K9's Offseason Plan 1.0 (including Top 5 mock draft)

kerouac9

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Assumptions:

1. CBA doesn't get resolved before the draft, so no free agency to fill holes.
2. The Huddle Report Player Value Rankings for draft assumptions. No one above our choice is available (after my Top 5 mock)
3. I don't forecast trades, because they're unpredictable, but I'll mention when they're possible.

Re-signings/extensions before CBA expiration:

1. Lyle Sendlein, OC. 4 years, $10 million, $4 million guaranteed. He should jump at this deal after making the NFL minimum for four seasons. Good player with experience even if he has to battle for a starting job.

2. Deuce Lutui, RG. 6 years, $30 million, $10 million guaranteed. He's a B-plus lineman, and the best in our unit. I'd include $500K workout bonuses every season to make sure that he's in the program and 2010's offseason doesn't happen again.

3. Levi Brown, LT. 6 years, $50 million, $18 million guaranteed. It's not what it seems, though. The Cards essentially guarantee the next two years of Brown's contract (which should be in the ballpark of $16-18 million) and have $5 million or so salaries the rest of the contract. Brown hasn't played up to his draft position, but he's been healthy and you can always move him back to the right side.

NFL DRAFT
PANTHERS: DaQuan Bowers, DE, Clemson. The Panthers know what a marquee defensive end can do for a franchise.
BRONCOS: Nick Fairley, DT, Auburn. The MVP of the National Championship game gives the Broncos a playmaker as they transition (back) to a 4-3 defense.
BILLS: Blaine Gabbert, QB, Mizzou. Building the defense doesn't sell tickets in Buffalo or Toronto. Hope sells tickets. Gabbert has the arm strength to push the ball through the winds upstate New York.
BENGALS: Robert Quinn, DE, North Carolina. The Bengals might like to trade out of this spot. The Bengals defense has some continuity, but they lack a premier pass rush specialist who can play every down. Surprisingly, the Bengals take a character risk on a player. :)

1 (5). Patrick Peterson, CB, LSU. Cards take BPA here to help push Michael Adams down the depth chart and provide competition with both Greg Toler and DRC. Peterson is a special player.
2 (38). DE/OLB Jeremy Beal, Oklahoma. Cards reach a little bit with OT and OG prospects on the board, but Beal has great intensity and football instincts that will help spell both OLB positions. He's not a pass rushing demon, though.
3 (69). Marcus Cannon, OT/OG, TCU. Cards apparently like Horned Frogs. Cannon has good size and will take the Brandon Keith/Herman Johnson role of being trained inside before moving to tackle.
4 (102). Mason Foster, LB, Washington. The 6'2", 244 lbs. Foster will provide a physical presence on special teams and a developmental thumper at the SILB position.
5 (133). Casey Matthews, LB, Oregon. If you could put Matthews's mind in Daryl Washington's body, you'd have a perrennial Pro Bowl linebacker. Matthews will be a sub player and a demon on special teams.
6A (166). Weslye Saunders, TE, South Carolina. Something has to be done at the tight end position. At 6'5", 280 lbs., Saunders will be the 6th offensive lineman (5th if you don't count Brandon Keith) that the Cards seem to want at the position.
6B (179). Chase Beeler, OC, Stanford. Bigger player at the position, and you know he's smart.

2011 NFL Free Agency

Marc Bulger, QB (Ravens). Coach Whis gets the guy he wanted last summer.

Alex Smith, QB (49ers). Smith and Bulger will go into camp with an open competition.

Brian Leonard, FB (Bengals). Leonard will compete for the starting FB job, but will more likely replace Jason Wright's veteran presence in the RB corps.

Brad Smith, WR (Jets). Smith can play the slot WR role and be the kind of short-yardage outlet that Anquan Boldin was for a number of Arizona Quarterbacks over the years.

Manny Lawson, OLB (49ers). Lawson failed to build on the 6.5 sacks he recorded in 2009, but he's is a discounted veteran who will be able to play in the base defense while O'Brien Schofield hones his pass rush techniques. Lawson is excellent in coverage (6 passes defensed, 1 INT in 2010)
 

Mulli

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Not unreasonable, but aren't you concerned about not adding a star OLB?
 

RugbyMuffin

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Great write up.

I would be extremely excited, and pleased if the Cardinals land Patrick Peterson at #5.
 

Gee!

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Marc Bulger, QB (Ravens). Coach Whis gets the guy he wanted last summer.

