Reevaluating the 2013 Free Agent Pool

[Krangodnzr]

The difference with the Baltimore, New England, and a few other teams' drafts is that they already have developed veterans on their roster that are (1) home-grown and (2) on their second or third contract. You just don't have as many roster spots for rookies when you have a guy that's going to play on your team for 10 years.

The problem for THIS TEAM is that they've blown 3 or 4 drafts in a row, and so are going to have to shell out free agency money for older players instead of extending their own guys just to field a roster.

And, I'm sorry, but teams aren't generally blowing out 2nd and 3rd round picks within two or three years.

No debate from me. Absolutely true. Justin Houston would look great in a Cardinals uniform right now, and no matter how athletic and fast Housler is, I think the jury is in, and the dude is a bust.

I find it ridiculous that we, as fans, knew that was the pick to make and our front office blows it.

Obviously we can't really judge Minter right now since Dansby is literally a top five ILB this year and Mathieu is looking like a multi Pro Bowler or possible All Pro. This draft looks more like 2003 than any draft since then, so I think we're seeing that Keim might "get it".

 

[Krangodnzr]

How did we blow the 2013 draft?

And for the record: Seattle's 1st and 3rd round picks from the 2009 Draft and their 3rd round pick from 2011 draft are off their roster not to mention the 3rd rounder from 2011 they blew on Charlie Whitehurst. San Francisco's 1st round pick from 2012, 3rd round pick from 2009, and 2nd round pick from 2010 are no longer on their rosters. That isn't stopping them from being two of the three best teams in the NFL. Draft busts happen.

I'll respond for Kerouac. The problem is: The Cardinals blow those picks nearly every year, whereas teams like San Fran and Seattle rarely blow them.

Seattle's success is ridiculous. Getting a potential franchise guy in the third round. A top three corner in the 5th round. Getting a pass rusher (Clemons) and top three RB for peanuts. The only thing that makes me feel a little better is that they haven't paid most of their good players yet, and soon we will see years where Seattle has to pay THREE of their top guys in one offseason, which is no small task. Not to mention, they will also have to retain their second-tier studs like Bruce Irvin.

They will lose some of their talent, and they haven't proven they can draft for replacements consistently yet.

 

[MaoTosiFanClub]

I'll respond for Kerouac. The problem is: The Cardinals blow those picks nearly every year, whereas teams like San Fran and Seattle rarely blow them.

Seattle's success is ridiculous. Getting a potential franchise guy in the third round. A top three corner in the 5th round. Getting a pass rusher (Clemons) and top three RB for peanuts. The only thing that makes me feel a little better is that they haven't paid most of their good players yet, and soon we will see years where Seattle has to pay THREE of their top guys in one offseason, which is no small task. Not to mention, they will also have to retain their second-tier studs like Bruce Irvin.

They will lose some of their talent, and they haven't proven they can draft for replacements consistently yet.

I understand that but piling on Keim for past drafts where he didn't have as much pull as the owners, GM, and head coach doesn't make much sense to me. I'll judge his reign as the GM from the time he started as GM not when he had to bow down to the wishes of people like Graves and Whisenhunt. And since he's been GM he has a pretty decent job especially in the draft.

 

[kerouac9]

I understand that but piling on Keim for past drafts where he didn't have as much pull as the owners, GM, and head coach doesn't make much sense to me. I'll judge his reign as the GM from the time he started as GM not when he had to bow down to the wishes of people like Graves and Whisenhunt. And since he's been GM he has a pretty decent job especially in the draft.

My, my, my... Aren't we placing a lot of stock in a third and sixth round pick, vs. one guy who got injured, one guy who never plays, one guy who had an inessential surgery rather than start, and one guy who will never play in even a preseason game.

The standard for "pretty decent job" has fallen remarkably low in these parts.

 

[MaoTosiFanClub]

My, my, my... Aren't we placing a lot of stock in a third and sixth round pick, vs. one guy who got injured, one guy who never plays, one guy who had an inessential surgery rather than start, and one guy who will never play in even a preseason game.

