Today’s Draft Rumor

Krangodnzr

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Will Anderson had a good season for a rookie but I wouldn't call it Elite either. Anderson had 7 sacks last season which wasn't even the most by a rookie.

I think that both Anderson and PJJ will only get better with more experience. But I wouldn't call either Elite at this point.
I very recently heard Brett Kollmans explain how pass rush win rate is determined. NFL players have chips in their helmet and when they are within 2.5 yards from the QB, the stat dorks chalk that up to a "win". Obviously this can be problematic because if Murray breaks the pocket and comes close to Bosa, it will register as a "win".

I don't know if this is also true for college players too, but if it is, it makes the vaunted "pass rush win rate" pretty meaningless. It still means that a dude gets close to the QB often.

Anderson was off the charts on pass rush win rate and he did seem to "almost get there" very often. I think he's going to be a good player, but more Cadillac version Jerry Hughes than Nick Bosa.
 

ASUCHRIS

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Will Anderson had a good season for a rookie but I wouldn't call it Elite either. Anderson had 7 sacks last season which wasn't even the most by a rookie.

I think that both Anderson and PJJ will only get better with more experience. But I wouldn't call either Elite at this point.
ok.
 

Krangodnzr

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I dunno. I think the Hump finishes as somewhere around the 12th-20th-best OT in the NFL during his time here. He went to one pro bowl as an alternate. If PJJ is only slightly better than DJ Humphries' best five-year stretch, that's pretty mid for a top 10 pick.

I'd rather have an above-average Edge than an above average LT, though. Would you rather have Haason Reddick or DJ Humphries?
Depends highly on the alternative.

If you say you get Reddick and D'Anthony Baptiste or Humphries and Dimukeje, I'll take Humphries please. Roster building is very much like this at times.

OL gets undervalued to often, but taking a plus OL high is a winning strategy.
 

kerouac9

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If PJJ ends up better than Humphries, he will be more valuable than the 10th best edge in the game.
I completely disagree with this.

The 10th best edge in the game by pressures last year was Myles Garrett.

Here are the seven OTs invited to the Pro Bowl last year. This is a rough heuristic because I don't have PFF; we can look at other options if you like.

You must be registered for see images attach


Name four more OTs you'd have before you'd take Myles Garrett.
 

Krangodnzr

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I completely disagree with this.

The 10th best edge in the game by pressures last year was Myles Garrett.

Here are the seven OTs invited to the Pro Bowl last year. This is a rough heuristic because I don't have PFF; we can look at other options if you like.

You must be registered for see images attach


Name four more OTs you'd have before you'd take Myles Garrett.
I can't.

But Anderson doesn't have the athletic profile of Garrett. Not even close. You're taking a Hall of Fame caliber Edge and comparing that to just Pro Bowls talents.
 

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I dunno. I think the Hump finishes as somewhere around the 12th-20th-best OT in the NFL during his time here. He went to one pro bowl as an alternate. If PJJ is only slightly better than DJ Humphries' best five-year stretch, that's pretty mid for a top 10 pick.

I'd rather have an above-average Edge than an above average LT, though. Would you rather have Haason Reddick or DJ Humphries?
Not me, I would rather have the OT.

Bad OT play will get you in way more trouble than good Edge play will benefit you IMO.
 

kerouac9

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I very recently heard Brett Kollmans explain how pass rush win rate is determined. NFL players have chips in their helmet and when they are within 2.5 yards from the QB, the stat dorks chalk that up to a "win". Obviously this can be problematic because if Murray breaks the pocket and comes close to Bosa, it will register as a "win".

I don't know if this is also true for college players too, but if it is, it makes the vaunted "pass rush win rate" pretty meaningless. It still means that a dude gets close to the QB often.

Anderson was off the charts on pass rush win rate and he did seem to "almost get there" very often. I think he's going to be a good player, but more Cadillac version Jerry Hughes than Nick Bosa.

Yeah. I don't love pass rush win rate. Anderson was 21st in the NFL in pressures with 32. He was just ahead of Aaron Donald and tied with his linemate Jonathan Grennard.

Aidan Hutchinson lead the league with 62 pressures. Could be a DPOY candidate this year.
 

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He was definitely competent - didn't embarrass himself. Looks like he'll be a solid piece moving forward. The problem is giving up the defensive rookie of the year for a guy that just looks solid but unspectacular. It seems very clear that Monti views the draft as his vehicle to stars. He's already passed on a potential star for a solid player - will he make the same mistake at 4 if MHJ is there and we trade down again?

Anderson MAY be a star in the making, but let's not crown his butt just yet.

If PJ gives the CARDS a decade of worry-free tackle play, I doubt there will be much complaining.
 

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Yeah. I don't love pass rush win rate. Anderson was 21st in the NFL in pressures with 32. He was just ahead of Aaron Donald and tied with his linemate Jonathan Grennard.

