Encouraging Kyler Murray Trends

[Krangodnzr]

1. People are begging to take a WR in the top 10. Needing a CeeDee Lamb or Jerry Jeudy to take Kyler to the next level when this roster shouldn't have a hole at WR is the big issue. I'm all for saying KM needs a big guy on the outside with more consistency. Filling it with one of those two players means he needs an elite guy. You guys wanna take a stab in the 2nd or third because Keim sucks and hasn't drafted a decent WR in years? I'm on board. I'm not so much on board when this team is missing starters at 7-9 positions as of today.

2. 25% is fine, and all I meant by "many." But there are a solid amount of QBs in that 25% who went on to struggle through the rest of their careers and are not the solutions for their franchise. Winston being one of them.

3. My only comparison is the play on the field. A phenomenal rookie year, like Baker Mayfield, that did not turn into becoming one of the best QBs in the league, although I bet every Bucs fan thought he would. We can use RG3 for comparison too. Mariota's another. Wentz, Bradford, Cam. All players picked in the top two that had damn good rookie seasons and are now questionable players without winning a championship or maintaining the promise of their rookie season.

4. Let's hope.

The dude just needs to show more to really have arrived. Lots of reasons to be excited about him, but no reason to say he's already locked things down.

1. You are mistaken; the reason anyone is saying to take Jeudy or Lamb is because first round picks tend to work out more. You are seeing something that is just flat out ridiculous here. No one believes Murray needs a top target to be successful, only that the Cardinals need one true dependable target. I cant believe how strangely you view things at times...

2. <SIGH> Why did Winston fail? Is it because he is an absolute knuckle head?? Other than draft position and skin color, Murray and the Uber rapist have nothing in common.

3. Ok. But there is reason to hope, not to dwell on the potential of failure. You just focus on the negative when there is legitimate hope at QB for once.

4. OK. He showed enough to not be a negative Nancy all of the time.

 

[Krangodnzr]

Cam has had 3 seasons better than his rookie season....

Wentz’ second season was also A LOT better than his rookie season.

Don't.

He has this narrative in his head that Murray will fail.

Just like he thought Murray was going to put up Rosen numbers, remember?

 

[Solar7]

1. You are mistaken; the reason anyone is saying to take Jeudy or Lamb is because first round picks tend to work out more. You are seeing something that is just flat out ridiculous here. No one believes Murray needs a top target to be successful, only that the Cardinals need one true dependable target. I cant believe how strangely you view things at times...

2. <SIGH> Why did Winston fail? Is it because he is an absolute knuckle head?? Other than draft position and skin color, Murray and the Uber rapist have nothing in common.

3. Ok. But there is reason to hope, not to dwell on the potential of failure. You just focus on the negative when there is legitimate hope at QB for once.

4. OK. He showed enough to not be a negative Nancy all of the time.

1. The recent evidence says that isn't the case. The only good WRs taken in the top 10 in years are Mike Evans and Amari Cooper - and Cooper isn't even with his team. Seriously, you have to go back to 2011 to see two guys that were game changers go that early. The numbers get even worse when you look at the first round as a whole. Go tell me which 1st round WRs are making a huge impact right now. http://www.nfl.com/draft/history/fulldraft?position=WR&type=position

2. Again, it's not all about Winston. It's about a recurring history of rookie QBs fans were amped about who did not hold up over time. The only reason this argument has even sparked up again is because phrases like "you'd be crazy not to be ecstatic about this kid" are being used, and charts that exclude some of the greatest performances by rookie QBs are being used.

3. Fine, hope. Go for it. I think he's gonna be pretty good. He has to grow. I wasn't participating in a negative way here until this chart was posted, and K9 challenged it first.

You must be registered for see images attach

4. I'm only calling people out when they post misleading things or act like people aren't allowed to question whether or not this guy is the greatest thing since sliced bread. I actually like seeing encouraging stats and hope he gets OROY.

Don't.

He has this narrative in his head that Murray will fail.

Just like he thought Murray was going to put up Rosen numbers, remember?

See above. I have a narrative in my head that being a top ten quarterback in this league is a really hard thing to do, and with Keim in charge, I don't think we'll put the pieces around him to succeed before it's too late.

 

[daves]

Most sites refer to it as passer rating and not Quarterback Rating, but that may have come about because of the introduction of QBR.

Nope, it has been passer rating since the beginning. Many people over the years have erroneously referred to it as "a" quarterback rating, before QBR came along and made it more important to get it right and avoid confusion between the two. Plus, passer rating is just a more accurate term, since it only takes into account passing stats.

