How much of an affect will a rookie QB have on THIS YEAR's record?

[Solar7]

This is especially a question for those of you enthused about the idea of giving up next year's #1 (or more) to move up for one of the top QBs...

How do you think that a rookie QB will change the effectiveness of this roster? 2 more wins? 6 more wins? Immediate playoff/Super Bowl contention?

My main point for asking this is what do you think we're really giving up next year for a QB today?

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In my opinion, we're going to win 5 or less games, putting us squarely in the top 10, maybe even the top 5. I'm going to have a very hard time swallowing the Giants standing up at the podium next year with our #3 overall pick, getting a superstar, while we had Baker Mayfield/Josh Rosen sit on the bench for 8 games and only play once the season was a complete loss.

 

[JeffGollin]

Realistic answer: A lot or very little. Lots of different variables (including luck) influence a rook's impact on a team's season.

 

[Stout]

So you think Keim has screwed the team up that bad? Glad to hear you admit that his QB solutions were bad ones.

There's no telling how much, positively or negatively, a rookie QB will have on the record. If I'm guessing, I'd say it wouldn't make us any worse, as I share your sentiments that we'll suck. If they're the talent we hope we're getting, I'd say an extra five or six game boost would be normal (our current QB situation is abysmal), and the playoffs aren't outside the realm of possibility.

And if we get the next Peyton Manning, I don't give a rat's ass what the Giants do with our #3 overall pick.

 

[oaken1]

that question is only relevant if you are focused on the short game. Going after a rookie franchise QB is about the long game. Not what will he do for me now... but what will he do for me three years from now and continue doing for the next fifteen years.

some rooks come in and do great. but some of the very best have come in and absolutely stunk the place up in their rookie year.

there are too many variables. outside of the kid himself,... wilks, mccoy, and even leftwich all have an impact on how the kid would succeed or fail.... DJ's health and effectiveness...oh crap, the oline will even have an affect.

but I will go out on a limb. as our team sits....if our coaching staff does a decent job... I think we could win 9-10 games this season with Sam Darnold at QB

we got Larry...a pass catching TE...should have a strong running game and a stingy defense and are likely to draft a solid WR to compliment Larry in his twilight...

but honestly... what the kid does in his rookie year is moot...if he manages to win, and take the team to the playoffs,..well thats just gravy

 

[Solar7]

So you think Keim has screwed the team up that bad? Glad to hear you admit that his QB solutions were bad ones.

There's no telling how much, positively or negatively, a rookie QB will have on the record. If I'm guessing, I'd say it wouldn't make us any worse, as I share your sentiments that we'll suck. If they're the talent we hope we're getting, I'd say an extra five or six game boost would be normal (our current QB situation is abysmal), and the playoffs aren't outside the realm of possibility.

And if we get the next Peyton Manning, I don't give a rat's ass what the Giants do with our #3 overall pick.

There's a big combination of things leading to my feelings about the team - some Keim's fault, some that aren't his fault. I understand why they happened.

I think his QB solution didn't pan out, which was Kirk Cousins, which is what I wanted. But there's nothing he could have done there. I'm more worried about our WR and CB situation than I am QB, though - as looking into my crystal ball, the cupboard is bare and we need assets to refill it. It's like a shiny, nice car that is up on blocks because it has no tires.

I also don't think rookies tend to have great years, so that's why I see us struggling, even if the guy is good to great.

 

[Solar7]

that question is only relevant if you are focused on the short game. Going after a rookie franchise QB is about the long game. Not what will he do for me now... but what will he do for me three years from now and continue doing for the next fifteen years.

some rooks come in and do great. but some of the very best have come in and absolutely stunk the place up in their rookie year.

there are too many variables. outside of the kid himself,... wilks, mccoy, and even leftwich all have an impact on how the kid would succeed or fail.... DJ's health and effectiveness...oh crap, the oline will even have an affect.

but I will go out on a limb. as our team sits....if our coaching staff does a decent job... I think we could win 9-10 games this season with Sam Darnold at QB

we got Larry...a pass catching TE...should have a strong running game and a stingy defense and are likely to draft a solid WR to compliment Larry in his twilight...

but honestly... what the kid does in his rookie year is moot...if he manages to win, and take the team to the playoffs,..well thats just gravy

It's not moot because it directly affects our future.

