Ayton's shooting percentages

[cardsunsfan]

Sometimes I find Ayton's field goal percentages are staggering like this last laker game... If he can get in the 20's and shoot 72% that has to give you a huge chance of winning a basketball game.. It would be interesting to redistribute a 72% shooting percentage on other teams and see how it affects their win percentage.. I guess it has to do with difficulty of shots that you take over the easier ones for other teammates? With a lot of teams now shooting around 45% it's amazing how some of the "greats" shooting percentages stack up..often Kobe's shooting percentage would be below the best team's averages.. With Kobe's career average shooting percentage of 44.7% I would think the difference would be staggering... Yet he won a lot of championships..

Ironically looking at the best past centers some of them have close to their best years their first year (Tim Duncan for instance) when it comes to shooting percentages and points scored... many are in the mid 50%.. if Ayton could ever average 20 in the 60's shooting percentage with an average amount of free throws as a center at about 75%... I would think we would start winning a lot of games.. Lets hope he isn't close to his ceiling.. I know he has to get his points during the flow of the game.. but If I were the coach I would try to get him to throw up enough shots to hit 20+ points and see if his shooting percentage regresses..

 

[Hoop Head]

Sometimes I find Ayton's field goal percentages are staggering like this last laker game... If he can get in the 20's and shoot 72% that has to give you a huge chance of winning a basketball game.. It would be interesting to redistribute a 72% shooting percentage on other teams and see how it affects their win percentage.. I guess it has to do with difficulty of shots that you take over the easier ones for other teammates? With a lot of teams now shooting around 45% it's amazing how some of the "greats" shooting percentages stack up..often Kobe's shooting percentage would be below the best team's averages.. With Kobe's career average shooting percentage of 44.7% I would think the difference would be staggering... Yet he won a lot of championships..

Ironically looking at the best past centers some of them have close to their best years their first year (Tim Duncan for instance) when it comes to shooting percentages and points scored... many are in the mid 50%.. if Ayton could ever average 20 in the 60's shooting percentage with an average amount of free throws as a center at about 75%... I would think we would start winning a lot of games.. Lets hope he isn't close to his ceiling.. I know he has to get his points during the flow of the game.. but If I were the coach I would try to get him to throw up enough shots to hit 20+ points and see if his shooting percentage regresses..

I can see what you're saying and while I agree to a certain extent comparing the number of shots attempted by a Kobe Bryant type of guard and a big like Ayton it's all about where those shots are being attempted. Almost 50% of Ayton's attempts are coming from within 0-3 feet from the basket, with 21% coming from 3-10, and the final 30% of his shots from further than 10 feet out. When you're attempting shots like that then you should be shooting the ball quite well. There are some exceptions to that like Marquese Chriss who missed a ton of dunks while a Suns player, he only made around 60% of his dunk attempts here, so it's not that all big guys that shoot in close make a high percentage of their shots.

Ayton does have great touch around the rim which allows him to shoot such a good percentage. He's shooting 73% from 0-3 feet, which is excellent for someone his age. Just to compare Ayton to another big man though I pulled up DeAndre Jordan's stats, who is actually the all time leader in the NBA in FG%. Jordan makes only 72% from 0-3 feet compared to Ayton who is making 73%. DJ takes a lot more shots like that also, with him shooting around 83% of his attempts from that close in. Seeing Ayton actually surpass the all time in FG% in NBA history from that distance is a great sign. I know Ayton will shoot from a little further back quite often, which Jordan doesn't do, but that should only stretch the opposing teams defense with time and free up the paint for driving guards.

Ayton should be fed more since he shoots so well but he also needs to work on getting in close to get good shots as well. He's struggled with that some this year but as he gets more confident and stronger that should come. I highly doubt Ayton is a complete player right now. Very few big men are at his age. The only ones who seem to stay level from their rookie year on at 20 years old are busts and Ayton is not a bust. He does have some things to work on but he's a smart kid and seems anxious to learn, hopefully he works with some good people this summer to improve his game for next year.

