Extension for Alex Len?

[AzStevenCal]

If we sign him for $15M I think he would be one of the worst contracts in the league currently. Almost worse than Mozgov signing.

I would take Tristian Thompson at the max over Len at $15M. And that's despite knowing that Thompson is garbage at everything except rebounding but at least he's durable and there's at least one valued NBA attribute that he brings every game consistently.

This kid has done absolutely nothing so far in his career. I'm fine with paying based on potential but $15M based on potential? Heck no. $12M at the very max, if not let him be somebody else's problem. We have Chandler for the next several years anyway at C.

And if we don't offer him that much he'll likely end up elsewhere and you and several others will be ripping the organization for being cheap. 15 per is nothing in today's NBA. The only reason he might not be worth that much is if you're seriously worried about longterm injury issues, and I can't argue for or against that point. But as a player, even at this stage of his development, 15 million per year is peanuts for a starting center. There will be plenty of backup big men making that much in the next year or two.

 

[SirStefan32]

I am with Steven on this. Injury concerns aside, $15M for a starting Center who is not a complete stiff is not really bad at all.

 

[elindholm]

To me, the question isn't whether Len is "worth" $15M/yr in the current market, but whether that's the best way for the Suns to spend that kind of money in the pursuit of building a good NBA team. I think the answer is probably No. Len is a mediocre backup center with health issues, a poor man's Tiago Splitter. He's someone who is never going to command playing time, and will instead receive it only in the name of "development," as a courtesy, or out of a desire to play a traditional lineup for tradition's sake. Even the Len champions on this board can probably think of very few occasions in which the Suns were struggling with him on the bench and there was any rational reason to believe that "They have to put Len back in" would be part of the solution.

There are other teams in the league, I'm sure, who would pay Len $15M/yr. But are there good teams who would give him that money and then actually use him, when push comes to shove? I doubt it. So if the Suns are aspiring to be a good team -- that's a big "if," of course -- then it doesn't make sense to extend Len. For what he brings, if the Suns really need the position of "stiff white center" filled, they can always find someone nearly as good for 2/3 the price or less. And there's a solid chance they'll realize that they don't need the position at all.

 

[GatorAZ]

The basis of a Len extension is one impressive 25-game streak in 3 years no?

 

[Chaplin]

To me, the question isn't whether Len is "worth" $15M/yr in the current market, but whether that's the best way for the Suns to spend that kind of money in the pursuit of building a good NBA team. I think the answer is probably No. Len is a mediocre backup center with health issues, a poor man's Tiago Splitter. He's someone who is never going to command playing time, and will instead receive it only in the name of "development," as a courtesy, or out of a desire to play a traditional lineup for tradition's sake. Even the Len champions on this board can probably think of very few occasions in which the Suns were struggling with him on the bench and there was any rational reason to believe that "They have to put Len back in" would be part of the solution.

There are other teams in the league, I'm sure, who would pay Len $15M/yr. But are there good teams who would give him that money and then actually use him, when push comes to shove? I doubt it. So if the Suns are aspiring to be a good team -- that's a big "if," of course -- then it doesn't make sense to extend Len. For what he brings, if the Suns really need the position of "stiff white center" filled, they can always find someone nearly as good for 2/3 the price or less. And there's a solid chance they'll realize that they don't need the position at all.

You just love Tiago Splitter, don't you?

 

[JCSunsfan]

To me, the question isn't whether Len is "worth" $15M/yr in the current market, but whether that's the best way for the Suns to spend that kind of money in the pursuit of building a good NBA team. I think the answer is probably No. Len is a mediocre backup center with health issues, a poor man's Tiago Splitter. He's someone who is never going to command playing time, and will instead receive it only in the name of "development," as a courtesy, or out of a desire to play a traditional lineup for tradition's sake. Even the Len champions on this board can probably think of very few occasions in which the Suns were struggling with him on the bench and there was any rational reason to believe that "They have to put Len back in" would be part of the solution.

There are other teams in the league, I'm sure, who would pay Len $15M/yr. But are there good teams who would give him that money and then actually use him, when push comes to shove? I doubt it. So if the Suns are aspiring to be a good team -- that's a big "if," of course -- then it doesn't make sense to extend Len. For what he brings, if the Suns really need the position of "stiff white center" filled, they can always find someone nearly as good for 2/3 the price or less. And there's a solid chance they'll realize that they don't need the position at all.

Wow. Are we watching the same player? This evaluation seems over the top in its pessimistic view of Len. Just his defensive presence on the floor changes the game completely. It does not show up on stats often, but you can see it when you watch.

