With the 4th pick, the Phoenix Suns Select

[ColdPickleNachos]

Yeah I am going back and forth on Brown.

Advanced metrics don't love him, but he is super athletic and Cal suffered from a general lack of spacing.

He is intelligent and thoughtful but whispers from the combine say he is very arrogant.

I think my pick would be Jamal Murray right now.

I'm liking Murray more and more. He wrote a piece for the Player's Tribune that was illuminating:

http://www.theplayerstribune.com/jamal-murray-kentucky-nba-draft/

Jaylen Brown may be intelligent, but so is Brandon Knight. I don't think that translates to basketball IQ for either of them. Knight strikes me as the smartest guy off the court and dumbest one on it. Brown gives me a similar vibe.

 

[Mainstreet]

Initially I was all about drafting Murray however his lack of athleticism as a guard is a major concern for me. Didn't we see enough of this with Kendall Marshall and Tyler Ennis?

Right now I'm about drafting a player that should have a solid NBA career and fill a need such as Henry Ellenson. If the Suns draft a player that has a few warts, let's at least draft a player that fills a need. After the second pick in the draft it's all in the eye of the beholder.

 

[AzStevenCal]

Initially I was all about drafting Murray however his lack of athleticism as a guard is a major concern for me. Didn't we see enough of this with Kendall Marshall and Tyler Ennis?

Right now I'm about drafting a player that should have a solid NBA career and fill a need such as Henry Ellenson. If the Suns draft a player that has a few warts, let's at least draft a player that fills a need. After the second pick in the draft it's all in the eye of the beholder.

For each of those two, that was a lack of quickness rather than a lack of athleticism specifically. Are you saying Murray is slow of foot and/or slow on his release? If so, I'd pass on him too. But IMO athleticism is the most overrated asset when it comes to predicting a basketball player's career. For some reason, it appears to me that for most "scouts", athleticism refers to jumping ability.

 

[ColdPickleNachos]

Initially I was all about drafting Murray however his lack of athleticism as a guard is a major concern for me. Didn't we see enough of this with Kendall Marshall and Tyler Ennis?

Right now I'm about drafting a player that should have a solid NBA career and fill a need such as Henry Ellenson. If the Suns draft a player that has a few warts, let's at least draft a player that fills a need. After the second pick in the draft it's all in the eye of the beholder.

I don't think anyone is going to call him an athletic freak, but Murray is not a bad athlete. His max vertical (according to Draft Express) is 39.5, and he has some impressive in-game dunks.

The issue with Marshall and Ennis (other than the fact that neither was very good) is that they didn't pose the threat of a jumpshot, so defenders could give them room. Murray has an amazing jumper with a quick release, making him a problem to defend.

And he excels as an athlete in the important Curry-Nash attributes of quickness, coordination, etc.

 

[ColdPickleNachos]

For anyone concerned about Murray's athleticism, watch this video:

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Again, he's not Vince Carter, but he's definitely not Kendall Marshall either.

 

[Mainstreet]

For each of those two, that was a lack of quickness rather than a lack of athleticism specifically. Are you saying Murray is slow of foot and/or slow on his release? If so, I'd pass on him too. But IMO athleticism is the most overrated asset when it comes to predicting a basketball player's career. For some reason, it appears to me that for most "scouts", athleticism refers to jumping ability.

I don't think anyone is going to call him an athletic freak, but Murray is not a bad athlete. His max vertical (according to Draft Express) is 39.5, and he has some impressive in-game dunks.

The issue with Marshall and Ennis (other than the fact that neither was very good) is that they didn't pose the threat of a jumpshot, so defenders could give them room. Murray has an amazing jumper with a quick release, making him a problem to defend.

And he excels as an athlete in the important Curry-Nash attributes of quickness, coordination, etc.

Maybe I'm picking his game apart because of the Marshall and Ennis experience. I worry about Murray's lateral quickness and his ability to finish at the rim. I've attached a link to a video about his weaknesses.

See below.

The reason you draft Murray is his explosiveness as a scorer but more importantly his ability to play PG. The ability to play PG separates Murray from Heild. If Murray can't get around the corner on defenses it hinders his ability to play PG. Don't get me wrong, I really like Murray but he has to be really special and he has to be able to play PG at a very high level for me to draft him. In some ways he reminds me of Devin Booker, so yes I like him a lot. Otherwise, I draft a big man. There are a number of good PGs in the draft even into the second round.

