football karma
Happy in the pretense of knowledge
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Injuries: they matter. Ask a 49er fan. Football outsiders tracks this stuff, and this year added a "games lost to Covid" as well.
2020 Adjusted Games Lost: Part I | Football Outsiders
looking at the NFC West--
Rams had a largely injury free year for them last year: they ranked 5th (higher ranking = fewer games lost) for injuries and 2nd when including covid losses.
Arizona ranked 23rd for both injuries and covid+injuries -- bottom third.
Seattle was 26th for injuries but 20th for both
SF (not surprisingly) was 32nd for both
if you believe that injuries are generally random ( I do) --
regression to the mean suggests the Rams have the most to lose next year, the 49ers the most to gain and AZ and SEA should have a better year.
Randomness also says mean regression cant be counted on
2020 Adjusted Games Lost: Part I | Football Outsiders
looking at the NFC West--
Rams had a largely injury free year for them last year: they ranked 5th (higher ranking = fewer games lost) for injuries and 2nd when including covid losses.
Arizona ranked 23rd for both injuries and covid+injuries -- bottom third.
Seattle was 26th for injuries but 20th for both
SF (not surprisingly) was 32nd for both
if you believe that injuries are generally random ( I do) --
regression to the mean suggests the Rams have the most to lose next year, the 49ers the most to gain and AZ and SEA should have a better year.
Randomness also says mean regression cant be counted on