 

[Phrazbit]

I disagree JC. Granted, the team was terrible last year but Len's presence on either end was rarely noteworthy. Conventional stats do not portray him as a good defender, metric stats don't either. Even if I were to concede he is mediocre on that end, mediocre defense does not make up for his abysmal offensive returns. In the modern NBA, if you're going to be a lumping white guy with bad hands and terrible shooting ability then you'd better be a monster defender and rebounder, and I just don't see that kind of potential.

And again, I keep asking this of those who support extending him now, what number are you worried he will get in a year that makes 15 mil right now seem like wisdom? Even if he made massive leap in his playing ability, we'd probably be looking at like 20 mil a year to keep him, under the current cap that is a negligible difference over 15 mil. Meanwhile, if he does not make strides in his development, or gets injured again (IMO both prospects are far more likely than stardom) that 15 mil a year would be a disaster.

 

[leclerc]

As long as he does not get offended and pulls a JJ et al. on us.

 

[JCSunsfan]

I disagree JC. Granted, the team was terrible last year but Len's presence on either end was rarely noteworthy. Conventional stats do not portray him as a good defender, metric stats don't either. Even if I were to concede he is mediocre on that end, mediocre defense does not make up for his abysmal offensive returns. In the modern NBA, if you're going to be a lumping white guy with bad hands and terrible shooting ability then you'd better be a monster defender and rebounder, and I just don't see that kind of potential.

And again, I keep asking this of those who support extending him now, what number are you worried he will get in a year that makes 15 mil right now seem like wisdom? Even if he made massive leap in his playing ability, we'd probably be looking at like 20 mil a year to keep him, under the current cap that is a negligible difference over 15 mil. Meanwhile, if he does not make strides in his development, or gets injured again (IMO both prospects are far more likely than stardom) that 15 mil a year would be a disaster.

I think we are arguing right by each other. One discussion has to do with his present value and potential. There is significant disagreement on that.

The other has to do with a very specific question about whether we should sign him to an extension NOW. That is the question you keep asking. I am still very optimistic about his present value and future potential, however, I do not think that it is necessary to sign him to an extension now. We will still control him in restricted free agency and we will know better his value a year from now. I do not think there will enough of a discount in signing him now to justify doing it. If he plays well this year, he will still likely be a 15 million $ player. So there seems to be very little risk in waiting, but maybe more risk in signing him now given his injury history.

 

[AzStevenCal]

If he plays well this year, he will still likely be a 15 million $ player. So there seems to be very little risk in waiting, but maybe more risk in signing him now given his injury history.

And this is where I disagree with you. If he plays exactly as he has played (at center) the past 2 seasons, he'll get 15 per somewhere IMO. If he plays well, he'll get the max or near it. And I don't mean superstar well, if he just does for us consistently what he's already done for us occasionally, he'll draw that kind of money.

He's a mobile big man that can defend bigs on the block and in space. He was abused by the more mobile power forwards last season and might be a liability defensively when we face teams that don't play a true big man but that's true of most centers these days.

 

[Hoop Head]

Sure he's suffered a few injuries but aside from his rookie year and preseason surgeries he hasn't missed significant time. His ankles, which were the concern coming into the league, haven't been an issue since his 1st year when they were surgically repaired before he even played a minute. He only missed 3 or 4 games last year despite having a broken hand. Seeing a guy play through an injury like that because the team needed the depth in the frontcourt was refreshing for a change with how our guards miss games. The training staff wasn't that concerned with him playing through the injury otherwise they wouldn't have ok'd it. He put up better numbers than a lot of centers who got big paydays this last offseason despite playing with 1 hand. If the training staff and front office wasn't concerned with the injury long term why are so many fans? I believe some people have labeled him as injury prone since he had the ankle surgeries before ever playing in the NBA and have refused to back off that label, regardless of what the training staff says, how many games he plays, or how many minutes he's averaging.

 

[JCSunsfan]

And this is where I disagree with you. If he plays exactly as he has played (at center) the past 2 seasons, he'll get 15 per somewhere IMO. If he plays well, he'll get the max or near it. And I don't mean superstar well, if he just does for us consistently what he's already done for us occasionally, he'll draw that kind of money.

He's a mobile big man that can defend bigs on the block and in space. He was abused by the more mobile power forwards last season and might be a liability defensively when we face teams that don't play a true big man but that's true of most centers these days.

Do you really think someone is going to dump 25% of their salary cap money on Alex Len? I am not arguing this, I am just incredulous. I cannot imagine that a team would sink that much of their flexibility in Len when they could have players with similar impact for much less. That number is going to be around 25 million next year.

