Isaiah Simmons and the 5th year option

[Stout]

I didn’t say that. We’ve had this debate repeatedly. Look at your point, you gotta go back over 20 years to where positional value is much different to what it is now. You’ve done this verbatim. The Mike Webster mention is funny cause positional value obviously wasn’t a thing & he wasn’t even drafted in the first round. Recent RBs like Barkley & Elliot were perceived as “Hall of Fame talents” coming out, but Elliot might be washed out of the league before 30 & Barkley obviously hasn’t consistent lived up to his draft billing.

lol No, those were just the first players that popped into my head. There are plenty of non-premium position players we can point at now and say "Damn, that would've been a smart top 10 pick!" You've also done this verbatim, because there are clearly HoF talents at non-premium positions that would doubtless warrant a top 10 selection. Would you take a Travis Kelce in the top 10 of the draft? I get that evaluation isn't 100 percent, and that preference should absolutely be on premium positions, but a never stance just limits the talent pool and would be really dumb stance for a GM.

 

[Chopper0080]

Round 1 is a bit broad because there is a vast difference between pick 5 and pick 25 but in the top 10 teams should only be drafting OT, WR, QB, Edge, DT or CB.

Never TE, RB, LB, IOL, S.

To even break into the top 15 they would need to be a special talent.

A BritCard "W" here.

 

[Chopper0080]

I disagree with CB still being a premium position nowadays though. Position is way too volatile to invest a premium pick on.

I disagree in this regard. The scarcity of quality CBs in college football makes it more valuable than less. The important part is scouting the difference in playing CB at the college level vs NFL level. That is where the volatility comes in IMO.

 

[Chopper0080]

Might be true with WR also. Plenty of good wideouts come from the second day of the draft

I agree with this. Special players are special players but the sheer number of talented athletes who play WR in college now is at an all time high. If you can teach college WRs how to be pro WRs, you can find them all over the NFL draft.

Now, exceptions can be made for unique talents. But for guys like Jerry Jeudy, 5'11 4.45, those guys are a dime a dozen.

 

[kerouac9]

I disagree in this regard. The scarcity of quality CBs in college football makes it more valuable than less. The important part is scouting the difference in playing CB at the college level vs NFL level. That is where the volatility comes in IMO.

I think that it's relatively easy to find mediocre CBs but it's really, really hard to find elite cover corners. The signal from the media is that you keep drafting cover corner prospects high until you hit one. That's why guys like Witherspoon and Gonzalez were projected as top 8 picks.

I think the NFL has figured out that you can run out three or for mid cornerbacks and be okay if your safeties are good and you can get after the quarterback. Mid corners are getting paid pretty well.

But the next Sauce Gardner doesn't come along every day. Not even every year. So drafting the highest-rated corner and assuming he's going to be Patrick Peterson or Gardner is kind of a fool's errand.

 

[Chopper0080]

lol No, those were just the first players that popped into my head. There are plenty of non-premium position players we can point at now and say "Damn, that would've been a smart top 10 pick!" You've also done this verbatim, because there are clearly HoF talents at non-premium positions that would doubtless warrant a top 10 selection. Would you take a Travis Kelce in the top 10 of the draft? I get that evaluation isn't 100 percent, and that preference should absolutely be on premium positions, but a never stance just limits the talent pool and would be really dumb stance for a GM.

When you look at positional savings on the 5th year option, contracts in general over the first 4 seasons, and scarcity of replacement level players, you are absolutely wrong. Premium positions are getting more valuable by the day and passing on them for IOL, RB, TE, S, off-ball LB is putting yourself at even more of a disadvanatage.

 

[BritCard]

I think that it's relatively easy to find mediocre CBs but it's really, really hard to find elite cover corners. The signal from the media is that you keep drafting cover corner prospects high until you hit one. That's why guys like Witherspoon and Gonzalez were projected as top 8 picks.

I think the NFL has figured out that you can run out three or for mid cornerbacks and be okay if your safeties are good and you can get after the quarterback. Mid corners are getting paid pretty well.