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[ColdPickleNachos]

I agree with your assessment that Murray has to be special to be worth drafting, but I think he has a good chance to be special. I certainly think he has a better chance than Ellenson.

From Chad Ford after a recent workout:

"As good as Ingram looked in those shooting drills, Murray looked even better. He rarely missed in the 90-minute workout I saw, even when he was standing five feet beyond the NBA 3-point line.

Murray's the type of player who really comes alive when the lights are on and kept pushing through repetitions of the star drill, trying to break the record for the most 3s hit in a two-minute period. He hit 22 in his first try -- just short of the record of 23, which he achieved on his second try. Then his workout partner, Dyshawn Pierre, made 24. Murray asked to go through the exhausting drill one more time and this time made 25.

How good do you have to be to hit 25 3s in two minutes -- especially when after every made 3 you have to run to another spot on the floor? In that sequence he was 25-for-27 from beyond the arc. Murray's release is quick, but it's his competitiveness that makes him especially lethal."

I also agree that he needs to project as a point guard. I think he can do this. That video of his weaknesses starts out with him listing what he needed to improve on after high school. Watch the weaknesses video (from before he was in college) and then watch some of his work at Kentucky. I would argue he has already made some significant progress in areas of concern.

And it's not like he wasn't special before. Many of the lowlights in that video are from the 2015 Nike Hoop Summit. In that game, Murray led the World team to a victory over the US team, scored 30 points, and was named MVP.

 

[Mainstreet]

I agree with your assessment that Murray has to be special to be worth drafting, but I think he has a good chance to be special. I certainly think he has a better chance than Ellenson.

From Chad Ford after a recent workout:

"As good as Ingram looked in those shooting drills, Murray looked even better. He rarely missed in the 90-minute workout I saw, even when he was standing five feet beyond the NBA 3-point line.

Murray's the type of player who really comes alive when the lights are on and kept pushing through repetitions of the star drill, trying to break the record for the most 3s hit in a two-minute period. He hit 22 in his first try -- just short of the record of 23, which he achieved on his second try. Then his workout partner, Dyshawn Pierre, made 24. Murray asked to go through the exhausting drill one more time and this time made 25.

How good do you have to be to hit 25 3s in two minutes -- especially when after every made 3 you have to run to another spot on the floor? In that sequence he was 25-for-27 from beyond the arc. Murray's release is quick, but it's his competitiveness that makes him especially lethal."

I also agree that he needs to project as a point guard. I think he can do this. That video of his weaknesses starts out with him listing what he needed to improve on since high school. Watch the weaknesses video (from before he was in college) and then watch some of his work at Kentucky. I would argue he has already made some significant progress in areas of concern.

And it's not like he wasn't special before. Many of the lowlights in that video are from the 2015 Nike Hoop Summit. In that game, Murray led the World team to a victory over the US team, scored 30 points, and was named MVP.

If the Suns draft Murray I would be immensely excited. Always draft BPA available if there is a significant difference in talent.

I do think Ellenson will surprise. His ability to be a ballhandler at his size (he used to play guard) speaks volume about his potential.

 

[elindholm]

I agree with your assessment that Murray has to be special to be worth drafting, but I think he has a good chance to be special. I certainly think he has a better chance than Ellenson.

From Chad Ford after a recent workout:

"As good as Ingram looked in those shooting drills, Murray looked even better. He rarely missed in the 90-minute workout I saw, even when he was standing five feet beyond the NBA 3-point line.

Murray's the type of player who really comes alive when the lights are on and kept pushing through repetitions of the star drill, trying to break the record for the most 3s hit in a two-minute period. He hit 22 in his first try -- just short of the record of 23, which he achieved on his second try. Then his workout partner, Dyshawn Pierre, made 24. Murray asked to go through the exhausting drill one more time and this time made 25.

How good do you have to be to hit 25 3s in two minutes -- especially when after every made 3 you have to run to another spot on the floor? In that sequence he was 25-for-27 from beyond the arc. Murray's release is quick, but it's his competitiveness that makes him especially lethal."

