Peter King: Arizona Owns 2024

[RON_IN_OC]

His contract would be a steal for the team receiving him. 38, 32, 42, 36, and then 46 in his age 31 year where they could cut him.

Isn't it only a steal if he's playing up to, or exceeding, expectations? If he does that, then there's no reason to trade him, right?

 

[Krangodnzr]

Personally I have the Commanders down for the #1 pick.

Feels like they are tanking with Howell/Brissett at QB. They don't have a bad roster but those guys aren't getting you many wins. Plus they have the Eagles, Giants and Cowboys in division.

I think the Commanders win between 5-8 games, partially because I believe in the NFC East. I think the Giants come back to earth, the Cowboys have their typical down year after a winning one, and the Eagles just don't have the talent they had last year.

Rams are going to suck too. The question is whether they suck worse than us. But also feels like they are tanking for QB.

The Rams will surprise...when they should suck. Aaron Donald guarantees five wins on his own. And McVay is a coach that will get you a few wins on his own.

1. Bucs
2. Texans
3. Packers
4. Cardinals
5. Raiders
6. Commanders
7. Patriots
8. Colts
9. Titans
10. Rams

The Bucs are going to really suck. Subpar passing game. Subpar running game. Defense is bottom halfish at this point.

I don't believe in Stroud. And Anderson isn't going to be the defensive savior some are prognosticating. He's the next Justin Houston. He'll bee pretty good for a long time with a few really good seasons.

Jordan Love is going to suck. He's going to be a bottom three starter. Take that to the bank. But in typical Packers fashion, they will be in range to get a franchise QB right when the other one is gone.

Cards at 6 comes with a huge asterix because it depends when Kyler returns and how he is when he returns.

Cardinals at four. The team will win very few games with Murray out and will show some glimpses of improvement once he gets back. I think this experience will change Murray for the better.

There is a timeline where the Cards aren't awful. A good Kyler with Hopkins, Brown, Rondale, Ertz, Wilson, McBride and Dortch is a potent offense. But even then there's question marks over the coaching and scheme. Team could be anything from 3-14 to 7-10. Too many unknown factors.

I agree overall that this group isn't bad at all.

 

[gmabel830]

He would when you trade him and all the signing bonus goes against the Cardinals cap. He'd be very affordable.

I posted the numbers in another thread - it's like $32-42M a year in real cash paid out . That's not unaffordable with today's QB numbers, but is another QB needy team going to pay Kyler that after we give up on him vs taking a chance on a 1st round QB making a fraction of that?

 

[Krangodnzr]

I posted the numbers in another thread - it's like $32-42M a year in real cash paid out . That's not unaffordable with today's QB numbers, but is another QB needy team going to pay Kyler that after we give up on him vs taking a chance on a 1st round QB making a fraction of that?

Murray does have proven production. Teams that are almost playoff teams that think QB is the last spot they need would jump all over Murray.

 

[BooksOrangePlanet]

Murray does have proven production. Teams that are almost playoff teams that think QB is the last spot they need would jump all over Murray.

Might I ask who those teams would be?

 

[kerouac9]

Might I ask who those teams would be?

Minnesota and Dallas would be compelling landing spots for Kyler Murray in 2024-25 if someone wants him. Also potentially Tennessee and Detroit. Probably Washington also.

Any team with 7-10 wins but a quarterback in the bottom half of the NFL would be deeply improved by adding Kyler Murray to their offense.

 

[Krangodnzr]

Might I ask who those teams would be?

Commanders, Raiders, Patriots, Titans, Vikings, Falcons, and a few others.

Not all of these teams are playoff teams, but they mostly won't be bad enough to get a top guy.

 

[BooksOrangePlanet]

Minnesota and Dallas would be compelling landing spots for Kyler Murray in 2024-25 if someone wants him. Also potentially Tennessee and Detroit. Probably Washington also.

Any team with 7-10 wins but a quarterback in the bottom half of the NFL would be deeply improved by adding Kyler Murray to their offense.

NFC is so desperate for QBs right now it's crazy but idk - the Kyler Murray route would be pretty expensive both financially and draft wise

 

[Krangodnzr]

Minnesota and Dallas would be compelling landing spots for Kyler Murray in 2024-25 if someone wants him. Also potentially Tennessee and Detroit. Probably Washington also.

Any team with 7-10 wins but a quarterback in the bottom half of the NFL would be deeply improved by adding Kyler Murray to their offense.

