...and with the third pick in the 2026 NFL Draft..

oaken1

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life hit me from some odd angles the past few months so I havent spent much time watching college ball this winter.
But I got curious when I seen Chopper pumping up a RB...we have had debates before on "Positional Value"...and RB just aint usually a great call in the top five from some peoples perspective...but not usually mine. But anyway, it motivated me to go find the combine interview from Jerimyah Love...

yeah...wait a minute.
This aint like a college kid interview. The maturity is off the charts...lots of humility and gratitude for his current situation...seems a very earnest young man.
I really liked that various reporters were asking him about which teams he had sat with so far and how he would feel about them drafting him. he seemed to legitimately just be grateful for the opportunity to play in the NFL...for any team.
except when they asked him about the dallas cowboys...LOL,...he disguised it by saying his dad is a steelers fan and doesnt really like the cowboys...but it was pretty obvious he aint a fan...was also obvious he isnt just all about the money...he seemed more excited for the prospect of playing for a couple teams that pick in the twenties over some teams with top ten picks.
so yeah...underwear olympics and softball interviews...I decided to go look at some tape.

as I watched I kept getting the feeling I had seen this kid play before... the stride, the vision, instincts...ability to go over the top....the devastating BLOCKING!!

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its not often they include blocking in a RB highlight reel..but this kid is good.
It finally hit me where I had seen this all before...the uniforms were different... but in play style Love reminds me of Marcus Allen...this is like blasphemy for me...Marcus is my all time favorite player...hell I nearly named my oldest son after him.... but its all there..
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with this kids joy in hurdling over defenders,...it would be a treat to see him play with Trey McBride every week..like a matching set.
Love is a bit thicker than Allen, and a bit quicker.. but the instincts and play style are dead on...

what I see here is.... Adrian Peterson/Levi Brown...all over again...no clear top talent at OT... but an obviously superior Runningback on the board

Back then, I was all for getting line help at the expense of runningback... but we can get a starting level RT at 34...

give me some Love at pick #3
 
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oaken1

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ROUND 2!!

Max Ihaenifor(sp?)
OT ASU...

6'5 325 pounds... runs an official 4.91

this dude has the best hips and feet of any o lineman in this draft and he never played football until he went to JUCO.


can see him smoke the 40 at that link.. this kid is already really good and has way more room ro improve... no sacks allowed last year
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oh yeah...David Bailey?? That edge rusher I like at 3?? Max DOMINATED him at the senior bowl...pitched a shutout.
what more do you have to see than a kid besting the best his peers have to offer?
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Fully agree. Everything about him says superstar.

People keep talking about positional value. Kenneth Walker just ran the Seahawks to the Superbowl and won MVP.

It's true to say that RB talent around the league is generally deep, that is, that you can find someone to play RB that is above average quite easily. But that doesn't devalue elite RB talent.

Kenneth Walkers, CMCs, Jahmyr Gibbs etc are rare beasts and I think Love could be right up there with the best of them.
 

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I'd be fine with Love, but we must fix the OL to get the return out of that high a pick. I think Love is less of a sure thing than Jeanty was last year, and we see how that worked out behind the Raiders OL last year.
Dysfunctional organizations take running backs in the top 10….give me Francis mag or fano and let’s bust somebody in the mouth for once….
 

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Fully agree. Everything about him says superstar.

People keep talking about positional value. Kenneth Walker just ran the Seahawks to the Superbowl and won MVP.

It's true to say that RB talent around the league is generally deep, that is, that you can find someone to play RB that is above average quite easily. But that doesn't devalue elite RB talent.

Kenneth Walkers, CMCs, Jahmyr Gibbs etc are rare beasts and I think Love could be right up there with the best of them.
Same. I'm sitting here worried we're going to pass up a superstar offensive piece to essentially reach for a guard/RT that would go more in the late top-10-15.

No one seems to be sitting around saying Mauigoa or Fano are surefire elite players. It doesn't seem like people are saying "run to the podium," just "well I guess we have a need there, so let's take one and hope they pan out to be pretty good."
 

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the argument for Love is:

guys rated like this have a pretty good hit factor: from memory is Zeke Elliot, Leonard Fournette, Christian McCaffery, Saquan Barkley, Jamyr Gibbs, Ashton Jeanty,

Zeke was really, really good but short-lived, Fournette was.... good, Jeanty a ? -- but the other guys are really, really good.


the argument against: only Gibbs has materially contributed in the playoffs for the team that drafted him. And that was for a team that already was set at QB, WR and OL.
 

