Correction Time

[jefftheshark]

Market's been signaling a top for a week now. Nikkei and Asia way down tonight after a brutal day in NYC today.

Good time to look at your stops.

JTS

 

[conraddobler]

Market's been signaling a top for a week now. Nikkei and Asia way down tonight after a brutal day in NYC today.

Good time to look at your stops.

JTS

Correction?

That would imply we're in a new bull market.

I'd be real careful with that one.

I don't play online poker anymore because it's rigged.

Careful you don't overplay your hand on the assumption you know what the great beast is up to.

Only a fool or a real insider should play this market, if you think you're a shark go right on ahead but there's no crying in scam markets, remember that.

Stops are a great idea, make sure you use them JMHO.

They don't do much in waterfalls, not saying we'll get one, but just friendly advice.

Not investment advice of course.

The great beast and Obama's interests are diverging, I think things like that are seminal events, Obama can't hug them and the American people at the same time.

The boats leaving port and he's on the pier and the boat, he's got to choose fast, if he really chooses the stuff is going to hit the fan all at once.

 

[Russ Smith]

Yeah the last week was a bummer. I had considered going mostly cash in my IRA's if the Dow hit 11K but it didn't before this week happened. I lost $4200 in my IRA's combined today alone, close to 10K for the week.

This week was particularly brutal for Brocade, hit a high of 8.04 on Thursday closed at 7.79 and sold off today closing at 7.41. No real reason for the selloff but it cut $100 off my value for now. It's the only stock I'm holding now and when it broke 8 twice recently I thought it was setting up for a run up but no such luck.

Oh well, that's what happens when the president says he's going to go after the banks because he is trying to divert attention away from the Mass. election.

 

[82CardsGrad]

4 letters for ya Russ... ISRG. Went up over 35 points today. No, that's not a typo...

 

[Russ Smith]

4 letters for ya Russ... ISRG. Went up over 35 points today. No, that's not a typo...

Tell me about it, when ISRG was under 100 I was going to buy it again but didn't it's more than tripled since then. and that was just March.

Great company I nearly worked there several years ago made the final 2 but the other guy got the job. At the time I told myself well the stock is over 100 so my options wouldn't have been worth much anyways.

 

[jefftheshark]

The move down was quicker than I thought but look at the chart:

You must be registered for see images attach

Monday could be interesting. If the current trend continues, we should see a bounce back up, but if the S&P drops much father than this "support", it could be "look out below"!

JTS

disclaimer: currently long SDS, VXX with tight stops

 

[conraddobler]

The Scott Brown election could actually have been the black swan.

Obama forced to tack away from banks, proposes GS 2.

Banks turn off S&P upomatic.

Bernanke renom in trouble.

Or GS went short.

Lot's of things could be in play, none of those are fundamentals because no one has bothered with those quaint things in almost a year now.

I kinda agree with those that are saying we just saw the largest halfway back of our lifetimes.

It could meander around here but if it ever crosses the 61.8 retrace point from the top of the market to the bottom in March 2009 then I might rethink it.

Strictly as a trade you could of easily gone long that chart into the bell with a good set of stops.

Only reason I wouldn't have is because if Bernanke would go down in flames over the weekend that would cornhole you good, stops or no stops.

 

[jefftheshark]

The Scott Brown election could actually have been the black swan.

Obama forced to tack away from banks, proposes GS 2.

Banks turn off S&P upomatic.

Bernanke renom in trouble.

Or GS went short.

Lot's of things could be in play, none of those are fundamentals because no one has bothered with those quaint things in almost a year now.

I kinda agree with those that are saying we just saw the largest halfway back of our lifetimes.

It could meander around here but if it ever crosses the 61.8 retrace point from the top of the market to the bottom in March 2009 then I might rethink it.

Strictly as a trade you could of easily gone long that chart into the bell with a good set of stops.

Only reason I wouldn't have is because if Bernanke would go down in flames over the weekend that would cornhole you good, stops or no stops.

Yeah, f'in' gaps.....lol.

