scoutmasterdave
Board Certified Suns Fan
I think this is pretty darn fair. I do think Carmelo should go, but at the expense of whom?
http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/insider/columns/story?columnist=hollinger_john&id=2295100
Who deserves a spot in the All-Star Game?
http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/insider/columns/story?columnist=hollinger_john&id=2295100
By John Hollinger, ESPN Insider
Editor's note: All-Star balloting ends on Sunday, Jan. 22.
Can a player on a terrible team still be an All-Star?
With this year's soiree in Houston less than a month away, that question looms larger than ever this season. Several players whose teams are hovering near the bottom of the standings have performed so well that they're worthy of consideration.
Players such as Washington's Gilbert Arenas, New Orleans/Oklahoma City's Chris Paul, Boston's Paul Pierce and Seattle's Ray Allen and Rashard Lewis, for instance, all have played at a high level for teams that are well south of the break-even mark. Additionally, at least two players -- Houston's Tracy McGrady and Yao Ming -- seem to be en route to All-Star bids via fan voting, despite their team's suffering through a miserable 12-24 season.
But perhaps no player best exemplifies this year's All-Star quandary better than Toronto's Chris Bosh.
That the Raptors are a bad team is beyond question -- Toronto's 13-24 mark leaves it out of the playoff chase even in the lowly East. But it's hard to pin the blame for that on Bosh, who has been nothing short of superb. The forward averages 22.4 points, 9.2 rebounds and is shooting over 50 percent from the field -- making him, along with LeBron James, the only Eastern Conference players averaging better than 20 points and shooting over 50 percent.
"I think he's deserving," said Raptors coach Sam Mitchell. "He's obviously one of the best power forwards in the NBA. Our record could be a lot worse if we didn't have Chris playing the way he's playing."
Unfortunately, the coaches (who select the reserves for the game) haven't been nearly as kind in their judgment of players from losing teams. In recent years, several players from teams with sub-.500 marks have lost out to players from teams with winning records. Secondary players on top contenders are particularly popular. Look back at almost every shaky All-Star pick from the past few years -- Dale Davis, Otis Thorpe, Wally Szczerbiak, Jamaal Magloire -- and you'll see that common thread.
"Winning always helps, but this is my situation," Bosh said. "I can't really help how things are. To me, it's all about the future, so I think what I do from here on out will dictate [being selected]."
We can't look in our crystal ball and tell whether Bosh will be selected despite his team's record. What we can do, however, is take a look at the landscape in each conference and determine, as of today, which players deserve selection. And that's exactly what I intend to do below.
Before we start, let's go over the process. The fans select five starters from each conference, so we're stuck with those picks no matter how much we might disagree with them. After the fans choose the first five, it's up to the coaches. The 15 coaches in each conference select seven reserves by secret ballot. The rules are that coaches must select at least two guards, two forwards and one center, in addition to two extra players to fill out the roster. However, they aren't limited by positions listed on the All-Star ballot -- a coach can nominate a player at any position he feels appropriate. Thus, a coach could list Tim Duncan or Pau Gasol as a center on his ballot if, in his judgment, that produced the best team for his conference.
With those rules in mind, let's take a look at how it will shake out in each league. Along with each player, I've included his per-game averages and Player Efficiency Rating (PER) this season (all stats through Monday):
EASTERN CONFERENCE: STARTERS
Although the voting isn't complete, it's pretty apparent who the five will be on each side, so we can fill in the starting lineups and go from there:
Allen Iverson, G (33.2 ppg, 7.5 apg, 26.95 PER): Can't argue with the fans' choice on this one.
Dwyane Wade, G (26.6 ppg, 7.1 apg, 27.84 PER): Or this one.
LeBron James, F (31.1 ppg, 6.0 apg, 29.23 PER): Or this one. Let's move on to the juicy stuff.
Jermaine O'Neal, F (21.4 ppg, 9.7 rpg, 22.07 PER): OK, here's one I suppose you could quibble with. O'Neal is a tough defender and a reliable post scorer, but he's not having his best season by any stretch. Still, I can't think of another forward in the East except the guy above that the Pacers would trade him for.
