OT: Why you don't draft a kicker in the 2nd round

[BigRedRage]

 

[GatorAZ]

Anyone see the JUCO tranfer for Florida. Guy is nailing 70+ yarders in practice and was perfect in his first college game.

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[cardncubfan]

Anyone see the JUCO tranfer for Florida. Guy is nailing 70+ yarders in practice and was perfect in his first college game.

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Quick, trade a 1st round pick for him!

 

[Bodha]

Not in the preseason (or practice, apparently) he's not.

http://thebiglead.com/2016/08/23/roberto-aguayo-booed-heckled-at-buccaneers-practice/

Missed three of six kicks in practice. Automatic.

That's why Tampa shouldn't have drafted him in the 2nd round on April 29th, 2016? Because he would miss multiple FGs 3 months later? What morons they were.

try harder to not be thick.

 

[kerouac9]

That's why Tampa shouldn't have drafted him in the 2nd round on April 29th, 2016? Because he would miss multiple FGs 3 months later? What morons they were.

try harder to not be dumb.

You're the one who said he was "nearly automatic" outside of 40 yards. It must be nice to have two arguments and conflate them when you need to:

A) No, the Bucs should never have traded up to draft a kicker because (1) the draft is a crapshoot, (2) by using a high pick, you make it difficult/embarrassing to cut bait on the guy if he fails quickly, (3) the marginal difference between an average kicker in the NFL and THE BEST KICKER OF ALL TIME is very, very small—much smaller than the marginal difference than J.J. Watt and Frostee Rucker. That's why positional value is important.

B) Aguayo isn't that special a prospect, anyway.

 

[Bodha]

You're the one who said he was "nearly automatic" outside of 40 yards. It must be nice to have two arguments and conflate them when you need to:

A) No, the Bucs should never have traded up to draft a kicker because (1) the draft is a crapshoot, (2) by using a high pick, you make it difficult/embarrassing to cut bait on the guy if he fails quickly, (3) the marginal difference between an average kicker in the NFL and THE BEST KICKER OF ALL TIME is very, very small—much smaller than the marginal difference than J.J. Watt and Frostee Rucker. That's why positional value is important.

B) Aguayo isn't that special a prospect, anyway.

We're talking about why it was/was not a good pick.

Its truly astounding how many of you keep bringing up how his preseason is going as if that's relevant to the decision made 3 months ago. Do any of you understand what hindsight is? Or the phrase "AT THE TIME"? Somebody help me with this.

1. Yes, its all about odds. The reason Roberto was a good pick was his odds were stronger than any other player/kicker based on his resume. If most players are 50-50 succeed/fail, Roberto is 52-48 succeed.

2. Statistically best player at his position in college ever. But yeah, you sound smart. WTH is your bar for "special"?

 

[kerouac9]

We're talking about why it was/was not a good pick.

Its truly astounding how many of you keep bringing up how his preseason is going as if that's relevant to the decision made 3 months ago. Do any of you understand what hindsight is? Or the phrase "AT THE TIME"? Somebody help me with this.

1. Yes, its all about odds. The reason Roberto was a good pick was his odds were stronger than any other player/kicker based on his resume. If most players are 50-50 succeed/fail, Roberto is 52-48 succeed.

2. Statistically best player at his position in college ever. But yeah, you sound smart. WTH is your bar for "special"?

I already talked about this. Just because a guy completes 70% of his three-yard pass attempts in college doesn't mean that he's an NFL quarterback prospect. When evaluating kickers, you throw out the stats — the difference in the pro prospects is meaningless.

And he's not even the most accurate college kicker ever: http://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/leaders/fg-pct-player-career.html

The difference between Aguayo and Kai Forbath is 5% — that's maybe a missed kick every two seasons. Most kicks are not game-winners.

If you're actually interested in how to scout specialists (and you're not; you're just trying to win a point) you can read A Few Seconds of Panic by Stefan Fatsis, which is a good book, or you can look here: http://bleacherreport.com/articles/...possible-task-of-scouting-kickers-and-punters

A kicker's film can just be difficult to interpret. Westhoff is looking for consistency and precision as much as he is looking for makes, misses and lengths.

"How many steps does he take?" Westhoff asks. "If it's three steps, I don't even want to deal with it. It takes too long. If it's two-and-a-half, with a little jab, I want to time it. If you're late, they'll push the pocket back and they'll tip it. Does he have quirks? Is he twisting too much? Is he inconsistent? Where's his plant foot? Is it in the same place in relation to the ball on clip after clip?"

Bonamego, too, stressed precision when watching game film. But he also looked for signs of elite ability that might not show up on the field-goal cutups. Rookie Eagles kicker Cody Parkey, for example, stood out because of his pure strength on kickoffs. "His field-goal percentage in college was not great," Bonamego said (Parkey was 39-of-53 in his Auburn career). "But the wow factor for Parkey was his kickoffs. The guy had an unmistakable NFL-quality leg."

