Some Mock Draft Observations

Harry

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I’ve started to get inquiries as to when my mock draft will roll out. Sorry, I don’t do one. I did for years and also monitored others and decided they contributed little to our combined knowledge.

What I do instead is pick a group of players in order of preference for each pick. For example since the first pick is so early:

Pick #4
Harrison
Trade down
Odunze
Fashanu
Alt

I won’t be posting it until after the Combine. Frankly, beyond round 1 it hasn’t been all that accurate in recent years. Largely because I believe the draft pool is getting so deep and strong, it’s almost impossible to predict much. Particularly with a relatively new GM, it’s almost an exercise in futility. I’ll be happy to answer any questions but I guarantee no accuracy. Also keep in mind I’m now semi-retired. I no longer watch 12 games a week. I get about 6 in now, mostly on major conferences. From time to time I do get asked to look at players, like Corley, so I know a few. I’m also still in contact with several more intense analysts and most will give me an opinion unless they’re working for a club. Then they’re not allowed to converse without permission.

Again this year the idea of deep draft consensus is out the window. When I did my series on WRs I just ignored mock drafts in my final decisions. I did look at a few to see if I might be way off and found even people with good histories differed widely. I saw the same receiver in round one that another listed as round 3. So you’re just stuck with my best estimate. It actually indicates how much talent and parity is out there. If you feel you’ve got someone in the wrong round in your mock, frankly, who knows? I’m not sure there’s a wrong prediction until they actually play in the NFL. Just have fun and stand up for your guys.

What typically happens is more prospects go earlier than expected. Fewer players drop to later. So if you want somebody grab them or risk missing out. One other thing is certain. Like last year this draft is loaded with players who will impact games next year. More and more prospects are coming out NFL ready. Ossenfort appears to have sized things up accurately and stored up the draft capital to add multiple impact players. This should be an exciting rebuild.
 

Krangodnzr

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I’ve started to get inquiries as to when my mock draft will roll out. Sorry, I don’t do one. I did for years and also monitored others and decided they contributed little to our combined knowledge.

What I do instead is pick a group of players in order of preference for each pick. For example since the first pick is so early:

Pick #4
Harrison
Trade down
Odunze
Fashanu
Alt

I won’t be posting it until after the Combine. Frankly, beyond round 1 it hasn’t been all that accurate in recent years. Largely because I believe the draft pool is getting so deep and strong, it’s almost impossible to predict much. Particularly with a relatively new GM, it’s almost an exercise in futility. I’ll be happy to answer any questions but I guarantee no accuracy. Also keep in mind I’m now semi-retired. I no longer watch 12 games a week. I get about 6 in now, mostly on major conferences. From time to time I do get asked to look at players, like Corley, so I know a few. I’m also still in contact with several more intense analysts and most will give me an opinion unless they’re working for a club. Then they’re not allowed to converse without permission.

Again this year the idea of deep draft consensus is out the window. When I did my series on WRs I just ignored mock drafts in my final decisions. I did look at a few to see if I might be way off and found even people with good histories differed widely. I saw the same receiver in round one that another listed as round 3. So you’re just stuck with my best estimate. It actually indicates how much talent and parity is out there. If you feel you’ve got someone in the wrong round in your mock, frankly, who knows? I’m not sure there’s a wrong prediction until they actually play in the NFL. Just have fun and stand up for your guys.

What typically happens is more prospects go earlier than expected. Fewer players drop to later. So if you want somebody grab them or risk missing out. One other thing is certain. Like last year this draft is loaded with players who will impact games next year. More and more prospects are coming out NFL ready. Ossenfort appears to have sized things up accurately and stored up the draft capital to add multiple impact players. This should be an exciting rebuild.
I think this is close to my view.

It's Harrison and if not, I'm considering all of those options because I like those players and they fill true premium positions.

But there could be a scenario where a QB is available and a true king's ransom is available from a team like Atlanta who believes they are a QB away.

