I'd rather gamble on John Wall than Chris Paul. Ideally we'll avoid all of those guys though. With Conley and Holiday both off the table, or at least that's what the latest word was on them, the only overpaid PG I'd gamble on would be Jeff Teague because he's only got 1 year left on his deal for $19-20 million. I don't know if Minnesota is interested in keeping him or not. They're at the tax line already and that's before resigning any of their free agents like Tyus Jones, Derrick Rose, and Taj Gibson. I believe they have 1 or 2 other FA's as well but I don't recall who those others are. They can't resign anyone for more than the league minimum without hitting the tax so a trade that brings in Teague could give them some breathing room and us a PG. Teague for Warren would give them about $10 million they could spend before hitting the tax, which would allow them to resign 1 of their FA's, maybe 2.
I'd rather try to get Jones to sign with us first though. I don't think it's a sure thing they match any offer he gets. There is even a chance they don't extend the qualifying offer because they don't plan on matching.