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the argument for Love is:

guys rated like this have a pretty good hit factor: from memory is Zeke Elliot, Leonard Fournette, Christian McCaffery, Saquan Barkley, Jamyr Gibbs, Ashton Jeanty,

Zeke was really, really good but short-lived, Fournette was.... good, Jeanty a ? -- but the other guys are really, really good.


the argument against: only Gibbs has materially contributed in the playoffs for the team that drafted him. And that was for a team that already was set at QB, WR and OL.
.
Other than Fournette I don’t think any of those teams regret it despite not living up to their second contracts (Elliott). The Cards can clear so much cap space that they can moderately upgrade the OL so it’s not a Jeanty situation. It’s not like our OL was special two years ago when we averaged 5.3 YPA for the season.
 

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Same. I'm sitting here worried we're going to pass up a superstar offensive piece to essentially reach for a guard/RT that would go more in the late top-10-15.

No one seems to be sitting around saying Mauigoa or Fano are surefire elite players. It doesn't seem like people are saying "run to the podium," just "well I guess we have a need there, so let's take one and hope they pan out to be pretty good."

Exactly. Absolutely nobody think either tackles are stars.

Love is a stud.

Who here is going to look back in 3 years and think "Well yeah, Love might have 1800 scrimmage yards, two All Pros and two pro bowls but Mauigoa is the 18th best right tackle and only gave up 4 sacks. So who really won?"

Nobody.
 

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The problems with taking a RB that high are numerous, although I'm not completely against it.

1. Contract: A RB at #3 overall gets paid over $12 million a year, that is top 5 RB money right now. There are no cap savings from the rookie contract when you take a running back high.
2. Longevity: runningbacks used as true 3 down backs often don't have long careers. If you give a guy 350 touches a year he's gonna get hurt. Quite often these guys arent the same players by the time they reach their second contract.
3. Scarcity: Top tier runningbacks hit free agency every year. Last year you could have gotten Breece Hall, a top 5 RB talent, for a 3rd round pick at the trade deadline. Top guys hitting free agency never happens with wide receivers, pass rushers, or tackles. If you want good OT's, WRs, or pass rushers, you generally have to draft them. Every year terrible OTs get big money because they're the only guys available.

Now on the flip side. A prospect like Love isn't going to bust, and there are doubts about the OTs and pass rushers at the top of this draft. Drafting a superstar, even at the last valuable position, IS better than drafting a bust.
 
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oaken1

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The problems with taking a RB that high are numerous, although I'm not completely against it.

1. Contract: A RB at #3 overall gets paid over $12 million a year, that is top 5 RB money right now. There are no cap savings from the rookie contract when you take a running back high.
2. Longevity: runningbacks used as true 3 down backs often don't have long careers. If you give a guy 350 touches a year he's gonna get hurt. Quite often these guys arent the same players by the time they reach their second contract.
3. Scarcity: Top tier runningbacks hit free agency every year. Last year you could have gotten Breece Hall, a top 5 RB talent, for a 3rd round pick at the trade deadline. Top guys hitting free agency never happens with wide receivers, pass rushers, or tackles. If you want good OT's, WRs, or pass rushers, you generally have to draft them. Every year terrible OTs get big money because they're the only guys available.

Now on the flip side. A prospect like Love isn't going to bust, and there are doubts about the OTs and pass rushers at the top of this draft. Drafting a superstar, even at the last valuable position, IS better than drafting a bust.
Agree.
However....
History has shown that Running Backs that are special usually have longer careers, fewer injuries, and better recovery from injuries the get.
Lack of injuries could certainly be the reason for the longevity. But I posit, some guys just have a different physical makeup that allows them to perform through the abuse.
Take Adrian Peterson...we all knew he was clearly special before the knee...but then dude healed fast and came back as good as ever even being an older back.
Some guys just ain't made like the rest.
Love might be our shot at a 20,000 yard back.
 

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Agree.
However....
History has shown that Running Backs that are special usually have longer careers, fewer injuries, and better recovery from injuries the get.
Lack of injuries could certainly be the reason for the longevity. But I posit, some guys just have a different physical makeup that allows them to perform through the abuse.
Take Adrian Peterson...we all knew he was clearly special before the knee...but then dude healed fast and came back as good as ever even being an older back.
Some guys just ain't made like the rest.
Love might be our shot at a 20,000 yard back.


I'm not as concerned about the longevity bullet point, I'm interested in the opportunity cost. If we offered Kenneth Walker 13 million a year I am sure we would get him, that's just one million more/year than Love would be paid on his rookie contract.

We could have Walker at 13 million, and get one of Mauigoa/Fano/Bain/Reese at 12 million a year. OR, we could get Love at 12 million and pay 31 year old Trey Hendrickson $30 million a year? Maybe Odafe Oweh 22 million a year? The RTs projected to be available in free agency aren't upgrades from Jonah Williams, so we would have to hit on one in the later rounds.

Maybe that could be the correct move. It's certainly a tough decision. If Reese or Bain hits, the actual value of their contracts could be insanely more than 12 million a year. A good RT gets paid 20+ million a year.