...dbs

 

[daves]

It is literally also called Quarterback Rating, and is the same quarterback rating stat that has been used for decades before "QBR" was invented by ESPN in 2011. It is the official formula used by the NFL to determine its passing leader, QBR is just a flashy metric ESPN coined.

Still 100% wrong. Maybe you should do some research before posting with such certainty.

People have been erroneously calling it quarterback rating for years, moreso before QBR came along. It's understandable given that it's a rating system for quarterbacks, even "a quarterback rating system". But the NFL has always referred to it has the "passer rating".

I have graph paper from the early 1970s where i charted out Jim Hart's stats and calculated his Passer Rating. I've followed football stats with interest since then. I remember when people started calling it "quarterback rating" and i remember people in the know correcting them, citing official NFL sources... for decades.

...dbs

 

[daves]

Pro Football Reference coins it as Quarterback Rating

The fact that some web programming intern got it wrong on Pro Football Reference's pop-up context menu doesn't make you, or them, right. They also allow you to sort player stats by "passer rating".

some may have switched to Passer Rating to try to make it distinct.

You may imagine this happened, but you're still wrong.

No biggie... just keepin' it real!

...dbs

 

[daves]

I'm only saying it because @daves gave me the "actually," and then tried to show I was wrong about my stats.

Actually, you're the one that started the "actually" thing.....

You do realize "passer rating" is actually truly called "Quarterback Rating"

That's the only reason i piped in. Sorry to sidetrack the Kyler Murray discussion!

...dbs

 

[TheCardFan]

When is offensive rookie of the year announced?

 

[Ronin]

When is offensive rookie of the year announced?

I'm guessing at the NFL Honors award show. That is when they usually announce when the MVP of the NFL is announced.

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

That's not proof. That's evidence.

That’s not evidence. That’s precedence.

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

I didn't change my approach to satisfy anyone. Kyler proved to be better than I expected. Good on him. It's as simple as that. But it's not enough for me to completely turn course, especially when I don't trust in the leadership around him.


I think what you fail to miss in my arguments is that I'm comparing the two rookie seasons in a vacuum. We need to let go of all of the next five years of his play, because he has proven to be divisive at best. My point is we're counting chickens before they hatch. There's a ton on Murray's plate for him to prove until we can say he's not going to fall off like many rookie QBs into the rest of their contract.


I'm not really sure how you say that so assertively. Kyler is responsible for more yards, but had 16 games to Minshew & Daniel Jones' 12, and still fell short of them in passing TDs. He threw six more INTs than Minshew, and tied Jones at 12. He had the lowest quarterback rating of the three.

I think where you come off as disingenuous with this conversation is you list off the areas where Murray falls short of minshew and jones but fail to acknowledge where he exceeds them. Such as jones ridiculous amount of fumbles or kylers rushing. If you really want to be taken seriously with your opinion you need to present a balanced argument imo.

 

[Dr. Jones]

WR's have one of the highest first round failure rates. It's almost 50%.

That stands to reason that two of Jeudy, Lamb, Higgins, Ruggs, & Laviska will fail. In fact, it's probably 3 or 4 if you look at the past 3 or 4 drafts.

LBer & OT have a much higher failure rate.

That’s not evidence. That’s precedence.

I hear the Law & Order "dong" in the background!

 

[TheCardFan]

WR's also seem to take longer to develop. FWIW

 

[Krangodnzr]

1. The recent evidence says that isn't the case. The only good WRs taken in the top 10 in years are Mike Evans and Amari Cooper - and Cooper isn't even with his team. Seriously, you have to go back to 2011 to see two guys that were game changers go that early. The numbers get even worse when you look at the first round as a whole. Go tell me which 1st round WRs are making a huge impact right now. http://www.nfl.com/draft/history/fulldraft?position=WR&type=position

2. Again, it's not all about Winston. It's about a recurring history of rookie QBs fans were amped about who did not hold up over time. The only reason this argument has even sparked up again is because phrases like "you'd be crazy not to be ecstatic about this kid" are being used, and charts that exclude some of the greatest performances by rookie QBs are being used.

3. Fine, hope. Go for it. I think he's gonna be pretty good. He has to grow. I wasn't participating in a negative way here until this chart was posted, and K9 challenged it first.