Its an interesting discussion. I like Len. I do not think we should give up on him. But given the rest of the talent on this team and the number of people that will be demanding the ball, I doubt his offensive production will be huge. His best role this year will be as a rim protector, space eater, and rebounder.

 

[JCSunsfan]

Sure he's suffered a few injuries but aside from his rookie year and preseason surgeries he hasn't missed significant time. His ankles, which were the concern coming into the league, haven't been an issue since his 1st year when they were surgically repaired before he even played a minute. He only missed 3 or 4 games last year despite having a broken hand. Seeing a guy play through an injury like that because the team needed the depth in the frontcourt was refreshing for a change with how our guards miss games. The training staff wasn't that concerned with him playing through the injury otherwise they wouldn't have ok'd it. He put up better numbers than a lot of centers who got big paydays this last offseason despite playing with 1 hand. If the training staff and front office wasn't concerned with the injury long term why are so many fans? I believe some people have labeled him as injury prone since he had the ankle surgeries before ever playing in the NBA and have refused to back off that label, regardless of what the training staff says, how many games he plays, or how many minutes he's averaging.

Its just a bias based on history. Big men with ankle and foot problems usually tend to continue to have them (going all the way back to the days of Bill Walton, Hot Rod Williams, and Sam Bowie). Maybe Len will be different.

 

[AzStevenCal]

Do you really think someone is going to dump 25% of their salary cap money on Alex Len? I am not arguing this, I am just incredulous. I cannot imagine that a team would sink that much of their flexibility in Len when they could have players with similar impact for much less. That number is going to be around 25 million next year.

Its an interesting discussion. I like Len. I do not think we should give up on him. But given the rest of the talent on this team and the number of people that will be demanding the ball, I doubt his offensive production will be huge. His best role this year will be as a rim protector, space eater, and rebounder.

I don't think he'll get 25 unless he just has a fantastic season but I don't think 20 to 22 is out of the question. And while that seems to be a lot compared to the cap, keep in mind that the luxury line is expected to be in the low 120's and that's a far more relevant number when you're looking at it from the perspective of eating up cap space.

Players often get a greater share of the cap than they appear to be worth at the time of the contract because so much of the league is still on older, cheaper deals and the room is there. And when they come up for renewal, the cap will have risen and the next crop gets the contract dollars that will once again look out of line at first glance. It's just the way it always goes.

 

[StreetTruckinTitan]

As long as he does not get offended and pulls a JJ et al. on us.

Id be offended if he doesnt pull a JJ. Just insert Williams into the lineup and youll never miss Lens 10-15 decent games a season. Or anybody for that matter.

 

[Phrazbit]

And this is where I disagree with you. If he plays exactly as he has played (at center) the past 2 seasons, he'll get 15 per somewhere IMO. If he plays well, he'll get the max or near it. And I don't mean superstar well, if he just does for us consistently what he's already done for us occasionally, he'll draw that kind of money.

He's a mobile big man that can defend bigs on the block and in space. He was abused by the more mobile power forwards last season and might be a liability defensively when we face teams that don't play a true big man but that's true of most centers these days.

Then I'd echo Elindholm (and I think I may have touched on this earlier too). If some team wants to pay 15 million+ for the Alex Len we've seen the last 2 years, then fine, let them. Len is currently not an impact player and would struggle for playing time on any quality team. Yeah, a lot of really iffy centers have gotten some really stupid money this summer, and by no coincidence the teams shelling out that cash are among those currently associated with incompetence. We're trying to shed that label.

 

[sunsfan88]

And if we don't offer him that much he'll likely end up elsewhere and you and several others will be ripping the organization for being cheap. 15 per is nothing in today's NBA. The only reason he might not be worth that much is if you're seriously worried about longterm injury issues, and I can't argue for or against that point. But as a player, even at this stage of his development, 15 million per year is peanuts for a starting center. There will be plenty of backup big men making that much in the next year or two.

Just because some other team is willing to offer him $15M/per year, that means we should do it too? In that case, why were so many people here saying "Dragic isn't worth the max, thank god we don't have to pay him" when anther team did give him that? Then we should have just given it to him too. Hell I think everyone can agree that Pat Riley is a lot smarter than any of us basketball wise.

Like someone else said, sure other teams are gonna offer Len that, but not any good teams. Maybe the Nets or the Kings or some team like that might think it's a good idea to give Len that money...I hope it's not us.

He's never gonna become durable. I still remember when a jammed finger made him miss the entire summer league a few years ago. When my 9 year old nephew gets a jammed finger playing a pick up game, he wraps it and continues playing.