The standard for "pretty decent job" has fallen remarkably low in these parts.

Even in the unlikely chance nobody else from the draft pans out those 3rd and 6th round picks both will make a Pro Bowl someday. You get two Pro Bowlers in one draft and it's a success. This isn't Madden, teams that do that every year will win a crapload of football games.

 

[kerouac9]

Even in the unlikely chance nobody else from the draft pans out those 3rd and 6th round picks both will make a Pro Bowl someday. You get two Pro Bowlers in one draft and it's a success. This isn't Madden, teams that do that every year will win a crapload of football games.

Yes, if you assume that our 3rd and 6th round picks both make a Pro Bowl (for the Cards, assumedly)--which IMO is a reach on both counts, but particularly Ellington's--this draft could be considered successful.

Of course, the Cards got two Pro Bowl talents in the 2008 draft (Campbell and DRC), and people couldn't wait to get rid of Graves and Whis. So go figure.

I'd guess that if the Cards get nothing out of the 6th overall pick (or fail to get mutiple pro bowls out of the first guard drafted in the Top 10 in a generation), and get nothing more out of Minter than four or five years of solid special teams play, Mathieu can go into the Ring of Honor and Ellington could rush for 1000 yards three years out of five, and people are going to think of Keim's first draft as a disaster.

FYI--The Cards 2001 draft featured three Pro Bowlers and a fourth player who started 114 NFL games over 10 NFL seasons, and no one looks at that draft as one of the most successful in franchise history.

 

[MaoTosiFanClub]

Yes, if you assume that our 3rd and 6th round picks both make a Pro Bowl (for the Cards, assumedly)--which IMO is a reach on both counts, but particularly Ellington's--this draft could be considered successful.

Of course, the Cards got two Pro Bowl talents in the 2008 draft (Campbell and DRC), and people couldn't wait to get rid of Graves and Whis. So go figure.

I'm assuming they're going to be good because All Rookie players generally go on to make Pro Bowls. It's certainly more of a sound theory than your theory that Cooper, Minter, Okafor, and Watfor will suck because they're currently not playing for a variety of reasons.

I also said stacking drafts wins football games. 2006, 2007, and 2009 were largely trainwrecks which didn't allow us to build on 2008 even though I may argue that Campbell has been the best player on a pretty damn good defense the last few years. Not his fault the QB position has been a disaster.

I'd guess that if the Cards get nothing out of the 6th overall pick (or fail to get mutiple pro bowls out of the first guard drafted in the Top 10 in a generation), and get nothing more out of Minter than four or five years of solid special teams play, Mathieu can go into the Ring of Honor and Ellington could rush for 1000 yards three years out of five, and people are going to think of Keim's first draft as a disaster.

I doubt we get nothing out of Cooper but even assuming that's the case the draft would still be solid. Take a look around, if Badger and Ellington's careers shape up as you say that's a pretty good draft vs the rest of the league considering only under 15% of all players drafted in the NFL ever make a Pro Bowl. We'll have beaten the average at that point. Point is it's really, really hard to project talent in this league. Hit a home run on two guys in a draft and solid singles/doubles on a couple more and you're killing it.

FYI--The Cards 2001 draft featured three Pro Bowlers and a fourth player who started 114 NFL games over 10 NFL seasons, and no one looks at that draft as one of the most successful in franchise history.

That's because 3 of those 4 had that success on other teams. I would argue the scouting department did their jobs but was let down by the management team which isn't surprising considering who was in charge back then.

 

[Krangodnzr]

My, my, my... Aren't we placing a lot of stock in a third and sixth round pick, vs. one guy who got injured, one guy who never plays, one guy who had an inessential surgery rather than start, and one guy who will never play in even a preseason game.

The standard for "pretty decent job" has fallen remarkably low in these parts.

I think we saw enough of Cooper to know that he'll probably be a pretty good player, and Minter did look pretty damn good in the preseason.