But the next Sauce Gardner doesn't come along every day. Not even every year. So drafting the highest-rated corner and assuming he's going to be Patrick Peterson or Gardner is kind of a fool's errand.

I think you can flip this for @Chopper0080 WR post above.

I think it's fairly easy to find WR's in rounds 2 and 3 that will get you close to 1000 yards. Guys like Kirk, Sutton etc with the odd gem like McLaurin.

But if you want a high % shot at the WR version of Sauce gardner you really need to shop in the top 10, like with Jamar Chase.

 

[Chopper0080]

I think that it's relatively easy to find mediocre CBs but it's really, really hard to find elite cover corners. The signal from the media is that you keep drafting cover corner prospects high until you hit one. That's why guys like Witherspoon and Gonzalez were projected as top 8 picks.

I think the NFL has figured out that you can run out three or for mid cornerbacks and be okay if your safeties are good and you can get after the quarterback. Mid corners are getting paid pretty well.

But the next Sauce Gardner doesn't come along every day. Not even every year. So drafting the highest-rated corner and assuming he's going to be Patrick Peterson or Gardner is kind of a fool's errand.

I don't disagree with this and I absolutely agree that I would rather have a top front 4/5 than back 4/5.

 

[BritCard]

When you look at positional savings on the 5th year option, contracts in general over the first 4 seasons, and scarcity of replacement level players, you are absolutely wrong. Premium positions are getting more valuable by the day and passing on them for IOL, RB, TE, S, off-ball LB is putting yourself at even more of a disadvanatage.

You only have to look at the Eagles. They prioritise OL, DL, CB, WR every draft and make do at LB, S, TE, RB etc with lower round picks and value FA pickups.

 

[Chopper0080]

I think you can flip this for @Chopper0080 WR post above.

I think it's fairly easy to find WR's in rounds 2 and 3 that will get you close to 1000 yards. Guys like Kirk, Sutton etc with the odd gem like McLaurin.

But if you want a high % shot at the WR version of Sauce gardner you really need to shop in the top 10, like with Jamar Chase.

I would agree that special players are special and those players at WR and CB are ok to take in the top 10. I just wouldn't take highly productive players who are not also size/speed freaks.

 

[Chopper0080]

You only have to look at the Eagles. They prioritise OL, DL, CB, WR every draft and make do at LB, S, TE, RB etc with lower round picks and value FA pickups.

What I have liked most about the Patriots and Eagles over the years is their comfort in having veteran defensive backs. I believe that makes a huge difference.

 

[Stout]

When you look at positional savings on the 5th year option, contracts in general over the first 4 seasons, and scarcity of replacement level players, you are absolutely wrong. Premium positions are getting more valuable by the day and passing on them for IOL, RB, TE, S, off-ball LB is putting yourself at even more of a disadvanatage.

I agree with you there. I disagree with the absurd stonewall "never" label. There are always (excepting kicker, punter, LS) going to be exceptions to the rule. I never want our GM to close his eyes to possibilities.

 

[BritCard]

I agree with you there. I disagree with the absurd stonewall "never" label. There are always (excepting kicker, punter, LS) going to be exceptions to the rule. I never want our GM to close his eyes to possibilities.

But it's always a loss. If you draft a 9 TE over a 9 OT you lost. If you draft a 9 LB over a 9 WR you lost. That linebacker can turn out to be Ray Lewis but if the WR is Jerry Rice you lost.

The positions are just less valuable.

 

[Stout]

But it's always a loss. If you draft a 9 TE over a 9 OT you lost. If you draft a 9 LB over a 9 WR you lost. That linebacker can turn out to be Ray Lewis but if the WR is Jerry Rice you lost.

The positions are just less valuable.

So Kelce is worse than, say, an Okudah, who isn't even with the Lions any longer? You're equating great players to great players. If the linebacker is Ray Lewis but the WR is Isabella, you're rationale is you still take Isabella. That's why absolutes are usually bad. Never say never, you know?

