D'Backs playoff hunt

[Dback Jon]

And no, I don't think we can win the World Series (although I could imagine a scenario where it happens).

Likely, I see us winning a WC, winning that, then losing to the Dodgers in the NLDS.

 

[DWKB]

I think Jon provided some solid details... Your statement in this thread is without the detail. If you believe the team as a whole hit their peaks in the first half, therefore nobody should be fooled into believing the future will look anything like the first half, offer up the specifics.
For the record, I personally don't see this team as anything close to World Series quality. However, the addition of Martinez has me more bullish about the ability of this team to pull themselves out of this slump and make the post season. Which, given what I had expected of this season, is a massive bonus!
I also agree that the lack of quality talent in our system will hamstring the team from making the moves needed to become a legit World Series contender. I believe they have barely enough to consistently contend for post season play, with guys like Goldy, Lamb, Pollock, Peralta, Owings, Marte, Greinke, Ray, Corbin, Godley, Walker, Bradley... I don't see them signing Martinez to a long-term deal. And if one or more of these players begins to experience poor play and/or an extended slump - particularly Goldy, well - we lose... it's a simple as that. Which does not make for a World Series contending team...

1) my original post was about enjoying this season because this team isn't built to contend long term. The amount of players exceeding projections and staying healthy is what makes this season special. Even so, as you say, we are WC level. Everything you've said I've already said earlier.

2) if you want specifics, look at the post 12 minutes before you made yours.

 

[DWKB]

So someone in the second full year in MLB (Lamb) has a norm to compare too?
[\quote]

Yes, Lamb has a "norm". Projections can be made from minor league seasons as well.

At 23, Marte has the defensive skills, speed, and power. Plate discipline needs work, but I see him improving (like I did with Ray)
[\quote]

Offer something to back your "see" and make a convincing argument that he will improve to the level of serious contributor to playoff team long term.

Even if Goldy is gone after 2 years, that is 2018/19 with both Goldy and Greinke, and I like our chances.
[\quote]

Yeah, but who supports these two and what happens if they don't perform to expectation (like last year)?

I like Pollock, but not going to throw money at an injury prone player. He is a Dback for at least one more year, so let's see if we want to keep him.
[\quote]

But you DID want to. The whole board did and I was the ass who suggested pragmatism and said no. Then I get crapped on for taking that pessimistic pov, just like here. Simply too much optimism on this board for analysis purposes. Great for fandom though.

Drury hasn't played a full season yet. Shirley you aren't telling me that players never improve?
[\quote]

I'm telling you that Drury hasn't shown anything that would indicate a large jump in production beyond his replacement player level now. I'm open to you showing me different instead of just saying a generic "player improve". They also regress and fall out of the league.

I expect Peralta to get slightly better in the next few years. Just a hunch.
[\quote]

Here is the problem, what am I supposed to do with your "hunch"? That's a BS answer IMO.

Ray is only 25. The difference between last year and this year is night and day. Why would you think he would regress?
Godly is getting his first year at full time starting. Better than last year, will be better still next year. I didn't realize pitchers stopped getting better at 27
[\quote]

I told you why Ray would regress, BABIP. You ignored it. Godly has a BABIP problem too. 27 is the peak age of MLB players on avg. if you haven't shown serious production by then it's not likely to show up later.

I see you ignored my last two.

You use stats when it suits you, then ignore the same when it goes against your argument

Show me what I ignored and I'll address it, but this is the biggest projection in the world right now Jon.

 

[82CardsGrad]

1) my original post was about enjoying this season because this team isn't built to contend long term. The amount of players exceeding projections and staying healthy is what makes this season special. Even so, as you say, we are WC level. Everything you've said I've already said earlier.

2) if you want specifics, look at the post 12 minutes before you made yours.

Saw it after I posted my comments... thx.

 

[Matt L]

I am going to enjoy the hell out of this season and go to any playoff games we have here

 

[Dback Jon]

My eyes and stats tell me that Robbie Ray, Jake Lamb made huge strides forward this season. And that improvement leads me to predict that they will get better.

