OT: Why you don't draft a kicker in the 2nd round

[oaken1]

Myopic huh. I'm pretty sure most would read that sentence and understand that my point was it's picks like taking a FG kicker in rd1 as to why they sucked for years. Same as drafting purely on 40 times instead of FB talent.



Reality is that having that great FG kicker hasn't won them anything.

IMHO quality FG kickers can be found late in the draft or as UDFA's. Finding QB's, CB's, OT's, DE's, DT's, OLBers are what should be prioritized in rd 1. Safety's, OG's, ILBers and OC's need to be blue chippers to be taken in rd 1.

Kickers of any sort should not be taken in the first three rds IMO.

I'm will to be $50 dollars that 70% of FG kickers on NFL rosters at the beginning of this season were drafted in rd 4 or later or are UDFA's.

at the time the Raiders were pretty good with the exception of poor special teams play... they drafted Janikowski and two years later they were in the super bowl..... they lost badly but that had little to do with the kicker
...so,...drafting a kicker "won them" an afc championship

 

[kerouac9]

One game every two years? More like every game every year. Its because your assume FGs are automatic. "Theres little difference between the top guys and bottom guys". Im in the business of winning championships. 10% is big enough. And if I have a shot at the single best player at any position, Im going to take him.

Its why we took Cooper in 2013. A Guard #8 overall is unheard of. But those guys are transcendent talents who will be a cornerstone of your team for the next 12-15 years, afterwards he'll go into the HOF.

Roberto looked like one of those guys. Same as Cooper.


To now argue it was a bad pick based on hindsight is hacky. The reasoning for the initial pick was sound and logical.

There's a lot of word salad here. Again, 10% is the difference between the top kicker and an average kicker, but no kickers are 100% every year. There's a ton of variance.

If you have a shot at the single best player at any position, you're going to take a punter or kicker every year. How do the Jags feel about taking a punter instead of Russell Wilson? What are you even talking about?

There was tons of reasons not to take Aguyao that high—which was why the pick was criticized when it was made.

 

[MadCardDisease]

You can find a decent kicker on the open market every year. Spending a high round draft pick on one is a waste.

 

[Russ Smith]

With a second-round pick? Another linebacker/defensive end/defensive back/RB/almost anything.

Even if "most" games are won and lost on FGs, the difference between the best kicker in the NFL (Dan Bailey, Josh Brown, or Steven Hauschka) and a below-average kicker (Mike Nugent, for example) is 10 percent accuracy. On about 30 kicks per season, you're talking about 3 kicks going wide left, right, or short. Not to mention that kicker performance has a high variance from year to year. Mason Crosby was T16th in FG% last year; Janikowski was 32nd.

Basically, you're giving up the opportunity for a potential starter at a skill position for a VERY marginal improvement at a position that might make the difference in one game every two years.

I agree with everything you wrote but I do think having an accurate kicker, makes a big difference in how coaches can call the game. If they have a guy they can rely on to make FG's sometimes it can play a role in decision making where maybe you don't take the chance and end up throwing an interception that costs you the game or something.

But I completely agree taking a kicker that high in the draft if at all is a pretty iffy decision.

 

[kerouac9]

I agree with everything you wrote but I do think having an accurate kicker, makes a big difference in how coaches can call the game. If they have a guy they can rely on to make FG's sometimes it can play a role in decision making where maybe you don't take the chance and end up throwing an interception that costs you the game or something.

But I completely agree taking a kicker that high in the draft if at all is a pretty iffy decision.

But what does "accurate kicker" mean? Justin Tucker is the 2nd most accurate kicker of all time, and his career FG% is 87.8%, but his last two seasons have been below that mark (85.3 and 82.5). So is he accurate or not?

Janikowski is the 39th-most accurate kicker in NFL history. Mason Crosby is 47th all time. There's just too much variance in a kicker's performance year to year to say, "This guy is going to be great forever."

 

[Russ Smith]

But what does "accurate kicker" mean? Justin Tucker is the 2nd most accurate kicker of all time, and his career FG% is 87.8%, but his last two seasons have been below that mark (85.3 and 82.5). So is he accurate or not?

Janikowski is the 39th-most accurate kicker in NFL history. Mason Crosby is 47th all time. There's just too much variance in a kicker's performance year to year to say, "This guy is going to be great forever."

