Chopper First Round - Post Week One Free Agency

[Chopper0080]

Here is my mock of the first 32 picks.

1-Tampa Bay-QB-Jameis Winston-Florida St.
*You either get fired without one, or get fired for failing to develop one. Tampa is going to take their shot here.

2-Tennessee-DE-Leonard Williams-USC
*Whis doesn't like young QBs, but seems to like Mettenberger. It wouldn't shock me if they traded for Cutler pre draft, but right now seems like they are sticking w/ Mett. I'm not sure if LeBeau's system hurts the impact of Williams, but he is the best player.

3-Jacksonville-OLB-Vic Beasley-Clemson
*Jags have a decent group along the defensive line with Marks/Branch,Odrick/Alualu/Clemons but they lack at LB. Beasley gives them a versatile and athletic LB the team lacks, while also having the ability to bring edge pressure.

4-Oakland-WR-Kevin White-West Virginia
*I think this is the spot where someone will trade up for Mariota, but I don't believe it will happen. White isn't really worth the #4 pick, but Oakland has put itself in a corner by failing to address the position in free agency.

5-Washington-QB-Marcus Mariota-Oregon
*RGIII isn't what Gruden wants, but it isn't because RGIII doesn't have the skill. If Gruden doesn't take a shot on Mariota, he will get fired in two years as there aren't any other answers at QB. He will take a gamble on Mariota's work ethic, and develop him as his QB going forward.

6-NY Jets-OT-Brandon Sherff-Iowa
*The Jets have the players on defense, and have a defensive coach. What really needs to improve is the offense, and it will have to start up front. The Jets add a physical lineman who can help in the running game and passing game.

7-Chicago-OLB-Dante Fowler Jr.-Florida
*The Bears play in a division with Rodgers, Stafford, and Bridgewater which means you have to get after the QB. Shelton makes a ton of sense here, but not as much as Fowler.

8-Atlanta-DE-Alvin Dupree-Kentucky
*Dupree is a long, lean edge player who offers some mismatch issues. His ability to play more of a DE roles make sense with the additions of Durant and Reed at LB.

9-NY Giants-OT-TJ Clemmings-Pittsburgh
*Big, tough, and long OT who is a work in progress. The Giants will go for the long play here similar to what the Cowboys did with Tyron Smith. They know keeping Eli upright is their best chance for success.

10-St. Louis-OT-Ereck Flowers-Miami
*St. Louis has shown a preference for physical assets over techinical ones which places Flowers firmly on their board. Robinson and Flowers offers them two huge bookends if they can develop. A WR could be an option, but Foles isn't mobile and will need protection.

11-Minnesota-OLB-Randy Gregory-Nebraska
*Zimmer likes long, lean defenders who can run, and Gregory fits that mold. He pairs with Anthony Barr, and allows the team more versatility in their front 7.

12-Cleveland-WR-Amari Cooper-Alabama
*Needed playmaker at WR, gives their offense some juice.

13-New Orleans-DT-Danny Shelton-Washington
*The team is making an effort to improve on defense, and it starts right in the middle. Rob Ryan likes beasts up front, and Payton is from the Parcells tree. Shelton makes sense as he is a large player with a special motor.

14-Miami-CB-Trae Waynes-Michigan St.
*The Dolphins added Suh to make a play vs New England, and I believe they do so again in adding Waynes. Interior pass rush, and a press CB are a good combo. Also, he brings nice size which they lost when Finnegan retired. A WR makes sense here as well but a deep WR class.

15-San Francisco-OLB-Shane Ray-Missouri
*This is a value pick, and fits with how the 49ers like to draft. A front 7 pressure player who fits into the rotation of Smith, Brooks, and Lynch. Allows the team to make some decisions regarding Smith and Brooks moving forward.

16-Houston-WR-Devante Parker-Louisville
*The teams needs weapons on offense and they get one here.

17-San Diego-WR-Dorial Green Beckham-Oklahoma
*The Chargers have money invested in linemen, linebackers and defensive backs. However, they are lacking in playmakers for Rivers. DGB gives them a huge vertical target to open things up for Allen who struggled with bracket coverage last year.

18-Kansas City-C-Cameron Erving-Florida St.
*Andy Reid loves linemen, and Erving brings similar qualities as Hudson who just left for Oakland.

19-Cleveland-RB-Todd Gurley-Georgia
*Browns add another offensive piece. You can argue that he is the BPA if heathly, and they have a need. Current RB depth alows them to ease him back.