Shaquille O'Neal, C (18.2 ppg, 9.5 rpg, 22.30 PER): Shaq has earned the benefit of the doubt based on his past results, but he's done little to deserve nomination this season. He missed 18 games to start the year and has been sluggish since coming back. Of course, a down year for Shaq is a good year for anyone else -- he nearly has the highest PER among Eastern centers.
EASTERN CONFERENCE: RESERVES
Chauncey Billups, G (19.0 ppg, 8.6 apg, 24.29 PER): We have to take two reserve guards for the team, and the first choice is a no-brainer. Billups has been the best player on the league's best team and remains on the tips of everyone's tongues in terms of MVP consideration. His selection means that Byron Scott and Mike Bibby once again have the honor of being the best players ever to not be selected.
Gilbert Arenas, G (28.6 ppg, 6.3 apg, 23.77 PER): Arenas has his detractors because he isn't a pure point guard and can get very shot-happy. But his skill as a scorer is undeniable, and it's hard to imagine how bad the Wizards would be right now without him.
Paul Pierce, F (26.1 ppg, 7.5 rpg, 24.56 PER): As with Arenas, Pierce's team isn't exactly setting the world on fire. But, in a conference with only six winning teams, we have to take a few players from losing teams. And it's hard to deny Pierce's credentials -- one could argue that this has been his best season, and unlike a lot of stars he plays both ends of the floor.
Vince Carter, F (25.1 ppg, 5.8 rpg, 23.72 PER): For the first time in ages Carter wasn't voted in, and one could argue against his selection as karmic retribution for the many times he was undeservedly chosen by the fans. But in terms of basketball, there's no question that he should be our fourth forward. As the best player on the Atlantic Division's best team, his omission would be unprecedented.
Ben Wallace, C (8.4 ppg, 12.7 rpg, 18.78 PER): The backup center spot in the East is an interesting one. A case can be made for Bosh here, since he plays the middle so much for Toronto, but he's also frequently overmatched physically in the middle. The other strong contender here is Cleveland's Zydrunas Ilgauskas (16.2 ppg, 7.5 rpg, 22.45 PER). Z crushes Big Ben on PER, but he's a defensive liability, while Wallace is the league's reigning Defensive Player of the Year. The tiebreaker here is court time -- it's tough to pull the trigger for Ilgauskas when he's playing barely 30 minutes per game.
Chris Bosh, F (22.4 ppg, 9.2 rpg, 23.55 PER): We have two wild-card spots left in the East, so let's take a look at the remaining candidates. There's Bosh, Jason Kidd, Richard Hamilton, Michael Redd and Ilgauskas. Of the group, Bosh has the best PER, the second-best scoring average, the best rebound average and the best field-goal percentage, which makes it an open-and-shut case -- no matter how bad the Raptors are.
Jason Kidd, G (14.7 ppg, 7.9 apg, 20.31 PER): The final spot in the East is where we have a real problem. Because the Pistons are 30-5, many will argue that they deserve at least three players on the squad. That argument has never held water for me. The supposed logic is that there's no way a team can be that good without at least three of the conference's top 12 players, but that's absurd. If Hamilton is only the 13th-best player in the conference, that means he's still better than all but 10 players on the conference's other 14 teams. A team could easily be 30-5 under those conditions -- especially if, as in Detroit's case, two other starters are also among the top 20 to 25 players in the East.
Having dismissed that argument, it comes down to Hamilton (21.5 ppg, 3.1 apg, 19.23 PER) against Kidd, Ilgauskas and Redd (24.7 ppg, 4.5 rpg, 20.44 PER). Ilgauskas trumps them all in PER, but again I have trouble giving him the nod with only 1,026 minutes on the season. The next-best PER belongs to Redd, but he's a poor defender and not ahead of Kidd by much. That leaves us with Kidd. Not only does he outrate Hamilton on PER, but he's undeniably the stronger defender and the more commanding leader.
Best of the rest: Hamilton, Ilgauskas, Redd, Rasheed Wallace, Gerald Wallace.
WESTERN CONFERENCE: STARTERS
Steve Nash, G (19.1 ppg, 11.3 apg, 21.85 PER): A clear choice in a weak crop, the reigning MVP leads the league in assists once again and has the Suns surprisingly positioned atop the Pacific Division.