And Brown probably fits the Black Swan scenario, as you say. If true, the the giant vampire squid is going to do a Sampson on BO and bring the market to its knees.

If you think about it, there is far more money to be made by the banks on the downside than there is on the up, and since the general public is generally long, then this situation makes a lot of sense. You could see GS dropping to 100 and still have Goldman make a ton of dough trading the FAZ, which they have literally killed the last 10 months (I know from personal experience - f me for looking at fundamentals ). I wouldn't be too surprised to see Citi thrown to the wolves either, especially since the biggest two losers in the deal would be the US taxpayer and the Middle East (Dubai for the best example).

Any more discussion on this is probably more P&R material however.

JTS

d: short gold, long USD, FAZ

 

[LVG]

Any more discussion on this is probably more P&R material however.

I understand that talking about finance sometimes lends itself to a brush by with politics, which is why talking about the effect of policies or potential policies is fine on this forum.

It's when we get into the "The idiots did what?!" discussion that it starts to become P&R material. However, I hold off until I see the discussion having a majority of P&R type comments.

 

[conraddobler]

I understand that talking about finance sometimes lends itself to a brush by with politics, which is why talking about the effect of policies or potential policies is fine on this forum.

It's when we get into the "The idiots did what?!" discussion that it starts to become P&R material. However, I hold off until I see the discussion having a majority of P&R type comments.

Yes this.

Politics is hopelessly intertwined into the markets, so if you want to talk about the markets, you have to talk some politics.

There's so much that hinges on what's done it's scary, the last depression was all about the reactions to the mess that shaped it's overall effect and lasting power.

IMO we're about at that stage in terms of where alliances forged in panic start to come unglued.

 

[Russ Smith]

So the question is how low(I'll use the DOW) do people think this is going? Is it a one week correction or worse?

I had planned to move most of my IRA into cash if the DOW hit 11K, unfortunately it dove before that. Now I'm in the classic do I move it out now and miss a rebound, or do I stand pat and it goes quite a bit lower?

the problem now is that the markets aren't being driven by the usual forces, right now it's being driven almost entirely by "what is Obama going to do next."

 

[82CardsGrad]

So the question is how low(I'll use the DOW) do people think this is going? Is it a one week correction or worse?

I had planned to move most of my IRA into cash if the DOW hit 11K, unfortunately it dove before that. Now I'm in the classic do I move it out now and miss a rebound, or do I stand pat and it goes quite a bit lower?

the problem now is that the markets aren't being driven by the usual forces, right now it's being driven almost entirely by "what is Obama going to do next."

It's more than Obama messing it up... China is talking about tightening and pulling in the reigns. Unemployment continues to be a major problem... And yes, Obama going after banks and financial institutions is factoring in as well... Uggghhhh....

 

[Russ Smith]

It's more than Obama messing it up... China is talking about tightening and pulling in the reigns. Unemployment continues to be a major problem... And yes, Obama going after banks and financial institutions is factoring in as well... Uggghhhh....

Sorry I should have clarified. I mean the likely next big mover in the market will be the State of the Union Address which I think is Tuesday?

One of the comments on Friday was that a lot of traders on the market floor were very nervous not knowing what Obama would announce there. You're right about what China said and about unemployment but I think barring some unforseen occurrence the speech Tuesday night will be the next momentum one way or another.

 

[conraddobler]

So the question is how low(I'll use the DOW) do people think this is going? Is it a one week correction or worse?

I had planned to move most of my IRA into cash if the DOW hit 11K, unfortunately it dove before that. Now I'm in the classic do I move it out now and miss a rebound, or do I stand pat and it goes quite a bit lower?

the problem now is that the markets aren't being driven by the usual forces, right now it's being driven almost entirely by "what is Obama going to do next."

Maybe Obama will give us a hint like he did in March?

This is rather soap operaish.

Obama says buy stocks and zooom!

Then Obama trots out Darth Volker and goes boo!

Market cringes.

I'd move my money out right before they shutoff the upomatic system, so if you can find the guy who has that information just follow along with what he does.

