From Brian James, who offers the best analysis on Insider in my opinion--maybe because he's the only one actually qualified to analyze the NBA--
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ESPN Insider Brian James will provide scouting reports throughout the NBA playoffs.
The most entertaining series should be the fast-paced, wide-open Phoenix Suns taking on the Dallas Mavericks. As an entertaining subplot, there is Steve Nash's anticipated Game 1 reunion with his former team of six seasons, playing against best friends Dirk Nowitzki and Michael Finley, on the night he receives the league MVP trophy.
This series will be up-tempo from start to finish, featuring tremendous open court scorers from both squads. All three games that these teams played against each other had results in the triple figures, with Phoenix winning twice.
Phoenix showed its talent by sweeping Memphis in the first round. Amare Stoudemire, Shawn Marion and Joe Johnson all shot more than 50 percent in the Memphis series. Johnson, Nash, Quentin Richardson and Jim Jackson shot .417 and above from 3-point land. Meanwhile, the Mavericks had their struggles, finally finishing off a tough Houston team in seven games. Phoenix has had eight days to prepare, compared to 48 hours for Dallas, and Nash and Shawn Marion have had time to properly rehab their injuries.
Here are some key questions: Can Stoudemire continue to dominate Dallas as he did in the regular season? Can Dallas wear down Phoenix with the 11-deep team that won the Houston series? Will Dallas take the same game plan that was successful against the Rockets?
Dallas went small in the last five Houston games, and tried to shut down the three players on the floor with Tracy McGrady and Yao Ming. Watch for this to continue as Steve Nash and Stoudemire will get single coverage; then Dallas can stay attached to Johnson, Richardson and Marion. Phoenix will make Dallas play one-on-one defense as it spreads the floor and attacks. Transition defense could make the difference in this series: Can either team stop the initial thrust of the other?
Point guard
Phoenix: Steve Nash left Dallas when owner Mark Cuban wouldn't match the six-year, $65.6 million deal Phoenix offered. Steve's MVP year included leading the league in assists with 11.5 per game, almost two more than anyone else. He is the leader of this team and the others feed off him. If a player is open, Nash will find him, even if he is dribbling the ball up the court at breakneck speed. They space the floor for him, and he gets the ball into the lane, creating opportunities for himself, dump-offs to Stoudemire or penetration-and-pitches to great shooters. If you force him to shoot, he makes at least 50 percent from the field and 90 percent from the line. The screen roll or two-man game with Stoudemire at the elbow area is almost unguardable.
Dallas: Jason Terry has had big shoes to fill and spent all season being compared to Nash. He brings a scoring mentality to the position but has been tremendous in eliminating the forced shots and poor decisions with the ball that he made in prior seasons. He finished 10th in the NBA in 3-point shooting and 22nd in assists. His play kept improving in his first-ever playoff series last week. Jason played great versus Houston and you could see his confidence continue to grow. He averaged 18.3 points in the series, shot .606 on 3s (making 20 of 33 shots), and made 94 percent from the free-throw line. He even had his first two 30-point scoring nights in a Dallas uniform with an assortment of layups, floaters, short jumpers and long-distance bombs. This will be the most interesting matchup in this series, I believe. Dallas forced Nash into a combined 13 turnovers in two of the games he played.
Edge: Phoenix.
Off guard
Phoenix: Joe Johnson just keeps making everything he throws up. He shot at a high percentage all season long and even improved this in the Memphis series, shooting more than 50 percent in the four games. He runs for layups, and will spot behind the line with his hands ready to fire. He may even play a few minutes at the point. He shoots more 3s than free throws.
Dallas: Michael Finley had a great series in Round 1. His veteran leadership came through with repeated big baskets. His ability to hit the jump shots will help eliminate the double-teaming on Nowitzki. He is a big reason for the Mavs' success. He can drive right and finish, or hit the mid-range shot with consistency.
Edge: Even.
Small forward
Phoenix: Quentin Richardson has gone from more of a post-up player to a 3-point shooter who can also post. He can attack on the break and hurt you with his overall offensive game. His 3-point attempts more than triple his FT attempts.
Dallas: Josh Howard gets much of the credit for tiring out McGrady in the fourth quarters in Round 1. He is not afraid to take on the best offensive wing player or power forward, whichever is needed. Look for him to have the assignment to guard any one of the three perimeter players on Phoenix, including Shawn Marion. He is very quick in attacking with the ball in his hands, so he fits well in the Mavericks' system.
