Some Mock Draft Observations

QuebecCard

ASFN Addict
Joined
Mar 12, 2021
Posts
5,061
Reaction score
7,148
Location
North of the 49th.
Yeah but (assuming Williams & Maye are off the board at #3) they know they can get their QB at #4 if they trade back with the Cardinals, and almost certainly at #5 if they trade back with the Chargers. Why wouldn't they try to leverage some extra picks out of one or the other, and still get their guy?

And if the CARDS get snookered by the NE / LAC trade, they can return the favour by trading down from #4 to, say, Atlanta at #8, who could be interested in the third QB. ;)
 

TheCardFan

Things have changed.
Joined
May 14, 2002
Posts
12,031
Reaction score
14,558
Location
Charlotte
I'm not arguing one way or another - but I find it interesting that the prevailing sentiment on MHJ seems to be, "If he's there, it would take a HUGE offer to pass on him and trade down", and at the same time, "The Cards should give up NOTHING to trade up and be sure of getting him."

Good points.

Trading up into the top 3 is expensive - might cost a 2025 1st round pick. I don't think you do that for a WR. I am not sure I would do that for anyone other than a QB.

Trading down - will most likely cost you MHJ, so it will have to be a great offer (like a 2025 first round pick).
 

daves

Keepin' it real!
Supporting Member
Joined
Nov 2, 2003
Posts
3,322
Reaction score
6,435
Location
Orange County, CA
Good points.

Trading up into the top 3 is expensive - might cost a 2025 1st round pick. I don't think you do that for a WR. I am not sure I would do that for anyone other than a QB.

Trading down - will most likely cost you MHJ, so it will have to be a great offer (like a 2025 first round pick).
According to the Draftek trade value chart, the difference in value between #4 and #3 is 400 points, so exactly equivalent to the Cards' two lower 3rd-round picks. Yep, it's a lot to give up, but if they really want MHJ they might either need to call the Patriots' bluff or miss out.
 

slanidrac16

ASFN Icon
Supporting Member
Joined
Jul 11, 2002
Posts
15,007
Reaction score
14,441
Location
Plainfield, Il.
According to the Draftek trade value chart, the difference in value between #4 and #3 is 400 points, so exactly equivalent to the Cards' two lower 3rd-round picks. Yep, it's a lot to give up, but if they really want MHJ they might either need to call the Patriots' bluff or miss out.
Geez, I can’t see giving that up. I think I would just go with Odunze but now I’m starting to lean toward Naber. He is electric after the catch.
 

TheCardFan

Things have changed.
Joined
May 14, 2002
Posts
12,031
Reaction score
14,558
Location
Charlotte
According to the Draftek trade value chart, the difference in value between #4 and #3 is 400 points, so exactly equivalent to the Cards' two lower 3rd-round picks. Yep, it's a lot to give up, but if they really want MHJ they might either need to call the Patriots' bluff or miss out.

If you were the Patriots, would you move down down one spot and miss out on MHJ or Alt for 2 low third round picks?

I wouldn't.
 
  • Like
Reactions: PJ1

daves

Keepin' it real!
Supporting Member
Joined
Nov 2, 2003
Posts
3,322
Reaction score
6,435
Location
Orange County, CA
If you were the Patriots, would you move down down one spot and miss out on MHJ or Alt for 2 low third round picks?

I wouldn't.
If they're targeting a QB, why not? That's the whole premise behind the scenario where they try to get the Cardinals to trade up to #3.

And if, on the other hand, they sign a FA QB, but they're equally happy with either MHJ or Alt, then why wouldn't they try to get some picks from the Cards so that the Cards can have their choice of MHJ or Alt at #3, rather than settling for whoever is left over at #4?
 

TheCardFan

Things have changed.
Joined
May 14, 2002
Posts
12,031
Reaction score
14,558
Location
Charlotte
If they're targeting a QB, why not? That's the whole premise behind the scenario where they try to get the Cardinals to trade up to #3.

My opinion is it's not enough compensation to make that move.
 

GatorAZ

feed hopkins
Joined
Oct 17, 2011
Posts
24,333
Reaction score
16,526
Location
The Giant Toaster
If you were the Patriots, would you move down down one spot and miss out on MHJ or Alt for 2 low third round picks?

I wouldn't.