 

[jefftheshark]

The markets are working with an inverse correlation to Bernanke's chances of winning a 2nd term. The market rallies when it looks like he has the votes and drops when he doesn't.

Of course, this just shows how manipulated the markets are, which in turn shows what the ultimate outcome will probably be when all support is removed. (Hint: it's f-ugly).

JTS

 

[conraddobler]

The markets are working with an inverse correlation to Bernanke's chances of winning a 2nd term. The market rallies when it looks like he has the votes and drops when he doesn't.

Of course, this just shows how manipulated the markets are, which in turn shows what the ultimate outcome will probably be when all support is removed. (Hint: it's f-ugly).

JTS

Rut Roh.

http://market-ticker.denninger.net/

Did Goldman offer to tear up the AIG contracts?

My memory is fuzzy but I don't think that's what you know who said under oath.

Then again he did say no one approached him, guess technically that's correct if you were the one doing the aproaching.

I have no idea if this is correct but if it is all kinds of stuff should in theory hit the fan but here in bizzaro world it's probably good for another couple hundy on the Dow.

 

[jefftheshark]

I'm taking today's downward move as a little gift (or a one day head fake)and jumped out of FAZ, SDS, & VXX with a little profit, and went long on FAS while it's way down, based upon the guess that Bernanke has the votes today.

We shall see.

JTS

 

[Russ Smith]

I'm taking today's downward move as a little gift (or a one day head fake)and jumped out of FAZ, SDS, & VXX with a little profit, and went long on FAS while it's way down, based upon the guess that Bernanke has the votes today.

We shall see.

JTS

He got the votes so tomorrow will be interesting.

Both Microsoft and Amazon announced after close today, both beat across the board and both were tanking after hours until the calls started and they're now both up so they must have had good guidance.

So hopefully we get a bounce back tomorrow into next week.

Kicking myself I nearly sold Brocade when it got back to 8 taking a loss from 8.5 purchase. It closed at 7.13 today.

they did just sell one of their buildings to someone for 30 million but I kind of doubt that will make the stock pop tomorrow. Just bad timing I bought in a couple of weeks before 3Com was bought and everyone had thought it would be Brocade instead so the stock tanked. I wasn't really relying on the buyout I liked Brocade's business, which ironically is doing really well but the stock is
still loaded with short interest from that buyout rumor not going through so it's going to take awhile before I can get out without taking a loss.

That's my only holding right now other than my IRA's which are in funds not individual stocks.

 

[jefftheshark]

He got the votes so tomorrow will be interesting.

Both Microsoft and Amazon announced after close today, both beat across the board and both were tanking after hours until the calls started and they're now both up so they must have had good guidance.

So hopefully we get a bounce back tomorrow into next week.

Kicking myself I nearly sold Brocade when it got back to 8 taking a loss from 8.5 purchase. It closed at 7.13 today.

they did just sell one of their buildings to someone for 30 million but I kind of doubt that will make the stock pop tomorrow. Just bad timing I bought in a couple of weeks before 3Com was bought and everyone had thought it would be Brocade instead so the stock tanked. I wasn't really relying on the buyout I liked Brocade's business, which ironically is doing really well but the stock is
still loaded with short interest from that buyout rumor not going through so it's going to take awhile before I can get out without taking a loss.

That's my only holding right now other than my IRA's which are in funds not individual stocks.

It's funny, but some days you just do it right.

I got up at 6:30 this a.m. and was going to sell my short stuff (FAZ, VXX, SDS) but got too busy taking the kids to school, so I set some tight stops and left. An hour later I get to work and see they're way up, so I sell them right away. I then buy FAS which is down close to $3.50 and go into a meeting that lasts until lunch.

After lunch when I check in I see that FAS is +$0.02 and so I sell it (but by the time the trade executes, it's down $0.30, but WTH). Ten minutes later the market closes and FAS is down $1.16

So today I played like Kurt Warner vs Green Bay, as opposed to my usual performance which is more like KW vs Carolina this year. Which is nice.

JTS