http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/news?slug=weekprimeritstimeforther&prov=tsn&type=lgns
A quarter of the season is behind us. That means we're starting to get a better feel for which teams are for real and which teams stink -- we think.
The Titans and Steelers both started 1-3 last season and made the playoffs. The Dolphins and Broncos both stormed out at 3-1 and missed the dance. The then-4-0 Chargers are the saddest story -- they finished 2002 8-8 after a season-ending four-game losing streak, which has spilled into a season-opening four-game losing streak.
The point is, don't get too up or too down. Sixteen games don't seem like much, but the cliche of "it's a long season" applies here. Championships aren't won in October -- unless, of course, you're taking about baseball. Moving on. ...
NFC GAME OF THE WEEK
Washington at Philadelphia. The Eagles came out with a brilliant run-heavy game plan last week to win at Buffalo and avoided starting 0-3. That philosophy also helped get Donovan McNabb out of his slump, as he just went with the flow of his passing and running skills.
The great play of Philadelphia's young secondary, which had to fill the big shoes of Brian Dawkins and Bobby Taylor, also was a nice development. It can't let up this week, because Troy Vincent joins Dawkins and Taylor on the shelf.
Steve Spurrier's passing game has succeeded because of his dedication to the running game, but although the Eagles have struggled to start healthy corners and safeties, their run defense has remained stingy. That should keep Trung Canidate and Ladell Betts from providing balance, allowing the Eagles to blitz Patrick Ramsey often.
Laveranues Coles and Rod Gardner will get good yards against the resulting single coverage, but the Eagles will find enough punch with McNabb's playmaking and continued solid running vs. the Redskins' front four to get their first win at Lincoln Financial Field. Eagles 20, Redskins 16.
AFC GAME OF THE WEEK
Denver at Kansas City. Congratulations to the Broncos' Mike Shanahan and the Chiefs' Dick Vermeil, who both hit 100 career victories last week. There's no time to celebrate, however, as the coaches' respective 4-0 teams get to play each other this week.
It's appropriate that one of them will hit 101 after this game, because both Super Bowl-winning coaches have schooled their teams well in the basics of winning, which includes a run-first offense, an aggressive defense and sound special teams.
This big game should be well played, so the difference will be which team produces more big plays. That's where Arrowhead Stadium comes in -- the important 12th man. The Chiefs will ride the energy of their loud home crowd to thrive in all three phases early in the game. A heavy dose of Priest Holmes late in the game will then limit the comeback chances for Jake Plummer and the Broncos' offense. Chiefs 31, Broncos 21.
EMMITT OF THE WEEK
Arizona at Dallas. It will be strange seeing No. 22 wearing Cardinals red at Texas Stadium, playing for a team he used to burn for big games in old NFC East play. It's the modern-day equivalent of seeing Johnny U. in powder blue.
But the Emmitt Era is behind the Cowboys, and now they are tuned into Tuna Time. It didn't take long for Bill Parcells to make his presence felt, and they will continue to shock everybody by reaching 3-1 this week.
For the Cowboys to keep up their surprising success, they need Emmitt's replacement, Troy Hambrick, to keep evolving as their featured back. Hambrick broke out for 127 yards against the Jets last week and should follow it up with another big game vs. the Cards' front seven. Emmitt will show a little of his old juice on Sunday, but it won't be enough. Cowboys 21, Cardinals 10.
DUNGY OF THE WEEK
Indianapolis at Tampa Bay. Tony Dungy played a big part in making the Bucs' cover 2 championship-caliber, and now he has the Colts' similar defense on the right track. His knowledge of what Tampa likes to do will help Indianapolis have a fighting shot at this game.
This matchup pits Peyton Manning, the league's smartest and hottest quarterback, against the league's most challenging scheme. Manning will get some good advice from Dungy. He will get good protection from left tackle Tarik Glenn on Simeon Rice. He will again benefit from two-tight end sets. If Edgerrin James is healthy, Manning should get good support from the power running game to set up play-action.
That means the Colts will be able to move the ball with some effectiveness, so the Bucs will need to win this game with a little offense of their own. Brad Johnson also is playing smart, and Keyshawn Johnson will find some room over the middle against the Colts' cornerbacks. In the second half, good running from Michael Pittman and Mike Alstott will help the hosts eke out a tough one. Buccaneers 16, Colts 13.