Edge: Dallas by the slightest of margins due to Howard's defense.
Power forward
Phoenix: Shawn Marion had as good a season as anyone in the league. Becoming the third-leading rebounder in the NBA is astonishing because Marion is undersized for his position. His unorthodox shot goes in and he is always guarding the best swing player on the opposing team. He can score on the break, get stick-backs, or knock down the open shot. Look for him to have just as much success guarding Nowitzki as McGrady had. He will deny the ball and has endless energy. Dallas: The Mavs hope Dirk Nowitzki will get over the bad cold and the cold shooting he suffered from against Houston. I think he will have a great series, as he is too good a player to continue to shoot at 35 percent. Not once did he hit for 30 points in Round 1. But he can hurt you anywhere on the floor and improved in every category during the regular season. Look for him to get plenty of touches, not only in the post but at the elbow area as well. He will have success if Phoenix doesn't double him.
Edge: Even, but Nowitzki needs to be the best player on the floor for Dallas, which gives him an edge if he can get it going.
Center
Phoenix: Amare Stoudemire had great success against Dallas in the regular season. This is the area of most concern for the Mavs, since they don't have anyone on their roster to match up with him in terms of running ability, power, strength, quickness and overall athletic ability with scoring potential. Amare finished with 98 points in three games against Dallas. The Suns will take advantage and hope to duplicate the 32.7 ppg, 11 rpg, and 58 percent shooting Stoudemire achieved against the Mavs. His quickness and ability to finish from the elbow area with one dribble or knock down the mid-range jumper are very good. But this will only be after he doesn't get the ball by sealing the middle of the lane in transition or rolling after setting a screen on the ball.
Dallas: Erick Dampier shot the ball when given the chance in Round 1. His 19 for 30 for .633 FG percentage was overshadowed because his minutes were down. He will probably watch more than play in this series since Stoudemire is much quicker and more athletic. Dampier missed two of the three Phoenix games this year and played only five minutes in the third contest.
Edge: Phoenix.
Bench
Phoenix: The Phoenix bench goes only three deep for the most part. Jimmy Jackson is in the same mold as the three starting wing players in terms of having the ability to knock down any shot. He has plenty of playoff experience, knows how to play and is ultra-competitive. Steven Hunter gave them good results in the Memphis series and now has the ability to play with Stoudemire, not just replace him. Most of his points come in transition or on short jump hooks. Leandro Barbosa played only 26 minutes in Round 1, but has the ability to score from outside or on the drive. Depth may be a factor if this is a long series or an injury occurs.
Dallas: The bench has loads of firepower, averaging 27.7 points in the Houston series, and its depth helped to wear down the Rockets. Jerry Stackhouse was tremendous in his sixth man role most of the Houston series, shooting 9-for-17 for .529 percent from 3-point land, well above his usual performance. Both Devin Harris and Darrell Armstrong will get chances to control Nash. Marquis Daniels will come in to provide depth at the wing position. Keith Van Horn's injured ankle will prevent him from contributing at power forward. Shawn Bradley may not get much chance to play.
Edge: Dallas.
Coaching
Phoenix: Coach Mike D'Antoni stays modest as he talks about the success of his team this season. The additions of Nash and Richardson aren't the only reasons the Suns improved more than any other team this season. D'Antoni let his team fly, forming a system that brought out the strengths of his team, individually and as a unit. He doesn't overcoach and his team's chemistry is as good as it gets.
Dallas: Coach Avery Johnson made some great adjustments in his first-ever playoff series as a head coach. His defensive changes on McGrady, going "small ball," and challenging his players to keep attacking proved successful. I thought he orchestrated his roster well and the use of Darrell Armstrong the last two games on Mike James showed that he would go 11 deep in order to find the right options.
Edge: Even.
Prediction
Phoenix led the league in scoring by a wide margin. The Suns have so much going for them in this series. They have more rest, the home-court advantage, and the MVP and Coach of the Year on their side. The Suns also have the most imposing inside presence in Stoudemire. These are just a few reasons Phoenix will win this series in six games if it stays injury-free.
