Reevaluating the 2013 Free Agent Pool

[ASUCHRIS]

OT: I almost feel bad for ASU and the defection of Patterson. Any other ASU alums concerned that Your boy Graham has multiple levels of "Dream Jobs?"

I know this is for another forum but wanted to get ASUChris's take!

Disappointed, but not surprised. It's hard to fault a guy for landing a job at his alma mater for triple the pay. Hope he's ready to be under the microscope, because the media spotlight will be burning significantly hotter in Austin. (Especially with the responsibility of hiring a football head coach, arguably the most important position in the state)

For ASU, it's definitely not an ideal time to be losing an AD, in the middle of major facilities upgrade discussions. Hopefully (from my perspective, of course) we find our next Steve Patterson, and not the next Lisa Love. Maybe we'll use the alma mater angle to poach Byrne...

Definitely some concern Graham could bolt, especially considering his relationship with Patterson but it also sounds like UT wants Saban, and I'm sure Nicky Satan is ready for a new job. Although I believe in Graham as a leader of a program, and hope he sticks around, I also think Norvell deserves a lot of credit for making the offense what it is. I wouldn't be shocked if Graham leaves and Norvell is named HC.

Guess we'll see how it plays out, should be an interesting next 6 months.

 

[Arizona's Finest]

Disappointed, but not surprised. It's hard to fault a guy for landing a job at his alma mater for triple the pay. Hope he's ready to be under the microscope, because the media spotlight will be burning significantly hotter in Austin. (Especially with the responsibility of hiring a football head coach, arguably the most important position in the state)

For ASU, it's definitely not an ideal time to be losing an AD, in the middle of major facilities upgrade discussions. Hopefully (from my perspective, of course) we find our next Steve Patterson, and not the next Lisa Love. Maybe we'll use the alma mater angle to poach Byrne...

Definitely some concern Graham could bolt, especially considering his relationship with Patterson but it also sounds like UT wants Saban, and I'm sure Nicky Satan is ready for a new job. Although I believe in Graham as a leader of a program, and hope he sticks around, I also think Norvell deserves a lot of credit for making the offense what it is. I wouldn't be shocked if Graham leaves and Norvell is named HC.

Guess we'll see how it plays out, should be an interesting next 6 months.

Not. Gonna. Happen

 

[BigRedRage]

i hate that college coaching positions are so fickle and graham leaving even has to come up - it sucks for the fans and it sucks for the kids who commit to a coach only to have him bail on them

 

[Cardiac]

I'm not 100% sure of what the question that you're asking is. I think that a team in the short run (5 years, maybe) can do a better job of drafting than the average, but that in the long run, all teams end up doing about the same drafting and developing talent. Saying "we're going to draft the best players available" every year as your personnel strategy isn't sustainable, because you're naturally going to develop roster holes when you pick the BPA that happens to be at the same position year after year.

My question and point is that if you agree all teams have the same draft and development success in the long term then why do you bash on SK soooo much.

I don't think it makes much sense as a general rule to use draft capital and cap space on nose tackle, inside linebacker, safety, guard, center, running back, #2 and #4 cornerback, #2 and #3 WR... and fullback.

Pretty much agree with this. Noting exceptions can be made for studs like Ed Reid at Safety etc.

I think that your premire positions are QB, Pass rusher, #1 WR, Cornerback, and left tackle, in that order. I think that you can justify spending 40% or more of your cap on just those positions and still maintain a healthy roster for the balance of the team.

Based on this list, which I pretty much agree with, then you think we should go QB, then Pass rusher then LT in this next draft. Keeping in mind that we probably won't be able afford a premier player in FA.

I'm not screaming to the rafters on Daryl Washington's extension because it's a smart one. He never has a cap charge over $7.5M, and there's only one season where his hold is that high.

Agree on DWash. Aren't DD' and CC's CAP hits relatively close to this as well.

 

[kerouac9]

I bash on Steve Keim because he doesn't qualify his evaluations, and (assumedly) his evaluations are often completely wrong. Take Rob Housler being a "superstar" (this isn't backward-looking; Keim said this eight months ago). That dude is terrible. And Keim had two years to start to figure that out.

I guess the point is that the Cards don't have the "long run" to get successful, because they've already been terrible, and they're going to shed a bunch of the "old regimes" acquisitions in the turnover. I don't cheer a pick like Patrick Peterson as incisively savvy, because he was clearly the last remaining elite talent on the board at that time.