They would know who the Cards are taking so why not? Might as well steal some value if you’re getting the guy you want anyway. From the Cards perspective if you tell me regardless of the specific trade scenario that #4 plus one of our third’s guarantees us MHJ I would do it.
 

slanidrac16

ASFN Icon
Supporting Member
Joined
Jul 11, 2002
Posts
15,007
Reaction score
14,441
Location
Plainfield, Il.
They would know who the Cards are taking so why not? Might as well steal some value if you’re getting the guy you want anyway. From the Cards perspective if you tell me regardless of the specific trade scenario that #4 plus one of our third’s guarantees us MHJ I would do it.
This isn’t going to happen.
 

Goldfield

Formally known as BEERZ
Joined
Sep 13, 2002
Posts
10,323
Reaction score
1,831
Location
ASFN
Another scenario: Williams and Maye are picked in the top two slots, and New England is on the clock. They call the Cardinals and say they have an offer from the Chargers at #5, who want to trade up for MHJ, and they know they can still get their desired QB at #5. What are the Cardinals willing to give up to stay ahead of the Chargers and trade up to #3 for MHJ?
Then they miss out on the qb because we take trade offers for him.
 

Goldfield

Formally known as BEERZ
Joined
Sep 13, 2002
Posts
10,323
Reaction score
1,831
Location
ASFN
Eh they could also fall in love with Alt.

There isn't an OL of Alt's caliber in every draft. Fans often underestimate the impact a dominant LT can have on an offense. The Cardinals have a decent one in Humphries, but Alt has the potential to be a lot better.

Some of the best offenses are built around having a monster at LT who can play on an island and win every battle in the run game. Alt is an enormous human being with good feet and he just engulfs opponents.
I haven’t watched his tape but I have no problem with drafting a good OT ever.
 
OP
OP
Harry

Harry

ASFN Consultant and Senior Writer
Joined
Jan 7, 2003
Posts
10,756
Reaction score
22,588
Location
Orlando, FL
According to the Draftek trade value chart, the difference in value between #4 and #3 is 400 points, so exactly equivalent to the Cards' two lower 3rd-round picks. Yep, it's a lot to give up, but if they really want MHJ they might either need to call the Patriots' bluff or miss out.
One of the problems with these value charts is most were created when the pool was weaker and picks from round 3 and below were often throwaways.
 

Mainstreet

Cruisin' Mainstreet
Supporting Member
Joined
Oct 19, 2003
Posts
112,788
Reaction score
52,140
It’s kind of obvious when you see the huge hole on this offense. But we don’t know what’s going thrown Monti’s head.
I really believe if somebody offers Monti a gold bar trade offer he might just take it. Maybe he sees MHJ as a 9.5 but additional picks and Odunze is worth more.
We need to brace ourselves.

I'd be tempted by the gold bar (outrageous trade offer) since the Cardinals appear not to be going quarterback.

It's all about building the team now and for the future.
 

cardpa

Have a Nice Day!
Joined
Mar 14, 2003
Posts
7,316
Reaction score
3,965
Location
Monroe NC
Just to throw this out here. Maybe the new HC of New England may see Mac Jones in a different light. We have to remember that Jones had a very good rookie campaign and then things started to go South after that. Belichick did him any favors naming Matt Patricia and Joe Judge as OC when they never were OCs in their entire career. Belichick and Jones were at odds quite a bit too. Belichick didn't like it one bit when Jones went outside looking for help on the offense. From articles in The Athletic it sounded like Belichick didn't do much to help Jones and both Patricia and Judge were clueless on how to best formulate an offense that played to Jone's strengths.

Maybe, just maybe the new HC will think he can resurrect Jones, believing that his rookie year is where Jones could get back to. I would not assume that the Patriots are going to be locked into a QB come draft time.
 

slanidrac16

ASFN Icon
Supporting Member
Joined
Jul 11, 2002
Posts
15,007
Reaction score
14,441
Location
Plainfield, Il.
Just to throw this out here. Maybe the new HC of New England may see Mac Jones in a different light. We have to remember that Jones had a very good rookie campaign and then things started to go South after that. Belichick did him any favors naming Matt Patricia and Joe Judge as OC when they never were OCs in their entire career. Belichick and Jones were at odds quite a bit too. Belichick didn't like it one bit when Jones went outside looking for help on the offense. From articles in The Athletic it sounded like Belichick didn't do much to help Jones and both Patricia and Judge were clueless on how to best formulate an offense that played to Jone's strengths.

Maybe, just maybe the new HC will think he can resurrect Jones, believing that his rookie year is where Jones could get back to. I would not assume that the Patriots are going to be locked into a QB come draft time.
If this is the case one could argue the Pats would draft an OT to protect Jones.
 
Top