Kobe Bryant, G (34.3 ppg, 4.4 apg, 27.36 PER): A no-brainer. Next.
Tracy McGrady, F (25.3 ppg, 6.8 rpg, 24.02 PER): It's easy to get up in arms about this pick until you remember the Rockets are 0-12 when T-Mac doesn't play and 12-12 when he does. He's been hurt, but he clearly belongs.
Tim Duncan, F (20.3 ppg, 11.7 rpg, 25.19 PER): Another selection that requires no explanation.
Yao Ming, C (19.9 ppg, 9.0 rpg, 22.31 PER): A questionable pick until you look at the other names on the ballot -- all the other top big men in the West are either perennially injured (Marcus Camby), defensively lacking (Brad Miller) or drawing comparisons to Elvis (Mehmet Okur). Thus, it's Yao by default.
WESTERN CONFERENCE: RESERVES
Tony Parker, G (19.4 ppg, 5.9 apg, 21.43 PER): Parker has stepped up his play this season and now stands out in a weak group. With some of the West's top point guards having off years (Baron Davis and Mike Bibby, for instance), Parker is an easy selection.
Chris Paul, G (16.1 ppg, 7.2 apg, 21.81 PER): This pick might surprise a few people, but if we have to select two reserve guards, Paul is the clear choice as the second. The only other guards who are close in terms of performance are Ray Allen (24.1 ppg, 3.6 apg, 21.83 PER), Baron Davis (18.1 ppg, 9.3 apg, 18.28 PER), Mike Bibby (19.9 ppg, 5.4 apg, 17.84 PER) and Jason Terry (17.0 ppg, 3.8 apg, 18.72 PER). Allen is slightly ahead in PER but is a terrible defender on one of the worst defensive teams in history. Davis isn't close in PER and is earning scorn for his brutal shot selection. Bibby and Terry are solid players but haven't been in Paul's league at either end of the floor. The only other remotely plausible pick here is Manu Ginobili (15.7 ppg, 3.0 apg, 24.27 PER), and he's been out of the lineup for most of the season.
Kevin Garnett, C (22.2 ppg, 11.3 rpg, 27.63 PER): Arguably the best player in the game over the past three seasons, Garnett is an obvious choice. But note that I've chosen him as a center. Basically, there isn't a deserving center from the West, so we have to move one of the conference's many dominant power forwards to the middle. With Camby injured, we'd otherwise be stuck with somebody like Okur as an "All-Star" center.
Dirk Nowitzki, F, (26.1 ppg, 8.6 rpg, 27.64 PER): Obviously deserving. Let's move on.
Elton Brand, F (25.2 ppg, 10.8 rpg, 27.84 PER): If you haven't been following the Clippers, Brand has put together what is by far the best season of his career. While the Western coaches seem to take a peculiar delight in shafting him come All-Star time, doing so this year would be an absolute travesty.
Shawn Marion, F (20.9 ppg, 12.0 rpg, 21.86 PER): OK, we have two wild-card spots left on the team, so let's review the candidates. We have Marion, Carmelo Anthony, Pau Gasol, Andrei Kirilenko, Manu Ginobili, Marcus Camby, Ray Allen and Rashard Lewis. Let's delete a few right away: Allen and Lewis don't play any D, while Ginobili and Camby have missed major time due to injuries. That leave Marion, Gasol, 'Melo (25.7 ppg, 5.6 rpg, 21.33 PER) and Kirilenko (15.0 ppg, 3.1 bpg, 20.56 PER). Of those four, Marion has the second-best PER, has stayed in the lineup all season and has been one of the key defenders on the league's second-best defensive team. He gets the nod.
Pau Gasol, F, (19.9 ppg, 9.4 rpg, 22.49 PER): It's amazing how much better a guy can look when the coaches finally play him more than 32 minutes a game. Now that the Grizzlies realize that the guy who is perhaps their best player should be on the court longer, Gasol is putting up the per-game averages that can get him noticed at All-Star time. He outranks Anthony and Kirilenko in PER and, though not exactly Defensive Player of the Year material, has played much tougher D than in past years for one of the West's top teams.
