Draft Positioning Week 16

[BullheadCardFan]

I was with you the whole way, but according to The Athletic's simulator, the Cardinals still have a <1% chance of getting the #1 pick.

I was going to list out all of the things that need to happen, but since strength of schedule is a primary factor, aside from the obvious (Cards need to lose while Giants & Raiders need to win) there are a huge number of combinations of results that could benefit or hurt the Cards' odds. Despite being under 1% at the moment, it doesn't take too many outcomes to go the Cards' way to get to over 99%.

An example: Raiders > Giants, Browns > Bengals, Giants > Cowboys, Jets > Bills, and Raiders > Chiefs gets the Cards to 71%, with only a few other results needed to get to >99%.

On the other hand, if the Giants beat the Raiders, a lot more games would have to go the Cards' way. That seems to be the single most important game for the Cards.

Colys > 49ers tonight helps in any scenario, but doesn't seem likely.

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[Adrian]

NFL Draft order: Cardinals would pick 6th, after Titans

The Cardinals jumped into the top 5 of the 2026 NFL Draft order after their loss and wins from the Titans and Patriots until the MNF game knocked them to No. 6 again.

arizonasports.com

 

[Adrian]

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[GatorAZ]

Back to 6th.

 

[Proteus]

If we do end up with pick #5 in the 1st round, how far could we trade down and still get one of the top right tackle prospects?

 

[HairZach]

If we do end up with pick #5 in the 1st round, how far could we trade down and still get one of the top right tackle prospects?

8? Bengals and Miami are at 9 & 10 and both are desperate for a decent tackle.

 

[TheCardFan]

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[Adrian]

NFL Draft order: Cardinals would pick 6th, after Titans

The Cardinals jumped into the top 5 of the 2026 NFL Draft order after their loss and wins from the Titans and Patriots until the MNF game knocked them to No. 6 again.

arizonasports.com

 

[Harry]

If we do end up with pick #5 in the 1st round, how far could we trade down and still get one of the top right tackle prospects?

The top guy might need to be 9, one of the top 2 (evaluators divided) maybe 12. You could still get a solid RT at tye beginning of round 2.

 

[TheCardFan]

What do we think about Rueben Bain?

 

[football karma]

What do we think about Rueben Bain?

high risk. productive, explosive but.....31" arms (supposedly)

and the league has seen far more players built like that fail than be successful

 

[oaken1]

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Tankathon | 2026 NFL Draft Order https://share.google/ju57wKQ8VmDXY8WZ3

Man, if back in September you had told Saints fans they would have the same record as the Bengals after Christmas they would have been so stoked

 

[cardpa]

That will flip by the end of the night depending on the Pats/Ravens game. Jets also finishing with Pats/Bills will affect their SOS. It’ll be interesting to see if Cleveland can win one of their last two vs PIT/CIN. Maybe Garrett goes crazy for the sack record…

I have a gut feeling the Browns are going to upset the Steelers. Those AFC North games are always a tossup no matter a team's record.

 

[oaken1]

If we do end up with pick #5 in the 1st round, how far could we trade down and still get one of the top right tackle prospects?

A "Top" RT is basically a LT with shorter arms and legs and slightly less athleticism.
If he is known in advance to be a RT...he needs to project as a multi pro bowl kinda guy to really be targeted in the first round...and that would probably start around 15 or so.
I mean, guys get drafted early to be a RT sometimes...but generally speaking the top 15 picks are reserved for bona fide left tackles...15 thru 30 for guys who played LT in college but have physical limitations that may cause them to fail at LT and have to be moved to RT...
For the most part...guys who are expected to be solid starters in year one or two at RT are picked in the second round.
We will be picking somewhere around 33 to 38 and that is a great spot to be in to draft a solid RT...even a "Top" RT prospect.

 

[Stout]

I have a gut feeling the Browns are going to upset the Steelers. Those AFC North games are always a tossup no matter a team's record.