 

[Bodha]

I already talked about this. Just because a guy completes 70% of his three-yard pass attempts in college doesn't mean that he's an NFL quarterback prospect. When evaluating kickers, you throw out the stats — the difference in the pro prospects is meaningless.

And he's not even the most accurate college kicker ever: http://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/leaders/fg-pct-player-career.html

The difference between Aguayo and Kai Forbath is 5% — that's maybe a missed kick every two seasons. Most kicks are not game-winners.

If you're actually interested in how to scout specialists (and you're not; you're just trying to win a point) you can read A Few Seconds of Panic by Stefan Fatsis, which is a good book, or you can look here: http://bleacherreport.com/articles/...possible-task-of-scouting-kickers-and-punters

Stop comparing Kickers to QBs. Its not remotely the same. Are kickers standing back there reading the defense? Please. Kicker and Punter are the easiest positions in sports to scout.


And that quote about Parkey doesn't even matter. Hes got a huge leg but trash accuracy, whos that remind you of? Logan Thomas.

Roberto is a young Peyton Manning. Not the strongest but can put it on a dime and win superbowls.

 

[Cardiac]

Quick, trade a 1st round pick for him!

5/5

 

[Cardiac]

Stop comparing Kickers to QBs. Its not remotely the same. Are kickers standing back there reading the defense? Please. Kicker and Punter are the easiest positions in sports to scout.

That's the point, kickers just kick the ball and they don't read defenses or make quick decisions or typically impact a game.


And that quote about Parkey doesn't even matter. Hes got a huge leg but trash accuracy, whos that remind you of? Logan Thomas.

And now you are comparing QB's and Kickers. SMH

Roberto is a young Peyton Manning. Not the strongest but can put it on a dime and win superbowls.

Comparing a Kicker to Peyton Manning is maybe the biggest stretch ever. While I agree with Rich Eissen that kickers are people too they just aren't people who you trade up in the 2nd rd to pick.

 

[Cbus cardsfan]

It makes no sense to compare the length of careers between a kicker and a linebacker. If Golden plays 6 years and starts 14 games per year with 8 sacks per season and is an above-average starter, he's a better pick than Aguayo playing 12 years as an above-average kicker.

I think the other thing with Aguayo is that he doesn't have a great leg. One thing that IS consistent with kickers is kickoff depth/touchbacks. It's not clear that Agauayo is going to be able to kick the ball out of the back of the end zone with any consistency.

Agree, if Golden puts up those number, he's clearly the better pick. If he has a career, say comparable to the accomplishments of a Frostee Rucker, and Aguayo becomes a top 5-10 kicker, then Roberto is the better pick.

Personally, I'd draft Golden over Aguayo everyday and take the chance to see if he can put up those numbers but, likely, the better bet is Aguayo performing at the higher level.

 

[Bodha]

Comparing a Kicker to Peyton Manning is maybe the biggest stretch ever. While I agree with Rich Eissen that kickers are people too they just aren't people who you trade up in the 2nd rd to pick.

Im comparing them to Peyton and Logan in an effort to spoon feed you the simple logic for why hes a good pick since youre the one who keeps comparing them to QBs.


A kicker lost the Den v Car game last night. If there were a kicker in the 2nd round of the draft whos a near guarantee to be a dependable, clutch player and make those kicks...I think Carolina would love to go back in time and draft him.

Tampa was considering that scenario as a foresight. "Someday we're going to need a kicker to win us a game. And heres a kicker who has better odds of not-busting than any other kicker out there."

 

[kerouac9]

Im comparing them to Peyton and Logan in an effort to spoon feed you the simple logic for why hes a good pick since youre the one who keeps comparing them to QBs.


A kicker lost the Den v Car game last night. If there were a kicker in the 2nd round of the draft whos a near guarantee to be a dependable, clutch player and make those kicks...I think Carolina would love to go back in time and draft him.

Tampa was considering that scenario as a foresight. "Someday we're going to need a kicker to win us a game. And heres a kicker who has better odds of not-busting than any other kicker out there."

Who is this person? If you look back at ALL THE KICKERS EVER, you see that there's no one who's a near-guarantee to be dependable in a 90%+ way year after year.

You're acting like Aguayo is some sui generis prospect. That's just not the case.

 

[Bodha]

Who is this person? If you look back at ALL THE KICKERS EVER, you see that there's no one who's a near-guarantee to be dependable in a 90%+ way year after year.

You're acting like Aguayo is some sui generis prospect. That's just not the case.

If all other kickers are 98.1 and Roberto is 98.5, that's why.

only .4 difference?!

Yes. That's a .4 edge over all other teams. And that .4 can mean the difference between winning and losing. If Graham Gano were .4 better, maybe the Panthers would be 1-0 today.

 

[kerouac9]

If all other kickers are 98.1 and Roberto is 98.5, that's why.

only .4 difference?!

Yes. That's a .4 edge over all other teams. And that .4 can mean the difference between winning and losing. If Graham Gano were .4 better, maybe the Panthers would be 1-0 today.