Your stats tell you otherwise. We shall see.

 

[82CardsGrad]

My eyes and stats tell me that Robbie Ray, Jake Lamb made huge strides forward this season. And that improvement leads me to predict that they will get better.

Your stats tell you otherwise. We shall see.

I'm not gonna get all sabre-metric on you like DWKB does... but, I will say that for whatever it's worth (which is nothing of course!), I don't see Ray and Lamb, and for that matter Peralta, Corbin, Drury and Owings, improving much above where they are right now... Which, with respect to Ray & Lamb, if they were to simply hold this level of play, would be just fine. Peralta is solid, but he's hit his high-water mark and defensively, I have my concerns with him. Corbin, Drury and Owings should be considered as trade-bait as far as I'm concerned...

 

[Dback Jon]

I'm not gonna get all sabre-metric on you like DWKB does... but, I will say that for whatever it's worth (which is nothing of course!), I don't see Ray and Lamb, and for that matter Peralta, Corbin, Drury and Owings, improving much above where they are right now... Which, with respect to Ray & Lamb, if they were to simply hold this level of play, would be just fine. Peralta is solid, but he's hit his high-water mark and defensively, I have my concerns with him. Corbin, Drury and Owings should be considered as trade-bait as far as I'm concerned...

I would say if Lamb and Ray keep up this level, they both are solid. Lamb's defense still needs work.

I do think Peralta is not quite at his peak.

I would agree that in the off-season, those three mentioned are not untouchable, especially depending on how Miller's recovery and Marte's performance goes. Ahmed is another that could be traded.

 

[THESMEL]

And no, I don't think we can win the World Series (although I could imagine a scenario where it happens).

Likely, I see us winning a WC, winning that, then losing to the Dodgers in the NLDS.

Maybe we should give up now? Anew season starts and we got the fear factor.

 

[RINGLESS]

D'Backs magic number is down to 27 now. Wow we are close! Such a tough month ahead, but playing a little over 500 may to the trick!

Any teams that are 10+ games back of us I just can't include in the race at this point for our spot. So the teams to watch are:

Rockies 2 GB
------------------------ WC Cut Off
Brewers 5 GB
Marlins 6.5
Cardinals 7.5

 

[RINGLESS]

With the Brewers loss, and D'Backs win tonight the magic number dropped to 25 from 27!!!

Rockies 2 GB
--------------------------------- WC Cutoff
Brewers 6.0 GB
Marlines 7.5 GB
Cardinals 7.5 GB

 

[RON_IN_OC]

So, if the standings stay as they are...Would it be the D'backs and Rockies in the WC single game?...and that winner would take on the Dodgers in the Divisional round?

 

[DWKB]

So, if the standings stay as they are...Would it be the D'backs and Rockies in the WC single game?...and that winner would take on the Dodgers in the Divisional round?

Yes. With the DBacks the home team for the one game playoff.

 

[RINGLESS]

Magic Number 24. We are super close now!!!

Rockies 3 GB
--------------------------------- WC Cutoff
Brewers 6.0 GB
Marlins 8.5 GB
Cardinals 8.5 GB

Realistically, you can pretty much say the Cardinals and Marlins are on life support. With 29 games remaining they would have to finish 9 games above us. Even if we played .400 ball they'd have to play 700. In essence if we went 12-17, they would have to go 21-8. I just don't think that's realistic.

For now it really only leaves the Brewers and Rockies fighting for 2 spots, unless something magical happens for one of the others, and the D'Backs completely go off the rails.

 

[BC867]

Here is an article which compares Major League teams and their remaining regular season schedules easiest to hardest. The Dodgers are #6 and our D-backs are #9.

The key phrase -- do to Colorado in seven games the next two weeks what they did to the Dodgers, and the Diamondbacks won’t just get hoping. The playoffs will be theirs. Here's hoping!

