Sure. Projected by Mel Kiper, Daniel Jeremiah and friends. And the “sure bet draft prospect” doesn’t exist.There are two problems with over drafting a QB:
1. He is projected later for a reason. He isn’t considered as sure a bet.
But if you take him with the third pick you’re likely sticking with him at least two years. Which means you forego QBs the next season when they may be better. If you blew it on him you’ve set your timeline back more because you’re not trying to find his replacement yet.
Yes, but that is only a problem if he doesn’t pan out. If he fails, and if next year’s draft is better QB-wise, then yes, your point makes sense. All of that is speculation, though, and from that perspective you could also argue that if he pans out, no draft pick will ever be too high for him.
2. And while you’re doing that you’re missing talent at other positions. And if you blew it over drafting him you missed out on other talent and then having to double down on that issue by having to draft another QB high, thereby missing out on additional elite talent at other positions. Snowballing the dearth of talent on the team.
Again, yes, I agree, but if you draft a quarterback at #3 overall it is obviously not with the plan that he fails. If you do in fact think that you could get him with a later pick, then yes, it is bad tactics to take ham as early as possible.