I'm more impressed with the questionable moves who work out. Moves like... drafting Ryan Williams when you already have 2 1000-yard-type rushers on your roster and drafting a tight end from a small school in the third round who sat out his junior year for some reason.

If those moves start paying dividends, I'll start giving Keim more credit for making them. You don't get an "A" for effort in taking a risk on D.C. Jefferson and Ryan Swope when neither really play meaningful football for you.

Agree on DWash. Aren't DD' and CC's CAP hits relatively close to this as well.

Nope. Campbell's cap hold accelerates to over $11M in each of the next three years. That's why we're unlikely to sign a free agent pass rusher instead of drafting one and having him on the roster as a cheap asset.

Dockett's cap number is $8.75M next year and nearly $10M in 2015. When you're getting similar production from Ronald Talley and Frostee Rucker for literally 10% of the cost, that's a tough pill to swallow.

 

[Cardiac]

I bash on Steve Keim because he doesn't qualify his evaluations, and (assumedly) his evaluations are often completely wrong. Take Rob Housler being a "superstar" (this isn't backward-looking; Keim said this eight months ago). That dude is terrible. And Keim had two years to start to figure that out.

Housler did have a decent year in 2012 and based on his physical skills should be having a much better year. You have said yourself that it was hard to determine what talent we actually had on the O due to the horrific QB play. There's also the possibility that SK was just trying to build up Housler's confidence while setting the bar high for him.

I guess the point is that the Cards don't have the "long run" to get successful, because they've already been terrible, and they're going to shed a bunch of the "old regimes" acquisitions in the turnover. I don't cheer a pick like Patrick Peterson as incisively savvy, because he was clearly the last remaining elite talent on the board at that time.

Peterson was pretty much a no brainer but were any of us 100% certain he was going to be our pick. While you want to hold accountable to prior drafts I'm in the group that believes that he gets graded for this draft and going forward.

I'm more impressed with the questionable moves who work out. Moves like... drafting Ryan Williams when you already have 2 1000-yard-type rushers on your roster and drafting a tight end from a small school in the third round who sat out his junior year for some reason.

Having two 1000-yard-type rushers didn't work out that well so I'm not against taking a RB in rd2 that year. I would have preferred a pass rusher or Olineman but as it turns out Williams was needed, unfortunately he had the freak knee injury.

If those moves start paying dividends, I'll start giving Keim more credit for making them. You don't get an "A" for effort in taking a risk on D.C. Jefferson and Ryan Swope when neither really play meaningful football for you.

I'll see your 6th and 7th rd risks and raise with 3rd & 6th rd steals Honey Badger & Ellington.

Nope. Campbell's cap hold accelerates to over $11M in each of the next three years. That's why we're unlikely to sign a free agent pass rusher instead of drafting one and having him on the roster as a cheap asset.

Dockett's cap number is $8.75M next year and nearly $10M in 2015. When you're getting similar production from Ronald Talley and Frostee Rucker for literally 10% of the cost, that's a tough pill to swallow.

I'm good with CC's CAP numbers because he is worth it. DD's is a bit high and it will be interesting to see how Keim & Licht handle this.

Bottom line for me is that I'm encouraged by most of the moves SK has made since taking over the GM role. LT issue was a huge miss. Palmer was the best option at QB but that hasn't looked good so far. Swope miss/bust is concerning because either SK rolled the dice with horrible odds or our medical staff missed.

On the positive side LOS, Rucker, Shaughnesey, Powers, Arenas, Brinkley, Winston, Abraham have all been decent to very good acquisitions.

 

[kerouac9]

I'm good with CC's CAP numbers because he is worth it. DD's is a bit high and it will be interesting to see how Keim & Licht handle this.

Bottom line for me is that I'm encouraged by most of the moves SK has made since taking over the GM role. LT issue was a huge miss. Palmer was the best option at QB but that hasn't looked good so far. Swope miss/bust is concerning because either SK rolled the dice with horrible odds or our medical staff missed.

On the positive side LOS, Rucker, Shaughnesey, Powers, Arenas, Brinkley, Winston, Abraham have all been decent to very good acquisitions.

