ayton at a relative discount with what you take back you can still have a slot available. If it’s possible to combine Ayton and KDs expiring (I’m seeing y’all report conflicting answers on combining) and a pick or two you’ve created a LOT of cap room for taking back a stars contract.

The point is, for everyone saying “there’s no way out” we just saw with the beak deal that there was an opportunity absokutely no one here thought was even possible, so I’ll believe the suns literally can’t do anything when it actually occurs because the front offices know a lot more about these mechanics than do we, seem a lot more creative than most of our conjecture, and ishbia throws around money like it’s confetti.
 

Ouchie-Z-Clown

I'm better than Mulli!
Joined
Sep 16, 2002
Posts
61,602
Reaction score
54,213
Location
SoCal
The casual reaction to the Suns having no control over their draft for 8 years is confounding. The notion that a pick does not really matter if it isn't in the top 3 or so is insane.

The Suns, for my entire life, have been built on hitting picks in the middle of the first and that INCLUDES the current Suns. Booker, Bridges, Cam Johnson... hitting those picks is the only reason the current roster exists.

Nash, Marion, Amare, Finley... those guys were all taken in under a decade, that list should also include Andre Igoudala, but we stupidly gave the pick away.

The draft matters, unless you're the LA Lakers, you are REQUIRED to have successes in the draft to win. This opportunity, right now, would not be here if not for the success we've had in the draft.
It’s typically a combination. I find it amusing that you’re all or nothing on draft picks and fail to recognize that KJ, Barkley, Paul, KD, and Beal all came via trade. And nash (when he was actually great), chambers, manning, AC green, wayman tisdake, crowder, ainge, all came via free agency.
 

CardsSunsDbacks

Not So Skeptical
Joined
Aug 26, 2012
Posts
9,974
Reaction score
6,257
If the 10% is true, that brings us to $180 in three years. If you can move Ayton at a relative discount with what you take back you can still have a slot available. If it’s possible to combine Ayton and KDs expiring (I’m seeing y’all report conflicting answers on combining) and a pick or two you’ve created a LOT of cap room for taking back a stars contract.

The point is, for everyone saying “there’s no way out” we just saw with the beak deal that there was an opportunity absokutely no one here thought was even possible, so I’ll believe the suns literally can’t do anything when it actually occurs because the front offices know a lot more about these mechanics than do we, seem a lot more creative than most of our conjecture, and ishbia throws around money like it’s confetti.
Going by Real GM estimates it will $157m in three years (21 above current). Of course these estimates are almost always lower than the actual number so it will probably be closer to $165m or so. With Durant's contract coming off it may not be enough to put us significantly under the cap, but it at least keeps us under the 2nd apron where a lot of the restrictions come into effect.
 

Ouchie-Z-Clown

I'm better than Mulli!
Joined
Sep 16, 2002
Posts
61,602
Reaction score
54,213
Location
SoCal
Durant and Ayton are signed through 25-26. Booker and Beal have one year more than that (player option for Beal).

If the Suns don't win a title in the next two seasons, they sure as hell aren't winning one in 25-26, because Durant will be a fossil. So 25-26 is most likely a lost cause.

In the meantime, the Suns will have had to make a decision about Ayton. I suspect they will have traded him, but if not, he'll be due for an extension. If they give him the extension, you can forget about cap space in the summer of 2026, because Beal/Booker/Ayton will be at $150M+ all by themselves -- right around where the cap is projected to be.

Maybe the Suns can keep Ayton until the summer of 2026 and then renounce him. That would probably give them some cap room to work with, but only at the expense of giving up a 27-year-old starting-caliber center for nothing. Seems unlikely.

The Suns' only realistic scenario to rebuild with cap room is in the summer of 2027, once Beal's contract is up. There is no scenario in which the Suns rebuild around Booker, Beal, and cap space. The numbers and the calendar don't add up.
Wait, Ayton and kd contracts expire at the same time? And people don’t see that as a period of opportunity? Regardless of where the cap rises to at that point losing those two contracts absokutely has to create opportunity for the suns. Though the value of an expiring contract has been dead, i think the new cba has revived it. I mean we’ve seen the Chris Paul corpse contract dealt not once, but twice, for big contract (and picks with poole!) players in the past weeks alone.