You must be registered for see images attach

4. I'm only calling people out when they post misleading things or act like people aren't allowed to question whether or not this guy is the greatest thing since sliced bread. I actually like seeing encouraging stats and hope he gets OROY.


See above. I have a narrative in my head that being a top ten quarterback in this league is a really hard thing to do, and with Keim in charge, I don't think we'll put the pieces around him to succeed before it's too late.

1st round WRs are still more likely to hit more than EVERY OTHER ROUND.

People have used the same argument for drafting QBs in the past.

Do we want the Cardinals to roll the 25% chance of succeeding dice on a 3rd round receiver, or do we want them to roll the 50% dice on a 1st rounder.

#argumentfail

 

[Krangodnzr]

WR's have one of the highest first round failure rates. It's almost 50%.

That stands to reason that two of Jeudy, Lamb, Higgins, Ruggs, & Laviska will fail. In fact, it's probably 3 or 4 if you look at the past 3 or 4 drafts.

LBer & OT have a much higher failure rate.

I hear the Law & Order "dong" in the background!

See my post to @Solar7 .

50% is a really good rate when you consider every other round.

 

[Solar7]

Still 100% wrong. Maybe you should do some research before posting with such certainty.

People have been erroneously calling it quarterback rating for years, moreso before QBR came along. It's understandable given that it's a rating system for quarterbacks, even "a quarterback rating system". But the NFL has always referred to it has the "passer rating".

I have graph paper from 1972 where i charted out Jim Hart's stats and calculated his Passer Rating. I've followed football stats with interest since then. I remember when people started calling it "quarterback rating" and i remember people in the know correcting them, citing official NFL sources... for decades.

...dbs

Wikipedia: "Passer rating, also known as quarterback rating, QB rating"
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Passer_rating

NFL.com: "Quarterback Rating Formula"
http://www.nfl.com/help/quarterbackratingformula

NFL.com stats: Doesn't include QBR, as it is ESPN's proprietary stat
http://www.nfl.com/stats/categoryst...263-s=PASSING_YARDS&d-447263-o=2&d-447263-n=1

Multiple other sites: Quarterback Rating (not QBR)
https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/player-stat/qb-rating-nfl
http://stats.washingtonpost.com/fb/leaders.asp?range=NFL&rank=039&type=Passing
https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2001/08/how-does-the-nfl-s-quarterback-rating-system-work.html

It can be called both, but calling me out on the semantics of Quarterback Rating vs. Passer Rating is like calling someone out on their spelling of color or colour, they're both right, and my argument was still right.

 

[juza76]

WR's have one of the highest first round failure rates. It's almost 50%.

That stands to reason that two of Jeudy, Lamb, Higgins, Ruggs, & Laviska will fail. In fact, it's probably 3 or 4 if you look at the past 3 or 4 drafts.

LBer & OT have a much higher failure rate.

I hear the Law & Order "dong" in the background!

Defensive linemen are most of the time a guarantee failure in the top 10
Rarely they make the impact worth the high pick invested

 

[Solar7]

I think where you come off as disingenuous with this conversation is you list off the areas where Murray falls short of minshew and jones but fail to acknowledge where he exceeds them. Such as jones ridiculous amount of fumbles or kylers rushing. If you really want to be taken seriously with your opinion you need to present a balanced argument imo.

It comes down to knowing my audience. I'm not writing articles for a national audience or the layman, I assume everyone here pretty much knows Kyler's stats.

When defending the position that "I think he was the best rookie QB this season and I think most of the analytics (advanced and standard) back up that assertion," all I'm doing is pointing out spots where Kyler wasn't leaps and bounds above the others. Depending on what is more important to you in judging a QB, which is subjective, there's openness for debate, as he didn't win in every category.

If this were a thread out of nowhere, maybe I'd bring up both categories, but the positives have already been laid out ad nauseum so I don't feel the need to bring them up myself.

 

[GuernseyCard]

Wikipedia: "Passer rating, also known as quarterback rating, QB rating"
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Passer_rating

NFL.com: "Quarterback Rating Formula"
http://www.nfl.com/help/quarterbackratingformula

NFL.com stats: Doesn't include QBR, as it is ESPN's proprietary stat
http://www.nfl.com/stats/categoryst...263-s=PASSING_YARDS&d-447263-o=2&d-447263-n=1

Multiple other sites: Quarterback Rating (not QBR)
https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/player-stat/qb-rating-nfl
http://stats.washingtonpost.com/fb/leaders.asp?range=NFL&rank=039&type=Passing
https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2001/08/how-does-the-nfl-s-quarterback-rating-system-work.html

It can be called both, but calling me out on the semantics of Quarterback Rating vs. Passer Rating is like calling someone out on their spelling of color or colour, they're both right, and my argument was still right.