If Cooper, Minter, Mathieu and Ellington all become pretty good players, this a very good draft. I think Cooper and Mathieu are the real gems of this draft class, and Ellington can become a multi-faceted offensive weapon.

I've observed three viewpoints on Keim. One believes he deserves a fair share of the blame for failed personnel acquisition over the years, the second camp believes he deserves some but with a mulligan, and the last group views him with a clean slate.

I fall into the second grouping; everyone involved has to have made mistakes for the glaring roster shortfalls, but I think Keim has had some successes and we don't really know how many of the failures are on his plate. It very well could be that he made passionate arguments for taking Adrian Peterson but was overruled by a higher ranking executive (Graves) with a spotty at best football background.

 

[Cheesebeef]

I think we saw enough of Cooper to know that he'll probably be a pretty good player, and Minter did look pretty damn good in the preseason.

If Cooper, Minter, Mathieu and Ellington all become pretty good players, this a very good draft. I think Cooper and Mathieu are the real gems of this draft class, and Ellington can become a multi-faceted offensive weapon.

I've observed three viewpoints on Keim. One believes he deserves a fair share of the blame for failed personnel acquisition over the years, the second camp believes he deserves some but with a mulligan, and the last group views him with a clean slate.

I fall into the second grouping; everyone involved has to have made mistakes for the glaring roster shortfalls, but I think Keim has had some successes and we don't really know how many of the failures are on his plate. It very well could be that he made passionate arguments for taking Adrian Peterson but was overruled by a higher ranking executive (Graves) with a spotty at best football background.

i find myself in the 2nd group. there's been some hits and misses in his first year, but the only thing that REALLY bothers me is how we handled the LT position. there were so many opportunities to improve the LT position and we literally did nothing there.

 

[Cbus cardsfan]

I actually like this year's draft. I think Cooper, Minter, Mathieu, maybe Watford, and Ellington will all be starting next year. I think Okafor and Taylor will be contributors. They don't need to be pro bowlers. They just need to be able to start or contribute to a winning team.

I do agree the Cards 2nd and 3rd round draft hit rate has been beyond pathetic. You need to hit on some but, as I pointed out in the many Kolb traded debates, there is a high failure rate when it comes to 2nd rounders. Over 50% don't have an impact and that's what separates the good from bad teams. The good teams are hitting a good % of their 2nd rounders. The bad team aren't.

Look at the Bengals. They are good now becaue they have started hitting on their 2nd and 3rd rounders. This year they nabbed Bernard. They have also gotten major contributions from Rey Maualuga, Carlos Dunlap, Andy Dalton, Michael Johnson, and Muhammad Sanu as guys selected in the 2nd or 3rd round. Couple that with hitting on 1st rounders like AJ Green and your team becomes good in a hurry.

 

[Krangodnzr]

I actually like this year's draft. I think Cooper, Minter, Mathieu, maybe Watford, and Ellington will all be starting next year. I think Okafor and Taylor will be contributors. They don't need to be pro bowlers. They just need to be able to start or contribute to a winning team.

I do agree the Cards 2nd and 3rd round draft hit rate has been beyond pathetic. You need to hit on some but, as I pointed out in the many Kolb traded debates, there is a high failure rate when it comes to 2nd rounders. Over 50% don't have an impact and that's what separates the good from bad teams. The good teams are hitting a good % of their 2nd rounders. The bad team aren't.

Look at the Bengals. They are good now becaue they have started hitting on their 2nd and 3rd rounders. This year they nabbed Bernard. They have also gotten major contributions from Rey Maualuga, Carlos Dunlap, Andy Dalton, Michael Johnson, and Muhammad Sanu as guys selected in the 2nd or 3rd round. Couple that with hitting on 1st rounders like AJ Green and your team becomes good in a hurry.

Look back to the 2003 draft.

We nabbed three, legitimate first round prospects. That's what is great about the 2nd and 3rd round, there are often times guys that belonged in the first but because of teams drafting for need, they slid.

Is Mathieu a legit first round guy retrospectively? Absolutely.