I think anyone who discounts the fact that other teams probably blame the Cardinals for most of Murray's struggles are fooling themselves.

If the Cardinals  could trade Murray right now, I bet they'd get a substantial trade package for him. Probably at least 2 1st round picks, 2 2nd round picks would just be the start of negotiations.

 

[Krangodnzr]

NFC is so desperate for QBs right now it's crazy but idk the Kyler Murray route would be pretty expensive both financially and draft wise

A good QB is worth probably 4-5 premium draft picks.

 

[kerouac9]

NFC is so desperate for QBs right now it's crazy but idk - the Kyler Murray route would be pretty expensive both financially and draft wise

I understand that -- teams that are jumping into a rebuild aren't going to want Kyler Murray. But in 2024 Kyler's cap number for a traded team should be $37 million. In 2025 it's $29.9 million.

Those are big numbers in a vacuum. But the 2025 number is lower than Daniel Jones.

 

[Stout]

I think anyone who discounts the fact that other teams probably blame the Cardinals for most of Murray's struggles are fooling themselves.

If the Cardinals  could trade Murray right now, I bet they'd get a substantial trade package for him. Probably at least 2 1st round picks, 2 2nd round picks would just be the start of negotiations.

Absolutely right.

 

[BooksOrangePlanet]

I understand that -- teams that are jumping into a rebuild aren't going to want Kyler Murray. But in 2024 Kyler's cap number for a traded team should be $37 million. In 2025 it's $29.9 million.

Those are big numbers in a vacuum. But the 2025 number is lower than Daniel Jones.

Plus a couple first rounders with extra fixins

 

[kerouac9]

I think anyone who discounts the fact that other teams probably blame the Cardinals for most of Murray's struggles are fooling themselves.

If the Cardinals  could trade Murray right now, I bet they'd get a substantial trade package for him. Probably at least 2 1st round picks, 2 2nd round picks would just be the start of negotiations.

I think the population of teams that would be interested in Kyler Murray is smaller than you think, but I agree that a lot of teams who are already interested in him aren't discouraged because the organization has been a mess.

That said, teams that were concerned about his size or whatever probably haven't erased where they crossed his name out.

I think you're way off base on trade comp, if only because a Trey Lance-type deal is (maybe) only available when it's attached to a rookie contract that allows you to build a veteran team to support the prospect. Kyler on a pretty fairly expensive veteran deal might not reap those kind of rewards.

Of course, all you need is a bad organization to fall in love with him, but he doesn't have the resume of DangeRuss.

 

[BritCard]

I think the Commanders win between 5-8 games, partially because I believe in the NFC East. I think the Giants come back to earth, the Cowboys have their typical down year after a winning one, and the Eagles just don't have the talent they had last year.

The Rams will surprise...when they should suck. Aaron Donald guarantees five wins on his own. And McVay is a coach that will get you a few wins on his own.

The Bucs are going to really suck. Subpar passing game. Subpar running game. Defense is bottom halfish at this point.

I don't believe in Stroud. And Anderson isn't going to be the defensive savior some are prognosticating. He's the next Justin Houston. He'll bee pretty good for a long time with a few really good seasons.

Jordan Love is going to suck. He's going to be a bottom three starter. Take that to the bank. But in typical Packers fashion, they will be in range to get a franchise QB right when the other one is gone.

Cardinals at four. The team will win very few games with Murray out and will show some glimpses of improvement once he gets back. I think this experience will change Murray for the better.

I agree overall that this group isn't bad at all.

I missed the Bears. The Bears are likely a top 10 team again, really depends on how the Packers are.

 

[BritCard]

Do people really think Kyler would get much in a trade?

If I'm a GM I'm thinking "He has a losing record, he's been through a HC that tried to recruit him in college and drafted him #1 and couldn't make that work. He's had a 2nd head coach that was all about making him great and that didn't work. There's all these negative stories about him and the Cardinals, the CARDINALS, want to move on from him. How good can he be?"

I think it's dreamland. I'd be super wary of trading anything more than a bag of cheetos. Russ got the Seahawks a pot of gold because he was proven. He won a Superbowl and went to another. He had an insanely positive winning record.

Why would anyone look at Kyler and think "I need some of this guy with 6 years in the league that still has a losing record"?

 

[Garthshort]

false

Why?

 

[Garthshort]

Do people really think Kyler would get much in a trade?