Look, I’m no master of the current cba by even a smidge but I think some of you that post morose after morose posts are failing to think creatively about the future. And as I’ve already stated, we’ve already seen a totally unexpected move in the Beal acquisition. I’m willing to enjoy today and wait to see what a new creative, motivated, and loaded with cash owner can come up with in the future to keep the wheels on. Think colangelo would’ve sat on his hands with our structure if had big cash? I think ishbia is cut from similar cloth in terms of turning over every stone and being creative. Whether he’s successful or not, who knows? But I’m optimistic he’s not sitting around lamenting future draft picks and won’t be just shrugging his shoulders in a few years saying “oh no! What have I done?!?”
 

Ouchie-Z-Clown

I'm better than Mulli!
Joined
Sep 16, 2002
Posts
61,602
Reaction score
54,213
Location
SoCal
Going by Real GM estimates it will $157m in three years (21 above current). Of course these estimates are almost always lower than the actual number so it will probably be closer to $165m or so. With Durant's contract coming off it may not be enough to put us significantly under the cap, but it at least keeps us under the 2nd apron where a lot of the restrictions come into effect.
(A) aren’t they usually a LOT more off? The $180 number was just roughly compounding 10%. I see that number accelerating, not slowing in an increasingly global sport. (B) But if it’s durants and Ayton’s contracts coming off and now we also have two more future picks to deal, why couldn’t we be in a sweepstakes for another disgruntled star? Book will be 29, Beal 33 with two big expiring contracts and a higher salary cap and two new future picks. Sounds like a potentially good recipe.
 

GatorAZ

feed hopkins
Joined
Oct 17, 2011
Posts
24,670
Reaction score
17,000
Location
The Giant Toaster
Durant and Ayton are signed through 25-26. Booker and Beal have one year more than that (player option for Beal).

If the Suns don't win a title in the next two seasons, they sure as hell aren't winning one in 25-26, because Durant will be a fossil. So 25-26 is most likely a lost cause.

In the meantime, the Suns will have had to make a decision about Ayton. I suspect they will have traded him, but if not, he'll be due for an extension. If they give him the extension, you can forget about cap space in the summer of 2026, because Beal/Booker/Ayton will be at $150M+ all by themselves -- right around where the cap is projected to be.

Maybe the Suns can keep Ayton until the summer of 2026 and then renounce him. That would probably give them some cap room to work with, but only at the expense of giving up a 27-year-old starting-caliber center for nothing. Seems unlikely.

The Suns' only realistic scenario to rebuild with cap room is in the summer of 2027, once Beal's contract is up. There is no scenario in which the Suns rebuild around Booker, Beal, and cap space. The numbers and the calendar don't add up.
KD *if healthy* will be a top-25 player at worst in 3 years. He came into an entirely new situation mid-season while injured and still put up great numbers despite not looking nearly as good as the numbers suggested. The mid-season blow up deals are unprecedented and starting fresh on the team going forward will give us a better version of KD than we saw last year. And if after two years they go in a different direction that “fossil” will have plenty of value as an expiring. We don’t have picks but we have options.
 

Mainstreet

Cruisin' Mainstreet
Supporting Member
Joined
Oct 19, 2003
Posts
114,010
Reaction score
53,673
I'm not sure if some fans fully appreciate draft picks are like a currency in the NBA to get trades done.

It's not just their value in using them to draft a player, which is important. After all, those "skeletons" have to come from somewhere.

Perhaps it's easier to understand (except when the Suns do have a 1st round draft pick every other season beginning in 2024) they are on a barter system.

Imagine going shopping to fill a need and the only option is to barter players.

There are only so many good players that can be had for the veteran minimum salary.
 
Top