20-Philadelphia-DE-Arik Armstead-Oregon
*All Oregon jokes aside, Armstead is the best player available, play a premium position, and fills a need.

21-Cincinatti-CB-Quinten Rollins-Miami (OH)
*Lewis has never shied away from smaller, athletic CBs and Rollins has a pretty high ceiling. This team has very few glaring needs, so I believe they will look to add a developmental player vs a CB like Peters who has some issues.

22-Pittsburgh-CB-Marcus Peters-Washington
*This is a bit of a stretch as Pittsburgh doesn't really draft CBs high, but now may be the time. Physical player, good on an island, and has a short memory, I think Tomlin gets Peters to buy into the Steeler way.

23-Detroit-S-Landon Collins-Alabama
*A physical, underneath S who can blitz and comes in ready to play. the front 7 of Detroit brings enough pressure that his coverage limitations should be hidden.

24-Arizona-LB-Shaq Thompson-Washington
*I didn't want to put this here because Thompson is a player that I want us to pick, but I didn't see any other fits before this spot. Thompson offers athleticism to matchup with the athletes in the NFC West which hurt them in 2014.

25- Carolina-OT-DJ Humphries-Florida
*Carolina finally gets the OT it needs on the left side to keep Newton from taking so many shots.

26-Baltimore-DL-Malcolm Brown-Texas
*Physical pressence upfront that the Ravens like.

27-Dallas-DT-Eddie Goldman-Florida St.
*Dallas gets a nice interior player to push the pocket and help out it's DEs.

28-Denver-DT-Jordan Phillips-Oklahoma
*Inside pressence that the Broncos lost in FA. A load to handle inside when he decides to go.

29-Indianapolis-DE-Carl Davis-Iowa
*Another top 15 player when he decides to turn it on. Davis has the ability to play the 5-tech and then slide into a 3 or 1 in sub packages. He is a freak athlete who helps vs the run, and can create an interior pass rush.

30-Green Bay-LB-Eric Kendricks-UCLA
*Green Bay gets a 3 down LB who allows them to move Matthews around to rush from different spots.

31-New Orleans-OLB-Preston Smith-Miss. St.
*Another large, physical defensive player, this time on the edge. The team is unhappy with it's edge personnel overall, and Smith brings them the versatility that Rob Ryan likes.

32-New England-WR-Jaelen Strong-Arizona St.
*New England has missed on some WRs in the past, but Strong matches up with what Brady likes to do, and is a physical player.


***There it is. Comment as you will.

 

[juza76]

well built draft but i can say the thompson is a pick with ton of risk
ok he can play multiple positiions,but which one of them really well?
watching his tape i dont see a great tackler,i think coaches has to work a lot with him,before having impact on defense,so with 1st pick we need player that can be a starter from day 1

 

[WildBB]

Nice pick on Mariota.

NO way does Cooper slide to 12. I think the Jets add weapons and address the OL in the 2nd.

Same with Ray, if he falls to or past 12, we'd be stupid not to try and move up.

How is Thompson's football IQ? I know he's athletically gifted but he also ran a bit slow at the combine.

 

[Chopper0080]

Nice pick on Mariota.

NO way does Cooper slide to 12. I think the Jets add weapons and address the OL in the 2nd.

Same with Ray, if he falls to or past 12, we'd be stupid not to try and move up.

How is Thompson's football IQ? I know he's athletically gifted but he also ran a bit slow at the combine.

Re: WRs...this is another deep WR draft so I believe they will drop a bit. The Raiders could take Cooper at 4, but I think they will go for the taller White. The Jets have QB issues, and added Brandon Marshall to pair with Eric Decker, I think they go offensive line.

Re: Ray...there are a bunch of guys who do what he does, and he has been dinged up during the draft process. That along with a single year of top production leads to him falling a bit IMO. I believe Ray, Dupree, and Folwer are all pretty close. Top 15 isn't really a drop for an edge guy.

I realy like Shaq Thompson and I believe it speaks to his football IQ that he learned S, LB, and RB while at Washington.

 

[DVontel]

I would be fine with us picking either Shaq or Kendricks.

I don't see Rollins getting picked that early. He's good, but I see a lot of mocks having him as a 2nd-3rd rounder.

 

[WildBB]

I realy like Shaq Thompson and I believe it speaks to his football IQ that he learned S, LB, and RB while at Washington.

So where do you rate him among prospect OLB's covering TE's?? How much did he do it at UW?