Alex Smith, QB (49ers). Smith and Bulger will go into camp with an open competition.

:barf:

I hope your wrong because both of those guys suckty suck suck..
 
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kerouac9

kerouac9

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Not unreasonable, but aren't you concerned about not adding a star OLB?

Meh. I'm not going to pull out the bong and say that we're going to get LaMarr Woodley. I'm interested in Kamerion Wimbley, but I don't think that he's a star OLB. I think you can get 8 sacks from Lawson and another 6-8 from Schofield.

I don't think that Wimbley reaches the open market, and if he does he'll be the first OLB signed, and the Cards don't roll like that.
 

football karma

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pretty rational -- both in the top 5 as well as with who the Cards sign in free agency

I suspect though that it will be one of Bulger or Smith -- as soon as you sign one of them, the other may seek opportunities elsewhere.

While CB may not be a pressing need --- I love the idea of adding an elite prospect at corner with excellent size and speed. He is also a top notch return guy --- (as an aside, my wife was sitting watching the Sugar Bowl with me. Peterson returned a kickoff, taking the ball along the right sideline and immediately going directly left across the field. He got all the way across and turned upfield for a nice return. My wife says "wow, he is fast". The speed he had jumped off the screen at you.)

The Jets clogged up the Pats lethal passing attack by letting their corners go 1 on 1 on the outside, and letting the other 5 defenders concentrate on the middle of the field. Having Peterson would allow the Cardinals to play that kind of coverage.
 

football karma

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Lawson can be that guy, IMO.

I think Lawson can be good, not sure about great.

Calvin Pace might be a pretty good comparison -- but this year it seems there are a few of that kind of player available, whereas when Calvin hit UFA, he was the only one. Thus-- probably can be had for a decent price (which means $6-7mm a year)
 

Mulli

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Okay, I guess people would be satisfied with adding Manny Lawson to bolster the pass rush from the outside. I might be able to be convinced of that, since I thought Joey Porter has something left.
 

football karma

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finally -- my only beef with the draft is that in the 3rd, there likely will be a pretty good TE prospect available: Luke Stocker of Tennessee is my fav.

Cannon just seems like a carbon copy of other linemen the Cards have drafted: physically imposing specimen with suspect feet.
 

Totally_Red

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Great write up.

I would be extremely excited, and pleased if the Cardinals land Patrick Peterson at #5.

ditto! If Peterson has leadership ability he'd be a solid addition IMO. The Cardinals desperately need LEADERSHIP and IMO they don't have much on either side of the ball right now.

Am I desperate for the second coming of Aeneas Williams? I plead guilty. If Peterson can become that, he would be well worth the 5th pick IMO.


http://recruiting.scout.com/a.z?s=73&p=8&c=1&nid=2930957
 

ASUCHRIS

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Extending Levi?

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Other than that, seems like a pretty realistic scenario. Underwhelming, but realistic. Should make us a 6 or 7 win team. Whoopie!
 

Reddog

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Good job. I would add a good FA TE. There a re a couple out there this year.
 

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Well done K-9-----this is more than likely how our off-season will proceed. With respect to our O-line, I agree with you that while we have some talent there, we have lacked productivity. Keeping the talent is crucial in my opinion, even though we don't have a coaching staff to take advantage of the talent. That can eventually change. I really like the prospect of taking the Stanford Center. While Sendlein has been ok, he has not been that anchor that every elite line is built around. Maybe this guy will be that player.

Your entire process is well thought out, and well constructed. I really like your selection of the CB at #5. We missed out on McCourty last year, and he worked out great for the Pats. I believe that this kid will force DRC to begin using his head, or be relegated to the bench. If he uses his head, we get a LOT better. If not, we get a little better, because this kid will tackle and keep his head in the game. DRC looked so good only because with Hood and then McFadden opposite him, no one was willing to throw at him. He never really earned that respect because of his play, (only because of his potential). Having Toler opposite him has exposed him, (and may be why Toler was held out of the lineup for so long before getting a chance to start).

I like the idea of bring in two vet QB's, though I am not so sure that we could get both to come in. Either would be a step above where we are right now, and both are capable to hold the fort until we develop some youth.

2011 will bring us a very tough schedule, and 8-8 will be very hard to achieve. Your plan would at least give us a reasonable chance to do so.
 