 

[Chopper0080]

I agree with you there. I disagree with the absurd stonewall "never" label. There are always (excepting kicker, punter, LS) going to be exceptions to the rule. I never want our GM to close his eyes to possibilities.

My counter would be that a team should find a way to trade back if they find themselves in that situation.

The 2018 draft is a perfect example of this. Saquon, Quenton Nelson, Roquan Smith all went top 10 and those teams probably would have benefited more from McGlinchey, Vea, Payne, Kolton Miller, or Jaire Alexander who went after them but at premium positions.

 

[Krangodnzr]

I would agree that special players are special and those players at WR and CB are ok to take in the top 10. I just wouldn't take highly productive players who are not also size/speed freaks.

I think ideally in the top ten you take QB, OT, or Edge. CBs and WRs need to be Marvin Harrison Jr. caliber.

 

[Krangodnzr]

Round 1 is a bit broad because there is a vast difference between pick 5 and pick 25 but in the top 10 teams should only be drafting OT, WR, QB, Edge, DT or CB.

Never TE, RB, LB, IOL, S.

To even break into the top 15 they would need to be a special talent.

I'm reluctant to take DTs real high. Lots of busts at DT over the past twenty years high in the first round.

 

[Stout]

My counter would be that a team should find a way to trade back if they find themselves in that situation.

The 2018 draft is a perfect example of this. Saquon, Quenton Nelson, Roquan Smith all went top 10 and those teams probably would have benefited more from McGlinchey, Vea, Payne, Kolton Miller, or Jaire Alexander who went after them but at premium positions.

So instead of drafting a HoF player at a non-premium position, trade out of the top ten for a premium position? That seems counterintuitive.

 

[kerouac9]

So instead of drafting a HoF player at a non-premium position, trade out of the top ten for a premium position? That seems counterintuitive.

No one can know a guy is going to be a hall of fame player on draft day

 

[Stout]

No one can know a guy is going to be a hall of fame player on draft day

This is true. Nothing is absolute. Get it. Nothing. Is. Absolute.

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

I really don’t get why you keep using players from completely different eras of football, man. Travis Kelce is the only one from this era & he wasn’t even drafted in the first round.

Ed Reed? Ladanian Tomlinson? Luke keuchly?

 

[LoyaltyisaCurse]

Ladanian Tomlinson

 

[BritCard]

So Kelce is worse than, say, an Okudah, who isn't even with the Lions any longer? You're equating great players to great players. If the linebacker is Ray Lewis but the WR is Isabella, you're rationale is you still take Isabella. That's why absolutes are usually bad. Never say never, you know?

No that's not what I said. I said a 9 TE is always a worse pick than a 9 WR.

Considering the top 10 is always chock full of OT's, Edge, CB's, DT's etc that are considered 9's there should never be a reason why you take a 9 TE or a 9 Safety over any of them.

 

[BritCard]

I'm reluctant to take DTs real high. Lots of busts at DT over the past twenty years high in the first round.

I get what you're saying, because it's a difficult position to transition. But if you look there are far more busts outside the top 10.

We're talking true all round, pass rushing DT's here in the top 10. It's actually pretty rare because there aren't many of them.

Carter
Brown
Williams
Oliver

There are the only top 10 DT's in the last 10 years and all were taken in the last 5 years.

Go back a little further and you can add Dareus, Suh and McCoy. But it's rare, and it should be rare. But if there is a true inside pressure guy they are worthy of top 10.

I wouldn't draft any of the none premium positions top 10 ever. Not even Brock Bowers.

 

[Stout]

No that's not what I said. I said a 9 TE is always a worse pick than a 9 WR.

Considering the top 10 is always chock full of OT's, Edge, CB's, DT's etc that are considered 9's there should never be a reason why you take a 9 TE or a 9 Safety over any of them.

LOL Because the WR and the TE will always be the same talent level. "Never" and "always" are so...absolute