Seahawks at Cardinals gameday thread 9-25-25

[gimpy]

I'm sorry, I don't think you can put that on Wilson, unless he ran the wrong route. . Looks like he had a step or two on the defense. QB has to make the throw there, and he did not.
Looks like the qb has a pretty clean pocket and chose to leave it. The way I see it, bad quarterbacking decision, which, I think, has been/is his whole problem.

 

[Garthshort]

Not sure about the pocket, but I like KM better when he moves out of the pocket, because:
1. Run/pass option.
2. Less chance of the pass being knocked down at the LOS.

If we want a pocket passer, we need a new QB. And, watching the Pitt/MN game Carson Wentz will probably be available.

 

[WisconsinCard]

It's both really, I posted this play in the Kyler thread. The ball should have more on it, no real excuse for their not to be. But also Mike has seen enough underthrown Kyler passes to adjust to this in the air better.

It was a terrible pass no debating that. He is terribly inaccurate on the move, and probably why they don't roll him out more, which several here have criticized Petzings's play calling.

 

[BooksOrangePlanet]

It was a terrible pass no debating that. He is terribly inaccurate on the move, and probably why they don't roll him out more, which several here have criticized Petzings's play calling.

true - and murray has the speed to get more separation (on the roll outs) which would allow him to plant his feet better but he usually stays just one step away and forces the throw

 

[Dayman]

NextGenStats has Kyler with a Time to Throw of 2.37 seconds in this game. It's the second fastest Time to Throw in the league so far this season. And a lot of that was on a 4 man rush.

 

[kerouac9]

NextGenStats has Kyler with a Time to Throw of 2.37 seconds in this game. It's the second fastest Time to Throw in the league so far this season. And a lot of that was on a 4 man rush.

A lot of that is him immediately going to the check down.

 

[Dayman]

A lot of that is him immediately going to the check down.

I'm sure that is a large part of it.

Also, our Oline got worked over by a very good Seattle Dline.

 

[Snakester]

We got a #1 overall pick at QB.
We got a #4 overall pick at WR.
We got a top 3 in the NFL receiving TE.

Why do we pass for less than 200 yards a game?
If I were Mike that's the type of questions I would be putting to my coaching staff.

And we have good running backs. Petzing needs to open up the offense and get the ball downfield more. Murray has the arm. Start throwing at least ten passes a game 20 or more yards down field. Everyone is playing us up to stop our short game. If we don’t start stretching the field it’s going to be a long season and not in a good way.

 

[WisconsinCard]

And we have good running backs. Petzing needs to open up the offense and get the ball downfield more. Murray has the arm. Start throwing at least ten passes a game 20 or more yards down field. Everyone is playing us up to stop our short game. If we don’t start stretching the field it’s going to be a long season and not in a good way.

Doesn't matter the call if your QB isn't able/willing to throw it down field. Only way would be to have every eligible receiver run 20 yards down field. No OC is designing plays like that

People continually think it is the OC calling these short passes, but as you know it's K1's choice. And for whatever reason he's just not willing to throw the ball deep very often

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

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That’s just weird. Don’t think I’ve ever seen that.

Still a poorly thrown pass by Kyler.

 

[Russ Smith]

Looks like he's doing exactly what he's taught. He leveraging the DB right out of the play. If K1 meant to throw it short he would have put more air under it to allow Wilson to adjust to the ball. IMO

That's a poor pass in my book.

You gotta watch the video breakdown in the Kyler thread from Warner. He's REALLY clear on that play and he's all over Wilson not Kyler. The first mistake is at the snap. SEA brings one more rusher than we can block so Kyler has to get the ball out quickly or bail right because Benson takes the guy coming up the middle and that leaves the guy coming from Kylers left unblocked. the hot receiver is, Wilson, but he doesn't do what he's supposed to do and sit down in the open spot and give Kyler the hot throw. He runs the original route. So Kyler sees the pressure and bails out to the right.

As Wilson is coming across the field he continues to run the route deeper and deeper. It's not clear if he even knows they blitzed, which he should know. So if you draw a line from where Kyler is running to where Wilson is running that line is getting longer and longer when he should be in scramble drill and either cutting straight across or even better working back to Kyler. Warner says it multiple times. that should be a completion, but Wilson didn't make the right read off the snap and then didn't adjust his route to help Kyler he just kept running.

Now in a perfect world while running right kyler can wing that ball down there and he still amost does, but the throw is 5-10 yards longer than it should have been because Wilson didn't do this job.
it's at the very beginning of the Kurt video he can't be more clear it was Wilson's fault

 

[Russ Smith]

It's both really, I posted this play in the Kyler thread. The ball should have more on it, no real excuse for their not to be. But also Mike has seen enough underthrown Kyler passes to adjust to this in the air better.