Aidan Hutchinson lead the league with 62 pressures. Could be a DPOY candidate this year.
That is interesting. Hutch getting so many pressures but the defense stunk it up at times. (I think)
 

kerouac9

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I can't.

But Anderson doesn't have the athletic profile of Garrett. Not even close. You're taking a Hall of Fame caliber Edge and comparing that to just Pro Bowls talents.

I mean, that's the point, right? The five edges around Garrett in pressures are Montez Sweat, Danielle Hunter, Khalil Mack, Reddick, and Trey Hendrickson.

I'm guessing that you'd take any of those guys over the next four OTs. That's very much why a pro bowl caliber Edge is more valueable than a pro bowl caliber LT, even if I'd take an Elite LT first.
 

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Anderson MAY be a star in the making, but let's not crown his butt just yet.

If PJ gives the CARDS a decade of worry-free tackle play, I doubt there will be much complaining.
True! But if Anderson does end up being a star, and PJJ is a Hump clone...not looking so great.
 

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i think in the Anderson vs PJJ debate, because Anderson won DROY he has been assumed to be elite.

He was good for a rookie.

I think if the Cards took Anderson and he produced 7 sacks a year for his career, we wouldnt be happy with that for the 3rd overall pick
 

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i think in the Anderson vs PJJ debate, because Anderson won DROY he has been assumed to be elite.

He was good for a rookie.

I think if the Cards took Anderson and he produced 7 sacks a year for his career, we wouldnt be happy with that for the 3rd overall pick
Good thing he won't be a rookie next year, then :)
 

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I think you're short selling PJJ. I think he can be a Pro Bowlish caliber player.

And I don't think Anderson will ever be the best at his position either. He's not better than Bosa, Garrett, TJ Watt, etc.

LT>Edge.
I think for the floor that equation works. But unsure about the ceiling. For instance, I don’t think the best LT is more valuable than TJ Watt.

And of course PJJ can become a pro bowler, but he hasn’t shown that ability yet. He’s a solid tackle. I’m hoping for more.
 

Ouchie-Z-Clown

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I'm pretty confident that Will Anderson will be better than PJJ and whomever we get at 27. PJJ by all indications projects as a slightly better DJ Humphries. If Will Anderson ends up as "only" a top 10 Edge but not a top 5 or top 3, Anderson ends up the better option.



Yeah. I mean, an ELITE LT is more valuable than an elite Edge -- I'd rather have Trent Williams than Nick Bosa. I'd rather have Joe Thomas than J.J. Watt (selected because they were both on the Pro Football Hall of Fame All-Decade team) or Julius Peppers. If only because the LT affects every play and a good edge can be managed a little.
I would take TJ watt over Trent williams
 

Krangodnzr

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I completely disagree with this.

The 10th best edge in the game by pressures last year was Myles Garrett.

Here are the seven OTs invited to the Pro Bowl last year. This is a rough heuristic because I don't have PFF; we can look at other options if you like.

You must be registered for see images attach


Name four more OTs you'd have before you'd take Myles Garrett.
And to just say Garrett was 10th best in pressures as some kind of litmus and ignores all other kinds is completely disingenuous....
 

Krangodnzr

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I think for the floor that equation works. But unsure about the ceiling. For instance, I don’t think the best LT is more valuable than TJ Watt.
I do. The best LT wins the match up a very high percentage of the time.
And of course PJJ can become a pro bowler, but he hasn’t shown that ability yet. He’s a solid tackle. I’m hoping for more.
Solid tackle is pretty good for a rookie. I've watched this team for around three decades and PJJ was easily the best rookie lineman I've seen from this. Not really a high bar, but he was very solid and won matchups against some good pass rushers.
 

Ouchie-Z-Clown

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Depends highly on the alternative.

If you say you get Reddick and D'Anthony Baptiste or Humphries and Dimukeje, I'll take Humphries please. Roster building is very much like this at times.

OL gets undervalued to often, but taking a plus OL high is a winning strategy.
Sigh I hate these arguments. Let’s take a guy recognized as the worst ever at one position (on this board that’s Baptiste) and compare him to someone that feels in the same range but in reality is a better player and one that the board feels has some upside.
 

Krangodnzr

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Sigh I hate these arguments. Let’s take a guy recognized as the worst ever at one position (on this board that’s Baptiste) and compare him to someone that feels in the same range but in reality is a better player and one that the board feels has some upside.
I picked him for effect. A poor edge rusher doesn't wreck a defense the way a poor LT does. I remember watching Robert Quinn beating Baptiste every play the year Baptiste started and it literally made the Cardinals offense non-functional.
 

Krangodnzr

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the NFL agrees

top Edge contracts average $26 mm per year

top LTs are $20mm per year
This is more due to scarcity.

That's a good argument to take the pass rusher.

I just don't think Anderson will ever be a true top edge, and I'm not alone in that belief.
 
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