Right I mean in a given year if a kicker is just having an incredible year, it makes it easier on the coach to at times play conservative. Or in certain situations. For example Belichick never had to worry that Vinatieri was going to choke and miss a critical kick from less than 39 yards because he was damn near automatic on those kicks, if my math is right 91% in his Pats career 39 or shorter FG's. It allows a coach to not have to gamble as much as if he had a less reliable kicker.

That's why I never get why people get fascinated by kickers with big legs, who aren't necessarily accurate. yeah that 59 yard FG might come in handy now and then but I'd much rather have the guy who virtually never misses from 40 on in.

 

[MadCardDisease]

There's just too much variance in a kicker's performance year to year to say, "This guy is going to be great forever."

Neil Rackers... 95% one year... 70% the next...

 

[Bodha]

If you have a shot at the single best player at any position, you're going to take a punter or kicker every year. How do the Jags feel about taking a punter instead of Russell Wilson? What are you even talking about?

There is the issue with your argument. You are talking about the value of the kicker position in general. Which generally youd be correct.

However, this discussion is of one specific kicker. We are not talking about "the best kicker in this years draft". Roberto is statistically the best K in college history. If you took every kicker in every draft for the last 20 years, Roberto was better than all of them. If that doesn't warrant a 2nd round pick, I don't know what does.


That's why I brought up Cooper as an example. He wasn't just the best guard available in 2013. He was the best guard available in 2012, 2011, 2010, 2009, 2008, 2007, 2006, etc. The last Guard drafted in the top 10? Ironically it was Leonard Davis in 2001.

And yet Coop was the 1st G in 13 years to warrant a top 10 pick because he was special, regardless of positional value.

 

[kerouac9]

There is the issue with your argument. You are talking about the value of the kicker position in general. Which generally youd be correct.

However, this discussion is of one specific kicker. We are not talking about "the best kicker in this years draft". Roberto is statistically the best K in college history. If you took every kicker in every draft for the last 20 years, Roberto was better than all of them. If that doesn't warrant a 2nd round pick, I don't know what does.


That's why I brought up Cooper as an example. He wasn't just the best guard available in 2013. He was the best guard available in 2012, 2011, 2010, 2009, 2008, 2007, 2006, etc. The last Guard drafted in the top 10? Ironically it was Leonard Davis in 2001.

And yet Coop was the 1st G in 13 years to warrant a top 10 pick because he was special, regardless of positional value.

Nonsense. He was the first G taken in 13 years because it was a historically terrible draft at the top. Both him and Chance Warmack have been pretty remarkable busts.

If you took the best kicker of all time, you'd have Dan Bailey, who was undrafted. There's very little evidence to support the idea that specialists can be identified based on past performance or in college.

Aguayo's conversion percentage dropped each of the three years he was at Florida State. His junior year he missed nearly 20% of his field goal attempts (http://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/roberto-aguayo-1.html). Not Elite!

 

[Bodha]

Nonsense. He was the first G taken in 13 years because it was a historically terrible draft at the top. Both him and Chance Warmack have been pretty remarkable busts.

If you took the best kicker of all time, you'd have Dan Bailey, who was undrafted. There's very little evidence to support the idea that specialists can be identified based on past performance or in college.

Aguayo's conversion percentage dropped each of the three years he was at Florida State. His junior year he missed nearly 20% of his field goal attempts (http://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/roberto-aguayo-1.html). Not Elite!

1. hindsight. 2013 class seemed average at the time. It only lacked a clear #1 player.

2. If college performance isn't an accurate gauge, then how do you assess them? Of course it is. If I have 2 kickers, im taking the kicker who kicks better, duh. Roberto kicks better than any other college kicker.

3. Even with his drop in %, he was still the best. Whether that's a testament to how good he is, or how bad all other college kickers are is irrelevant, hes the best either way.

 

[cardncubfan]

1. hindsight. 2013 class seemed average at the time. It only lacked a clear #1 player.

2. If college performance isn't an accurate gauge, then how do you assess them? Of course it is. If I have 2 kickers, im taking the kicker who kicks better, duh. Roberto kicks better than any other college kicker.

3. Even with his drop in %, he was still the best. Whether that's a testament to how good he is, or how bad all other college kickers are is irrelevant, hes the best either way.

He could have been had in the 7th or picked up after the draft.

 

[Finito]

He could have been had in the 7th or picked up after the draft.

No he could not of been had in the 7th come on now. The kid was special at FSU plain and simple.

Janikowski was the last kicker drafted so high and he's the Raiders all time leading scorer and going to the hall of fame I'd say that worked out pretty well.