If the Cardinals are offered a package like three first round picks, and two second round picks, they absolutely have to consider it, especially if Marvin is gone. Imagine moving down to eight and picking someone like Dallas Turner or Nabers and then knowing the team will have two first round picks in 2025 and 2026.
 

slanidrac16

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I just don’t see the Cards spending another high draft pick on an o-lineman. I can see us signing a free agent RT.
It appears it would take a kings ransom to trade out of 4 if MHJ is still available.
If he’s gone I see us trading out. We all say trade but not too far. However, if we traded down to say 15 we would get a boatload of picks in return. We could then use some of those additional picks to move back up and get our guy.
Of course all this is hypothetical. I really think things get interesting if MHJ is gone.
 

NWMike

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It seems like our pick has 3 options. 1) MHJ is there meaning all 3 QB's are gone. In that case no one would want to trade up to 4 anyway so we take him as he is also BPA. 2) MHJ is gone so one of the 3 QB's have now fallen to us (probably Daniels). In that case it depends if one of the QB needy teams think Daniels is the guy. If there is a future #1 on the table you have to jump on that. The worse case scenario is other teams aren't enamored of Daniels and we have little action for our pick. I honestly don't know what I would prefer in that situation. What's interesting in most of the mocks I've seen so far there is maybe 1 defensive player going in the top 10. It wouldn't be exciting but taking one of the tackles would be the best/safest move.
 

Totally_Red

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I just don’t see the Cards spending another high draft pick on an o-lineman. I can see us signing a free agent RT.
It appears it would take a kings ransom to trade out of 4 if MHJ is still available.
If he’s gone I see us trading out. We all say trade but not too far. However, if we traded down to say 15 we would get a boatload of picks in return. We could then use some of those additional picks to move back up and get our guy.
Of course all this is hypothetical. I really think things get interesting if MHJ is gone.
I don't think you trade down without at least one additional first round pick. What is wrong with drafting a tackle if that is the BPA and you have a need.

Good free agent tackles are not cheap and usually are old, have injury issues, or both. You are competing with a half dozen teams for them.
 

oaken1

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I don't think you trade down without at least one additional first round pick. What is wrong with drafting a tackle if that is the BPA and you have a need.

Good free agent tackles are not cheap and usually are old, have injury issues, or both. You are competing with a half dozen teams for them.
agree. BPA fits team need whether it is MHJ or Joe Alt at 4...so just take your guy and move to the next pick.
 

daves

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It seems like our pick has 3 options. 1) MHJ is there meaning all 3 QB's are gone. In that case no one would want to trade up to 4 anyway so we take him as he is also BPA. 2) MHJ is gone so one of the 3 QB's have now fallen to us (probably Daniels). In that case it depends if one of the QB needy teams think Daniels is the guy. If there is a future #1 on the table you have to jump on that. The worse case scenario is other teams aren't enamored of Daniels and we have little action for our pick. I honestly don't know what I would prefer in that situation. What's interesting in most of the mocks I've seen so far there is maybe 1 defensive player going in the top 10. It wouldn't be exciting but taking one of the tackles would be the best/safest move.
Another scenario: Williams and Maye are picked in the top two slots, and New England is on the clock. They call the Cardinals and say they have an offer from the Chargers at #5, who want to trade up for MHJ, and they know they can still get their desired QB at #5. What are the Cardinals willing to give up to stay ahead of the Chargers and trade up to #3 for MHJ?
 

slanidrac16

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Another scenario: Williams and Maye are picked in the top two slots, and New England is on the clock. They call the Cardinals and say they have an offer from the Chargers at #5, who want to trade up for MHJ, and they know they can still get their desired QB at #5. What are the Cardinals willing to give up to stay ahead of the Chargers and trade up to #3 for MHJ?
1. How do they know we want MHJ?
2. we counter that threat with the Falcons have call us so they can get their qb.
 

oaken1

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Another scenario: Williams and Maye are picked in the top two slots, and New England is on the clock. They call the Cardinals and say they have an offer from the Chargers at #5, who want to trade up for MHJ, and they know they can still get their desired QB at #5. What are the Cardinals willing to give up to stay ahead of the Chargers and trade up to #3 for MHJ?
Nothing.
 