Lomax to Green 84

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I like the plan! Peterson is as close to a sure thing as there is in the draft. I also like the 2 quarterback plan. Alex Smith has some intriguing qualities that may appeal to Whisenhunt. I remember back in 05, there were NFL people who said that Smith was the most intelligent quarterback they had ever evaluated.

Excellent overall plan!
 

Crazy Canuck

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Nice work, K-9.

The issue, as you point out, is the likelihood of FA following the draft, and how this will effect the #5 pick.

If Bulger is the QB target, I'm still keen on a QB at #5.

If it were Smith, who I believe still has a future, I'd go with BPA.

But... there's just no way of knowing at this moment.
 

TJ

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We have one of the worst o-lines in the league and we're gonna re-sign/extend three of the five starters? Including Levi Brown?! Anything less than cutting him during the offseason is a disappointment
 
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kerouac9

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I'm the guy who advocated for Gronkowski, Gresham, and Heath Miller for the Cards over the years. I understand your frustration with the TE position. But it's become pretty clear to me that the position is not a priority for this team. Thinking/hoping that we'll finally get an above-average TE is just not going to happen. I'm not going to get my panties in a bunch about it.

It's especially not going to be a lightweight like Luke Stocker. 6'6", 240 lbs? There's no way. Heath Miller is 6'5", 256. Jason Witten is 6'6", 263. There's no chance we're going to draft a receiving TE early in the draft.

Jim Dray is 6'5", 255, and I wouldn't be surprised if we asked him to gain weight in the offseason.

Nice work, K-9.

The issue, as you point out, is the likelihood of FA following the draft, and how this will effect the #5 pick.

If Bulger is the QB target, I'm still keen on a QB at #5.

If it were Smith, who I believe still has a future, I'd go with BPA.

But... there's just no way of knowing at this moment.

I'm just not high on this QB class. I thought about Pat Devlin in the 3rd, who I think will be an interesting prospect. You know that I love Cam Newton. But Peterson isn't a "settle for a sure thing" kind of player. I'm tired of settling for a position with a Top 5 pick.
 

Mulli

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Hey, K9, my apologies for hi-jacking the thread (temporarily) but what do you like about Cam Newton that you didn't like about Sam Bradford?

Back to thread, do you see Beal developing into something more than depth at OLB?
 

Cheesebeef

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We have one of the worst o-lines in the league and we're gonna re-sign/extend three of the five starters? Including Levi Brown?! Anything less than cutting him during the offseason is a disappointment

i'm lukewarm on lyle, think deuce should get a deal but i'm with ya for the most part on Brown. extending him makes zero sense to me.

the rest of the off-season i could see happening... although going into next year with Bulger as our starting QB makes me happy for one reason and one reason only... it'll get us that much closer to Andrew Luck because we WILL suck ass with Bulger as our QB.
 
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kerouac9

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Hey, K9, my apologies for hi-jacking the thread (temporarily) but what do you like about Cam Newton that you didn't like about Sam Bradford?

Back to thread, do you see Beal developing into something more than depth at OLB?

***not hijacking thread***

I just think that Cam Newton brings something unique to the team that drafts him that is valuable. I think that he's a great leader on the field and that his mechanics aren't as messy as people here suggest. I think that his mobility is something that is going to transfer to the next level to the offensive coaches who can use it right, and I think that he has short, intermediate, and deep touch and accuracy that can succeed at the next level (it's the accuracy that worries me about John Skelton for the long term). As I've said before, taking a chance on Cam Newton is taking a chance that he'll develop into a transcendent talent--a faster Ben Roethlisberger whose team will rally around and look to as a leader--a more polished Vince Young. At #5 overall, the downside risk of that chance is a little too high for me.

I worried about Bradford's durability at the NFL level (largely) and whether his productivity would transfer out of the spread offense and playing with real competition. Have those reservations been totally dismissed by now? He certainly made his teammates better. But he had a 76.5 QB rating as a rookie, and FootballOutsiders had him rated below Alex Smith in their deep rankings. I think that Bradford can be a very good quarterback in the mold of (but not the productivity of) Peyton Manning.

***end not hijacked thread***

If I'm spending a 2nd round pick on a player, I expect him to be an above-average player within two years if he's not a QB. I think that Beal will sub for Clark Haggans as a rookie and then compete for the starting job with Will Davis his second season. Do I think he'll be a 15-sack player? I don't know if you can say that with any assurance. But I have high hopes for O'Brien Schofield's development in his second season.
 

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