I don't know about Arenas (not counting the cost), Brinkley, or Winston. As I said at the time of acquisition, the real cost of that signing is the development of Bobbie Massie. We're going to pay Winston more than Massie, and Winston hasn't been an upgrade over the guy we saw over the last half of 2012.

Brinkley is nothing. We're paying him over a million dollars this year; I don't expect him to be on the roster next year with a $1.75M cap hold. Just to put the Brinkley contract in perspective, we're paying him 75% of what we're paying Dansby. Can anyone say that we're getting 75% of Dansby's production from him?

 

[Cbus cardsfan]

I don't know about Arenas (not counting the cost), Brinkley, or Winston. As I said at the time of acquisition, the real cost of that signing is the development of Bobbie Massie. We're going to pay Winston more than Massie, and Winston hasn't been an upgrade over the guy we saw over the last half of 2012.

Brinkley is nothing. We're paying him over a million dollars this year; I don't expect him to be on the roster next year with a $1.75M cap hold. Just to put the Brinkley contract in perspective, we're paying him 75% of what we're paying Dansby. Can anyone say that we're getting 75% of Dansby's production from him?

But Brinkley has given us more production at a fraction of the cost than Stewart Bradley ever did.

I feel much better. I finally got a Stewart Bradley rip in this year .

 

[kerouac9]

But Brinkley has given us more production at a fraction of the cost than Stewart Bradley ever did.

I feel much better. I finally got a Stewart Bradley rip in this year .

There, there, Cbus. I miss that overpaid scrub, too.

 

[Cardiac]

I don't know about Arenas (not counting the cost), Brinkley, or Winston. As I said at the time of acquisition, the real cost of that signing is the development of Bobbie Massie. We're going to pay Winston more than Massie, and Winston hasn't been an upgrade over the guy we saw over the last half of 2012.

Winston was needed due to lack of depth and the fact that Massie was making a ton of mental errors. Maybe there are actual blocking schemes in BA's offense and none in Grimms? Whatever the cause Massie would have been atrocious early in the year. Now that he knows the O he is getting reps.
Winston does earn extra based on whether he is starting or not but do we know if it's based on being the starter all year or a portion there of.

Brinkley is nothing. We're paying him over a million dollars this year; I don't expect him to be on the roster next year with a $1.75M cap hold. Just to put the Brinkley contract in perspective, we're paying him 75% of what we're paying Dansby. Can anyone say that we're getting 75% of Dansby's production from him?

I'm not a big Brinkley fan but the dude does play the run incredibly well. I think we can all admit that LOS was a stellar acquisition and a steal for what we are paying him. When we signed Brinkley LOS wanted far more money and Minter wasn't drafted yet.

Point is SK has not gone with the hope and prayer philosophy and has been proactive in bringing in talent on the team even if it feels redundant at the time or in hindsight. Brinkley ensured we had a decent ILBer but when other options became available SK didn't hesitate to upgrade the position.

His glaring miss was at the LT position.

 

[kerouac9]

Winston was needed due to lack of depth and the fact that Massie was making a ton of mental errors. Maybe there are actual blocking schemes in BA's offense and none in Grimms? Whatever the cause Massie would have been atrocious early in the year. Now that he knows the O he is getting reps.
Winston does earn extra based on whether he is starting or not but do we know if it's based on being the starter all year or a portion there of.

It's pretty incredible that you're just sitting around on this board when you have the clairvoyance to know what would have happened had Massie had all the first-team reps in training camp and the preseason.

 

[Cardiac]

It's pretty incredible that you're just sitting around on this board when you have the clairvoyance to know what would have happened had Massie had all the first-team reps in training camp and the preseason.

Yep, I have skills.

Massie had plenty of reps to get it right. More than Winston because he wasn't here for OTA's and still wasn't screwing up at the same frequency as Massie.

I'm a big Massie fan and was curious and confused as to why Winston beat him out until I read Massie's own comments about how many mental errors he was making in TC.

Now that your latest deflection has been addressed maybe we could consider that Keim has been proactive and this offseason hasn't been the mess you like to portray.

 

[kerouac9]

Yep, I have skills.

Massie had plenty of reps to get it right. More than Winston because he wasn't here for OTA's and still wasn't screwing up at the same frequency as Massie.

I'm a big Massie fan and was curious and confused as to why Winston beat him out until I read Massie's own comments about how many mental errors he was making in TC.