 

[Cardiac]

at the time the Raiders were pretty good with the exception of poor special teams play... they drafted Janikowski and two years later they were in the super bowl..... they lost badly but that had little to do with the kicker
...so,...drafting a kicker "won them" an afc championship

http://www.drafthistory.com/index.php/years/2000

My bad for not remembering the Raiders were not sucking when the drafted Janikowski. Now look at all the quality "real" football players taken after Jan in the draft that year.


Now look at how many FG kickers were drafted high in the history of the NFL. I'm not devoting more time to breaking this down any further because IMO it's obvious that drafting kickers early is stupid.

If your team is completely stocked and you have zero holes then okay, draft a kicker but to trade up in the 2nd rd when you had a losing record the year before is simply moronic.

http://www.drafthistory.com/index.php/positions/k

 

[Bodha]

My bad for not remembering the Raiders were not sucking when the drafted Janikowski. Now look at all the quality "real" football players taken after Jan in the draft that year.


Now look at how many FG kickers were drafted high in the history of the NFL. I'm not devoting more time to breaking this down any further because IMO it's obvious that drafting kickers early is stupid.

If your team is completely stocked and you have zero holes then okay, draft a kicker but to trade up in the 2nd rd when you had a losing record the year before is simply moronic.

The common theme with all of you who oppose the Roberto pick is:

1. Argument reliant on hindsight.

2. Generalization of the kicker position, and not the player in question.

The reasoning for why it was a good pick is very sound, but you won't understand it until you break these mindsets. #1 is a time machine argument, which is worthless. #2 is several degrees off-topic. We aren't talking about other kickers. We are talking about Roberto specifically.

 

[kerouac9]

1. hindsight. 2013 class seemed average at the time. It only lacked a clear #1 player.

2. If college performance isn't an accurate gauge, then how do you assess them? Of course it is. If I have 2 kickers, im taking the kicker who kicks better, duh. Roberto kicks better than any other college kicker.

3. Even with his drop in %, he was still the best. Whether that's a testament to how good he is, or how bad all other college kickers are is irrelevant, hes the best either way.

1. The 2013 class was widely viewed as terrible at the time, particularly at the top. I mean, goodness gracious—someone traded into the top 2 to draft Dion Jordan.

2. You assess college kickers the same way you assess college quarterbacks: you look at their fundamentals and process, not necessarily results. Things like timing to the ball (quicker is better), form in kicking, etc., are more important than kicking a lot through for a big college program. If you're really interested in this, I'd suggest reading "A Few Seconds of Panic" by Stefan Fatsis.

3. So a guy who gets worse every year and never has to kick from far away is still "the best"? I think this Johnny Manziel guy and Tim Tebow can be great pro QBs! Look at how well they did in college! Sad!

 

[Bodha]

1. The 2013 class was widely viewed as terrible at the time, particularly at the top. I mean, goodness gracious—someone traded into the top 2 to draft Dion Jordan.

2. You assess college kickers the same way you assess college quarterbacks: you look at their fundamentals and process, not necessarily results. Things like timing to the ball (quicker is better), form in kicking, etc., are more important than kicking a lot through for a big college program. If you're really interested in this, I'd suggest reading "A Few Seconds of Panic" by Stefan Fatsis.

3. So a guy who gets worse every year and never has to kick from far away is still "the best"? I think this Johnny Manziel guy and Tim Tebow can be great pro QBs! Look at how well they did in college! Sad!

1. You are consistent with your hindsight. Dion Jordan looked like a beast. nobody had any idea he was going to drug bust out of the league. But also nobody is psychic. Rest of the class was average. Even using your awful hindsight reliance, theres plenty of pro bowlers who came from that class.

2. Youre making up stuff now. That was the silliest thing ive ever read on here. Correct answer: you judge kickers by how well they kick FGs. Stop trying to overthink it. They aren't QBs.

3. OK, use your QB example: If a QBs college career looks like this:
2011 - 50 TDs
2012 - 46 TDs
2013 - 35 TDs

He got 'worse'.

And all other QBs look like this:

2011 - 36 TDs
2012 - 33 TDs
2013 - 34 TDs

....Hes still better than them, altho he "got worse".

 

[Cardiac]

The common theme with all of you who oppose the Roberto pick is:

1. Argument reliant on hindsight.

Actually history that shows that drafting FG kickers high is rare and almost always ends in complete failure.