 

[Chopper0080]

So where do you rate him among prospect OLB's covering TE's?? How much did he do it at UW?

From what I have seen from Thompson is that he is a very good zone coverage player who understands route combinations. He has the speed to run and cover the flat uinder control, and keep up with a wheel route. He has issues in man due to height. He isn't as tall as you would like him to be but 33" arms helps. He causes a bunch of turnovers, and knows how to finish which IMO speaks to his field awareness. I believe he is a nice mix between Dansby and Washington in terms of size, athleticism, and awareness.

 

[Chopper0080]

I would be fine with us picking either Shaq or Kendricks.

I don't see Rollins getting picked that early. He's good, but I see a lot of mocks having him as a 2nd-3rd rounder.

Rollins could go later, but it is a poor CB class, and he has tons of potential. He is scheme diverse, and is a potential type player. I believe he goes in the first because teams will feel he is more natural than Jalen Collins or PJ Williams.

 

[DoTheDew]

You think Gordon falls to the 2nd huh? Interesting.

 

[az jam]

Nice job, these are harder than it looks. Mariota to Washington is interesting and could happen. I think Mariota will be the story on draft day. Lots of speculation there. Also surprised that you don't have RB Gordon in Round 1 but who knows. I like WR Cooper more than WR White but Oakland's pick is always a surprise.

 

[kerouac9]

I think Shaq Thompson will be taken by the Browns--you're practicing some motivated reasoning. The Browns have a defensive head coach, and can develop someone next to Dansby who can take over for him fairly quickly--Dansby started his career with the Auburn Tigers playing safety.

You can still give us Eric Kendricks, though.

 

[Chopper0080]

I think Shaq Thompson will be taken by the Browns--you're practicing some motivated reasoning. The Browns have a defensive head coach, and can develop someone next to Dansby who can take over for him fairly quickly--Dansby started his career with the Auburn Tigers playing safety.

You can still give us Eric Kendricks, though.

I think their coach and GM understand they are on borrowed time. They signed McCown to get them competitive, but they don't have any weapons. My opinion is that they go heavy offensive skill positions so they can hopefully score their way to 8-8. That is my justification behind Cooper and Gurley in round 1. I didn't even look at defensive players for them. I do think they like Kirksey who they drafted last year out of Iowa and that could keep them from going ILB early.

 

[ARZCardinals]

good mock

They are hard to do when looking at all the teams

I can't see Gurley (RB) going in the first round with his knee. Marcus Lattimore taught us that RB's can be amazing before the injury and not ever see a single live down after.
If I was a GM I would NEVER draft any player who has knee issues in the first round. After the 1st round I take risks never in the 1st. You must take solid players that will be available on Sundays with your 1st picks.

 

[kerouac9]

I think their coach and GM understand they are on borrowed time. They signed McCown to get them competitive, but they don't have any weapons. My opinion is that they go heavy offensive skill positions so they can hopefully score their way to 8-8. That is my justification behind Cooper and Gurley in round 1. I didn't even look at defensive players for them. I do think they like Kirksey who they drafted last year out of Iowa and that could keep them from going ILB early.

They just drafted two good, young RBs last year. Isiah Crowell and Terrance West are both going to be better when they have a full season of Alex Mack starting in front of them.

Their WR corps is a problem, but not as big a problem as their rush defense--ranked 31st in the NFL in DVOA.

 

[Chopper0080]

Nice job, these are harder than it looks. Mariota to Washington is interesting and could happen. I think Mariota will be the story on draft day. Lots of speculation there. Also surprised that you don't have RB Gordon in Round 1 but who knows. I like WR Cooper more than WR White but Oakland's pick is always a surprise.

In order for a RB to be taken in round 1 I believe he has to be special/dynamic, and I don't see that out of Gordon.

I think Cooper is limited as a pro due to size. 6'1 WRs generally aren't taken in the top 10 which is why I have him later. White reminds me a bit of AJ Green.

 

[GiantCardFan]

Spending a lot of time on the Giants' board, the feeling is that they grab Cooper as BPA if he's there are 9 as you have him. If they go OT, no one is mentioning Clemmings, who if IIRC has work ethic issues. La'el Collins would be more likely.

 

[Chopper0080]

They just drafted two good, young RBs last year. Isiah Crowell and Terrance West are both going to be better when they have a full season of Alex Mack starting in front of them.

Their WR corps is a problem, but not as big a problem as their rush defense--ranked 31st in the NFL in DVOA.