If I'm a GM I'm thinking "He has a losing record, he's been through a HC that tried to recruit him in college and drafted him #1 and couldn't make that work. He's had a 2nd head coach that was all about making him great and that didn't work. There's all these negative stories about him and the Cardinals, the CARDINALS, want to move on from him. How good can he be?"

I think it's dreamland. I'd be super wary of trading anything more than a bag of cheetos. Russ got the Seahawks a pot of gold because he was proven. He won a Superbowl and went to another. He had an insanely positive winning record.

Why would anyone look at Kyler and think "I need some of this guy with 6 years in the league that still has a losing record"?

I might be wrong, but I thought he won Offensive Rookie of the Year. I do remember that when he was drafted we had the League's worst record.

 

[Krangodnzr]

I think the population of teams that would be interested in Kyler Murray is smaller than you think, but I agree that a lot of teams who are already interested in him aren't discouraged because the organization has been a mess.

That said, teams that were concerned about his size or whatever probably haven't erased where they crossed his name out.

I think you're way off base on trade comp, if only because a Trey Lance-type deal is (maybe) only available when it's attached to a rookie contract that allows you to build a veteran team to support the prospect. Kyler on a pretty fairly expensive veteran deal might not reap those kind of rewards.

Of course, all you need is a bad organization to fall in love with him, but he doesn't have the resume of DangeRuss.

Teams will look at how young Murray still is and think he's still barely scratching the surface of what he can do. I absolutely think he'd get a big package, maybe not Russ Wilson level, but close.

 

[Krangodnzr]

Do people really think Kyler would get much in a trade?

If I'm a GM I'm thinking "He has a losing record, he's been through a HC that tried to recruit him in college and drafted him #1 and couldn't make that work. He's had a 2nd head coach that was all about making him great and that didn't work. There's all these negative stories about him and the Cardinals, the CARDINALS, want to move on from him. How good can he be?"

Bro, the Cardinals have had many of our castoffs go elsewhere and succeed. There is a long track record going back to the St. Louis Cardinals.

I think it's dreamland. I'd be super wary of trading anything more than a bag of cheetos. Russ got the Seahawks a pot of gold because he was proven. He won a Superbowl and went to another. He had an insanely positive winning record.

Right and he played with a team with a great, winning culture. He won a Super Bowl where they probably would have won even if he didn't complete a pass in that game.

Why would anyone look at Kyler and think "I need some of this guy with 6 years in the league that still has a losing record"?

Because the Cardinals.

 

[Weenus O'Baggins]

It's funny because I always say the real NFL is nothing like Madden when it comes to GMing and yet Monti basically pulled off Madden type future deals. It's the kind of crap I do in franchise mode.

 

[Krangodnzr]

It's funny because I always say the real NFL is nothing like Madden when it comes to GMing and yet Monti basically pulled off Madden type future deals. It's the kind of crap I do in franchise mode.

Heh, I always sign free agents and then trade them for picks.

 

[Chopper0080]

Isn't it only a steal if he's playing up to, or exceeding, expectations? If he does that, then there's no reason to trade him, right?

Kind of. IF Caleb Williams is a top QB prospect, you don't pass on acquiring him to keep Derek Carr or Dak Prescott. If Kyler plays OK but not spectacular, a team like the Commanders could see the advantages of having Kyler on a 38 mil deal. Atlanta may be done with the Desmond Ridder experiment. Looking like a top 16 QB vs a top 5 QB is a big difference but both are better than having a bottom 10 QB.

 

[Chopper0080]

I think the population of teams that would be interested in Kyler Murray is smaller than you think, but I agree that a lot of teams who are already interested in him aren't discouraged because the organization has been a mess.

That said, teams that were concerned about his size or whatever probably haven't erased where they crossed his name out.

I think you're way off base on trade comp, if only because a Trey Lance-type deal is (maybe) only available when it's attached to a rookie contract that allows you to build a veteran team to support the prospect. Kyler on a pretty fairly expensive veteran deal might not reap those kind of rewards.

Of course, all you need is a bad organization to fall in love with him, but he doesn't have the resume of DangeRuss.

Agree. A 2nd and 4th are far more likely of a return and would still be great. I believe it would look similar to our trading of the 3rd pick in this draft. Maybe you get a great offer because of a lot of interest, but regardless you should be able to get something.

 

[Chopper0080]

Why?

I answered it in a post above but his contract would already be affordable for the team trading for him. No need to re-do the deal.