I don't think you're wrong but also do not think the progression one is wrong either. You can achieve success both ways, lighting in a bottle or a growing thunderstorm... our problem to both approaches is our overall drafting
The truth is, the “growing thunderstorm” is becoming archaic. You get a top QB and/or coach (or both) and teams turn around fast these days. Just look at the last 5 superbowls:
Cincy (burrows 2nd year; Taylor 3rd)
Tampa bay (Brady 1st year: arians 2nd)
KC (mahomes 2nd year; Reid 7th)
Rams (Goff 3rd year; Mcvay 2nd)
Philly (Wentz 2nd year; Pederson 2nd)
So it shows that reloading either the QB or the coach (and in some cases both) teams can go from “meh” or awful to the super bowl within 2 years of those major changes. It can be with a young QB (burrow, mahomes, Goff and wentz - though obvious caveat with wentz due to his injury, but that team still went to the super bowl under a second year head coach) or adding a ton Brady (kind of a unique situation, but maybe not so unique
with Manning getting Broncos there in 2nd season and with Rodgers maybe available). Or with a new coach (Taylor, mcvay, Pederson and arians getting their teams there within 3 seasons, 3 of which did it in two seasons, Reid the only outlier). True Super Bowl turnarounds happen quickly these days.