As for longetivity, plenty of special guys taken at the top of the first had their careers cut short. Peterson and Henry/Gore are anomalies. But the rise of the committee approach is certainly helping RBs have longer careers. I'm sure Benson/someone would spell Love for 30% of the snaps.
 
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I'm all about positional value, which is also why I don't want a RT at 3. There's obviously no QB at 3 worth taking when Mendoza is gone. The D players at that value are meh to me. And I'm not taking a safety at 3.

So enter Love. This is a high-floor, superstar-ceiling kid. Huge motor, great speed, shifty, tough, can block, can catch. Legit 3 down back and a great vision runner. But his maturity is off the charts. The only way we can trade down is if people trade up to get him (enter AP/Levi all over again). I have done a ton of PFF mocks, he never gets past tennesse at 4 if we trade back. He's going top 4 regardless. Why not top 3? Legit star, will make games fun even if we lose. MLF will absolutely get him all kinds of looks in the offense, and he takes eyes from the defense freeing the WRs and Trey even more.

I'd love a RT in the 2nd, like the Clemson kid but there are quality ones to be had. But we can get guards and OL help in FA as well.

I'm kind of all in on Love.
 

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I'm all about positional value, which is also why I don't want a RT at 3. There's obviously no QB at 3 worth taking when Mendoza is gone. The D players at that value are meh to me. And I'm not taking a safety at 3.

So enter Love. This is a high-floor, superstar-ceiling kid. Huge motor, great speed, shifty, tough, can block, can catch. Legit 3 down back and a great vision runner. But his maturity is off the charts. The only way we can trade down is if people trade up to get him (enter AP/Levi all over again). I have done a ton of PFF mocks, he never gets past tennesse at 4 if we trade back. He's going top 4 regardless. Why not top 3? Legit star, will make games fun even if we lose. MLF will absolutely get him all kinds of looks in the offense, and he takes eyes from the defense freeing the WRs and Trey even more.

I'd love a RT in the 2nd, like the Clemson kid but there are quality ones to be had. But we can get guards and OL help in FA as well.

I'm kind of all in on Love.
Running back is certainly more valuable now than in the 2010s. The big trend is defenses focusing so much on pass defense that they refuse to ever truly stack the box. An elite home runner hitting RB is certainly a way to punish that approach.

That said, safeties are paid more than runningbacks, and positionally are more valuable than running backs. Despite the increased emphasis on the run game, passing plays are still more efficient than running plays. Nothing is more important than shutting down explosive pass plays

If you're considering Love at 3, I'm going to argue that Downs is just as valid a pick. It would never happen, just a hypothetical for arguments sake.
 

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Running back is certainly more valuable now than in the 2010s. The big trend is defenses focusing so much on pass defense that they refuse to ever truly stack the box. An elite home runner hitting RB is certainly a way to punish that approach.

That said, safeties are paid more than runningbacks, and positionally are more valuable than running backs. Despite the increased emphasis on the run game, passing plays are still more efficient than running plays. Nothing is more important than shutting down explosive pass plays

If you're considering Love at 3, I'm going to argue that Downs is just as valid a pick. It would never happen, just a hypothetical for arguments sake.
Not a bad position, and Downs is a strong pick. And while we have young players there, and an aging Budda, it would be a not TERRIBLE decision. But Love jerseys will fly off the shelf, Downs jerseys won't. Love will get airtime on talk radio/tv, Downs wont. Love will get fantasy chatter and excitement, Downs won't. Do those things matter? Not really on field, but definitely in visibility for the franchise which does matter. They need to stop the bleeding and put butts back in the seats.

I'm a defensive guy, and I'm a little shocked at myself that I'm bought all the way in on Love.
 
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oaken1

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Running back is certainly more valuable now than in the 2010s. The big trend is defenses focusing so much on pass defense that they refuse to ever truly stack the box. An elite home runner hitting RB is certainly a way to punish that approach.

That said, safeties are paid more than runningbacks, and positionally are more valuable than running backs. Despite the increased emphasis on the run game, passing plays are still more efficient than running plays. Nothing is more important than shutting down explosive pass plays

If you're considering Love at 3, I'm going to argue that Downs is just as valid a pick. It would never happen, just a hypothetical for arguments sake.
3 things can happen when you pass the ball.
2 of those things are bad.


And if we get a true elite back...it ain't just about the rushing attack. Because dude will also give you 4-500 yards receiving...
Oh, and the big one...Block.
We haven't had a RB truly effective at picking up a blitz since Edge... but Love is an outstanding blocker...which buys the QB an extra second to find a guy more than 10 yards downfield
 

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in a normal draft, Love probably goes somewhere in the top 10 but not top 5

that said, drafting Love feels like buying a convertible while you know you need a new roof on the house
 

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Apparently theres some buzz the UGA OT Monroe Freeling will be a top 10 pick, taken before Fano.
 

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