PACK OF THE WEEK
Seattle at Green Bay. Seahawks coach Mike Holmgren and defensive coordinator Ray Rhodes both used to be leaders of the Pack, and quarterback Matt Hasselbeck once held the league's easiest job -- backup to Brett Favre. All three men should be pumped up for a return to Lambeau, but the Packers also have the ex-team X-factor working for them.
The best Packer this season hasn't been Favre -- it's former Seahawk Ahman Green, who might be the league's fastest running back. He is completely healthy and is coming off his best career game, and he'll keep the momentum going against the team that traded him in 2000 for immortals Fred Vinson and Tim Watson. Packers 23, Seahawks 21.
SHOOTOUT OF THE WEEK
Cleveland at Pittsburgh. The Browns' offensive strength is four good receivers with which they can spread the field. The Steelers' defensive weakness is their secondary, where both of their top corners can be beaten. Regardless of who's at quarterback, Tim Couch or Kelly Holcomb, Cleveland can move the ball in the air with Kevin Johnson, Quincy Morgan, Dennis Northcutt and Andre' Davis.
Pittsburgh has a pretty nice passing game of its own, and what will cost the Browns is their own defensive weakness -- a front seven that can get run right over. That's bad news against a team that features both Amos Zereoue and Jerome Bettis. The Steelers will control the ball and the clock enough late in the game to sneak away with a wild one at home. Steelers 30, Browns 27.
UPSET OF THE WEEK
Detroit over San Francisco. OK, fine, Terrell Owens wants the ball, so give it to him more. But unless T.O. can play cornerback, he won't solve the Niners' biggest problem. Giving up 35 points had something do with them being able to score only 7 last week. Their secondary is so bad, it should be called a tertiary. Thank you, I'll be giving vocabulary lessons all season.
You have perfect timing, T.O. -- is there anything more fitting for Steve Mariucci's return to San Francisco? His team has its share of secondary problems, but in an era when great coaching is an invaluable commodity, Mariucci will get everything he can out of his new team this week and make his old team rue that it fired him. Lions 23, 49ers 19.
LOCK OF THE WEEK
Oakland over Chicago. With my penchant for jinxing the favorite in this section, this might be the only chance for the Bears to awaken from fall hibernation. To borrow loosely from high philosopher Crash Davis, they have a billion-dollar stadium and a five-cent offense.
The price of admission on the A-Train went up to a quarter as he flashed some of his rookie form last week. Although he will have some success chugging through the Raiders' front seven, he won't run as smoothly as the Purple Line's Evanston Express. (I still thank him for the fumble against Northwestern in 2000).
Back to the Silver and Black. The comeback against the Chargers put a much-needed charge into the Raiders' offense, and look for Rich Gannon and Charlie Garner to both have big games this week. If you're a Bears fan, go enjoy the fact that, somehow, it's still Cubs season. Raiders 27, Bears 17.
REST OF THE WEEK
Tennessee at New England. Everything is coming together for the Titans, as Steve McNair keeps rolling and their tough "46" defense has returned to deep-sixing opponents. They again have battled through a heap of injuries, but the Pats are even more undermanned. Without a running game, Tom Brady will feel the heat all afternoon. Titans 20, Patriots 17.
Minnesota at Atlanta. The Vikings will be another team that benefits from the absence of Michael Vick -- remember that mad overtime touchdown dash that beat them in the Metrodome last season? Minnesota might be without its own explosive playmaking quarterback again this week, but it will be just fine at 5-0 if backup Gus Frerotte keeps heaving it up for Randy Moss against Atlanta's suspect cornerbacks. Vikings 31, Falcons 16.
Cincinnati at Buffalo. Former Bengals coach Dick LeBeau will be an interested party as a Bills assistant, and one of his best former Bengals, Takeo Spikes, will be key in getting Buffalo's defense back on track. Spikes and fellow outside linebacker Jeff Posey will be aggressive in going after Jon Kitna with Corey Dillon absent from Cincy's backfield. Bills 24, Bengals 13.