Best of the rest: Kirilenko, Anthony, Davis, Camby, Ginobili.
http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/insider/columns/story?columnist=hollinger_john&id=2295100
Who deserves a spot in the All-Star Game?
http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/insider/columns/story?columnist=hollinger_john&id=2295100
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By John Hollinger, ESPN Insider
Editor's note: All-Star balloting ends on Sunday, Jan. 22.
Can a player on a terrible team still be an All-Star?
With this year's soiree in Houston less than a month away, that question looms larger than ever this season. Several players whose teams are hovering near the bottom of the standings have performed so well that they're worthy of consideration.
Players such as Washington's Gilbert Arenas, New Orleans/Oklahoma City's Chris Paul, Boston's Paul Pierce and Seattle's Ray Allen and Rashard Lewis, for instance, all have played at a high level for teams that are well south of the break-even mark. Additionally, at least two players -- Houston's Tracy McGrady and Yao Ming -- seem to be en route to All-Star bids via fan voting, despite their team's suffering through a miserable 12-24 season.
But perhaps no player best exemplifies this year's All-Star quandary better than Toronto's Chris Bosh.
That the Raptors are a bad team is beyond question -- Toronto's 13-24 mark leaves it out of the playoff chase even in the lowly East. But it's hard to pin the blame for that on Bosh, who has been nothing short of superb. The forward averages 22.4 points, 9.2 rebounds and is shooting over 50 percent from the field -- making him, along with LeBron James, the only Eastern Conference players averaging better than 20 points and shooting over 50 percent.
"I think he's deserving," said Raptors coach Sam Mitchell. "He's obviously one of the best power forwards in the NBA. Our record could be a lot worse if we didn't have Chris playing the way he's playing."
Unfortunately, the coaches (who select the reserves for the game) haven't been nearly as kind in their judgment of players from losing teams. In recent years, several players from teams with sub-.500 marks have lost out to players from teams with winning records. Secondary players on top contenders are particularly popular. Look back at almost every shaky All-Star pick from the past few years -- Dale Davis, Otis Thorpe, Wally Szczerbiak, Jamaal Magloire -- and you'll see that common thread.
"Winning always helps, but this is my situation," Bosh said. "I can't really help how things are. To me, it's all about the future, so I think what I do from here on out will dictate [being selected]."
We can't look in our crystal ball and tell whether Bosh will be selected despite his team's record. What we can do, however, is take a look at the landscape in each conference and determine, as of today, which players deserve selection. And that's exactly what I intend to do below.
Before we start, let's go over the process. The fans select five starters from each conference, so we're stuck with those picks no matter how much we might disagree with them. After the fans choose the first five, it's up to the coaches. The 15 coaches in each conference select seven reserves by secret ballot. The rules are that coaches must select at least two guards, two forwards and one center, in addition to two extra players to fill out the roster. However, they aren't limited by positions listed on the All-Star ballot -- a coach can nominate a player at any position he feels appropriate. Thus, a coach could list Tim Duncan or Pau Gasol as a center on his ballot if, in his judgment, that produced the best team for his conference.
With those rules in mind, let's take a look at how it will shake out in each league. Along with each player, I've included his per-game averages and Player Efficiency Rating (PER) this season (all stats through Monday):
EASTERN CONFERENCE: STARTERS
Although the voting isn't complete, it's pretty apparent who the five will be on each side, so we can fill in the starting lineups and go from there:
Allen Iverson, G (33.2 ppg, 7.5 apg, 26.95 PER): Can't argue with the fans' choice on this one.
Dwyane Wade, G (26.6 ppg, 7.1 apg, 27.84 PER): Or this one.
LeBron James, F (31.1 ppg, 6.0 apg, 29.23 PER): Or this one. Let's move on to the juicy stuff.
Jermaine O'Neal, F (21.4 ppg, 9.7 rpg, 22.07 PER): OK, here's one I suppose you could quibble with. O'Neal is a tough defender and a reliable post scorer, but he's not having his best season by any stretch. Still, I can't think of another forward in the East except the guy above that the Pacers would trade him for.