Here's Ayton's shooting number if you want to take a look. It lists the percentage of his shots from various distance as well as tells you what his shooting percentage is from those distances. All that info is on Basketball Reference but it wasn't tracked until 2001, so comparing him to some All-Time greats can be difficult since a lot of the great bigs from the 90's were finishing their careers then. Here's a link to view them on that site also. Here's a link to DeAndre Jordan's if you want to see more complete numbers from him also, for comparison.

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Comparing him to Kobe though is a bit skewed because Kobe only attempted 20% of his shots from that close to the basket. He jacked up a lot of mid range jumpers and 3's, which Ayton does to a certain extent also but it's night and day. It's hard to try to determine team success by looking at the impact a Kobe has vs an Ayton. It's much better to compare him to fellow bigs, like Shaq or DJ like I pulled up. Here's a link to Kobe's shooting stats.

 

[cardsunsfan]

Thanks, good info to have... I guess I was looking at Duncan, Robinson etc since their stats seemed to not go up a huge amount in their earlier years but they were older... I guess I'm still trying to wrap my head around what makes the difference in wins and losses for a team? Maybe there is only so many inside shots to be had and you need an outside shooter who will inevitably have to take more difficult shots? Maybe it has to do with having one guy take the easier inside shots vs several players so the outside shooter with a lower shooting percentage can be even more valuable? It seems overall teams are going away from bigs so maybe the key to winning overall is outside shooting for the most part?

I haven't studied it to a huge extent... Jordan and Lebron are close to 50% with a lot of midrange shots so they seem to be the most valuable.. I never could completely understand why Kobe was as successful as he was... and of course defense can play a part..

Oddly enough a center I recall changing the game at times at the defense side was... Oliver Miller.. crazy I know but sometimes he made the offensive player look ridiculous with his long arms and the threat of him blocking shots.. it made players at times completely change their games.. I know many consider him as a failure as a player but it showed me how much a center could change an offensive teams strategy when a center was in the zone when it came to defense.. I don't see Ayton do that too much.

 

[Bufalay]

I was just looking at some rookie rankings in "advanced" stats. Ayton has the highest estimated wins added among rookies at 10. That's a strange number for a team with 17 wins, but he does compare very favorably to the rest of the rookie class.

http://insider.espn.com/nba/hollinger/statistics/_/position/rookies/sort/VORPe

 

[sunsfan88]

I can see what you're saying and while I agree to a certain extent comparing the number of shots attempted by a Kobe Bryant type of guard and a big like Ayton it's all about where those shots are being attempted. Almost 50% of Ayton's attempts are coming from within 0-3 feet from the basket, with 21% coming from 3-10, and the final 30% of his shots from further than 10 feet out. When you're attempting shots like that then you should be shooting the ball quite well. There are some exceptions to that like Marquese Chriss who missed a ton of dunks while a Suns player, he only made around 60% of his dunk attempts here, so it's not that all big guys that shoot in close make a high percentage of their shots.

Ayton does have great touch around the rim which allows him to shoot such a good percentage. He's shooting 73% from 0-3 feet, which is excellent for someone his age. Just to compare Ayton to another big man though I pulled up DeAndre Jordan's stats, who is actually the all time leader in the NBA in FG%. Jordan makes only 72% from 0-3 feet compared to Ayton who is making 73%. DJ takes a lot more shots like that also, with him shooting around 83% of his attempts from that close in. Seeing Ayton actually surpass the all time in FG% in NBA history from that distance is a great sign. I know Ayton will shoot from a little further back quite often, which Jordan doesn't do, but that should only stretch the opposing teams defense with time and free up the paint for driving guards.

Ayton should be fed more since he shoots so well but he also needs to work on getting in close to get good shots as well. He's struggled with that some this year but as he gets more confident and stronger that should come. I highly doubt Ayton is a complete player right now. Very few big men are at his age. The only ones who seem to stay level from their rookie year on at 20 years old are busts and Ayton is not a bust. He does have some things to work on but he's a smart kid and seems anxious to learn, hopefully he works with some good people this summer to improve his game for next year.

Here's Ayton's shooting number if you want to take a look. It lists the percentage of his shots from various distance as well as tells you what his shooting percentage is from those distances. All that info is on Basketball Reference but it wasn't tracked until 2001, so comparing him to some All-Time greats can be difficult since a lot of the great bigs from the 90's were finishing their careers then. Here's a link to view them on that site also. Here's a link to DeAndre Jordan's if you want to see more complete numbers from him also, for comparison.