Brian James, a former assistant coach with the Pistons, Raptors and Wizards, is a regular contributor to Insider.
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ESPN Insider Brian James will provide scouting reports throughout the NBA playoffs.
The most entertaining series should be the fast-paced, wide-open Phoenix Suns taking on the Dallas Mavericks. As an entertaining subplot, there is Steve Nash's anticipated Game 1 reunion with his former team of six seasons, playing against best friends Dirk Nowitzki and Michael Finley, on the night he receives the league MVP trophy.
This series will be up-tempo from start to finish, featuring tremendous open court scorers from both squads. All three games that these teams played against each other had results in the triple figures, with Phoenix winning twice.
Phoenix showed its talent by sweeping Memphis in the first round. Amare Stoudemire, Shawn Marion and Joe Johnson all shot more than 50 percent in the Memphis series. Johnson, Nash, Quentin Richardson and Jim Jackson shot .417 and above from 3-point land. Meanwhile, the Mavericks had their struggles, finally finishing off a tough Houston team in seven games. Phoenix has had eight days to prepare, compared to 48 hours for Dallas, and Nash and Shawn Marion have had time to properly rehab their injuries.
Here are some key questions: Can Stoudemire continue to dominate Dallas as he did in the regular season? Can Dallas wear down Phoenix with the 11-deep team that won the Houston series? Will Dallas take the same game plan that was successful against the Rockets?
Dallas went small in the last five Houston games, and tried to shut down the three players on the floor with Tracy McGrady and Yao Ming. Watch for this to continue as Steve Nash and Stoudemire will get single coverage; then Dallas can stay attached to Johnson, Richardson and Marion. Phoenix will make Dallas play one-on-one defense as it spreads the floor and attacks. Transition defense could make the difference in this series: Can either team stop the initial thrust of the other?
Point guard
Phoenix: Steve Nash left Dallas when owner Mark Cuban wouldn't match the six-year, $65.6 million deal Phoenix offered. Steve's MVP year included leading the league in assists with 11.5 per game, almost two more than anyone else. He is the leader of this team and the others feed off him. If a player is open, Nash will find him, even if he is dribbling the ball up the court at breakneck speed. They space the floor for him, and he gets the ball into the lane, creating opportunities for himself, dump-offs to Stoudemire or penetration-and-pitches to great shooters. If you force him to shoot, he makes at least 50 percent from the field and 90 percent from the line. The screen roll or two-man game with Stoudemire at the elbow area is almost unguardable.
Dallas: Jason Terry has had big shoes to fill and spent all season being compared to Nash. He brings a scoring mentality to the position but has been tremendous in eliminating the forced shots and poor decisions with the ball that he made in prior seasons. He finished 10th in the NBA in 3-point shooting and 22nd in assists. His play kept improving in his first-ever playoff series last week. Jason played great versus Houston and you could see his confidence continue to grow. He averaged 18.3 points in the series, shot .606 on 3s (making 20 of 33 shots), and made 94 percent from the free-throw line. He even had his first two 30-point scoring nights in a Dallas uniform with an assortment of layups, floaters, short jumpers and long-distance bombs. This will be the most interesting matchup in this series, I believe. Dallas forced Nash into a combined 13 turnovers in two of the games he played.
Edge: Phoenix.
Off guard
Phoenix: Joe Johnson just keeps making everything he throws up. He shot at a high percentage all season long and even improved this in the Memphis series, shooting more than 50 percent in the four games. He runs for layups, and will spot behind the line with his hands ready to fire. He may even play a few minutes at the point. He shoots more 3s than free throws.
Dallas: Michael Finley had a great series in Round 1. His veteran leadership came through with repeated big baskets. His ability to hit the jump shots will help eliminate the double-teaming on Nowitzki. He is a big reason for the Mavs' success. He can drive right and finish, or hit the mid-range shot with consistency.
Edge: Even.
Small forward
Phoenix: Quentin Richardson has gone from more of a post-up player to a 3-point shooter who can also post. He can attack on the break and hurt you with his overall offensive game. His 3-point attempts more than triple his FT attempts.
Dallas: Josh Howard gets much of the credit for tiring out McGrady in the fourth quarters in Round 1. He is not afraid to take on the best offensive wing player or power forward, whichever is needed. Look for him to have the assignment to guard any one of the three perimeter players on Phoenix, including Shawn Marion. He is very quick in attacking with the ball in his hands, so he fits well in the Mavericks' system.