All first round picks aren't equal. The Chiefs are probably plenty fine with the first they gave up for Mahomes, since it's in the 20s. The Texans? Not so much. They have big needs and nothing to fill them with.

 

[Zeno]

The QBs impact isn't for THIS year it is for the future. Trading picks to draft a QB this year isn't about improving our record this year.

The current roster gets us 7-8 wins unless the new coaching staff is awful IMO which puts us firmly in the same draft position as we are in now +/- 2 spots or so.

 

[Solar7]

The QBs impact isn't for THIS year it is for the future. Trading picks to draft a QB this year isn't about improving our record this year.

The current roster gets us 7-8 wins unless the new coaching staff is awful IMO which puts us firmly in the same draft position as we are in now +/- 2 spots or so.

The point is that the QB is going to affect our future by removing our future draft picks - and if the team is bad, a future draft pick that could be a true generational talent.

 

[oaken1]

It's not moot because it directly affects our future.

All first round picks aren't equal. The Chiefs are probably plenty fine with the first they gave up for Mahomes, since it's in the 20s. The Texans? Not so much. They have big needs and nothing to fill them with.

which pick it turns out to be only means two things...jack..and squat

what is important is that they get the right guy.

"which pick" is only important if they pick the wrong guy... because thats when everyone is wailing, decrying, and bemoaning the loss of the pick for nothing...it is a compounded failure in that case.

also.... which pick means squat next year for one simple reason.
none of the QB's in next years draft are as good as Sam Darnold... none, not a single one, nada, zero...

having a top three pick NEXT year to draft a QB gets us a guy who would go somewhere around 15-20 this year

get back with me in five years when you see I'm right

 

[Solar7]

which pick it turns out to be only means two things...jack..and squat

what is important is that they get the right guy.

"which pick" is only important if they pick the wrong guy... because thats when everyone is wailing, decrying, and bemoaning the loss of the pick for nothing...it is a compounded failure in that case.

also.... which pick means squat next year for one simple reason.
none of the QB's in next years draft are as good as Sam Darnold... none, not a single one, nada, zero...

having a top three pick NEXT year to draft a QB gets us a guy who would go somewhere around 15-20 this year

get back with me in five years when you see I'm right

"Which pick" matters because you have to ask yourself if you'd rather have a "great" QB and Brice Butler at WR2, or a "good" QB with an All-Pro WR or CB.

That's the combo we're missing out on if we trade away our first rounders in the future. QBs can't win the game on their own.

 

[oaken1]

"Which pick" matters because you have to ask yourself if you'd rather have a "great" QB and Brice Butler at WR2, or a "good" QB with an All-Pro WR or CB.

That's the combo we're missing out on if we trade away our first rounders in the future. QBs can't win the game on their own.

really.

how many "great" wr's has Brady won super bowls with??

the answer is... not many. the WR's he had put up good numbers because it was Brady throwing the ball to them.

the same can be said for Rodgers, Brees, Favre...

take a look at one Alvin Harper... dude was awesome on the cowboys across from Irvin with Aikman delivering the rock... he thought he was a #1 because of his numbers,..wanted #1 money... he left the boys, and aikman... went to a team with a crappy QB and did what??... nothing...squat...nada..
we have had Larry all these years and even he never got to the big game without what??..oh yeah, a hall of fame quarterback.

even a "really good" quarterback couldnt get the team past the NFCC game

screw top rated WR's... they are absolutely nothing without someone to deliver the ball, just a highlight reel to sell tickets and keep people watching espn
if they are legit BPA, sure, you draft them... but never, ever give up a franchise qb for a wr thats just ridiculous

I love me some Larry,...dude looked fantastic extending the careers of john skelton and max hall, and, and, and...what were there?? fifteen of them? eighteen?? I forget

 

[Zeno]

The point is that the QB is going to affect our future by removing our future draft picks - and if the team is bad, a future draft pick that could be a true generational talent.