I also agree that he needs to project as a point guard. I think he can do this. That video of his weaknesses starts out with him listing what he needed to improve on after high school. Watch the weaknesses video (from before he was in college) and then watch some of his work at Kentucky. I would argue he has already made some significant progress in areas of concern.

And it's not like he wasn't special before. Many of the lowlights in that video are from the 2015 Nike Hoop Summit. In that game, Murray led the World team to a victory over the US team, scored 30 points, and was named MVP.

I'm sold, let's get him. He can spend three years developing while Bledsoe runs out his contract.

 

[GatorAZ]

There have been rumors surrounding Okafor to Boston for the 3rd pick. Philly takes Simmons #1 and Murray #3. We could settle for Bender or trade back if someone really wants Hield (Denver)?

 

[Mainstreet]

There have been rumors surrounding Okafor to Boston for the 3rd pick. Philly takes Simmons #1 and Murray #3. We could settle for Bender or trade back if someone really wants Hield (Denver)?

There is no doubt the Celtics will throw a throw a monkey wrench into the works but I think most fans on the forum knew it.

Bender will likely be a long term project. The Suns do not need Hield and there are many questions about Brown.

The Celtics make out like bandits in a trade.

 

[leclerc]

Murray seems athletic enough to me, especially with that shooting ability and determination plus he's a combo guard from Kentucky so we have to draft him (and his brother). I guess he's a good option if we go BPA.

Maybe we'll have a logjam at shooting guard. With Bledsoe and Booker starting Murray has to fight Knight (hopefully traded), Milos and Goodwin for minutes at shooting guard. Is Murray good enough to play backup point guard? Is he better than Knight and Goodwin as a distributor? The last question was rhetorical. He's obviously a better distributor than black hole Knight and a better ball handler than Goodwin. Plus he can throw the lob.

Problem is we need PF badly. How much of a sure thing is Ellenson or Chriss? How much better is Murray? Are there any decent starter material PF left at #13?

We can always suck for another year and get a top 5 PF next year. If we can't shake a PF in the draft or by trading Knight. We need a stud PF before we're done rebuilding. I want us to be great, not just mediocre 7th or 8th ranked in the west.

 

[overseascardfan]

If PHX ends up signing Horford then possibilities open up for #4. Right now I really like Ellenson and since everyone after Simmons & Ingram are on the same tier talent wise, I take him. Found it interesting that he played PG until HS which explains his ball handling and jump shot. If he can improve on his pick and roll defense then he could be a steal. I think his stock is definitely on the rise and he won't be there at #13.

 

[ColdPickleNachos]

Speaking of power forwards who won't be there at #13...

https://twitter.com/chadfordinsider/status/735215704304148480

 

[ColdPickleNachos]

I hesitate to offer a trade suggestion, because they never happen and are almost always one-sided in favor of the fan's team...

But how about Brandon Knight, #13, and one of our later picks (28,34) to the Kings for #8?

Take Jamal Murray at 4 and Ellenson or Chriss at 8.

I've made the case for Murray already, and if we go that route, there is no room for Knight, so it's addition by subtraction.

I think it makes sense for the Kings as well. They have needs in the backcourt, so Knight is a reasonable fit there. They've drafted in the mid-lottery for so many years in a row with no success, they might be open to trying something new. And finally, there should be some good options at 13 still available.

The Suns upgrade their talent, have an amazing group of young players to develop, and can work on adding top-level defensive role players to complement the new additions once they're ready to compete.

 

[Mainstreet]

I hesitate to offer a trade suggestion, because they never happen and are almost always one-sided in favor of the fan's team...

But how about Brandon Knight, #13, and one of our later picks (28,34) to the Kings for #8?

Take Jamal Murray at 4 and Ellenson or Chriss at 8.

I've made the case for Murray already, and if we go that route, there is no room for Knight, so it's addition by subtraction.

I think it makes sense for the Kings as well. They have needs in the backcourt, so Knight is a reasonable fit there. They've drafted in the mid-lottery for so many years in a row with no success, they might be open to trying something new. And finally, there should be some good options at 13 still available.

The Suns upgrade their talent, have an amazing group of young players to develop, and can work on adding top-level defensive role players to complement the new additions once they're ready to compete.

IMO, you are way overpayingfor the #8 pick. Plus who do the Suns get back from the Kings. Also Ellenson may not be there at #8.

