A Decent CB Option

[Harry]

As I’ve indicated I like to grab guys coming back from explainable circumstances. Last year is a throw out in my estimation or at least one taken for only minor influence. Casey Heyward has posted a number of reliable years and was recently released. He is at least a solid #2 CB and if he passes the physical he could be solid in a broader role. He might be willing to take one of those Keim “prove it” deals. If he’ll come in at a reduced priced he could be a major asset

 

[BritCard]

He'd be a superb addition. Not only in talent but in leadership.

 

[Solar7]

I'm not a fan, as he's 31 and will turn 32 midseason. If people are concerned Patrick Peterson is washed, I don't see how a guy even closer to the major cliff for CBs is the answer.

But, as you said, reduced price... If they're cheap, I'm willing to give just about anyone an opportunity.

 

[BritCard]

I'm not a fan, as he's 31 and will turn 32 midseason. If people are concerned Patrick Peterson is washed, I don't see how a guy even closer to the major cliff for CBs is the answer.

But, as you said, reduced price... If they're cheap, I'm willing to give just about anyone an opportunity.

There's no universal age limit. Some players stay at a high level until 35-36. Others burn out early (looking at you David Johnson).

 

[Solar7]

There's no universal age limit. Some players stay at a high level until 35-36. Others burn out early (looking at you David Johnson).

No, but there is a definitive statistical wall at 32, which is how old Heyward will be this year.

Data from 2008-2018:

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https://www.milehighreport.com/2019/5/12/18616348/age-wall-for-cornerbacks

 

[imaCafan]

Yeah, David Johnson vs. Frank Gore. Prime example.

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

No, but there is a definitive statistical wall at 32, which is how old Heyward will be this year.

Data from 2008-2018:

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https://www.milehighreport.com/2019/5/12/18616348/age-wall-for-cornerbacks

I think you’re reading what you want to see. Clearly the wall is at 29.

 

[Solar7]

I think you’re reading what you want to see. Clearly the wall is at 29.

Well, undoubtedly, but there's a second severe decline at 32, in terms of who plays 12+ games. You go from nearly 30 CBs (almost a CB per team) at 31, to under 15 by 32. And then it stays flat.

Really, the indictment is against all CBs over 30, which is fine for the sake of the argument. I'm just saying Heyward is old and not a great solution in my opinion. Harry's forgotten more football than I know, but it still makes me raise an eyebrow to be excited for any CB around these ages.

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

Well, undoubtedly, but there's a second severe decline at 32, in terms of who plays 12+ games. You go from nearly 30 CBs (almost a CB per team) at 31, to under 15 by 32. And then it stays flat.

Really, the indictment is against all CBs over 30, which is fine for the sake of the argument. I'm just saying Heyward is old and not a great solution in my opinion. Harry's forgotten more football than I know, but it still makes me raise an eyebrow to be excited for any CB around these ages.

I think at this juncture we are really all just talking stopgaps at the cb position. I think you can talk about age when discussing a position generally but it seems silly do so when talking about specific players. When comparing PP and Hayward they’re both older so the conversation should really focus on how they are actually playing and what their comp demand will come in at.

 

[BritCard]

No, but there is a definitive statistical wall at 32, which is how old Heyward will be this year.

Data from 2008-2018:

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https://www.milehighreport.com/2019/5/12/18616348/age-wall-for-cornerbacks

Yes. On average.

At best we can say the statistical likelyhood of decline is higher. But then you can say the same about P2 who you want to resign.

 

[BritCard]

I can't find PFF data from this season but let's look at the PFF grades for CBs through the regular season for the previous year.

1. Sherman - 31
3. Gilmore - 29
5. Hayward - 30
6. Tramon Williams - 36
9. Jason McCourty - 32

So you certainly can't say all CBs go downhill from 29

 

[az jam]

Hayward would be a good pickup at the right price. I also feel we should go CB in round 1. Finally, I don't see PP coming back as he will get more money elsewhere.

 

[Solar7]

Yes. On average.

At best we can say the statistical likelyhood of decline is higher. But then you can say the same about P2 who you want to resign.

I only want P2 back on a 1-2 year deal. I simply don't believe he's going to get much more than a Hayward, and I'd rather have someone who knows the system and the locker room than pay marginally less for an older model.

I can't find PFF data from this season but let's look at the PFF grades for CBs through the regular season for the previous year.

1. Sherman - 31
3. Gilmore - 29
5. Hayward - 30
6. Tramon Williams - 36
9. Jason McCourty - 32

So you certainly can't say all CBs go downhill from 29

Of course I'm not looking at "all." There's always going to be a few statistical anomalies in any data set. But these guys are nearing the end of their shelf life, and you have to proceed with caution.

For me, this discussion isn't Peterson vs. Hayward, it's more of "why be so against Peterson when an older guy is just fine with you?" Sure, if it really does break down that Hayward takes $7M less a year, we'll have something to talk about, but I don't see it happening. Teams don't have the space for Peterson to get a mega deal.

 

[overseascardfan]

I would rather ARZ go after Janoris Jenkins than Hayward.

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

I only want P2 back on a 1-2 year deal. I simply don't believe he's going to get much more than a Hayward, and I'd rather have someone who knows the system and the locker room than pay marginally less for an older model.



Of course I'm not looking at "all." There's always going to be a few statistical anomalies in any data set. But these guys are nearing the end of their shelf life, and you have to proceed with caution.

For me, this discussion isn't Peterson vs. Hayward, it's more of "why be so against Peterson when an older guy is just fine with you?" Sure, if it really does break down that Hayward takes $7M less a year, we'll have something to talk about, but I don't see it happening. Teams don't have the space for Peterson to get a mega deal.

In my opinion it’s more did Hayward play better than pp and will take less. If we are only signing for 1-2 years those, along with pp’s familiarity, are the only elements that I consider. Certainly not age.

 

[Solar7]

In my opinion it’s more did Hayward play better than pp and will take less. If we are only signing for 1-2 years those, along with pp’s familiarity, are the only elements that I consider. Certainly not age.

I think it's tough to argue he played better. Similar PFF grades, gave up similar yards but with two less games, same amount of TDs, less receptions, but still, that means 5 more yards per completion, and had 20 less tackles than P2...

It's lateral movement unless the savings are truly enormous.