Edge: Dallas by the slightest of margins due to Howard's defense.
Power forward
Phoenix: Shawn Marion had as good a season as anyone in the league. Becoming the third-leading rebounder in the NBA is astonishing because Marion is undersized for his position. His unorthodox shot goes in and he is always guarding the best swing player on the opposing team. He can score on the break, get stick-backs, or knock down the open shot. Look for him to have just as much success guarding Nowitzki as McGrady had. He will deny the ball and has endless energy. Dallas: The Mavs hope Dirk Nowitzki will get over the bad cold and the cold shooting he suffered from against Houston. I think he will have a great series, as he is too good a player to continue to shoot at 35 percent. Not once did he hit for 30 points in Round 1. But he can hurt you anywhere on the floor and improved in every category during the regular season. Look for him to get plenty of touches, not only in the post but at the elbow area as well. He will have success if Phoenix doesn't double him.
Edge: Even, but Nowitzki needs to be the best player on the floor for Dallas, which gives him an edge if he can get it going.
Center
Phoenix: Amare Stoudemire had great success against Dallas in the regular season. This is the area of most concern for the Mavs, since they don't have anyone on their roster to match up with him in terms of running ability, power, strength, quickness and overall athletic ability with scoring potential. Amare finished with 98 points in three games against Dallas. The Suns will take advantage and hope to duplicate the 32.7 ppg, 11 rpg, and 58 percent shooting Stoudemire achieved against the Mavs. His quickness and ability to finish from the elbow area with one dribble or knock down the mid-range jumper are very good. But this will only be after he doesn't get the ball by sealing the middle of the lane in transition or rolling after setting a screen on the ball.
Dallas: Erick Dampier shot the ball when given the chance in Round 1. His 19 for 30 for .633 FG percentage was overshadowed because his minutes were down. He will probably watch more than play in this series since Stoudemire is much quicker and more athletic. Dampier missed two of the three Phoenix games this year and played only five minutes in the third contest.
Edge: Phoenix.
Bench
Phoenix: The Phoenix bench goes only three deep for the most part. Jimmy Jackson is in the same mold as the three starting wing players in terms of having the ability to knock down any shot. He has plenty of playoff experience, knows how to play and is ultra-competitive. Steven Hunter gave them good results in the Memphis series and now has the ability to play with Stoudemire, not just replace him. Most of his points come in transition or on short jump hooks. Leandro Barbosa played only 26 minutes in Round 1, but has the ability to score from outside or on the drive. Depth may be a factor if this is a long series or an injury occurs.
Dallas: The bench has loads of firepower, averaging 27.7 points in the Houston series, and its depth helped to wear down the Rockets. Jerry Stackhouse was tremendous in his sixth man role most of the Houston series, shooting 9-for-17 for .529 percent from 3-point land, well above his usual performance. Both Devin Harris and Darrell Armstrong will get chances to control Nash. Marquis Daniels will come in to provide depth at the wing position. Keith Van Horn's injured ankle will prevent him from contributing at power forward. Shawn Bradley may not get much chance to play.
Edge: Dallas.
Coaching
Phoenix: Coach Mike D'Antoni stays modest as he talks about the success of his team this season. The additions of Nash and Richardson aren't the only reasons the Suns improved more than any other team this season. D'Antoni let his team fly, forming a system that brought out the strengths of his team, individually and as a unit. He doesn't overcoach and his team's chemistry is as good as it gets.
Dallas: Coach Avery Johnson made some great adjustments in his first-ever playoff series as a head coach. His defensive changes on McGrady, going "small ball," and challenging his players to keep attacking proved successful. I thought he orchestrated his roster well and the use of Darrell Armstrong the last two games on Mike James showed that he would go 11 deep in order to find the right options.
Edge: Even.
Prediction
Phoenix led the league in scoring by a wide margin. The Suns have so much going for them in this series. They have more rest, the home-court advantage, and the MVP and Coach of the Year on their side. The Suns also have the most imposing inside presence in Stoudemire. These are just a few reasons Phoenix will win this series in six games if it stays injury-free.
Brian James, a former assistant coach with the Pistons, Raptors and Wizards, is a regular contributor to Insider.
