The Commish
youknowhatimsayin?
One basketball nation, under Duncan
May. 14, 2007 |
If you want to win a championship, Tim Duncan remains the best player in the league to accomplish that particular goal. We covered most of the reasons in last week's magazine column, but three points couldn't be mentioned because of the 1200-word limit:
Point No. 1
You might remember my annual "Who has the highest NBA trade value?" gimmick, a column I've been writing once a year since I had my old Web site. (Note: If you want to re-read those columns out, check out my Complete Subject Archive and scroll down to the NBA section for every "Trade Value" link from 2001 to 2006.) Here were Duncan's finishes in that column: No. 2 (2000), No. 2 (2001), No. 3 (2002), No. 1 (2003), No. 2 (2004), No. 1 (2005), No. 3 (2006). For his entire prime, Duncan has been one of the top-three most untradeable players in the league.
You know why? Because he gives you a fantastic chance to win the championship every year, that's why. Maybe Karl Malone was better in '97 and '98, maybe Shaq exceeded him in '00 and '01, maybe KG matched him in '04 and Nowitzki matched him in '06 ... but overall, Duncan always seems to keep his teams in the hunt.
Here are San Antonio's numbers during his 10-year career: 559-239 during the regular season, 82-49 in the playoffs, three championships. Since the ABA/NBA merger, only four stars have been that consistently successful for a 10-year span: Bird, Magic, MJ and Shaq ... although I hesitate to put Shaq on that level because he's had six different teams get swept over the course of his career. But that's the list. Superstars like Kareem (nine playoff wins TOTAL in the four seasons before Magic arrived), David Robinson (never made a Finals before Duncan arrived), Hakeem Olajuwon (wildly unsuccessful for most of his prime), Patrick Ewing (only played in one Finals in his prime), Charles Barkley (ditto) and Karl Malone (only played in four conference finals, never won a title) couldn't match Duncan's winning consistency over a 10-year period.
Point No. 2
In the deadly slow-it-down, grind-it-out, defense-beats-offense era (1999-2004), Duncan won two titles. During the transition period as everyone adjusted to the new rules (2005-06, when the NBA called hand-checking and allowed moving picks), he won a third title. And now that we're firmly entrenched in the drive-and-dish/offense-beats-defense/smallball era, he's more valuable than ever because he's one of the few big guys who's polished enough to punish players in the low post AND talented enough to guard quicker players on the other end. He's simply demolishing the Suns right now, averaging 33 points and 17.5 rebounds in San Antonio's two wins. Phoenix doesn't have an answer for him. Within the next three to seven days, they're going home for the summer because of Tim Duncan.
Point No. 3
I'm breaking out Hubie Brown's second-person routine for the third and biggest point. OK, you're Phoenix. Heading into this summer, you have the best roster situation in the league. You have a superstar (Nash), two All-Stars (Stoudemire and Marion), an emerging star (Barbosa), two valuable role players with fair contracts (Diaw and Bell), a fantastic coach (D'Antoni) and a realistic chance to have three No. 1 picks in a loaded 2007 draft, including a lottery pick if Atlanta doesn't land in the top-3. You also have some urgency here because of Steve Nash's age (33) and back troubles, so you need to parlay your assets into two or three more players who can push you to another level. You also know that, until you figure out a way to neutralize Tim Duncan, you will always be entering the playoffs hoping and praying that ...
A) Someone else knocks off the Spurs before you play them,
B) Duncan blows out his knee or suffers a catastrophic household accident, or
C) Duncan's eyeballs actually fly out of his head while he's reacting to a bad call.
(End of the second-person routine.)
So here's my solution: If Phoenix gets bounced this week, don't they HAVE to trade Amare Stoudemire for KG?
Right now, Stoudemire is a base-year compensation player because he's finishing the first year of his contract extension (five years, $73 million). The deal I'm proposing can't work under the cap until mid-July, when Stoudemire's cap figure morphs into the value of his current contract ($13.2 million for next season) and makes him infinitely more easy to trade (for details, check out Larry Coon's NBA Salary Cap FAQ). But they could still agree on a pre-draft trade that wouldn't become official until a few weeks later.
