Draft Positioning Week 16

[football karma]

NYG (2-12) at Minn (5-9). We really want the Giants to pull one off here -- but Minny seems to have found their footing. As of today, the Giants actually have a harder SOS than AZ (not sure if that will last through week 18)

NO (4-10) at NYJ (3-11). Maybe the last real shot for the Jets to win, as they finish with NE and Buff -- both of whom will be fighting for the Div crown.


other games:

Tenn (2-12) at KC. Tenn has been frisky and maybe visiting a KC team that was eliminated AND lost Mahomes for a long period will get the Titans a win
CIN (4-10) home vs MIA. Maybe the cold + a short week does Miami in.


NOPE:
Wash (4-10) at Phil.
LV (2-12) home vs Houston.
CLE (3-11) goes to Buff

 

[Chopper0080]

NYG (2-12) at Minn (5-9). We really want the Giants to pull one off here -- but Minny seems to have found their footing. As of today, the Giants actually have a harder SOS than AZ (not sure if that will last through week 18)

NO (4-10) at NYJ (3-11). Maybe the last real shot for the Jets to win, as they finish with NE and Buff -- both of whom will be fighting for the Div crown.


other games:

Tenn (2-12) at KC. Tenn has been frisky and maybe visiting a KC team that was eliminated AND lost Mahomes for a long period will get the Titans a win
CIN (4-10) home vs MIA. Maybe the cold + a short week does Miami in.


NOPE:
Wash (4-10) at Phil.
LV (2-12) home vs Houston.
CLE (3-11) goes to Buff

NYG have hope because they can put pressure on the QB. That's one thing that can lead McCarthy into a spiral.

NYJ really need to win this game.

I think Tenn is also live. They are trying to win games still and KC might start packing things in.

 

[NWMike]

Here's probably the best case scenario for us

This week
Jets over NO

Next week
Raiders over Giants
Tenn over NO

Final week
Cle over Cin

*with Mahomes going down could KC just fold up? If so they have games with TN and the Raiders that come into play.

If that happens we finish at number 2 (tied with TN but they have a stronger SOS) and the Giants are at 1 and seemingly don't need a QB.

 

[WisconsinCard]

Oh we're going to win another game. Just because it's what we do.

 

[Cardiac]

I use to be into this type of thread in the past but no matter who they draft doesn't work out. Bad luck and poor GMing means it doesn't matter how good our draft position is.
I think Monti has mostly been snake bit but he has screwed up a bunch as well.
Even if Mikey cleans house it just means another fairly large roster turnover (not that's a big concern) and a new GM trying to get his scouting department setup.
52 years of being a fan and 45 have been *****. Maybe 40 of them horrific.
FU Bidwill family.

 

[Crimson Warrior]

I use to be into this type of thread in the past but no matter who they draft doesn't work out. Bad luck and poor GMing means it doesn't matter how good our draft position is.
I think Monti has mostly been snake bit but he has screwed up a bunch as well.
Even if Mikey cleans house it just means another fairly large roster turnover (not that's a big concern) and a new GM trying to get his scouting department setup.
52 years of being a fan and 45 have been *****. Maybe 40 of them horrific.
FU Bidwill family.

There's a universe where it's worse next year.

It's not likely but it's possible.

Another bad draft. Another few misses on FAs. Keep JG/DP/NR.

 

[Cardiac]

There's a universe where it's worse next year.

It's not likely but it's possible.

Another bad draft. Another few misses on FAs. Keep JG/DP/NR.

Either way we are screwed. So Either I need 4 root canals or 8. What I won't be doing is getting NFL Sunday ticket for the first time since it has been available.

 

[Harry]

Let’s get real on starters. The presumption that Robinson was taken at a point where he is a sure thing isn’t real. Forget about later rounds. The people attacking Ossenfort don’t seem familiar with a pick’s odds of success. Of the many article on this topic, this one seems to reflect the most common numbers.

Updated: The odds of success of a draft pick, Part 2

www.thehogsty.com

 

[Stout]

Let’s get real on starters. The presumption that Robinson was taken at a point where he is a sure thing isn’t real. Forget about later rounds. The people attacking Ossenfort don’t seem familiar with a pick’s odds of success. Of the many article on this topic, this one seems to reflect the most common numbers.

Updated: The odds of success of a draft pick, Part 2

www.thehogsty.com

Ossenfort myopically pinned almost all his hopes on a slow draft rebuild after a to-the-studs tear down. The roster shows this has clearly not worked, nor have many of his FAs. Not nearly enough, anyway. It has been his job to build a winning and sustainable roster and hire the right coaches. So far, so bad.

 

[Harry]

If Simpson falls comes out and falls to the Cards’ pick, I’d seriously consider moving down. I’m not sure he gets ready to start in one year and I’m also not set on his ability to throw deep. If they could stay in the top 15 and get a first from 2027 plus a third in 2026; I’d move. They could still get a good RT and add a WR & IOL in round 3. I’m think taking a QB in round 2, maybe after trading down to mid-round there as well.

 

[BullheadCardFan]

I’m think taking a QB in round 2, maybe after trading down to mid-round there as well.

Who would you take a shot at?