They are without Metcalf (who lost 45 mill off that punch!), so it's possible. May it be so!

Let's have Bawlmer beat the Pack, the Brownies beat the Stillers, then the Ravens beat the Stillirs to fudge over the yinzer brigade

 

[BulldogCard]

It's who picks those picks. They stink, suck.

 

[Gandhi]

I have a gut feeling the Browns are going to upset the Steelers. Those AFC North games are always a tossup no matter a team's record.

If the Packers beat the Ravens on Saturday, the Steelers will have won the division. I guess they still have playoff seeding to play for, but still, it is realistic that they would rest some starters.

 

[Chopper0080]

Top 6 (in order)

QB - Mendoza
QB - Simpson
QB - Moore

EDGE - Reese
EDGE - Bain
EDGE - Bailey

I'm still working a bit on Bailey, but pre workouts this is about how it falls for me.

After that you have two OTs, some WRs, a RB, a S, and a DT.

 

[daves]

Metcalf (who lost 45 mill off that punch!)

Actually, at this point he has "only" lost two game checks, I believe $550K. He also voided the guarantees of $45M. But he won't lose the actual money unless / until the Steelers move on from him before the end of his contract. Then they wouldn't have to pay him any of the remaining heretofore guaranteed money.

 

[Stout]

Top 6 (in order)

QB - Mendoza
QB - Simpson
QB - Moore

EDGE - Reese
EDGE - Bain
EDGE - Bailey

I'm still working a bit on Bailey, but pre workouts this is about how it falls for me.

After that you have two OTs, some WRs, a RB, a S, and a DT.

My top 6 would be:
Mendoza
The top OT
The 2nd OT (I can't remember their names...Fano? Something starting with M? lol)
Moore

So, actually, I only have a top 4, but I'm betting one of them will be available. If not, trade back.

 

[Chopper0080]

My top 6 would be:
Mendoza
The top OT
The 2nd OT (I can't remember their names...Fano? Something starting with M? lol)
Moore

So, actually, I only have a top 4, but I'm betting one of them will be available. If not, trade back.

IMO...the top OTs are not the same level of prospects as the top EDGE players from what I have seen. They are good players but not top 5 guys. They would both be a reach for need.

 

[Harry]

IMO...the top OTs are not the same level of prospects as the top EDGE players from what I have seen. They are good players but not top 5 guys. They would both be a reach for need.

I fully agree. If the Cards are sitting at 5-6, if they don’t take a QB, trade down. This is a solid draft for a RT, so take the best offer.

 

[Shane]

Actually, at this point he has "only" lost two game checks, I believe $550K. He also voided the guarantees of $45M. But he won't lose the actual money unless / until the Steelers move on from him before the end of his contract. Then they wouldn't have to pay him any of the remaining heretofore guaranteed money.

Which I’m betting they will most certainly do. Time will tell though. He’s a pretty volatile personality.

 

[Chopper0080]

I fully agree. If the Cards are sitting at 5-6, if they don’t take a QB, trade down. This is a solid draft for a RT, so take the best offer.

I kinda agree. The toughest part will be finding someone to trade up IMO.

While I understand that interest in building the offensive line, I don't believe it is so desperate that you pass up a potentially game changing pass rusher for it. This is why I find @Stout 's viewpoint a little funny. I feel like he has been fairly critical of Monti passing up Will Anderson for Paris Johnson and this would be essentially making the same decision again (without probably trading back up) but he is now for it.

 

[Chopper0080]

My top 6 would be:
Mendoza
The top OT
The 2nd OT (I can't remember their names...Fano? Something starting with M? lol)
Moore

So, actually, I only have a top 4, but I'm betting one of them will be available. If not, trade back.

Monti? I mentioned it in a reply to Harry but you are essentially advocating to do this year what Monti did in 2023 except (maybe) without the trade back. I am shocked you want to potentially pass on Will Anderson, again.