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Comparing him to Kobe though is a bit skewed because Kobe only attempted 20% of his shots from that close to the basket. He jacked up a lot of mid range jumpers and 3's, which Ayton does to a certain extent also but it's night and day. It's hard to try to determine team success by looking at the impact a Kobe has vs an Ayton. It's much better to compare him to fellow bigs, like Shaq or DJ like I pulled up. Here's a link to Kobe's shooting stats.

Good point and just to add to this, assisted numbers matter too. I would say the discrepancy between the two in terms of assisted baskets and non assisted baskets is pretty huge.

 

[JCSunsfan]

I was just looking at some rookie rankings in "advanced" stats. Ayton has the highest estimated wins added among rookies at 10. That's a strange number for a team with 17 wins, but he does compare very favorably to the rest of the rookie class.

http://insider.espn.com/nba/hollinger/statistics/_/position/rookies/sort/VORPe

Interesting stats.

1. True shooting percentage: 3rd. Behind Robinson and Shamet with Doncic at #12 (I really liked Shamet coming into the draft. I would gone for him over Okobo).
2. Usage. 11th. How in the world is the #1 pick, 11th in usage among rookies?
3. Rebound rate. 1st.
4. PER. 2nd (Behind Mitchell Robinson and ahead of Doncic)
5. Value added. 1st.
6. Estimated wins added. 1st.

Just based upon these stats (which are a select group of stats of course) Ayton would be ROY.

 

[NashDishesDimes]

Ehh not trying to be negative here as I like Ayton a lot. But, most of his shots are dunks at the rim, put backs, etc. when he becomes more of a focal point of the offense as some of the names you had mentioned, and double teams come, his degree of difficulty and shooting percentages will fall.

At this point its sort of like deandre jordan who has always had incredible “FG %”

 

[AzStevenCal]

Ehh not trying to be negative here as I like Ayton a lot. But, most of his shots are dunks at the rim, put backs, etc. when he becomes more of a focal point of the offense as some of the names you had mentioned, and double teams come, his degree of difficulty and shooting percentages will fall.

At this point its sort of like deandre jordan who has always had incredible “FG %”

This is inaccurate and DeAndre Jordan is a horrible comparison. Ayton takes 47% of his shots inside 3 feet, Jordan has taken 83% of his shots there for his career. Huge difference. 22% of Ayton's shots come in the 3 to 10 foot range and over 30% of his shots come from beyond 10 feet.

 

[itlnsunsfan]

Ehh not trying to be negative here as I like Ayton a lot. But, most of his shots are dunks at the rim, put backs, etc. when he becomes more of a focal point of the offense as some of the names you had mentioned, and double teams come, his degree of difficulty and shooting percentages will fall.

At this point its sort of like deandre jordan who has always had incredible “FG %”

I'm not an Ayton homer, and have argued Doncic over him, but you can't compare Jordan and Ayton. Ayton has range out to 15 feet.

 

[JCSunsfan]

Ehh not trying to be negative here as I like Ayton a lot. But, most of his shots are dunks at the rim, put backs, etc. when he becomes more of a focal point of the offense as some of the names you had mentioned, and double teams come, his degree of difficulty and shooting percentages will fall.

At this point its sort of like deandre jordan who has always had incredible “FG %”

This is not true. Ayton take a lot of midrange shots. In fact, mid range shots are where it is most difficult to get a good efficiency rating. Players like Shamet can drop threes. Shooting 33% from 3 gets the same efficiency rating as shooting 50% from two. If Ayton can add three point shooting to his game and be above 35% or so on limited volume, he will up his efficiency.

 

[NashDishesDimes]

I'm not an Ayton homer, and have argued Doncic over him, but you can't compare Jordan and Ayton. Ayton has range out to 15 feet.

Just look at Aytons shooting percentage since october, its fallen every month from 62% down to 56% now. Look at split stats on yahoo. Thats because yes, he has been taking more jumpers and more tough shots. Again, not knocking him, this is to be expected and normal. But toward the beginning of the season he was almost purely alley-oop dunks and finding him at the rim open for dunks.