I think it speaks volumes that neither of those players seized a consistent starting job, or even consistent carries. Also, I think Gurley is a special talent which the Browns need.

Kruger, Kirksey, Dansby and Mingo are the LB corp and I don't believe they are ready to give up on them. Maybe they upgrade the fron t 3, but they just re-signed Hughes, have Bryant from FA last year, and Phil Taylor. Again, I don't believe it is impossible to imagine the Browns adding a defensive lineman like Arik Armstead, but I personally believe they will go all in on offense and use Crowell/West to keep Gurley fresh.

 

[Chopper0080]

Spending a lot of time on the Giants' board, the feeling is that they grab Cooper as BPA if he's there are 9 as you have him. If they go OT, no one is mentioning Clemmings, who if IIRC has work ethic issues. La'el Collins would be more likely.

They could...I just believe after Pugh last year, they want a player who grades out as a OT either way, and not to an OG. Clemmings is raw and doesn't have any work ethic issues that I have heard of. The Penn St kid has work ethic concerns.

 

[Mitch]

I would be fine with us picking either Shaq or Kendricks.

I don't see Rollins getting picked that early. He's good, but I see a lot of mocks having him as a 2nd-3rd rounder.

Rollins may well be the best cover CB in this draft, imo. Plays the angles just the way you teach it and he jumps into the passing lanes on a dime.

 

[kerouac9]

I think it speaks volumes that neither of those players seized a consistent starting job, or even consistent carries. Also, I think Gurley is a special talent which the Browns need.

Kruger, Kirksey, Dansby and Mingo are the LB corp and I don't believe they are ready to give up on them. Maybe they upgrade the fron t 3, but they just re-signed Hughes, have Bryant from FA last year, and Phil Taylor. Again, I don't believe it is impossible to imagine the Browns adding a defensive lineman like Arik Armstead, but I personally believe they will go all in on offense and use Crowell/West to keep Gurley fresh.

Yeah. I didn't know they invested a 3rd rounder in Kirksey. Maybe they take a corner there? A safety? Hundley? How awesome would it be if they traded for Jay Cutler? What an amazing meeting room that would be.

 

[Chopper0080]

Yeah. I didn't know they invested a 3rd rounder in Kirksey. Maybe they take a corner there? A safety? Hundley? How awesome would it be if they traded for Jay Cutler? What an amazing meeting room that would be.

So...I looked at CB...they have Haden and just spent a first on Gilbert though they are not impressed by him.

S they have Gibson but could take Landon Collins I guess.

I don't see Hundley in round 1.

 

[Mitch]

So...I looked at CB...they have Haden and just spent a first on Gilbert though they are not impressed by him.

S they have Gibson but could take Landon Collins I guess.

I don't see Hundley in round 1.

They just signed CB Tramon Williams today. 3 year deal.

 

[Chopper0080]

Rollins may well be the best cover CB in this draft, imo. Plays the angles just the way you teach it and he jumps into the passing lanes on a dime.

I think it is prudent to change "may well be" to "may develop into" as he has played the position for one year and it shows. He was asked to essentially turn and run with guys which is great in college, but he is going to struggle more than most with the physical aspect and will need to catch onto advanced route concepts very quickly.

He has a long way to go, but Cincy doesn't have many huge needs. It is the perfect team to take a gamble on him and see if they can develop his raw tools.

 

[kerouac9]

So...I looked at CB...they have Haden and just spent a first on Gilbert though they are not impressed by him.

S they have Gibson but could take Landon Collins I guess.

I don't see Hundley in round 1.

Yeah. I think they're a prime candidate to trade up or trade out. Gilbert actually was a knucklehead off the field, which was why he apparently didn't play much. Also, they added Tremon Williams (GB)

Could they take 2 WRs? They added Brian Hartline. Their needs seem to be NT (although they added Randy Starks), FS (lost Jim Leonard), and maybe TE.

They should look up The Dude's number. He would look good in brown and orange.

 

[az jam]

They just signed CB Tramon Williams today. 3 year deal.

The numbers supported the argument that Williams got beat too often last season. According to ProFootballFocus.com, he allowed 10 touchdowns in 18 games last season, including the game-winner by Seattle's Jermaine Kearse in overtime of the NFC Championship Game. Opposing quarterbacks had a passer rating of 106.5 when targeting Williams last season, according to PFF. That number had never been higher than 85 in Williams' first seven seasons. He also allowed completions on 63.6 percent of the passes thrown his way, which also was the highest percentage of his career.