Rumour has it that you need a sense of humour to ever believe that 'color' is a proper English spelling.

 

[Solar7]

1st round WRs are still more likely to hit more than EVERY OTHER ROUND.

People have used the same argument for drafting QBs in the past.

Do we want the Cardinals to roll the 25% chance of succeeding dice on a 3rd round receiver, or do we want them to roll the 50% dice on a 1st rounder.

#argumentfail

Do you actually ever crunch the numbers on this stuff or just go with what you feel? Look at the past 5 years, with me being pretty generous to some first rounders here... The numbers get even worse with receivers taken in the top ten, where just one can be deemed a success, and he doesn't even play for his original team.

2019 thus far:
1st: 2 drafted, 1 "hit" (Marquise Brown)
2nd: 7 drafted, 4 "hits" (Deebo Samuel, AJ Brown, Mecole Hardman, DK Metcalf)

2018:
1st: 2 drafted, 2 "hits" (DJ Moore, Calvin Ridley)
2nd: 6 drafted, 2-3 "hits" (Courtland Sutton, Christian Kirk, DJ Chark - Washington has potential too)

2017:
1st: 3 drafted, 0 "hits" - most alarmingly, 3 were taken in the top 10.
2nd: 3 drafted, 2 "hits" (Curtis Samuel, Juju Smith-Schuster)

2016:
1st: 4 drafted, 1 maybe "hit" (Will Fuller)
2nd: 3 drafted, 2-3 "hits" (Michael Thomas, Tyler Boyd, counting Shepard here)

2015:
1st: 6 drafted, 1 "hit" (Amari Cooper, and he doesn't even play for his team anymore. Not gonna count DeVante Parker or Breshad Perriman for a few select good games over 5 years)
2nd: 3 drafted, 0 "hits"

5 year numbers:
1st: 17 drafted, 5 "hits" - 29% success rate.
2nd: 22 drafted, 10-12 "hits" - 45-54% success rate.

 

[TheCardFan]

5 year numbers:
1st: 17 drafted, 5 "hits" - 29% success rate.
2nd: 22 drafted, 10-12 "hits" - 45-54% success rate.

The moral of the story...pick the right guy.

 

[AsUpRoDiGy]

The moral of the story...pick the right guy.

AKA something Keim is notoriously bad at.

 

[slanidrac16]

The moral of the story...pick the right guy.

Great players will come out of the draft. And from 1 to 31 other teams will have passed on him.

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

Wikipedia: "Passer rating, also known as quarterback rating, QB rating"
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Passer_rating

NFL.com: "Quarterback Rating Formula"
http://www.nfl.com/help/quarterbackratingformula

NFL.com stats: Doesn't include QBR, as it is ESPN's proprietary stat
http://www.nfl.com/stats/categoryst...263-s=PASSING_YARDS&d-447263-o=2&d-447263-n=1

Multiple other sites: Quarterback Rating (not QBR)
https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/player-stat/qb-rating-nfl
http://stats.washingtonpost.com/fb/leaders.asp?range=NFL&rank=039&type=Passing
https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2001/08/how-does-the-nfl-s-quarterback-rating-system-work.html

It can be called both, but calling me out on the semantics of Quarterback Rating vs. Passer Rating is like calling someone out on their spelling of color or colour, they're both right, and my argument was still right.

This is a dumb argument. Who cares what it’s called. If passer rating fails to take rushing stats into consideration its a failure as a stat to measure a QB’s effect in the game. That’s all that matters.

 

[Solar7]

This is a dumb argument. Who cares what it’s called. If passer rating fails to take rushing stats into consideration its a failure as a stat to measure a QB’s effect in the game. That’s all that matters.

Oh, come on. I'm providing a statistic that has been used for decades to explain why people are open to the discussion that Kyler isn't the best rookie QB. There isn't a consensus by people that analyze this for a living, and a stat that has been used since before I was born is a valid approach to explain how close all three are.

You want player grades from PFF as your only source or whatever? Fine. Or ESPN's manufactured stat that no one else is allowed to use in broadcasting, and the NFL doesn't use? Fine. I'm sure if passer rating, quarterback rating, or whatever you want to call it was in support of Kyler Murray, it'd be the top stat quoted.