Assuming Atlanta's pick doesn't land in the top-3, here's my proposal: Stoudemire, Atlanta's pick (depending on how the lottery shakes out, it would be as high as fourth or as low as sixth) and Marcus Banks (for cap purposes) to Minnesota for Garnett and Minnesota's pick (as high as seventh, as low as ninth).
Here's why both teams should do it:
Minnesota: That's practically 100 cents on the dollar for KG. They're getting a 1st-team All-NBA big man who's younger than KG, plus they're jumping into the top five of the draft with a chance to add another blue-chip forward (either Brandan Wright or Al Horford). Examine the T-Wolves roster and you'll notice that they don't need a 4-for-1 deal for KG; they're looking at an immediate future in which the Clippers and Celtics own two of their future first-rounders within the next five years, so it wouldn't make sense for them to bottom out with picks and young players. Stoudemire is the best and most sensible option for them. Period.
Phoenix: KG solves four problems for the Suns. First, they don't have to worry about the debilitating Marion/Stoudemire alpha dog battle anymore. Second, they don't have to worry about Stoudemire's surgically reconstructed knee anymore. Third, between KG, Nash and Bell, the Suns would have more than enough toughness/intensity/competitiveness to compete every spring (a real issue for them, even this season -- they're just not nasty enough). And fourth, they'd finally have someone who could potentially play Duncan to a draw (or as close as possible). Stoudemire just isn't a good defensive player -- he's prone to foul trouble and gets discouraged easily (as we witnessed while he pouted on the bench in Game 3). As for the age difference between KG and Stoudemire ... do you realize that Amare is only six years younger than KG? Crazy but true. And slipping two to four spots in the draft wouldn't hurt the Suns because they could still take Joakim Noah, an athletic big man who's perfect for them (and could play right away).
Now ...
Let's say the Suns make this deal, package their other two No. 1 picks (No. 24 and No. 29) to move into the mid-teens for Acie Law IV (the most NBA-ready point guard in the draft), then spend their free agent exemption on an athletic swingman like Matt Barnes. Maybe they'd be paying the luxury tax, but screw it -- how many times can you put together a potential 70-win team that's a prohibitive title favorite and the top TV draw in the league?
Check out this nine-man nucleus: KG, Marion, Bell, Barbosa and Nash as the starters, with Noah, Diaw, Law and Barnes coming off the bench. They'd be covered for every conceivable situation (smallball, grind-it-out ball, run-and-gun, you name it) and they'd be led by two desperate superstars (KG and Nash) who'd basically be ready to give 10 years of their lives to win one title.
Would you bet against that team in the 2008 playoffs? Me neither.
One other fun thing about this trade: On paper, it's the biggest NBA deal ever. We've seen superstars traded for multiple players and/or picks (Kareem and Wilt); we've seen superstars given away for 50 cents on the dollar (Shaq, Moses, Maravich and Barkley); we've seen superstars sold for cash (Doctor J); we've seen gigantic deals featuring multiple stars (like the Brandon-Kemp-Baker deal, or the one that sent J-Kidd to Phoenix); one-for-one swaps featuring All-Stars (DJ-Westphal and Marbury-Kidd); and we've seen major deals that became bigger as the years passed (Joe Barry Carroll and Larry Brown for Robert Parish and Kevin McHale). But can you think of another trade featuring as much star power? One of the best forwards of all time getting traded at the tail end of his prime for a first-team All-NBA player? No offense to Billy Paultz, but that's a whopper.
Anyway, watch how the Spurs attack Phoenix tonight with Duncan and tell me that KG wouldn't have helped. Not only should the Suns make a play for him this summer, they have to make a play for him this summer. If only for Nash's sake.