Ok but the problem is now that we have the Kurt Warner video we can conclude that what you posted in the Kyler thread is actually wrong. Unless you're convinced you know more about football than Kurt Warner?

I'm not arguing that I know more than you or vice versa I'm arguing neither one of us is in a position to say Kurt Warner is wrong. But Kurt saw the exact same play you did, in All 22, and spends several minutes calling out Michael Wilson for how poorly he did on that play. First off not realizing the blitz is coming unblocked from his side and he's the hot read so he should break off his route. Second not realizing because he didn't run the hot route, Kyler had to bail right and so Wilson should be adjusting HIS route to be shallower so the throw on the run is easier.

i urge you to watch that video and then come back and answer do you still after watching that video think that play is Kylers' fault? Because if you do, it will be pretty telling to me.

 

[Russ Smith]

FYI I said Benson I thnk it's actually DeMercado on that play, whoever it is did the blitz pickup perfectly took the inside guy allowing Kyler to bail right away from the free runner

 

[WisconsinCard]

You gotta watch the video breakdown in the Kyler thread from Warner. He's REALLY clear on that play and he's all over Wilson not Kyler. The first mistake is at the snap. SEA brings one more rusher than we can block so Kyler has to get the ball out quickly or bail right because Benson takes the guy coming up the middle and that leaves the guy coming from Kylers left unblocked. the hot receiver is, Wilson, but he doesn't do what he's supposed to do and sit down in the open spot and give Kyler the hot throw. He runs the original route. So Kyler sees the pressure and bails out to the right.

As Wilson is coming across the field he continues to run the route deeper and deeper. It's not clear if he even knows they blitzed, which he should know. So if you draw a line from where Kyler is running to where Wilson is running that line is getting longer and longer when he should be in scramble drill and either cutting straight across or even better working back to Kyler. Warner says it multiple times. that should be a completion, but Wilson didn't make the right read off the snap and then didn't adjust his route to help Kyler he just kept running.

Now in a perfect world while running right kyler can wing that ball down there and he still amost does, but the throw is 5-10 yards longer than it should have been because Wilson didn't do this job.
it's at the very beginning of the Kurt video he can't be more clear it was Wilson's fault

Can't find it, can you post a link?

 

[Russ Smith]

Can't find it, can you post a link?

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[SoonerLou]

That’s just weird. Don’t think I’ve ever seen that.

Still a poorly thrown pass by Kyler.

Eh. Its a throw on the run with pressure in his face/corner blitzing his blind side.

Its floated in a way that all he has to do is run under it. I've seen several plays completed today just like it.

We're just really bad (on offense).

 

[WisconsinCard]

Ok but the problem is now that we have the Kurt Warner video we can conclude that what you posted in the Kyler thread is actually wrong. Unless you're convinced you know more about football than Kurt Warner?

I'm not arguing that I know more than you or vice versa I'm arguing neither one of us is in a position to say Kurt Warner is wrong. But Kurt saw the exact same play you did, in All 22, and spends several minutes calling out Michael Wilson for how poorly he did on that play. First off not realizing the blitz is coming unblocked from his side and he's the hot read so he should break off his route. Second not realizing because he didn't run the hot route, Kyler had to bail right and so Wilson should be adjusting HIS route to be shallower so the throw on the run is easier.

i urge you to watch that video and then come back and answer do you still after watching that video think that play is Kylers' fault? Because if you do, it will be pretty telling to me.

He didn't exonerate Kyler tho. I took it there was plenty of blame on that one, like both had a part in it.

 

[daves]

@daves why you disagree with this post? I thought you even wrote about it once.

Yes, NFL analytics suggest a team should go for the two-point conversion when down 14 points and scoring a touchdown, because it provides a statistically better chance to win the game rather than force overtime. By succeeding on the two-point attempt, the team would then only need one touchdown and an extra point to win. If the two-point attempt fails, a team can still go for two after their next touchdown to tie the game.

I'm a huge proponent of going for two at the first opportunity when down 15 late in the game. You MUST gain the information regarding whether you need one more score or two more scores as early as possible; kicking an XP early and leaving an 8-point deficit for later and HOPING you'll get the 2-point conversion later is an objectively horrible choice.

In the Cards' situation vs. Seattle, a successful 2-point conversion would be irrelevant unless the Cards subsequently prevented a Seahawks FG. A successful conversion would put more pressure on Seattle to score that FG, but I doubt that "more pressure" would affect their odds of success.