That .4% is one additional kick every three years.

 

[Bodha]

That .4% is one additional kick every three years.

No its not. Its like roulette. You might get 10 reds in a row. then a green. Then 10 more reds. And then 3 blacks.

Its not linear.

That .4 might mean Roberto never misses a regular season FG in his entire career.

 

[kerouac9]

No its not. Its like roulette. You might get 10 reds in a row. then a green. Then 10 more reds. And then 3 blacks.

Its not linear.

That .4 might mean Roberto never misses a regular season FG in his entire career.

No. That's 100%. Any kicker getting over 90% accuracy in a career would be unheard of. The best kickers average about 88%; average kickers are about 84%. Kickers across the league average about 30 attempts per season. Over a career, you're talking about 3-4 kicks, and you can't say that those misses are going to come only in game-winning situations (like with Gano last night) any more than I can say they only come when the team is outside of 14 points.

Averages are what they are. It makes no sense whatsoever to say "If Aguayo is 92% for his career, it means he could miss 0 kicks.

 

[Bodha]

No. That's 100%. Any kicker getting over 90% accuracy in a career would be unheard of. The best kickers average about 88%; average kickers are about 84%. Kickers across the league average about 30 attempts per season. Over a career, you're talking about 3-4 kicks, and you can't say that those misses are going to come only in game-winning situations (like with Gano last night) any more than I can say they only come when the team is outside of 14 points.

Averages are what they are. It makes no sense whatsoever to say "If Aguayo is 92% for his career, it means he could miss 0 kicks.

You don't understand odds. Ill make it simpler:

50-50

Flip a coin 100 times. It will probably land on both heads and tails interchangeably. Most likely. Could it land on heads 100 straight times? YES. In theory, it could.

Now say the odds were a mere 51-49 on that same coin.

However improbable, the odds that it actually does land on heads 100 straight times just increased by 1%.


Roberto has a .4 chance better than all other kickers to never miss a FG. Unlikely? Absolutely. However, that .4 still exists.

 

[kerouac9]

You don't understand odds. Ill make it simpler:

50-50

Flip a coin 100 times. It will probably land on both heads and tails interchangeably. Most likely. Could it land on heads 100 straight times? YES. In theory, it could.

Now say the odds were a mere 51-49 on that same coin.

However improbable, the odds that it actually does land on heads 100 straight times just increased by 1%.


Roberto has a .4 chance better than all other kickers to never miss a FG. Unlikely? Absolutely. However, that .4 still exists.

The possibility that you flip a coin 100 times and it comes up heads every time is not 50-50. It's .5^100 — infintesimal. The 50-50 chance is only that they're going to make THE NEXT KICK.

Your argument is Trump-level incoherent.

 

[Russ Smith]

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/kickers-are-forever/

Might be relevant

 

[kerouac9]

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/kickers-are-forever/

Might be relevant

That's a cool article. Looking at the career accuracy rankings, like 10 of the top 12 most accurate kickers are active right now.

 

[Russ Smith]

That's a cool article. Looking at the career accuracy rankings, like 10 of the top 12 most accurate kickers are active right now.

Yeah the part that surprised me was that 50% of the increase in scoring in NFL games over X years is due to improvements by kickers.

That if you took a really good current kicker and went back in time with him to the 80's or 90's the advantage you'd have over the rest of the NFL is staggering.

 

[Bodha]

The possibility that you flip a coin 100 times and it comes up heads every time is not 50-50. It's .5^100 — infintesimal. The 50-50 chance is only that they're going to make THE NEXT KICK.

Your argument is Trump-level incoherent.

And the next kick is all that matters.

The past 99 kicks don't have zero influence on kick #100.


Your logic is the same as a roulette gambler saying "its DUE for a black!".

no its. Its not "due" for anything. Its forever 50-50.

 

[bankybruce]

Yeah the part that surprised me was that 50% of the increase in scoring in NFL games over X years is due to improvements by kickers.

That if you took a really good current kicker and went back in time with him to the 80's or 90's the advantage you'd have over the rest of the NFL is staggering.

Maybe not. You have to wonder how much of the increased success is technology driven. Better equipment, both on and off of the field. Video to help with form. Less crappy turf. More enclosed stadiums. Lots of potential factors.

 

[bankybruce]

Funny how much this guy is wrong

Diaconis is a professor of mathematics and statistics at Stanford University and, formerly, a professional magician. While his claim to fame is determining how many times a deck of cards must be shuffled in order to give a mathematically random result (it’s either five or seven, depending on your criteria), he’s also dabbled in the world of coin games. What he and his fellow researchers discovered (here’s a PDF of their paper) is that most games of chance involving coins aren’t as even as you’d think. For example, even the 50/50 coin toss really isn’t 50/50 — it’s closer to 51/49, biased toward whatever side was up when the coin was thrown into the air

http://www.smithsonianmag.com/scien...dds-in-a-coin-flip-arent-quite-5050-145465423