(And if they don't? Get ready to read more boring "Tim Duncan is the best" columns for the rest of the decade.)
http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/blog/index?name=simmons
May. 14, 2007 |
If you want to win a championship, Tim Duncan remains the best player in the league to accomplish that particular goal. We covered most of the reasons in last week's magazine column, but three points couldn't be mentioned because of the 1200-word limit:
Point No. 1
You might remember my annual "Who has the highest NBA trade value?" gimmick, a column I've been writing once a year since I had my old Web site. (Note: If you want to re-read those columns out, check out my Complete Subject Archive and scroll down to the NBA section for every "Trade Value" link from 2001 to 2006.) Here were Duncan's finishes in that column: No. 2 (2000), No. 2 (2001), No. 3 (2002), No. 1 (2003), No. 2 (2004), No. 1 (2005), No. 3 (2006). For his entire prime, Duncan has been one of the top-three most untradeable players in the league.
You know why? Because he gives you a fantastic chance to win the championship every year, that's why. Maybe Karl Malone was better in '97 and '98, maybe Shaq exceeded him in '00 and '01, maybe KG matched him in '04 and Nowitzki matched him in '06 ... but overall, Duncan always seems to keep his teams in the hunt.
Here are San Antonio's numbers during his 10-year career: 559-239 during the regular season, 82-49 in the playoffs, three championships. Since the ABA/NBA merger, only four stars have been that consistently successful for a 10-year span: Bird, Magic, MJ and Shaq ... although I hesitate to put Shaq on that level because he's had six different teams get swept over the course of his career. But that's the list. Superstars like Kareem (nine playoff wins TOTAL in the four seasons before Magic arrived), David Robinson (never made a Finals before Duncan arrived), Hakeem Olajuwon (wildly unsuccessful for most of his prime), Patrick Ewing (only played in one Finals in his prime), Charles Barkley (ditto) and Karl Malone (only played in four conference finals, never won a title) couldn't match Duncan's winning consistency over a 10-year period.
Point No. 2
In the deadly slow-it-down, grind-it-out, defense-beats-offense era (1999-2004), Duncan won two titles. During the transition period as everyone adjusted to the new rules (2005-06, when the NBA called hand-checking and allowed moving picks), he won a third title. And now that we're firmly entrenched in the drive-and-dish/offense-beats-defense/smallball era, he's more valuable than ever because he's one of the few big guys who's polished enough to punish players in the low post AND talented enough to guard quicker players on the other end. He's simply demolishing the Suns right now, averaging 33 points and 17.5 rebounds in San Antonio's two wins. Phoenix doesn't have an answer for him. Within the next three to seven days, they're going home for the summer because of Tim Duncan.
Point No. 3
I'm breaking out Hubie Brown's second-person routine for the third and biggest point. OK, you're Phoenix. Heading into this summer, you have the best roster situation in the league. You have a superstar (Nash), two All-Stars (Stoudemire and Marion), an emerging star (Barbosa), two valuable role players with fair contracts (Diaw and Bell), a fantastic coach (D'Antoni) and a realistic chance to have three No. 1 picks in a loaded 2007 draft, including a lottery pick if Atlanta doesn't land in the top-3. You also have some urgency here because of Steve Nash's age (33) and back troubles, so you need to parlay your assets into two or three more players who can push you to another level. You also know that, until you figure out a way to neutralize Tim Duncan, you will always be entering the playoffs hoping and praying that ...
A) Someone else knocks off the Spurs before you play them,
B) Duncan blows out his knee or suffers a catastrophic household accident, or
C) Duncan's eyeballs actually fly out of his head while he's reacting to a bad call.
(End of the second-person routine.)
So here's my solution: If Phoenix gets bounced this week, don't they HAVE to trade Amare Stoudemire for KG?
Right now, Stoudemire is a base-year compensation player because he's finishing the first year of his contract extension (five years, $73 million). The deal I'm proposing can't work under the cap until mid-July, when Stoudemire's cap figure morphs into the value of his current contract ($13.2 million for next season) and makes him infinitely more easy to trade (for details, check out Larry Coon's NBA Salary Cap FAQ). But they could still agree on a pre-draft trade that wouldn't become official until a few weeks later.