So basically in the hypothetical scenario where the Cards prevent the Seattle FG, you'd be trading the odds of winning in overtime (presumably 50-50, though based on how the 4th quarter went, I'd be inclined to give the advantage to the Cards) for the odds of succeeding on the 2-point conversion.

I don't know where you found your numbers, but what I've seen is that success on 2-point conversions is trending downwards, and was far less than 50% in 2024. Further, the Cards are especially bad at short yardage conversions since Murray cannot or will not sneak the ball, and Conner is out. They had already failed on short yardage earlier in the game. I wouldn't needlessly bet the game on the Cards gaining 2 yards on one play.

From an analytics perspective, if the odds of succeeding on a 2-point conversion were significantly better than 50%, I'd be in favor of doing it almost every time except in specific late game scenarios. Expected value wins in the long run.

 

[BritCard]

A lot of that is him immediately going to the check down.

Absolutely this. Considering Darnold had 40% more pressure than Kyler.

 

[BritCard]

Ok but the problem is now that we have the Kurt Warner video we can conclude that what you posted in the Kyler thread is actually wrong. Unless you're convinced you know more about football than Kurt Warner?

I'm not arguing that I know more than you or vice versa I'm arguing neither one of us is in a position to say Kurt Warner is wrong. But Kurt saw the exact same play you did, in All 22, and spends several minutes calling out Michael Wilson for how poorly he did on that play. First off not realizing the blitz is coming unblocked from his side and he's the hot read so he should break off his route. Second not realizing because he didn't run the hot route, Kyler had to bail right and so Wilson should be adjusting HIS route to be shallower so the throw on the run is easier.

i urge you to watch that video and then come back and answer do you still after watching that video think that play is Kylers' fault? Because if you do, it will be pretty telling to me.

I literally posted this exact play in the Kyler thread and said that Wilson should make the catch.

What Kurt says is that Kyler is throwing it to the flat and Wilson turns upfield, well Wilson will be coached to turn upfield when he beats his man. That's kind of the point of playing WR and Kyler knows this. Considering the space Wilson is moving into why would you throw the ball for Wilson to stay on the same line? It's Kyler's job to lead him man knowing he's going to turn upfield.

Wilson should have done better adjusting to the ball, but also he was expecting to be led.

 

[SoonerLou]

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Also its just one route, but man MHJ is struggling on a key 3rd down play at the bottom.

Glad he finished the game strong.

 

[Cardinal88]

Also its just one route, but man MHJ is struggling on a key 3rd down play at the bottom.

Glad he finished the game strong.

I get what you are saying but how is that not illegal contact? Isn't the rule 5 yards? The defensive player makes contact at 5 yards and maintains if for another 5 yards.

 

[Russ Smith]

I literally posted this exact play in the Kyler thread and said that Wilson should make the catch.

What Kurt says is that Kyler is throwing it to the flat and Wilson turns upfield, well Wilson will be coached to turn upfield when he beats his man. That's kind of the point of playing WR and Kyler knows this. Considering the space Wilson is moving into why would you throw the ball for Wilson to stay on the same line? It's Kyler's job to lead him man knowing he's going to turn upfield.

Wilson should have done better adjusting to the ball, but also he was expecting to be led.

So you either didn't watch the video or you're just ignoring what Warner actually said.

He clearly said Wilson was supposed to break off his route and stop in the open area to give Kyler a hot read throw to beat the free runnning blitzer from his left who I think is Witherspoon(?). Because he didn't do that, the entire play breaks down, Kyler has to bail right to buy time to throw, and then again Wilson doesn't do what hes' supposed to do which is help his QB and instead he keeps running progressively deeper making the throw harder.

The reason Wilson doesn't catch the ball is he ran the route too deep and then couldn't get back. Yes it's not a perfect throw but the point is Wilson is supposed to HELP the QB there and he did everything wrong from literally the snap.

If you watched the video Warner is VERY clear on that.

 

[Chopper0080]

That’s just weird. Don’t think I’ve ever seen that.

Still a poorly thrown pass by Kyler.

Brady was talking about in a scramble drill he told his WRs "just go deep". I wonder if Wilson saw the scramble and angled his route when Kyler was just trying to hit him on his current path.

However you want to dice it, when almost every WR is miscommunicating with the QB, some of it is on the QB. Just another issue Kyler has to overcome. His WRs have no idea what he is going to do with the ball at times.

 

[Chopper0080]

Eh. Its a throw on the run with pressure in his face/corner blitzing his blind side.

Its floated in a way that all he has to do is run under it. I've seen several plays completed today just like it.

We're just really bad (on offense).

Weak arm is the biggest issue I see with the throw.