Len's ceiling is probably Robin Lopez. That's if everything goes perfectly right.

Right now, he's a below average backup C in the league. $15M isn't worth that, not even in the new salary cap.

 

[sunsfan88]

And this is where I disagree with you. If he plays exactly as he has played (at center) the past 2 seasons, he'll get 15 per somewhere IMO. If he plays well, he'll get the max or near it. And I don't mean superstar well, if he just does for us consistently what he's already done for us occasionally, he'll draw that kind of money.

He's a mobile big man that can defend bigs on the block and in space. He was abused by the more mobile power forwards last season and might be a liability defensively when we face teams that don't play a true big man but that's true of most centers these days.

If he plays exactly the way he has the last two seasons, why the heck would he get paid more than a guy like Festus Ezeli? And Ezeli is actually a very good comparison for Alex Len.

 

[Phrazbit]

He's never gonna become durable. I still remember when a jammed finger made him miss the entire summer league a few years ago. When my 9 year old nephew gets a jammed finger playing a pick up game, he wraps it and continues playing.

While I agree about not extending him, this quoted section is nonsense. The Summer League is exhibition trash, if a player is even remotely injured they shouldn't be put in those worthless games.

 

[FutureSuperstar]

I don't want to get into a Len debate on here - Like I have over the years, lol - But where does this myth that Len has "bad hands" come from? Like I get the criticism of him shooting terribly, and trying to do too much at times (Turnovers), but very rarely do I see Len fumble the basketball when passed too. Most of his turnovers come from bad passes where he tries to do too much, traveling, offensive fouls, or he over dribbles ... I would actually say Len has "Good hands" for a center - When he's passed too around the basket he seems to always catch it. Now finishing was a problem last year but catching wasn't.

I think this myth comes from the month last year he played w/ his broken hand/finger ... Well yeah obviously he had "bad hands" during that time period mid-season (literally) because they were injured, lol. But to start the season and to end the season when his hands were healthy, I don't see his "hands" as an issue AT ALL.

Also lol at calling Len a "below average backup center" right now. Like what - Where are these stud backup centers at? And actually since he's a below average one, I guess there's 15-25 backup centers better than him.

 

[Hoop Head]

I've been out of Arizona for the last month, stuck in rural Indiana, and haven't had much access to the internet and no access to any sort of local/Phoenix sports coverage and I'm curious if I've missed anything regarding Suns talk related to Len and Goodwin's future with the team. If there have been any formal discussions or rumors relating to extensions for Len and/or Goodwin from the local "insiders" like Paul Coro, Gambo, Bickley, etc. I'm trying to get caught up but there is about a month of shows and articles I missed and have been sifting through when the main thing I'm curious about is related to the Suns plans for those 2 moving forward. I've missed all of the articles and shows since mid-august up to what is now the end of September.

I doubt anything has been discussed regarding Goodwin but I thought I'd ask about him as well, it wouldn't surprise me if he's posturing for a trade before the season starts. This is the worst time of year to be an NBA fan because not much happens in August or September outside of extensions and possible camp invites with the occasional player or team option getting picked up or contract becoming guaranteed for end of the bench players. Training Camp is still a little ways off but some informal workouts happen amongst players. Years with the Olympics during the summer it seems free agency and player trades wrap up a little bit quicker than usual because all of the superstars and foreign players want to get it out of the way quick so they can focus on the Olympic games. Without the internet I haven't been able to keep up with anything NBA related, not that much is happening but the Suns get almost 0 national coverage because they don't have a true superstar and have been towards the bottom of the league in the standings for a little while now.

 

[Ronin]

He's talking right now on Suns.com Media Day. Says his body feels great.

 

[Ronin]

Suns General Manager Ryan McDonough said he has not begun extension talks with Len’s or Goodwin’s agents.

“We want to see how it goes in training camp and preseason and then we’ll revisit it as a staff probably the last week or last 10 days of October,” McDonough said.

http://www.azcentral.com/story/spor...s-alex-len-extension-not-sure-thing/91150828/

 

[Phrazbit]

http://www.azcentral.com/story/spor...s-alex-len-extension-not-sure-thing/91150828/

Good.

 

[AzStevenCal]

After 2 preseason games, I think I'm ready to do a 180 and give up on Len. I just see no reason for his frequent disappearing acts. I'd take the first offer that came our way for him rather than continuing to invest time and money on the guy.

I've been one of his biggest supporters (not his biggest obviously) but I just don't think he's ever going to come close to his potential. And he's such a tease, if we hang onto him I could see us getting excited by his occasional good games and doing something stupid money-wise. Better to move on now.