Miami at New York Giants. The Dolphins have the more powerful running game with a rested Ricky Williams, but the Giants have had equal time off and feature a much more balanced offense. Once they focus on taking away Williams, the Dolphins' passing game won't be able to keep up with what Kerry Collins helps the Giants do on the scoreboard. Giants 27, Dolphins 19.
New Orleans at Carolina. The Panthers' front four will continue the struggles for Aaron Brooks and contain Deuce McAllister, and the Saints' depleted defense will wear down easily against Stephen Davis' power running. Carolina dreamin'? Not quite. The Panthers are for real, and this win officially will make them a playoff contender. Panthers 24, Saints 16.
San Diego at Jacksonville. It's fall, it's getting cold, and both cities sound like great mini-vacations, but I'm sort of tied up through the Super Bowl. This is like the Super Bowl for both teams, because one of them should get its first win -- I think. In games like these, I go with which team has the most talented player, and that's the side of LaDainian Tomlinson. Chargers 26, Jaguars 20.
WEEK OF THE REST
The Rams have settled in with "backups" Marc Bulger and Lamar Gordon as their offensive principals, and as a result, have turned to a more well-rounded game plan. Next up is a Monday night home game in which their defense will catch a break vs. the probably still Vick-less Falcons. ...
The Jets haven't figured out anything on offense, as Paul Hackett calls for plenty of bore and very little score. Curtis Martin and Vinny Testaverde don't deserve the brunt of the blame -- a lackluster line, stodgy playbook and pass-dropping receivers all have been much more lame. ...
The Ravens get a nice little break before their trip to blistering Tempe, and that means no defense needs to worry about being run over by the Hummer that is Jamal Lewis this week. ...
The Texans have played with energy and moxie, and coach Dom Capers is pushing all the right buttons to fire up his young team. Expect them to show fight all season, continuing with a tussle at Tennessee next week.
STATS OF THE WEEK
Week 4 record straight up: 12-2 (So I've got that going for me)
Week 4 record vs. the spread: 9-5 (It's a way to make a living?)
Season record straight up: 40-20 (The dreaded .666 winning clip)
Season record vs. the spread: 29-31 (Not quite Nutella)
A quarter of the season is behind us. That means we're starting to get a better feel for which teams are for real and which teams stink -- we think.
The Titans and Steelers both started 1-3 last season and made the playoffs. The Dolphins and Broncos both stormed out at 3-1 and missed the dance. The then-4-0 Chargers are the saddest story -- they finished 2002 8-8 after a season-ending four-game losing streak, which has spilled into a season-opening four-game losing streak.
The point is, don't get too up or too down. Sixteen games don't seem like much, but the cliche of "it's a long season" applies here. Championships aren't won in October -- unless, of course, you're taking about baseball. Moving on. ...
NFC GAME OF THE WEEK
Washington at Philadelphia. The Eagles came out with a brilliant run-heavy game plan last week to win at Buffalo and avoided starting 0-3. That philosophy also helped get Donovan McNabb out of his slump, as he just went with the flow of his passing and running skills.
The great play of Philadelphia's young secondary, which had to fill the big shoes of Brian Dawkins and Bobby Taylor, also was a nice development. It can't let up this week, because Troy Vincent joins Dawkins and Taylor on the shelf.
Steve Spurrier's passing game has succeeded because of his dedication to the running game, but although the Eagles have struggled to start healthy corners and safeties, their run defense has remained stingy. That should keep Trung Canidate and Ladell Betts from providing balance, allowing the Eagles to blitz Patrick Ramsey often.
Laveranues Coles and Rod Gardner will get good yards against the resulting single coverage, but the Eagles will find enough punch with McNabb's playmaking and continued solid running vs. the Redskins' front four to get their first win at Lincoln Financial Field. Eagles 20, Redskins 16.
AFC GAME OF THE WEEK
Denver at Kansas City. Congratulations to the Broncos' Mike Shanahan and the Chiefs' Dick Vermeil, who both hit 100 career victories last week. There's no time to celebrate, however, as the coaches' respective 4-0 teams get to play each other this week.
It's appropriate that one of them will hit 101 after this game, because both Super Bowl-winning coaches have schooled their teams well in the basics of winning, which includes a run-first offense, an aggressive defense and sound special teams.