Now that your latest deflection has been addressed maybe we could consider that Keim has been proactive and this offseason hasn't been the mess you like to portray.

I'd appreciate the link on Massie's comments.

I don't know what "has been proactive" means. He gutted the roster, and then signed a bunch of guys to one-year deals. Congratulations; you kicked the can down the road. Good job not signing Adam Snyder or Stewart Bradley to $20M deals. Good job signing adequate or so players to the most fungible positions in the NFL.

Now build the team for sustainable success, because you're going to be rolling the dice with the Lorenzo Alexanders and Jasper Brinkleys of the NFL again next year.

 

[Cardiac]

I'd appreciate the link on Massie's comments.

I don't know what "has been proactive" means. He gutted the roster, and then signed a bunch of guys to one-year deals. Congratulations; you kicked the can down the road. Good job not signing Adam Snyder or Stewart Bradley to $20M deals. Good job signing adequate or so players to the most fungible positions in the NFL.

Now build the team for sustainable success, because you're going to be rolling the dice with the Lorenzo Alexanders and Jasper Brinkleys of the NFL again next year.

My pleasure since you bring a ton of info to ASFN.

http://www.azcardinals.com/news-and...Up-Front/9a948ee3-03ff-42ff-86cb-103de1e43c08

Not sure the roster was gutted. Rhodes & ADub are really the only ones I think could have helped this year. You're not bemoaning the losses of Snyder, Gay, Bradley etc are you? Maybe Scho could have helped, especially since we lost 3 OLBer's for the season in one game.

Keim comes in with a plan and part of that is getting the CAP fixed while trying to field a competitive team. The team is 4-4 right now which is better than many of us thought it could be. Jury still out on SK, especially this early in his tenure as the GM but I like most of what he's done thus far.

 

[kerouac9]

My pleasure since you bring a ton of info to ASFN.

http://www.azcardinals.com/news-and...Up-Front/9a948ee3-03ff-42ff-86cb-103de1e43c08

Not sure the roster was gutted. Rhodes & ADub are really the only ones I think could have helped this year. You're not bemoaning the losses of Snyder, Gay, Bradley etc are you? Maybe Scho could have helped, especially since we lost 3 OLBer's for the season in one game.

Keim comes in with a plan and part of that is getting the CAP fixed while trying to field a competitive team. The team is 4-4 right now which is better than many of us thought it could be. Jury still out on SK, especially this early in his tenure as the GM but I like most of what he's done thus far.

Not really. Snyder was adequately replaced by Fanika, Gay by Powers, Bradley by Minter/Brinkley. But those are all pretty much lateral moves. This team isn't better because the talent or coaching is improved from last year; this team is better because last year they played the hardest schedule in the NFL, and this year they're playing an easier schedule (slightly--4th currently with the 27th-easiest to come) and have been relatively healthier.

So we had a bunch of roster turnover (and a ton of dead money created) for a series of lateral moves. The QB position is nominally more stable. We're at the same record right now that we were at this time a year ago.

I'm not saying that you can't or shouldn't like what he's done thus far, but you have to admit that the glaring weaknesses present on the roster when he took the job are as glaring right now, and because of the way free agency was addressed this offseason, it's not clear that we'll have the resources to address them next year, either.

 

[Cardiac]

Not really. Snyder was adequately replaced by Fanika, Gay by Powers, Bradley by Minter/Brinkley. But those are all pretty much lateral moves. This team isn't better because the talent or coaching is improved from last year; this team is better because last year they played the hardest schedule in the NFL, and this year they're playing an easier schedule (slightly--4th currently with the 27th-easiest to come) and have been relatively healthier.

So we had a bunch of roster turnover (and a ton of dead money created) for a series of lateral moves. The QB position is nominally more stable. We're at the same record right now that we were at this time a year ago.

I'm not saying that you can't or shouldn't like what he's done thus far, but you have to admit that the glaring weaknesses present on the roster when he took the job are as glaring right now, and because of the way free agency was addressed this offseason, it's not clear that we'll have the resources to address them next year, either.

LT, QB, TE and pass rusher are still glaring weaknesses so I agree with you on this. This offseason will tell us far more on how SK's plan will work.

I doubt we will see much if any big splashes in FA because of the CAP situation.