Shaquille O'Neal, C (18.2 ppg, 9.5 rpg, 22.30 PER): Shaq has earned the benefit of the doubt based on his past results, but he's done little to deserve nomination this season. He missed 18 games to start the year and has been sluggish since coming back. Of course, a down year for Shaq is a good year for anyone else -- he nearly has the highest PER among Eastern centers.
EASTERN CONFERENCE: RESERVES
Chauncey Billups, G (19.0 ppg, 8.6 apg, 24.29 PER): We have to take two reserve guards for the team, and the first choice is a no-brainer. Billups has been the best player on the league's best team and remains on the tips of everyone's tongues in terms of MVP consideration. His selection means that Byron Scott and Mike Bibby once again have the honor of being the best players ever to not be selected.
Gilbert Arenas, G (28.6 ppg, 6.3 apg, 23.77 PER): Arenas has his detractors because he isn't a pure point guard and can get very shot-happy. But his skill as a scorer is undeniable, and it's hard to imagine how bad the Wizards would be right now without him.
Paul Pierce, F (26.1 ppg, 7.5 rpg, 24.56 PER): As with Arenas, Pierce's team isn't exactly setting the world on fire. But, in a conference with only six winning teams, we have to take a few players from losing teams. And it's hard to deny Pierce's credentials -- one could argue that this has been his best season, and unlike a lot of stars he plays both ends of the floor.
Vince Carter, F (25.1 ppg, 5.8 rpg, 23.72 PER): For the first time in ages Carter wasn't voted in, and one could argue against his selection as karmic retribution for the many times he was undeservedly chosen by the fans. But in terms of basketball, there's no question that he should be our fourth forward. As the best player on the Atlantic Division's best team, his omission would be unprecedented.
Ben Wallace, C (8.4 ppg, 12.7 rpg, 18.78 PER): The backup center spot in the East is an interesting one. A case can be made for Bosh here, since he plays the middle so much for Toronto, but he's also frequently overmatched physically in the middle. The other strong contender here is Cleveland's Zydrunas Ilgauskas (16.2 ppg, 7.5 rpg, 22.45 PER). Z crushes Big Ben on PER, but he's a defensive liability, while Wallace is the league's reigning Defensive Player of the Year. The tiebreaker here is court time -- it's tough to pull the trigger for Ilgauskas when he's playing barely 30 minutes per game.
Chris Bosh, F (22.4 ppg, 9.2 rpg, 23.55 PER): We have two wild-card spots left in the East, so let's take a look at the remaining candidates. There's Bosh, Jason Kidd, Richard Hamilton, Michael Redd and Ilgauskas. Of the group, Bosh has the best PER, the second-best scoring average, the best rebound average and the best field-goal percentage, which makes it an open-and-shut case -- no matter how bad the Raptors are.
Jason Kidd, G (14.7 ppg, 7.9 apg, 20.31 PER): The final spot in the East is where we have a real problem. Because the Pistons are 30-5, many will argue that they deserve at least three players on the squad. That argument has never held water for me. The supposed logic is that there's no way a team can be that good without at least three of the conference's top 12 players, but that's absurd. If Hamilton is only the 13th-best player in the conference, that means he's still better than all but 10 players on the conference's other 14 teams. A team could easily be 30-5 under those conditions -- especially if, as in Detroit's case, two other starters are also among the top 20 to 25 players in the East.
Having dismissed that argument, it comes down to Hamilton (21.5 ppg, 3.1 apg, 19.23 PER) against Kidd, Ilgauskas and Redd (24.7 ppg, 4.5 rpg, 20.44 PER). Ilgauskas trumps them all in PER, but again I have trouble giving him the nod with only 1,026 minutes on the season. The next-best PER belongs to Redd, but he's a poor defender and not ahead of Kidd by much. That leaves us with Kidd. Not only does he outrate Hamilton on PER, but he's undeniably the stronger defender and the more commanding leader.
Best of the rest: Hamilton, Ilgauskas, Redd, Rasheed Wallace, Gerald Wallace.
WESTERN CONFERENCE: STARTERS
Steve Nash, G (19.1 ppg, 11.3 apg, 21.85 PER): A clear choice in a weak crop, the reigning MVP leads the league in assists once again and has the Suns surprisingly positioned atop the Pacific Division.