I can understand you wanting to draft Murray. I think I liked him with the Suns first pick before anyone wanted to draft him on the Suns forum (although I could be wrong about this). However, GatorHater's rumor may be correct. It sounds like it could happen.

There have been rumors surrounding Okafor to Boston for the 3rd pick. Philly takes Simmons #1 and Murray #3. We could settle for Bender or trade back if someone really wants Hield (Denver)?

If the rumor happens to be true, who do you draft at #4 if the Suns cannot trade down?

 

[ColdPickleNachos]

I probably only do the trade contingent on Murray being available at 4. Otherwise, I grab Bender and hope Valentine is there at 13.

One of Ellenson or Chriss would almost definitely be there at 8. Simmons, Ingram, Bender, Dunn, Murray, Hield, and maybe Poeltl should go first.

As for the value we would get on the trade...

I probably overcompensated because I hate when fans make lopsided trades in their team's favor. I think you offer Knight for 8 straight up and work from there, but I would be willing to overpay in this situation to end up with the right mix of young players moving forward.

I really hope we focus on development over everything else this year. Next year's draft is going to be a really good one.

 

[AzStevenCal]

I probably only do the trade contingent on Murray being available at 4. Otherwise, I grab Bender and hope Valentine is there at 13.

One of Ellenson or Chriss would almost definitely be there at 8. Simmons, Ingram, Bender, Dunn, Murray, Hield, and maybe Poeltl should go first.

As for the value we would get on the trade...

I probably overcompensated because I hate when fans make lopsided trades in their team's favor. I think you offer Knight for 8 straight up and work from there, but I would be willing to overpay in this situation to end up with the right mix of young players moving forward.

I really hope we focus on development over everything else this year. Next year's draft is going to be a really good one.

As do I but I just don't think it's going to happen. BTW, a lot of people seem to be thinking the same as you. I've seen the Knight for Sac's pick several places including the Sac forum on Rgm. I guess it's assumed that the Kings need another guard more than they need another rookie.

 

[ColdPickleNachos]

Yeah. Seems like a natural fit. If we get something of real value for Knight this offseason, I will be ecstatic.

 

[Matt L]

After watching some highlights, i like Jaylen Brown at four.

 

[slinslin]

Brandon Knight and maybe 28+34 is a fair price for #8

there is no need to throw in #13.

 

[AzStevenCal]

After watching some highlights, i like Jaylen Brown at four.

If you watch more than highlights you might re-think that pick. He's intriguing but he has a little too much Archie Goodwin/Gerald Green in him for me to be comfortable taking him at 4. If he nails the workouts and wows them in the interviews, maybe he goes that high but his weaknesses are as scary as his athleticism is exciting.

 

[slinslin]

1. Would you trade #4 for Okafor?
2. Would you trade Knight, 28, 34 for #8?
3. Would you trade Len for #5(MIN) and Pekovic?

If you say yes to all this turns into
Okafor for Len
#5 for #4
#8 for Knight

Additionally we take on long term bad salary from Pekovic and lose our later picks but still have #5,#8 and #13 - Booker, Bledsoe, Warren, Okafor, Bogdanovic

 

[Phrazbit]

1. Would you trade #4 for Okafor?
2. Would you trade Knight, 28, 34 for #8?
3. Would you trade Len for #5(MIN) and Pekovic?

If you say yes to all this turns into
Okafor for Len
#5 for #4
#8 for Knight

Additionally we take on long term bad salary from Pekovic and lose our later picks but still have #5,#8 and #13 - Booker, Bledsoe, Warren, Okafor, Bogdanovic

Yeah, I'd do all those things... but I don't think the trade partners would indulge us. The most obvious flaw in that train is that the #4 pick is valuable enough to land Okafor, but the #5 pick can be had for Len? The drop off between #4 and 5 is minimal, but the gap between Len and Okafor is gargantuan.

 

[slinslin]

Yeah, I'd do all those things... but I don't think the trade partners would indulge us. The most obvious flaw in that train is that the #4 pick is valuable enough to land Okafor, but the #5 pick can be had for Len? The drop off between #4 and 5 is minimal, but the gap between Len and Okafor is gargantuan.

There is this little thing about Pekovic who is owed something like 35M$ over the next 3 years for no production.