Or it could be a draft pick in a weak draft and a dime a dozen player...you take your chance, it's called a gamble.

 

[Zeno]

"Which pick" matters because you have to ask yourself if you'd rather have a "great" QB and Brice Butler at WR2, or a "good" QB with an All-Pro WR or CB.

That's the combo we're missing out on if we trade away our first rounders in the future. QBs can't win the game on their own.

Can you guarantee it is a All Pro WR or CB? Nope. Anymore so than it can be guaranteed the QB is a franchise guy. You take your chances and I'd rather the team swing for the fences then settle for singles all the time.

 

[Solar7]

really.

how many "great" wr's has Brady won super bowls with??

the answer is... not many. the WR's he had put up good numbers because it was Brady throwing the ball to them.

the same can be said for Rodgers, Brees, Favre...

take a look at one Alvin Harper... dude was awesome on the cowboys across from Irvin with Aikman delivering the rock... he thought he was a #1 because of his numbers,..wanted #1 money... he left the boys, and aikman... went to a team with a crappy QB and did what??... nothing...squat...nada..
we have had Larry all these years and even he never got to the big game without what??..oh yeah, a hall of fame quarterback.

even a "really good" quarterback couldnt get the team past the NFCC game

screw top rated WR's... they are absolutely nothing without someone to deliver the ball, just a highlight reel to sell tickets and keep people watching espn
if they are legit BPA, sure, you draft them... but never, ever give up a franchise qb for a wr thats just ridiculous

I love me some Larry,...dude looked fantastic extending the careers of john skelton and max hall, and, and, and...what were there?? fifteen of them? eighteen?? I forget

Randy Moss was a great player that helped Brady have his best statistical seasons. Sure, they lost at the very end of a magical season, but they got there. Do you really think we're about to trade up for the greatest of all time QB though?

Rodgers, Brees, and Favre have one Super Bowl each. Rodgers threw to Nelson for much of his career, and Greg Jennings. Favre played with Sterling Sharpe, Donald Driver, Antonio Freeman. Brees had Marques Colston, Michael Thomas, and a cadre of other talented WRs.

Regardless, the players they have had are major contributors to their success. This team has no one that has ever caught 600 passing yards besides Larry, and will not have Larry for the important parts of a rookie QB's career.

The top of the draft is where you get truly special players. We can't give that up for a player at a position that has historically busted hard unless you have the first overall pick.

Or it could be a draft pick in a weak draft and a dime a dozen player...you take your chance, it's called a gamble.

A gamble that makes you really bad, and another team really great for a long time. You're so thirsty that you're about to drink saltwater.

Can you guarantee it is a All Pro WR or CB? Nope. Anymore so than it can be guaranteed the QB is a franchise guy. You take your chances and I'd rather the team swing for the fences then settle for singles all the time.

No, but you can guarantee that you have more than one shot at these players. Statistically, some of them are going to work out, whereas one QB isn't.

 

[Wellthatsjustfine]

Zero until a game and a half after Bradford gets hurt.

 

[GuernseyCard]

So you think Keim has screwed the team up that bad? Glad to hear you admit that his QB solutions were bad ones.

There's no telling how much, positively or negatively, a rookie QB will have on the record. If I'm guessing, I'd say it wouldn't make us any worse, as I share your sentiments that we'll suck. If they're the talent we hope we're getting, I'd say an extra five or six game boost would be normal (our current QB situation is abysmal), and the playoffs aren't outside the realm of possibility.

And if we get the next Peyton Manning, I don't give a rat's ass what the Giants do with our #3 overall pick.

And I guess you'd say getting the next RGIII is also worth the price ?

I say this as this is the price in draft picks you'd pay to get up to the top 3 or 4 pick in this draft.