This big game should be well played, so the difference will be which team produces more big plays. That's where Arrowhead Stadium comes in -- the important 12th man. The Chiefs will ride the energy of their loud home crowd to thrive in all three phases early in the game. A heavy dose of Priest Holmes late in the game will then limit the comeback chances for Jake Plummer and the Broncos' offense. Chiefs 31, Broncos 21.
EMMITT OF THE WEEK
Arizona at Dallas. It will be strange seeing No. 22 wearing Cardinals red at Texas Stadium, playing for a team he used to burn for big games in old NFC East play. It's the modern-day equivalent of seeing Johnny U. in powder blue.
But the Emmitt Era is behind the Cowboys, and now they are tuned into Tuna Time. It didn't take long for Bill Parcells to make his presence felt, and they will continue to shock everybody by reaching 3-1 this week.
For the Cowboys to keep up their surprising success, they need Emmitt's replacement, Troy Hambrick, to keep evolving as their featured back. Hambrick broke out for 127 yards against the Jets last week and should follow it up with another big game vs. the Cards' front seven. Emmitt will show a little of his old juice on Sunday, but it won't be enough. Cowboys 21, Cardinals 10.
DUNGY OF THE WEEK
Indianapolis at Tampa Bay. Tony Dungy played a big part in making the Bucs' cover 2 championship-caliber, and now he has the Colts' similar defense on the right track. His knowledge of what Tampa likes to do will help Indianapolis have a fighting shot at this game.
This matchup pits Peyton Manning, the league's smartest and hottest quarterback, against the league's most challenging scheme. Manning will get some good advice from Dungy. He will get good protection from left tackle Tarik Glenn on Simeon Rice. He will again benefit from two-tight end sets. If Edgerrin James is healthy, Manning should get good support from the power running game to set up play-action.
That means the Colts will be able to move the ball with some effectiveness, so the Bucs will need to win this game with a little offense of their own. Brad Johnson also is playing smart, and Keyshawn Johnson will find some room over the middle against the Colts' cornerbacks. In the second half, good running from Michael Pittman and Mike Alstott will help the hosts eke out a tough one. Buccaneers 16, Colts 13.
PACK OF THE WEEK
Seattle at Green Bay. Seahawks coach Mike Holmgren and defensive coordinator Ray Rhodes both used to be leaders of the Pack, and quarterback Matt Hasselbeck once held the league's easiest job -- backup to Brett Favre. All three men should be pumped up for a return to Lambeau, but the Packers also have the ex-team X-factor working for them.
The best Packer this season hasn't been Favre -- it's former Seahawk Ahman Green, who might be the league's fastest running back. He is completely healthy and is coming off his best career game, and he'll keep the momentum going against the team that traded him in 2000 for immortals Fred Vinson and Tim Watson. Packers 23, Seahawks 21.
SHOOTOUT OF THE WEEK
Cleveland at Pittsburgh. The Browns' offensive strength is four good receivers with which they can spread the field. The Steelers' defensive weakness is their secondary, where both of their top corners can be beaten. Regardless of who's at quarterback, Tim Couch or Kelly Holcomb, Cleveland can move the ball in the air with Kevin Johnson, Quincy Morgan, Dennis Northcutt and Andre' Davis.
Pittsburgh has a pretty nice passing game of its own, and what will cost the Browns is their own defensive weakness -- a front seven that can get run right over. That's bad news against a team that features both Amos Zereoue and Jerome Bettis. The Steelers will control the ball and the clock enough late in the game to sneak away with a wild one at home. Steelers 30, Browns 27.
UPSET OF THE WEEK
Detroit over San Francisco. OK, fine, Terrell Owens wants the ball, so give it to him more. But unless T.O. can play cornerback, he won't solve the Niners' biggest problem. Giving up 35 points had something do with them being able to score only 7 last week. Their secondary is so bad, it should be called a tertiary. Thank you, I'll be giving vocabulary lessons all season.
You have perfect timing, T.O. -- is there anything more fitting for Steve Mariucci's return to San Francisco? His team has its share of secondary problems, but in an era when great coaching is an invaluable commodity, Mariucci will get everything he can out of his new team this week and make his old team rue that it fired him. Lions 23, 49ers 19.