Is Minter? Hard to say...and that was the pick I was iffy on, especially with a few decent passrushers on the board.

 

[DoTheDew]

My, my, my... Aren't we placing a lot of stock in a third and sixth round pick, vs. one guy who got injured, one guy who never plays, one guy who had an inessential surgery rather than start, and one guy who will never play in even a preseason game.

The standard for "pretty decent job" has fallen remarkably low in these parts.

It's obviously way too premature to call this draft a success. Ellington shows promise but so have hundreds of late round running backs in limited time. Mathieu may be the steal of the 3rd round. No one else has proven anything yet.

 

[Cardiac]

Yes, if you assume that our 3rd and 6th round picks both make a Pro Bowl (for the Cards, assumedly)--which IMO is a reach on both counts, but particularly Ellington's--this draft could be considered successful.

Of course, the Cards got two Pro Bowl talents in the 2008 draft (Campbell and DRC), and people couldn't wait to get rid of Graves and Whis. So go figure.

I'd guess that if the Cards get nothing out of the 6th overall pick (or fail to get mutiple pro bowls out of the first guard drafted in the Top 10 in a generation), and get nothing more out of Minter than four or five years of solid special teams play, Mathieu can go into the Ring of Honor and Ellington could rush for 1000 yards three years out of five, and people are going to think of Keim's first draft as a disaster.

FYI--The Cards 2001 draft featured three Pro Bowlers and a fourth player who started 114 NFL games over 10 NFL seasons, and no one looks at that draft as one of the most successful in franchise history.

Fact check time.

7th overall pick not 6th.

As Mao pointed out; Big, Hill & Vanden Bosch all had their success with other teams.

Are you going on record saying Coop will be a bust and or injury prone?

Already giving up on Minter, Watford and Okafor?

I'm not "all in" on Keim at this point but I like my hole cards and the first card I can see from the flop is pretty darn good as well.

 

[kerouac9]

Fact check time.

7th overall pick not 6th. Fair Enough.

As Mao pointed out; Big, Hill & Vanden Bosch all had their success with other teams. What does this have to do with anything?

Are you going on record saying Coop will be a bust and or injury prone? Nope.

Already giving up on Minter, Watford and Okafor? What does "giving up" mean here? Do I think that Watford will be better than, say, Reggie Wells was during his time here? No. Do I think that Earl Watford will fail to make the roster next year? Probably not.

If Minter is not significantly better than, say, Paris Lenon, that should be viewed as a blown pick. Jury's still out on him, but he wasn't able to supplant Jasper Brinkley for even rotational snaps in the first quarter of the season.

Okafor? Who knows. Him finishing his first contract with the Cards would be successful for him for his draft status.

I'm not "all in" on Keim at this point but I like my hole cards and the first card I can see from the flop is pretty darn good as well.

Shocking.

 

[kerouac9]

What I'll add is that I think I disagree with Keim about how a team is built. He's "reloading" the team (whatever that means), so he hasn't really articulated a strategy, but just "Draft well, fill holes with free agents" isn't really a strategy, because drafting well isn't a sustainable plan.


I like the Bill Polian approach that he used in Indianapolis, and that's essentially identify four to six franchise building blocks, and then support them with draft picks and good player development. You dedicate 60% of your cap to the franchise players, and rely on rookie deals for everyone else, who then leave in free agency. I think that's a sustainable model, but it's not an operative one for this team right now, because we don't have enough franchise-caliber players (Washington, Campbell, Peterson, Fitzgerald...) at impact positions.

Gotta get a quarterback. Jay Cutler 2014?

 

[Mulli]

Cutler? Bah!

 

[crisper57]

Cutler? !

FTFY

 

[Cardiac]

Shocking.

I'll assume this is meant to mean I'm a homer, correct me it that's not the case.

What I'll add is that I think I disagree with Keim about how a team is built. He's "reloading" the team (whatever that means), so he hasn't really articulated a strategy, but just "Draft well, fill holes with free agents" isn't really a strategy, because drafting well isn't a sustainable plan.