Assuming Atlanta's pick doesn't land in the top-3, here's my proposal: Stoudemire, Atlanta's pick (depending on how the lottery shakes out, it would be as high as fourth or as low as sixth) and Marcus Banks (for cap purposes) to Minnesota for Garnett and Minnesota's pick (as high as seventh, as low as ninth).
Here's why both teams should do it:
Minnesota: That's practically 100 cents on the dollar for KG. They're getting a 1st-team All-NBA big man who's younger than KG, plus they're jumping into the top five of the draft with a chance to add another blue-chip forward (either Brandan Wright or Al Horford). Examine the T-Wolves roster and you'll notice that they don't need a 4-for-1 deal for KG; they're looking at an immediate future in which the Clippers and Celtics own two of their future first-rounders within the next five years, so it wouldn't make sense for them to bottom out with picks and young players. Stoudemire is the best and most sensible option for them. Period.
Phoenix: KG solves four problems for the Suns. First, they don't have to worry about the debilitating Marion/Stoudemire alpha dog battle anymore. Second, they don't have to worry about Stoudemire's surgically reconstructed knee anymore. Third, between KG, Nash and Bell, the Suns would have more than enough toughness/intensity/competitiveness to compete every spring (a real issue for them, even this season -- they're just not nasty enough). And fourth, they'd finally have someone who could potentially play Duncan to a draw (or as close as possible). Stoudemire just isn't a good defensive player -- he's prone to foul trouble and gets discouraged easily (as we witnessed while he pouted on the bench in Game 3). As for the age difference between KG and Stoudemire ... do you realize that Amare is only six years younger than KG? Crazy but true. And slipping two to four spots in the draft wouldn't hurt the Suns because they could still take Joakim Noah, an athletic big man who's perfect for them (and could play right away).
Now ...
Let's say the Suns make this deal, package their other two No. 1 picks (No. 24 and No. 29) to move into the mid-teens for Acie Law IV (the most NBA-ready point guard in the draft), then spend their free agent exemption on an athletic swingman like Matt Barnes. Maybe they'd be paying the luxury tax, but screw it -- how many times can you put together a potential 70-win team that's a prohibitive title favorite and the top TV draw in the league?
Check out this nine-man nucleus: KG, Marion, Bell, Barbosa and Nash as the starters, with Noah, Diaw, Law and Barnes coming off the bench. They'd be covered for every conceivable situation (smallball, grind-it-out ball, run-and-gun, you name it) and they'd be led by two desperate superstars (KG and Nash) who'd basically be ready to give 10 years of their lives to win one title.
Would you bet against that team in the 2008 playoffs? Me neither.
One other fun thing about this trade: On paper, it's the biggest NBA deal ever. We've seen superstars traded for multiple players and/or picks (Kareem and Wilt); we've seen superstars given away for 50 cents on the dollar (Shaq, Moses, Maravich and Barkley); we've seen superstars sold for cash (Doctor J); we've seen gigantic deals featuring multiple stars (like the Brandon-Kemp-Baker deal, or the one that sent J-Kidd to Phoenix); one-for-one swaps featuring All-Stars (DJ-Westphal and Marbury-Kidd); and we've seen major deals that became bigger as the years passed (Joe Barry Carroll and Larry Brown for Robert Parish and Kevin McHale). But can you think of another trade featuring as much star power? One of the best forwards of all time getting traded at the tail end of his prime for a first-team All-NBA player? No offense to Billy Paultz, but that's a whopper.
Anyway, watch how the Spurs attack Phoenix tonight with Duncan and tell me that KG wouldn't have helped. Not only should the Suns make a play for him this summer, they have to make a play for him this summer. If only for Nash's sake.
(And if they don't? Get ready to read more boring "Tim Duncan is the best" columns for the rest of the decade.)
http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/blog/index?name=simmons