LOCK OF THE WEEK
Oakland over Chicago. With my penchant for jinxing the favorite in this section, this might be the only chance for the Bears to awaken from fall hibernation. To borrow loosely from high philosopher Crash Davis, they have a billion-dollar stadium and a five-cent offense.
The price of admission on the A-Train went up to a quarter as he flashed some of his rookie form last week. Although he will have some success chugging through the Raiders' front seven, he won't run as smoothly as the Purple Line's Evanston Express. (I still thank him for the fumble against Northwestern in 2000).
Back to the Silver and Black. The comeback against the Chargers put a much-needed charge into the Raiders' offense, and look for Rich Gannon and Charlie Garner to both have big games this week. If you're a Bears fan, go enjoy the fact that, somehow, it's still Cubs season. Raiders 27, Bears 17.
REST OF THE WEEK
Tennessee at New England. Everything is coming together for the Titans, as Steve McNair keeps rolling and their tough "46" defense has returned to deep-sixing opponents. They again have battled through a heap of injuries, but the Pats are even more undermanned. Without a running game, Tom Brady will feel the heat all afternoon. Titans 20, Patriots 17.
Minnesota at Atlanta. The Vikings will be another team that benefits from the absence of Michael Vick -- remember that mad overtime touchdown dash that beat them in the Metrodome last season? Minnesota might be without its own explosive playmaking quarterback again this week, but it will be just fine at 5-0 if backup Gus Frerotte keeps heaving it up for Randy Moss against Atlanta's suspect cornerbacks. Vikings 31, Falcons 16.
Cincinnati at Buffalo. Former Bengals coach Dick LeBeau will be an interested party as a Bills assistant, and one of his best former Bengals, Takeo Spikes, will be key in getting Buffalo's defense back on track. Spikes and fellow outside linebacker Jeff Posey will be aggressive in going after Jon Kitna with Corey Dillon absent from Cincy's backfield. Bills 24, Bengals 13.
Miami at New York Giants. The Dolphins have the more powerful running game with a rested Ricky Williams, but the Giants have had equal time off and feature a much more balanced offense. Once they focus on taking away Williams, the Dolphins' passing game won't be able to keep up with what Kerry Collins helps the Giants do on the scoreboard. Giants 27, Dolphins 19.
New Orleans at Carolina. The Panthers' front four will continue the struggles for Aaron Brooks and contain Deuce McAllister, and the Saints' depleted defense will wear down easily against Stephen Davis' power running. Carolina dreamin'? Not quite. The Panthers are for real, and this win officially will make them a playoff contender. Panthers 24, Saints 16.
San Diego at Jacksonville. It's fall, it's getting cold, and both cities sound like great mini-vacations, but I'm sort of tied up through the Super Bowl. This is like the Super Bowl for both teams, because one of them should get its first win -- I think. In games like these, I go with which team has the most talented player, and that's the side of LaDainian Tomlinson. Chargers 26, Jaguars 20.
WEEK OF THE REST
The Rams have settled in with "backups" Marc Bulger and Lamar Gordon as their offensive principals, and as a result, have turned to a more well-rounded game plan. Next up is a Monday night home game in which their defense will catch a break vs. the probably still Vick-less Falcons. ...
The Jets haven't figured out anything on offense, as Paul Hackett calls for plenty of bore and very little score. Curtis Martin and Vinny Testaverde don't deserve the brunt of the blame -- a lackluster line, stodgy playbook and pass-dropping receivers all have been much more lame. ...
The Ravens get a nice little break before their trip to blistering Tempe, and that means no defense needs to worry about being run over by the Hummer that is Jamal Lewis this week. ...
The Texans have played with energy and moxie, and coach Dom Capers is pushing all the right buttons to fire up his young team. Expect them to show fight all season, continuing with a tussle at Tennessee next week.
STATS OF THE WEEK
Week 4 record straight up: 12-2 (So I've got that going for me)
Week 4 record vs. the spread: 9-5 (It's a way to make a living?)
Season record straight up: 40-20 (The dreaded .666 winning clip)
Season record vs. the spread: 29-31 (Not quite Nutella)