I like the Bill Polian approach that he used in Indianapolis, and that's essentially identify four to six franchise building blocks, and then support them with draft picks and good player development. You dedicate 60% of your cap to the franchise players, and rely on rookie deals for everyone else, who then leave in free agency. I think that's a sustainable model, but it's not an operative one for this team right now, because we don't have enough franchise-caliber players (Washington, Campbell, Peterson, Fitzgerald...) at impact positions.

Gotta get a quarterback. Jay Cutler 2014?

I'll need some clarification on the bolded part. I get that every team has misses and busts but aren't there some teams that have a history of drafting better than the NFL avg. If you have research that disputes this then please share. If you don't than why to you bash SK for any of his draft picks???

Polian certainly proved he knew how to build SB squads on two different teams and essentially in two different era's in the NFL.

As you list we do have 4 franchise players but the one missing that can't be missing to be a winning team is the QB. I'm with Mulli, no to Cutler.

Besides FB what position(s) are not worthy of having a franchise player. Most would agree that QB, LT and Sack Artist are at the top of the list. It appears Polian believed WR was also worthy. Had Harrison and also drafter Wayne in rd 1.

Does an ILBer meet the criteria? How about OG? Where does the CB position fall on the list?

 

[kerouac9]

I'll need some clarification on the bolded part. I get that every team has misses and busts but aren't there some teams that have a history of drafting better than the NFL avg. If you have research that disputes this then please share. If you don't than why to you bash SK for any of his draft picks???

Polian certainly proved he knew how to build SB squads on two different teams and essentially in two different era's in the NFL.

As you list we do have 4 franchise players but the one missing that can't be missing to be a winning team is the QB. I'm with Mulli, no to Cutler.

Besides FB what position(s) are not worthy of having a franchise player. Most would agree that QB, LT and Sack Artist are at the top of the list. It appears Polian believed WR was also worthy. Had Harrison and also drafter Wayne in rd 1.

Does an ILBer meet the criteria? How about OG? Where does the CB position fall on the list?

I'm not 100% sure of what the question that you're asking is. I think that a team in the short run (5 years, maybe) can do a better job of drafting than the average, but that in the long run, all teams end up doing about the same drafting and developing talent. Saying "we're going to draft the best players available" every year as your personnel strategy isn't sustainable, because you're naturally going to develop roster holes when you pick the BPA that happens to be at the same position year after year.

I don't think it makes much sense as a general rule to use draft capital and cap space on nose tackle, inside linebacker, safety, guard, center, running back, #2 and #4 cornerback, #2 and #3 WR... and fullback.

I think that your premire positions are QB, Pass rusher, #1 WR, Cornerback, and left tackle, in that order. I think that you can justify spending 40% or more of your cap on just those positions and still maintain a healthy roster for the balance of the team.

I'm not screaming to the rafters on Daryl Washington's extension because it's a smart one. He never has a cap charge over $7.5M, and there's only one season where his hold is that high.

 

[Arizona's Finest]

I just dont get the obessession with holding Kiem accountable for anything before this year. Makes no sense to me even for projection reasons. Many good people work for companies that dont go anywhere because of a poor CEO. Buck stops at the guy making the final decision. Thats the perception AND the reality. Thats how business works.

How anyone can know what Kiem was stumping for or responsible for or not? You can project what you want but not sure its worth a damn anyway what anyone thinks they thinks happened in the 2007 draft room anyway or blah blah blah. Its all conjecture. I have heard K9 write numeorus times the Director of Pro personnel is usually in charge of the last 4 rounds..... like this is some kind of hard and fast rule thats not case by case depending on the player selected, the team in question, or the org structure for decision making.

Makes no sense. Judge him as the current GM plain and simple. Lets debate that. Rest is mental masterbaution. Its going to be proven one way or the other anyway and now we have a full offseason and 8 games to look at. And as I pointed out in my earlier post, from my vantage point he has done a damn good job thus far

And this last piece is my opinion on the previous regime so take it or leave it:

Graves apologists are my favorite. Oh wait no I automatically disqualify you as a fool the minute I read anything leaning in that direction. There are many topics where there is a gray area. This is not one of them. Anyone who paid attention to this team for the last 10 years should know better. He was the GM. Things have dramatcally improved since in pretty much everyway since he left and will continue too IMO.

