Which signal-caller will have the biggest impact for his team?

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By Pat Kirwan
NFL.com Senior Analyst


(Sept. 8, 2005) -- Who says NFL teams don't trade players? In the past two years, there has been a significant rise in the number of trades witnessed during the draft process, and now there seems to be a rise in trades at the last cutdown day.


Five teams traded players just before the last roster cuts to get teams down to the 53-player maximum. More teams have managed their salary cap better than in years gone by, so they have the cap space to take on player contracts to help their team. Minnesota swapped offensive tackle Nat Dorsey to Cleveland for center Melvin Fowler. With Matt Birk out with an injury, Fowler provides depth and competition at the center position while Dorsey helps the Browns, who never really replaced Ross Verba when they cut him loose.

All spring we talked about what a poor year it was in the draft for linebackers. Teams did what they could in April, but at least three teams decided the experiment with young, inexperienced players all summer just wasn't going to cut it. Dallas is switching to a 3-4 defense and acquired Chiefs linebacker Scott Fujita. The Cowboys need bigger players for their new defense and the 6-foot-5, 250-pound linebacker will be able to do some of the things Ted Johnson did in Belichick's 3-4 defense up in New England.


Because of Peerless Price, Quincy Morgan takes his four years of experience to Pittsburgh.
Green Bay came across a decent linebacker from St. Louis when the team got Robert Thomas. In three seasons, Thomas has 31 starts and has been in on 163 tackles. The Indianapolis Colts plugged in another player when they acquired linebacker Rocky Calmus from the Titans. Somewhat unusual to trade in your own division, but it is still another sign that trading is on the upswing. The Colts are doing everything they possibly can to shore up a defense that doesn't have to be dominating but must be sound. Calmus only played in four games last season, but he finished up strong with three starts and 10 tackles.

There is a ripple effect to every player who leaves a club via termination or trade. As I finish up this article, 25 players were traded for, claimed on waivers or signed when they were terminated. That means 25 players who thought they were going to make a team got cut. Peerless Price gets cut by the Falcons then signed with the Cowboys, who then released Quincy Morgan, who in turn gets signed by the Steelers, who then release Lee Mays. Mays will get signed by some team and another man will lose his job. Little did Mays realize that the drafting of receiver Roddy White by Atlanta last April would directly effect him and his job security, but it did!

Which signal-caller will have the biggest impact for his team?
Well, the NFL season is upon us and six teams get ready to kick off the 2005 campaign with a new quarterback under center -- J.P. Losman (Buffalo), Kurt Warner (Arizona), Gus Frerotte (Miami), Trent Dilfer (Cleveland), Drew Bledsoe (Dallas) and Kyle Orton (Chicago). Which one of these players will have the biggest impact on their respective team's success this season? Which one has the most probable chance of being buried by the circumstances around him?

The most important position on the football field is quarterback and the fickle fate of most signal-callers has more to do with the surrounding circumstances than the talent he possesses. Warner and Dilfer already own Super Bowl rings from another place and time. Bledsoe brought one of his former teams to the big game, yet failed to grab the ring. Frerotte has flashed brilliance as a Redskin and a Viking, and could reinvent his career in Miami. Losman and Orton have five NFL passes between them, and still the fans and media will expect them to play well enough for at least a winning record. History says the young quarterbacks thrust into starting roles will struggle. For every Ben Roethlisberger who comes along there are many more Cade McNown, Akili Smith, Ryan Leaf and Heath Shuler stories. Both Orton and Losman have excellent defenses and good running backs supporting their efforts, but neither has a go-to tight end to keep them out of trouble.

Of the four veteran quarterbacks starting for new teams, Warner has the best set of receivers, yet Bledsoe may play in a system that protects him better. Dilfer and Frerotte have to be viewed as "hold down the fort" quarterbacks, but both have the football intelligence to make plays and win games. All of these quarterbacks need a solid running back behind them to get the opposition to drop a safety down into the box and hopefully open up the passing lanes. Here's a comparison of the runners and tight ends each of the new starters around the league have to support their starting role.

Team Quarterback Running Back 2004 Rushing Yards 2004 Receptions 2004 TE Production
Arizona Kurt Warner J.J. Arrington 0 yards 0 rec. 53 rec.
Buffalo J.P. Losman Willis McGahee 1,128 yards 22 rec. 34 rec.
Chicago Kyle Orton Thomas Jones 948 yards 56 rec. 25 rec.
Cleveland Trent Dilfer Reuben Droughns 1,240 yards 32 rec. 61 rec.
Dallas Drew Bledsoe Julius Jones 819 yards 17 rec. 91 rec.
Miami Gus Frerotte Ronnie Brown 0 yards 0 rec. 86 rec.



A guy like Bledsoe will up the production of the tight-end position and he will put Julius Jones in the best running situations. If Ronnie Brown can run the ball at close to 100 yards a game for Miami, then the 86 tight end receptions from 2004 will come in handy to keep defenders at bay. Losman and Orton have good running games, but neither young man has a productive tight end, which will hurt them in the long run.

At this point, it seems clear to me that Bledsoe has the most complete group of weapons to succeed in 2005 from the list of six new starters.

How many ways can a team play Randy Moss?
I watched a lot of Minnesota Vikings game tapes from the last two seasons and there are different ways to play Randy Moss. I'm sure after speaking with Raiders head coach Norv Turner, Oakland will be ready for whatever scheme the Pats throw at them while covering Moss. Here are the four most-prevalent ways teams like New England will defend Moss.

1. Roll the secondary coverage his way.

Many teams believe they can put two defensive backs on Moss by rolling the corner up in his face and having the safety play over the top when he goes deep. If quarterback Kerry Collins can read this coverage, it is time to go to Jerry Porter on the other side. Remember how many balls Cris Carter got when Moss was covered?

2. Walk a linebacker out to Moss to loosen up the corner.

There will be times when the outside linebacker will slide out to take away the slant route and other short routes to Moss while the corner sits off and plays the deep ball if Moss decides to convert the short route to a "go" or flag route. If Collins sees this coverage, it may be a good time to run the ball off-tackle to Moss' side. Remember, Vikings running backs over the past three years have averaged 4.9 yards a carry with Moss on the field.

3. Play a soft Cover 2 and jump short routes.

The Patriots corners could play a soft look and get Moss to convert his deeper routes to stop or curl routes. When a receiver like Moss breaks off his route, the corner can be aggressive and try for the interception. The Patriots played a lot of this look against Marvin Harrison in the AFC Championship Game two years ago, and Ty Law had three picks.

4. Play him straight man to man.

Darrell Green, the former great Redskins corner, told me in the old days he would simply line up on a guy like Moss and cover him. Green knows the game has changed and the chance to be physical on a Randy Moss has changed. At this point, I wouldn't recommend this approach to covering Moss.

Finally, Moss will catch his share of balls, but if coverage reads tell Collins to go elsewhere with the ball, then how long will Moss last as a decoy on national TV against the world champions? There may come a time when Collins sees the double coverage and still throws the ball to him. Moss always thinks he'll win the rebound contest even if it's against two players.
 

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