2. Generalization of the kicker position, and not the player in question.

Yes, I'm guilty of saying that FG kickers aren't worthy of being picked early in the draft. Reason is that hundreds of great FG kickers were chosen late in the draft or went undrafted. In addition the player in question doesn't have a strong leg and has a lousy % from 50 yds out and isn't good on Kick offs.

The reasoning for why it was a good pick is very sound, but you won't understand it until you break these mindsets. #1 is a time machine argument, which is worthless. #2 is several degrees off-topic. We aren't talking about other kickers. We are talking about Roberto specifically.

Roberto may turn out to be a great kicker but he won't make the hall of fame and his impact on the Bucs making the playoffs won't be any greater than 90% of the kickers in the NFL.

 

[Harry]

Part of drafting I'd knowing where your team is positioned. The Bucs' market is forcing them to be more competitive. He's the closest kicker to a sure thing in a few years. The Bucs are concerned with a young QB who needs scoring support. The Bucs are fringe playoff contenders this year and the future is now.

 

[Cbus cardsfan]

I don't have any problem taking a kicker in round 2. Having a "sure footed" clutch kicker is a huge asset. Who ever thought Neil Rackers was going to make a clutch kick?

I'd be willing to bet Aguayo will have a longer, more successful, more impactful career than Markus Golden. Is Golden the better pick because he plays OLB?

I agree kickers can be found later in the draft and as UDFA but getting a good one, even if it's in round 2, is worth it.

 

[Bodha]

he won't make the hall of fame

Explain

 

[Cardiac]

Explain

How many FG kickers are in the Hall of Fame? I don't think he has the leg strength to garner such a rare accomplishment. His accuracy from 50 yards out is not good.

 

[kerouac9]

I don't have any problem taking a kicker in round 2. Having a "sure footed" clutch kicker is a huge asset. Who ever thought Neil Rackers was going to make a clutch kick?

I'd be willing to bet Aguayo will have a longer, more successful, more impactful career than Markus Golden. Is Golden the better pick because he plays OLB?

I agree kickers can be found later in the draft and as UDFA but getting a good one, even if it's in round 2, is worth it.

It makes no sense to compare the length of careers between a kicker and a linebacker. If Golden plays 6 years and starts 14 games per year with 8 sacks per season and is an above-average starter, he's a better pick than Aguayo playing 12 years as an above-average kicker.

I think the other thing with Aguayo is that he doesn't have a great leg. One thing that IS consistent with kickers is kickoff depth/touchbacks. It's not clear that Agauayo is going to be able to kick the ball out of the back of the end zone with any consistency.

 

[Cardiac]

I don't have any problem taking a kicker in round 2. Having a "sure footed" clutch kicker is a huge asset. Who ever thought Neil Rackers was going to make a clutch kick?

Having a sure footed kicker is a huge asset and there are a ton of them to be had as UDFA's.

I'd be willing to bet Aguayo will have a longer, more successful, more impactful career than Markus Golden. Is Golden the better pick because he plays OLB?

Yes I think Golden is the better pick because he is an OLB. I'll take Catman as a UDFA and Golden over Aguayo and the other player they couldn't pick because they traded up to get him.

I agree kickers can be found later in the draft and as UDFA but getting a good one, even if it's in round 2, is worth it.

Vinatieri is worth it because he is the most clutch FG kicker ever and he was an UDFA. It's just too easy to find good FG kickers without spending draft capital.

 

[Bodha]

How many FG kickers are in the Hall of Fame? I don't think he has the leg strength to garner such a rare accomplishment. His accuracy from 50 yards out is not good.

Your arguments against him are absurdly thin. New flash - not many kickers are great from 50+. Good news is most teams don't ask their kickers to hit it from 50+ often enough for it to matter.

And the reason he has a better shot at the HOF than virtually any other college kicker weve seen in the draft for the last 20 years is that hes practically automatic from everywhere else on the field.

 

[kerouac9]

Your arguments against him are absurdly thin. New flash - not many kickers are great from 50+. Good news is most teams don't ask their kickers to hit it from 50+ often enough for it to matter.

And the reason he has a better shot at the HOF than virtually any other college kicker weve seen in the draft for the last 20 years is that hes practically automatic from everywhere else on the field.

Not in the preseason (or practice, apparently) he's not.

http://thebiglead.com/2016/08/23/roberto-aguayo-booed-heckled-at-buccaneers-practice/

Missed three of six kicks in practice. Automatic.