9. Arizona Diamondbacks, 76-58
Opponents’ winning %: .494
Home games: 13 of 28
Off-days: Sept. 7, 21, 28
Games vs. teams .500 or better: 10 of 28
Key series: vs. Rockies, Sept. 11-14
Overview: They just swept the Dodgers, and they’ll get another chance next week. Arizona’s schedule becomes far more forgiving once that’s over. And with the Diamondbacks’ last 15 games at San Francisco, at San Diego, hosting Miami and the Giants, and going to visit Kansas City, their hopes for a wild-card spot look better and better. Do to Colorado in seven games the next two weeks what they did to the Dodgers, and the Diamondbacks won’t just get hoping. The playoffs will be theirs.

https://sports.yahoo.com/ranking-mlb-contenders-schedules-easiest-hardest-155105654.html

 

[RINGLESS]

Entering todays games

Rockies 3.5 GB
--------------------------------- WC Cutoff
Elimination From D'Backs Spots (Magic Number)
Brewers 6.0 GB 23
Cardinals 8.5 GB 21
Marlins 9.5 GB 20

Tonight we can get the Magic number down to 21 with a win and Brewers loss.

 

[Dback Jon]

Miami loses

 

[Dback Jon]

Milwaukee wins again, 1-0 over Washington

 

[RINGLESS]

Rockies 4.5 GB
--------------------------------- WC Cutoff
Elimination From D'Backs Spots (Magic Number)
Brewers 6.0 GB 22
Cardinals 8.5 GB 20
Marlins 9.5 GB 18

D'Backs win again! We have a very comfortable lead at this point considering there are only 27 games remaining. Hopefully we can clinch a series win tomorrow in Colorado.

 

[RINGLESS]

After today's games

Rockies 6.5 GB
--------------------------------- WC Cutoff
Elimination From D'Backs Spots (Magic Number)
Brewers 7.0 GB 19
Cardinals 8.5 GB 17
Marlins 10.5 GB 15 (It's over for them lol)

I'm only keeping the Marlins there for entertainment purposes but there is no way they overcome a -11 GB with 26 to go.

Onto the Dodgers! Never would have thought we could sweep the Dodgers and Rockies. Do we have another one in us?

 

[Bert]

Miami loses

I keep telling these guys that the Marlins suck and they didn't wanna believe me. Everybody loves homeruns I guess lol. They were never a threat their team ERA is almost 5 and they have the fewest strikeouts in the NL. Bad, bad team pitching.

If you look at Colorado's team pitching stats and how bad they are, their collapse is not surprising either.

Meanwhile; quietly the Dbacks pitching staff has the 2nd best ERA, the 2nd most strikeouts, and the 4th best oppBA in the NL.

 

[RINGLESS]

Rockies 6.5 GB
--------------------------------- WC Cutoff
Elimination From D'Backs Spots (Magic Number)
Brewers 8.0 GB 17
Cardinals 8.5 GB 16
Marlins 11.5 GB 13

We could be talking clinching scenarios next week at this rate lol

 

[RINGLESS]

Rockies 7.5 GB 16 Magic Number for home game
--------------------------------- WC Cutoff
Elimination From D'Backs Spots (Magic Number)
Cardinals 9.5 GB 14
Brewers 10 GB 13
Marlins 14.5 GB 9

Will we clinch next week?

 

[Azlen]

After today's games we are 10 back of the Dodgers and 10 up on St Louis and Milwaukee for a playoff spot.

Dodgers magic number to win the division is 13 as is the D'backs magic number over the Brewers and the Cardinals.

 

[Azlen]

Is it too much to hope there's a three way tie for the second wildcard slot? (Assuming that the Diamondbacks are in the first wild card slot which seems to be the most likely scenario)
If that were to happen there would be a mini playoffs sort of thing. Team A would host team B in the first game and the winner of that would host team C for the final playoff spot.
The team with the best record against the two other two gets to choose which slot they want. Basically choosing if they want to try to win two games at home or one on the road. The team with the second best record chooses next and the third gets what's left.
The winner of that comes to Chase Field to play the Diamondbacks.