 

[Chopper0080]

Let’s get real on starters. The presumption that Robinson was taken at a point where he is a sure thing isn’t real. Forget about later rounds. The people attacking Ossenfort don’t seem familiar with a pick’s odds of success. Of the many article on this topic, this one seems to reflect the most common numbers.

Updated: The odds of success of a draft pick, Part 2

www.thehogsty.com

Kinda like JG's gripe about the practice rules, every GM has to deal with bust rates of draft picks. The good ones figure it out, and the bad ones can't. Right now, Monti is a bad one.

 

[Harry]

Who would you take a shot at?

Nussmeier.

 

[JohnnyCakes]

omg please stop with the "draft a WR stuff"

This team needs to lose out and draft Mendoza.

 

[Harry]

Kinda like JG's gripe about the practice rules, every GM has to deal with bust rates of draft picks. The good ones figure it out, and the bad ones can't. Right now, Monti is a bad one.

I couldn’t disagree more. First, still too early to list him as a failure. I believe in the 3 year rule. Second, while he hasn’t been a star, he’s shown improvement. Third, he played much of the time out of position. Fourth, the end of round 1 has been tough even for experienced GMs. Hence more of these picks fail than succeed. Finally I still think overall Ossenfort has been decent for a new GM

 

[Chopper0080]

I couldn’t disagree more. First, still too early to list him as a failure. I believe in the 3 year rule. Second, while he hasn’t been a star, he’s shown improvement. Third, he played much of the time out of position. Fourth, the end of round 1 has been tough even for experienced GMs. Hence more of these picks fail than succeed. Finally I still think overall Ossenfort has been decent for a new GM

I misinterpreted your point regarding the success of picks. My bad. The biggest issue with teh DRob pick IMO is that they drafted a guy who showed success in one role and then moved him into another role.

re: Monti. He hasn't been decent, he has been bad. I don't understand the argument that he has been "decent" or anything better than bad. He hired a bad coach. He let good talent walk. His year 1 plan was to lose. He has missed on almost every high priced FA addition. He has missed on more top 100 players in the draft than he has hit on. And if the counter is that these players need time to develop, he has failed to build a roster that can win while also giving those players time to develop. He has failed to build the lines which happen to be the two areas he said he was going to build when he took the job.

 

[football karma]

the issue with the 2024 draft isnt totally on Robinson. Its that, plus: the 2nd round trade down where all the CBs taken ahead of Melton have thus far been better (although, those players also have been on better defensive rosters as well) AND all those third round picks still have some big ? around them (at best)

 

[TheCardFan]

I think we should take a flyer on drafting a back-up QB to Brissett in 2026 and then swing for the fences for a QB in 2027.
Unless the back-up QB can prove themselves as a QBOF, we have a built in back-up for QBOF.

2026 QB class is weak
2027 QB class will have several options - that is the one to go all in on.

 

[NWMike]

If we end up in the top 5 (and I think we will) you have to at least make a play to go for Mendoza. There is no guarantee we’d be in position to get a top qb in the future without paying a ransom.

 

[oaken1]

I misinterpreted your point regarding the success of picks. My bad. The biggest issue with teh DRob pick IMO is that they drafted a guy who showed success in one role and then moved him into another role.

re: Monti. He hasn't been decent, he has been bad. I don't understand the argument that he has been "decent" or anything better than bad. He hired a bad coach. He let good talent walk. His year 1 plan was to lose. He has missed on almost every high priced FA addition. He has missed on more top 100 players in the draft than he has hit on. And if the counter is that these players need time to develop, he has failed to build a roster that can win while also giving those players time to develop. He has failed to build the lines which happen to be the two areas he said he was going to build when he took the job.

Years and years under Bidwill ownership and yet you lay all of this at monti's feet.

 

[Gandhi]

I’m think taking a QB in round 2, maybe after trading down to mid-round there as well.

The success rate of quarterbacks picked in round 2 is horrible.

 

[Gandhi]

If we end up in the top 5 (and I think we will) you have to at least make a play to go for Mendoza. There is no guarantee we’d be in position to get a top qb in the future without paying a ransom.

If the Jets or Browns (or Raiders at #1) want Mendoza, the Cardinals have no chance. Those teams can easily outbid them.

 

[oaken1]

The success rate of quarterbacks picked in round 2 is horrible.

Not for the Arizona Cardinals.

 

[oaken1]

If the Jets or Browns (or Raiders at #1) want Mendoza, the Cardinals have no chance. Those teams can easily outbid them.

So you make an offer none the less.
Start with your second best offer and see how they react. If it's a hard no you walk away...if they hesitate, hem and haw a little..." tell ya what...just to make this easy on you I'll go ahead and give you..." and lay out your best offer.

......and since we are desperate...if dude "just cant" but sounds like he wants to...
Then you go ahead and throw out your "that GM is an idiot" offer....

If he still dont...you ask again who he is picking...if it ain't your guy...call the next team and start over.
Remember, there is no rule that says the #1 pick has to be a QB...maybe a team is enamored with a pass rusher or a WR or an OT....
We may not need #1 overall to get our guy...likely do. But maybe not.

 

[BACH]

Kinda like JG's gripe about the practice rules, every GM has to deal with bust rates of draft picks. The good ones figure it out, and the bad ones can't. Right now, Monti is a bad one.

This is objectively simply not correct. Monti is batting slightly above average in the draft