 

[Snakester]

Very little unless he starts game one. Best case is that we actually trade up and get our guy this year for the future. This year could turn into anything from 2-14 to 14-2. It's all up to Sam Bradford. If he stays healthy and plays like he is capable anything can happen. If he goes down in the first month and Glennon starts the rest of the season I'm not very optimistic. If we draft say Baker Mayfield and he starts day one I would expect 8-8 record for his first year.

 

[Stout]

"Which pick" matters because you have to ask yourself if you'd rather have a "great" QB and Brice Butler at WR2, or a "good" QB with an All-Pro WR or CB.

That's the combo we're missing out on if we trade away our first rounders in the future. QBs can't win the game on their own.

The great QB every time, all the time, because you can always upgrade at other positions. Great QBs are insanely difficult to find.

Would you rather have 10 years of Peyton Manning or Carson Palmer? 10 years of Joe Montana or Trent Green? 10 years of Dan Marino or Jake Plummer? I'll take the first option 10 times out of 10.

 

[Solar7]

The great QB every time, all the time, because you can always upgrade at other positions. Great QBs are insanely difficult to find.

Would you rather have 10 years of Peyton Manning or Carson Palmer? 10 years of Joe Montana or Trent Green? 10 years of Dan Marino or Jake Plummer? I'll take the first option 10 times out of 10.

Legitimately, it all depends. If it's Dan Marino, well, he didn't win a Super Bowl, so it's not worth sitting there with the frustration and never winning it all. I don't want to watch Joe Montana throw to Brice Butler and JJ Nelson. I wouldn't want Peyton Manning throwing to Jason McAddley and Bryan Gilmore with Troy Hambrick at RB.

 

[GuernseyCard]

The great QB every time, all the time, because you can always upgrade at other positions. Great QBs are insanely difficult to find.

Would you rather have 10 years of Peyton Manning or Carson Palmer? 10 years of Joe Montana or Trent Green? 10 years of Dan Marino or Jake Plummer? I'll take the first option 10 times out of 10.

And all you need to get your wish is the first pick in right year.

 

[Stout]

Legitimately, it all depends. If it's Dan Marino, well, he didn't win a Super Bowl, so it's not worth sitting there with the frustration and never winning it all. I don't want to watch Joe Montana throw to Brice Butler and JJ Nelson. I wouldn't want Peyton Manning throwing to Jason McAddley and Bryan Gilmore with Troy Hambrick at RB.

You don't have to throw to Brice Butler and JJ Nelso your whole career.

 

[Solar7]

You don't have to throw to Brice Butler and JJ Nelso your whole career.

But if you don't have any picks to get more players, you're going to be stuck throwing to them or Sammy Watkins for 3 years, $48 million or something. It doesn't even have to be a WR for the argument though - it's like the Texans who could be drafting Saquon Barkley three nights from now instead of sitting on the sidelines hoping Watson's knee will hold up for the next ten years of his career.

 

[Buckybird]

"Which pick" matters because you have to ask yourself if you'd rather have a "great" QB and Brice Butler at WR2, or a "good" QB with an All-Pro WR or CB.

That's the combo we're missing out on if we trade away our first rounders in the future. QBs can't win the game on their own.

Come on man!

A great QB trumps EVERYTHING! No ifs ands or buts!!!

 

[Proximo]

Quite frankly, who cares about this year.

We are a low talent team with a new coaching staff in a very strong division.

There is almost zero chance this team could make the playoffs. I just want to see reasons to give me hope for next year.

 

[Solar7]

Come on man!

A great QB trumps EVERYTHING! No ifs ands or buts!!!

Right, but a mediocre QB and wasting all of your ammunition makes sure you're not going to compete for a very long time.

Quite frankly, who cares about this year.

We are a low talent team with a new coaching staff in a very strong division.

There is almost zero chance this team could make the playoffs. I just want to see reasons to give me hope for next year.

As I've been saying, this draft will inform the future. Let me know how hopeful you are if we give up all of our picks, our rookie QB looks awful, and since we're contending for the worst team in the division, we give up high draft picks to be stuck with no hope for a very long time.