 

[Arizona's Finest]

My opinion that based on educated guesses (which I readily admit instead of preaching to others like its the gospel and accepted fact) the people who were making the picks the prior 5 years the First voice was Graves, then Wiz/Grimm, and then maybe Kiem but even that I am not sure. Scouts and even Directors of Pro Personnel give their opinions/recomemndations. NOT make the ultimate decision. I do think guys like Toler, DRC, and Hightower (all good picks IMO) were guys Kiem pushed but even then thats just an educated guess because of his fondness of small school guys and athletes. Bad Personnel decisions was ultimately Wiz's undoing IMO as well.

But again its all subjective. So to me Ill just judge Kiem from when i KNOW he had the final decision. And again so far so good.

 

[Totally_Red]

My opinion that based on educated guesses (which I readily admit instead of preaching to others like its the gospel and accepted fact) the people who were making the picks the prior 5 years the First voice was Graves, then Wiz/Grimm, and then maybe Kiem but even that I am not sure. Scouts and even Directors of Pro Personnel give their opinions/recomemndations. NOT make the ultimate decision. I do think guys like Toler, DRC, and Hightower (all good picks IMO) were guys Kiem pushed but even then thats just an educated guess because of his fondness of small school guys and athletes. Bad Personnel decisions was ultimately Wiz's undoing IMO as well.

But again its all subjective. So to me Ill just judge Kiem from when i KNOW he had the final decision. And again so far so good.

I agree with this.

IMO, the biggest failure of the previous regime, besides the failure to replace Kurt Warner, was the amount spent on free agents who either were injury-prone or just weren't very good. The list goes on and on over the Whis-Graves years.
In fairness, I also don't think the scouting department was very good, and that has been addressed over the last 2-3 years.
But you can't spend significant money and salary cap space on Terrence Holt, Al Johnson, Travis Laboy, Adam Snyder, etcetera and expect to have a good roster.

 

[ASUCHRIS]

Interesting discussion. While Keim isn't entirely culpable for our draft failures of late, it's impossible to give him no blame.

We've tended to focus/draft secondary positions at the cost of the positions that actually matter.

I'm ok with Keim for the time being, but time to make some good acquisitions at the positions that determine success - QB/LT/pass rusher. We've been awful at finding talent at these positions, and can't be taken seriously until they are addressed.

 

[Arizona's Finest]

Interesting discussion. While Keim isn't entirely culpable for our draft failures of late, it's impossible to give him no blame.

We've tended to focus/draft secondary positions at the cost of the positions that actually matter.

I'm ok with Keim for the time being, but time to make some good acquisitions at the positions that determine success - QB/LT/pass rusher. We've been awful at finding talent at these positions, and can't be taken seriously until they are addressed.

See this I am okay with. We have such a reactionary bias that we have to have a resolute opinion one way or the other if someone is a bum or someone is a God just 6 months into them having the actual job.

To me the positions you mentioned will define Kiems tenure as GM and he should have another season or 2 to put in work there.

But if you ask me am I confident and comfortable that he is the guy making those decisions? Absolutely I am.

 

[Arizona's Finest]

Interesting discussion. While Keim isn't entirely culpable for our draft failures of late, it's impossible to give him no blame.

We've tended to focus/draft secondary positions at the cost of the positions that actually matter.

I'm ok with Keim for the time being, but time to make some good acquisitions at the positions that determine success - QB/LT/pass rusher. We've been awful at finding talent at these positions, and can't be taken seriously until they are addressed.

OT: I almost feel bad for ASU and the defection of Patterson. Any other ASU alums concerned that Your boy Graham has multiple levels of "Dream Jobs?"

I know this is for another forum but wanted to get ASUChris's take!