Kobe Bryant, G (34.3 ppg, 4.4 apg, 27.36 PER): A no-brainer. Next.
Tracy McGrady, F (25.3 ppg, 6.8 rpg, 24.02 PER): It's easy to get up in arms about this pick until you remember the Rockets are 0-12 when T-Mac doesn't play and 12-12 when he does. He's been hurt, but he clearly belongs.
Tim Duncan, F (20.3 ppg, 11.7 rpg, 25.19 PER): Another selection that requires no explanation.
Yao Ming, C (19.9 ppg, 9.0 rpg, 22.31 PER): A questionable pick until you look at the other names on the ballot -- all the other top big men in the West are either perennially injured (Marcus Camby), defensively lacking (Brad Miller) or drawing comparisons to Elvis (Mehmet Okur). Thus, it's Yao by default.
WESTERN CONFERENCE: RESERVES
Tony Parker, G (19.4 ppg, 5.9 apg, 21.43 PER): Parker has stepped up his play this season and now stands out in a weak group. With some of the West's top point guards having off years (Baron Davis and Mike Bibby, for instance), Parker is an easy selection.
Chris Paul, G (16.1 ppg, 7.2 apg, 21.81 PER): This pick might surprise a few people, but if we have to select two reserve guards, Paul is the clear choice as the second. The only other guards who are close in terms of performance are Ray Allen (24.1 ppg, 3.6 apg, 21.83 PER), Baron Davis (18.1 ppg, 9.3 apg, 18.28 PER), Mike Bibby (19.9 ppg, 5.4 apg, 17.84 PER) and Jason Terry (17.0 ppg, 3.8 apg, 18.72 PER). Allen is slightly ahead in PER but is a terrible defender on one of the worst defensive teams in history. Davis isn't close in PER and is earning scorn for his brutal shot selection. Bibby and Terry are solid players but haven't been in Paul's league at either end of the floor. The only other remotely plausible pick here is Manu Ginobili (15.7 ppg, 3.0 apg, 24.27 PER), and he's been out of the lineup for most of the season.
Kevin Garnett, C (22.2 ppg, 11.3 rpg, 27.63 PER): Arguably the best player in the game over the past three seasons, Garnett is an obvious choice. But note that I've chosen him as a center. Basically, there isn't a deserving center from the West, so we have to move one of the conference's many dominant power forwards to the middle. With Camby injured, we'd otherwise be stuck with somebody like Okur as an "All-Star" center.
Dirk Nowitzki, F, (26.1 ppg, 8.6 rpg, 27.64 PER): Obviously deserving. Let's move on.
Elton Brand, F (25.2 ppg, 10.8 rpg, 27.84 PER): If you haven't been following the Clippers, Brand has put together what is by far the best season of his career. While the Western coaches seem to take a peculiar delight in shafting him come All-Star time, doing so this year would be an absolute travesty.
Shawn Marion, F (20.9 ppg, 12.0 rpg, 21.86 PER): OK, we have two wild-card spots left on the team, so let's review the candidates. We have Marion, Carmelo Anthony, Pau Gasol, Andrei Kirilenko, Manu Ginobili, Marcus Camby, Ray Allen and Rashard Lewis. Let's delete a few right away: Allen and Lewis don't play any D, while Ginobili and Camby have missed major time due to injuries. That leave Marion, Gasol, 'Melo (25.7 ppg, 5.6 rpg, 21.33 PER) and Kirilenko (15.0 ppg, 3.1 bpg, 20.56 PER). Of those four, Marion has the second-best PER, has stayed in the lineup all season and has been one of the key defenders on the league's second-best defensive team. He gets the nod.
Pau Gasol, F, (19.9 ppg, 9.4 rpg, 22.49 PER): It's amazing how much better a guy can look when the coaches finally play him more than 32 minutes a game. Now that the Grizzlies realize that the guy who is perhaps their best player should be on the court longer, Gasol is putting up the per-game averages that can get him noticed at All-Star time. He outranks Anthony and Kirilenko in PER and, though not exactly Defensive Player of the Year material, has played much tougher D than in past years for one of the West's top teams.
Best of the rest: Kirilenko, Anthony, Davis, Camby, Ginobili.