TheCardFan

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Another scenario: Williams and Maye are picked in the top two slots, and New England is on the clock. They call the Cardinals and say they have an offer from the Chargers at #5, who want to trade up for MHJ, and they know they can still get their desired QB at #5. What are the Cardinals willing to give up to stay ahead of the Chargers and trade up to #3 for MHJ?

Trading up - 100% no for me.

Stand pat or trade down a couple of spots.
 

daves

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Trading up - 100% no for me.

Stand pat or trade down a couple of spots.
I'm not arguing one way or another - but I find it interesting that the prevailing sentiment on MHJ seems to be, "If he's there, it would take a HUGE offer to pass on him and trade down", and at the same time, "The Cards should give up NOTHING to trade up and be sure of getting him."
 

slanidrac16

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It feels like the whole world knows we want MHJ.
It’s kind of obvious when you see the huge hole on this offense. But we don’t know what’s going thrown Monti’s head.
I really believe if somebody offers Monti a gold bar trade offer he might just take it. Maybe he sees MHJ as a 9.5 but additional picks and Odunze is worth more.
We need to brace ourselves.
 

ASUCHRIS

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If the Cardinals are offered a package like three first round picks, and two second round picks, they absolutely have to consider it, especially if Marvin is gone. Imagine moving down to eight and picking someone like Dallas Turner or Nabers and then knowing the team will have two first round picks in 2025 and 2026.
Consider it? There is no consideration involved. You take the deal immediately. The top 3 players are set, and if Harrison doesn't drop, they better trade down.
 

Broseph

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MHJ at 4 unless a kings ransom is offered, best DB/DE/OT on the board with our second first rounder.
 
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Krangodnzr

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Consider it? There is no consideration involved. You take the deal immediately. The top 3 players are set, and if Harrison doesn't drop, they better trade down.
Eh they could also fall in love with Alt.

There isn't an OL of Alt's caliber in every draft. Fans often underestimate the impact a dominant LT can have on an offense. The Cardinals have a decent one in Humphries, but Alt has the potential to be a lot better.

Some of the best offenses are built around having a monster at LT who can play on an island and win every battle in the run game. Alt is an enormous human being with good feet and he just engulfs opponents.
 

ASUCHRIS

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Eh they could also fall in love with Alt.

There isn't an OL of Alt's caliber in every draft. Fans often underestimate the impact a dominant LT can have on an offense. The Cardinals have a decent one in Humphries, but Alt has the potential to be a lot better.

Some of the best offenses are built around having a monster at LT who can play on an island and win every battle in the run game. Alt is an enormous human being with good feet and he just engulfs opponents.
Totally agree Alt could be a great player. When your options become:

Alt

or

#8 (which could be any number of very good players) plus two more firsts and two more seconds

It's a no brainer for a team full of holes.
 

Krangodnzr

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Totally agree Alt could be a great player. When your options become:

Alt

or

#8 (which could be any number of very good players) plus two more firsts and two more seconds

It's a no brainer for a team full of holes.
My point is kind of the same as taking MHJ...Alt is a true blue chip player. Last year's draft didn't have any of you listened to some evaluators. Anderson might be one, but that was debatable last year.

I agree with the overall view that adding one blue chip player is more important than adding three red chips. The only way I'm moving off #4 is if it's an absolute steal of a trade because this draft has significantly better players than last year's draft.
 

dreamcastrocks

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I'm not arguing one way or another - but I find it interesting that the prevailing sentiment on MHJ seems to be, "If he's there, it would take a HUGE offer to pass on him and trade down", and at the same time, "The Cards should give up NOTHING to trade up and be sure of getting him."
The two aren't mutually exclusive.
 

Krangodnzr

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I'm not arguing one way or another - but I find it interesting that the prevailing sentiment on MHJ seems to be, "If he's there, it would take a HUGE offer to pass on him and trade down", and at the same time, "The Cards should give up NOTHING to trade up and be sure of getting him."
My sentiment is that rebuilding teams shouldn't trade up for players. Trading a bunch of assets for a guy that move your record from 4-13 to 7-10 is pure folly.
 
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